★ gold card = confirmed star pick: the model's strongest profile (top tier, great zone matchup, real season power) and he's officially in the lineup batting 1st–4th. Roughly 1 in 5 of these homers — that's what elite looks like in this game.
☆ dashed card = provisional: same profile, lineup not posted yet. Research these in the morning; by ~4:30 they turn solid gold (confirmed) or disappear. Only confirmed ★ picks count in the record.
The numbers
The big % — calibrated chance he homers tonight. 20% ≈ elite. Honest: when it says 16%, about 16% actually do.
🔥 hot — 10-day contact quality (barrels, exit velo), not a count of recent homers. Last 5 — hits-for-at-bats each game, oldest → newest; green = homered that game.
The tags
zone matchup! — the starter throws to exactly the spots this batter punishes. Best signal on the board.
ice cold — no HR in 2 weeks, contact way down (hidden by default). bad HR weather — cold/wind-in games really do suppress homers.
HR-prone SP (trap!) — bad pitcher, but picking batters because of a bad pitcher loses (5.6% hit rate). Tiebreaker, never the reason.
The record
The banner tracks every confirmed ★ pick since Aug 24 — hits and misses, no cherry-picking. Judge after ~150 picks, not one night.