HR Board

American Family Field · weather GREEN · 85°F, wind 12 mph · air density -6.0% (carry +15 ft) · Ballpark Pal HR +18%

HR carry by field today (typical park = 1.00; physics estimate from wind/temp/park). Best: LC 1.50

Tropicana Field · weather NEUTRAL · 73°F, wind 6 mph · air density -0.8% (carry +2 ft) · Ballpark Pal HR -3%

HR carry by field today (typical park = 1.00; physics estimate from wind/temp/park). Best: LF 0.95

PROVEN Four-Seam — 18.3% use · his #4 vs RHB

Four-Seam — 18.3% use · his #4 vs RHB

STANDOUT Sinker — 33.7% use · his #2 vs RHB

Limited exposure: the four-seam comes 18.3% of the time to righties — his #4 pitch to that side — the matchup depends on him getting it. His last 10 batted balls against it: 1 HR, 2 barrels (1 pulled), 30.0% hard, 70.0% in the air, 228-ft average. Season body of work vs the pitch type says he handles it: 3 HR, 20.7% barrels, 0.858 xSLG over 29 batted balls (vs LHP specifically). Chart caution: wOBA 0.369 vs xwOBA 0.345 — results running ahead of quality; you'd be buying at a peak. Batting #3.

Four-Seam — 18.3% to his side · his #4 pitch vs that handSide mix: FC 33% / CH 21% / ST 19%

One escape route — partial pitch-around riskCutter (32.8%): struggles — an escape routeChangeup (21.4%): handles itSweeper (19.1%): handles it

normal length — two, sometimes three looks

Park for his side: ×0.95Starter vs his hand: ≈1.13 HR/9 allowed

1 HR (0 in last 5) · 2 barrels (1 pulled) · hard 30.0% · air 70.0% · avg 228 ft

rolling 100 PA — xwOBA 0.345 · wOBA 0.369rolling 100 PA — xSLG 0.532 · SLG 0.506results running ahead of quality

Ballpark Pal HR: -3%Ballpark Pal stadium HR: —Ballpark Pal weather/air HR: —NEUTRAL · 73°F · wind 6 mph · air -0.8% dense (carry +2 ft) · best carry: LF ×0.95

Neutral conditions

Directional/spray reads are context (physics-sound, not yet validated predictors — see methodology §6); the RED veto is proven.

Limited exposure: the four-seam comes 18.3% of the time to righties — his #4 pitch to that side — the matchup depends on him getting it. His last 10 batted balls against it: 1 HR (1 in the last 5), 0 barrels, 40.0% hard, 50.0% in the air, 173-ft average. Season body of work vs the pitch type says he handles it: 3 HR, 4.3% barrels, 0.507 xSLG over 46 batted balls (vs LHP specifically). Batting #4.

Four-Seam — 18.3% to his side · his #4 pitch vs that handSide mix: FC 33% / CH 21% / ST 19%

One escape route — partial pitch-around riskCutter (32.8%): damages itChangeup (21.4%): damages itSweeper (19.1%): struggles — an escape route

normal length — two, sometimes three looks

Park for his side: ×0.95Starter vs his hand: ≈1.13 HR/9 allowed

1 HR (1 in last 5) · 0 barrels (0 pulled) · hard 40.0% · air 50.0% · avg 173 ft

results running ahead of quality

Ballpark Pal HR: -3%Ballpark Pal stadium HR: —Ballpark Pal weather/air HR: —NEUTRAL · 73°F · wind 6 mph · air -0.8% dense (carry +2 ft) · best carry: LF ×0.95

Neutral conditions

Directional/spray reads are context (physics-sound, not yet validated predictors — see methodology §6); the RED veto is proven.

Secondary exposure: the sinker comes 33.7% of the time to righties — his #2 pitch to that side, behind the lead offering — he'll still see it every at-bat. His last 10 batted balls against it: 1 HR, 1 barrels (1 pulled), 20.0% hard, 50.0% in the air, 164-ft average. Chart caution: wOBA 0.382 vs xwOBA 0.353 — results running ahead of quality; you'd be buying at a peak. Batting #4.

Sinker — 33.7% to his side · his #2 pitch vs that handSide mix: FC 35% / SI 34% / FF 26%

NO ESCAPE — he handles the rest of the arsenal; the vulnerable pitch cannot be shelvedCutter (34.9%): handles itFour-Seam (25.6%): handles it

goes deep (6.5+ IP L5) — a third look at the starter is likely

Park for his side: ×0.95Starter vs his hand: ≈0.77 HR/9 allowed

1 HR (0 in last 5) · 1 barrels (1 pulled) · hard 20.0% · air 50.0% · avg 164 ft

rolling 100 PA — xwOBA 0.353 · wOBA 0.382rolling 100 PA — xSLG 0.450 · SLG 0.427results running ahead of quality · rising ↑

Ballpark Pal HR: -3%Ballpark Pal stadium HR: —Ballpark Pal weather/air HR: —NEUTRAL · 73°F · wind 6 mph · air -0.8% dense (carry +2 ft) · best carry: LF ×0.95

Neutral conditions

Directional/spray reads are context (physics-sound, not yet validated predictors — see methodology §6); the RED veto is proven.

Limited exposure: the four-seam comes 18.3% of the time to righties — his #4 pitch to that side — the matchup depends on him getting it. His last 10 batted balls against it: 0 HR, 1 barrels, 50.0% hard, 70.0% in the air, 226-ft average. Season body of work vs the pitch type says he handles it: 4 HR, 7.8% barrels, 0.512 xSLG over 51 batted balls (vs LHP specifically). Charts: xwOBA 0.324 vs wOBA 0.279 — deserved production ahead of results and rising; you're buying before the box scores catch up. Batting #1.

Four-Seam — 18.3% to his side · his #4 pitch vs that handSide mix: FC 33% / CH 21% / ST 19%

PITCH-AROUND RISK — two escape routes; a flat mix means he may never see itCutter (32.8%): struggles — an escape routeChangeup (21.4%): struggles — an escape routeSweeper (19.1%): damages it

normal length — two, sometimes three looks

Park for his side: ×0.95Starter vs his hand: ≈1.13 HR/9 allowed

0 HR (0 in last 5) · 1 barrels (0 pulled) · hard 50.0% · air 70.0% · avg 226 ft

rolling 100 PA — xwOBA 0.324 · wOBA 0.279rolling 100 PA — xSLG 0.364 · SLG 0.293quality ahead of results ✓ · rising ↑

Ballpark Pal HR: -3%Ballpark Pal stadium HR: —Ballpark Pal weather/air HR: —NEUTRAL · 73°F · wind 6 mph · air -0.8% dense (carry +2 ft) · best carry: LF ×0.95

Neutral conditions

Directional/spray reads are context (physics-sound, not yet validated predictors — see methodology §6); the RED veto is proven.

Limited exposure: the four-seam comes 18.3% of the time to righties — his #4 pitch to that side — the matchup depends on him getting it. His last 10 batted balls against it: 1 HR, 0 barrels, 20.0% hard, 80.0% in the air, 226-ft average. That reaction is the weak link — he ranks on the model, not the pitch matchup. Batting #8.

Four-Seam — 18.3% to his side · his #4 pitch vs that handSide mix: FC 33% / CH 21% / ST 19%

PITCH-AROUND RISK — two escape routes; a flat mix means he may never see itCutter (32.8%): struggles — an escape routeChangeup (21.4%): struggles — an escape routeSweeper (19.1%): struggles — an escape route

normal length — two, sometimes three looks

Park for his side: ×0.95Starter vs his hand: ≈1.13 HR/9 allowed

1 HR (0 in last 5) · 0 barrels (0 pulled) · hard 20.0% · air 80.0% · avg 226 ft

results running ahead of quality

Ballpark Pal HR: -3%Ballpark Pal stadium HR: —Ballpark Pal weather/air HR: —NEUTRAL · 73°F · wind 6 mph · air -0.8% dense (carry +2 ft) · best carry: LF ×0.95

Neutral conditions

Directional/spray reads are context (physics-sound, not yet validated predictors — see methodology §6); the RED veto is proven.

Limited exposure: the four-seam comes 18.3% of the time to righties — his #4 pitch to that side — the matchup depends on him getting it. His last 10 batted balls against it: 0 HR, 0 barrels, 20.0% hard, 50.0% in the air, 142-ft average. That reaction is the weak link — he ranks on the model, not the pitch matchup. Season body of work vs the pitch type says he handles it: 1 HR, 3.6% barrels, 0.543 xSLG over 28 batted balls (vs LHP specifically). Batting #7.

Four-Seam — 18.3% to his side · his #4 pitch vs that handSide mix: FC 33% / CH 21% / ST 19%

One escape route — partial pitch-around riskCutter (32.8%): damages itChangeup (21.4%): handles itSweeper (19.1%): struggles — an escape route

normal length — two, sometimes three looks

Park for his side: ×0.95Starter vs his hand: ≈1.13 HR/9 allowed

0 HR (0 in last 5) · 0 barrels (0 pulled) · hard 20.0% · air 50.0% · avg 142 ft

results running ahead of quality

Ballpark Pal HR: -3%Ballpark Pal stadium HR: —Ballpark Pal weather/air HR: —NEUTRAL · 73°F · wind 6 mph · air -0.8% dense (carry +2 ft) · best carry: LF ×0.95

Neutral conditions

Directional/spray reads are context (physics-sound, not yet validated predictors — see methodology §6); the RED veto is proven.

VALUE TIER — 1 · bottom-half slots / part-timers with BOTH layers live (recent trail + season fit), ranked xISO-proven first (.160+ on 150+ AB hit 13.5% vs 10.3% in this cohort — backtested 9/6). Price plays: ~11% base at long odds — sprinkle singles, never slip legs.

Ryan Vilademodel 12% · Four-Seam 18%

Model: 12%Lineup slot: 4Season PA: 298Pitch: Four-SeamUsage: 18%Pitcher: Foster GriffinL10 vs pitch: 1 HR / 0 brlSeason xSLG vs pitch: 0.507Season HR vs pitch: 3Season sample vs pitch: 46 BBESeason pitcher hand: vs LHPxISO: 0.159 (263 AB, below .160 line)

MUST-THROW watch — 0 · no Edge batter faces a starter's #1 pitch to his side thrown 35%+ today.

Collision board: no batter cleared today (collision score above 0.6, not removed, targetable starter)

Research tab — the pages from Brandon Brown's walkthrough, built from this system's own data: hourly weather note, runs projection (crude, not backtested), both starters side by side with strikeout bars and team-K ranks, then every Target and batter-first name in the game with HR-per-game bars vs 0.5, zone maps, spray and the batted-ball log, filtered to the pitches he will see from that hand. Zone/spray/log use the Statcast caches; best HR price appears when the odds feed ran. Added 2026-09-23: rolling batting average over the last 5 and 10 days by pitcher hand, his average vs the exact mix the starter and every bullpen arm throw to his side, each pen arm's role / usual innings / entry inning / availability, and zone overlaps (where the pitcher locates laid over where the batter does damage) for the starter and every pen arm — all by hand and by pitcher, every stat block collapsible. Nothing here changes a rule or a score. Ballpark Pal's numbers (their model, labelled) sit next to ours on every card, starter panel and game header — HR chance vs our model %, matchup rates vs the starter, park split, lines, and their matchup model vs the late-inning arms for the top model bats; they are shown, never blended into a score.

How to read the zone grids

Grid orientation: catcher's view — zone 1 (top-left) is high and inside to a RHB, zone 3 (top-right) is high and inside to a LHB; rows run top (zones 1-3) to bottom (zones 7-9)

Cell colour: on the zone-overlap grids, the batter's xSLG vs that pitcher's hand in that zone — green = more damage, red = less, grey = no balls in play there

Cell number: on the zone-overlap grids, the share of the pitcher's pitches to that batter side landing in that zone (small print: the batter's balls in play · HR there)

Blue grids: pitcher location only — the share of his pitches to that side landing in each zone, darker = more (small print: pitch count)

Zone basis: starters and batters use Statcast's per-batter strike zone; relievers and the league comparison use a fixed 1.5-3.5 ft zone (the league file has no per-batter zone), so their grids are close but not exact

LEAKY Leaky pitch: the walkthrough's targetable pitch for that starter — 15%+ of his mix to the attack side over his last 5 starts and above the 2026 league average on 3+ of FB%, barrel%, barrel/FB, pull/FB, HR/BBE

Where it is marked: toward the attack side only (a batter on the other side gets no chip); a tinted table row is a leaky pitch; pen arms are not marked

ROOF?Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers · 5:00 PM ETYoshinobu Yamamoto / Logan Henderson · 9 names

ROOF?: 85°F at first pitch, wind 12 mph (gusts 22) out to center, 53% humidity, 3% precip · warm air carries · retractable roof — check whether it is open

Our runs projection (crude): Dodgers 4.31 · Brewers 3.87

Our projected total: 8.2 · Away win: 56% · Home win: 44%

Ballpark Pal (their model, next to our crude line above):

Source	LAD runs	MIL runs	Total	LAD win	MIL win	Park HR	Lineups	As of
Ballpark Pal	5.45	3.78	9.23	63.4%	36.6%	+18%	official	20:30 UTC

Starters side by side

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) vs Milwaukee Brewers · AWAY · DAY

Leaky pitches: Sinker (to RHB)

Role & workload

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 29 starts in 29 games, median 6.3 IP per start

Usage: usually 6.3 IP per start (26 batters, ~2.9 times through the order)

Usual IP per start (median): 6.3

Usual IP per start (mean): 6.62

Last 5 starts (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 7.0, 7.0, 6.0, 7.0

Batters per start (median): 26

Pitches per start (median): 97

Times through the order: ~2.9

Usually leaves after inning: 7.0 (median)

Opener: no

Games: 29 (starts 29)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Ballpark Pal projectiontheir model, shown next to ours

Projected innings: 6.7

Projected batters faced: 27.3

Projected strikeouts: 7.9

Strikeout lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Line	Over %	Fair odds
0.5	99.8%	-49900
1.5	99.2%	-12400
2.5	98.0%	-4900
3.5	95.7%	-2226
4.5	89.8%	-880
5.5	80.2%	-405
6.5	68.3%	-215
7.5	52.5%	-111
8.5	39.1%	+156
9.5	27.6%	+262
10.5	16.5%	+506
11.5	9.4%	+964

Projected HR allowed: 0.70

Projected runs allowed: 2.34

Win probability: 38.4%

Quality start probability: 61.7%

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Strikeouts by side

	K%	whiff%	L5 K%	L5 whiff%
all	26.5%	28.5%	30.7%	35.3%
vs LHB	26.0%	25.6%	25.0%	28.6%
vs RHB	27.1%	31.8%	37.3%	42.0%

HR/9 ladder by side

HR/9	Szn	L10	L5	L3	Last
vs LHB	0.97	0.81	1.12	0.00	0.00
vs RHB ◀	1.07	1.37	1.30	0.96	0.00

Tonight's splits (home/away · day/night)

Away split: 81.1 IP · 6 HR · 0.66 HR/9 · .480 OPS against · 76 K / 307 BF

Day split: 29.2 IP · 2 HR · 0.61 HR/9 · .446 OPS against · 27 K / 106 BF

Mix by side, last 5 starts

Mix 15%+ to LHB (last 5 starts): Curve 25%, Four-Seam 26%, Splitter 28%

Mix 15%+ to RHB (last 5 starts): Four-Seam 24%, Splitter 24%, Sinker 17% LEAKY

Attack side: RHB · recent HR/9 1.13

Location by side

Vs LHB — all pitches, last 5 starts

1.6%4 p

2.8%7 p

4.0%10 p

6.5%16 p

6.9%17 p

5.3%13 p

5.7%14 p

6.9%17 p

2.4%6 p

Pitches: 247

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 42%

Vs LHB — Curve (25% of his mix to LHB)

0.0%0 p

8.1%5 p

9.7%6 p

6.5%4 p

11.3%7 p

6.5%4 p

Pitches: 62

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 53%

Vs LHB — Four-Seam (26% of his mix to LHB)

6.3%4 p

4.8%3 p

7.9%5 p

4.8%3 p

1.6%1 p

4.8%3 p

0.0%0 p

Pitches: 63

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 40%

Vs LHB — Splitter (28% of his mix to LHB)

0.0%0 p

8.7%6 p

1.4%1 p

0.0%0 p

8.7%6 p

7.2%5 p

0.0%0 p

Pitches: 69

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 26%

Vs RHB — all pitches, last 5 starts

4.2%9 p

2.4%5 p

2.8%6 p

8.9%19 p

5.2%11 p

5.6%12 p

6.6%14 p

7.0%15 p

Pitches: 213

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 46%

Vs RHB — Four-Seam (24% of his mix to RHB)

13.7%7 p

3.9%2 p

2.0%1 p

7.8%4 p

11.8%6 p

2.0%1 p

5.9%3 p

2.0%1 p

Pitches: 51 — THIN

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 53%

Vs RHB — Splitter (24% of his mix to RHB)

0.0%0 p

3.9%2 p

0.0%0 p

11.8%6 p

3.9%2 p

5.9%3 p

Pitches: 51 — THIN

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 26%

Vs RHB — Sinker (17% of his mix to RHB) LEAKY

5.6%2 p

2.8%1 p

8.3%3 p

5.6%2 p

13.9%5 p

11.1%4 p

Pitches: 36 — THIN

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 64%

Strikeouts per start

Strikeouts per start — line 5.5 · L5 4/5 (80%) · L10 8/10 (80%) · L20 9/12 (75%)

NYY
7/19NYM
7/25BOS
8/1AZ
8/8MIL
8/14PIT
8/21ATL
8/27STL
9/2CIN
9/9CIN
9/15SD
9/23ATL
10/6

Milwaukee Brewers team K% ranks

Milwaukee Brewers team K% (rank 1 = strikes out most)

Season	21.9%	15 of 30
L15 days	20.4%	19 of 30
L30 days	24.6%	11 of 30
Home	21.7%	13 of 30
vs RHP	22.2%	11 of 30

Logan Henderson (RHP) vs Los Angeles Dodgers · HOME · DAY

Leaky pitches: Changeup (to LHB)

Role & workload

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 19 starts in 19 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Usage: usually 5.0 IP per start (21 batters, ~2.3 times through the order)

Usual IP per start (median): 5.0

Usual IP per start (mean): 5.44

Last 5 starts (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0

Batters per start (median): 21

Pitches per start (median): 85

Times through the order: ~2.3

Usually leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Opener: no

Games: 19 (starts 19)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Ballpark Pal projectiontheir model, shown next to ours

Projected innings: 4.9

Projected batters faced: 20.3

Projected strikeouts: 4.9

Strikeout lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Line	Over %	Fair odds
0.5	98.4%	-6150
1.5	93.9%	-1539
2.5	85.2%	-576
3.5	71.1%	-246
4.5	54.7%	-121
5.5	37.4%	+167
6.5	23.0%	+335
7.5	12.2%	+720
8.5	6.0%	+1567
9.5	2.5%	+3900
10.5	0.9%	+11011
11.5	0.2%	+49900

Projected HR allowed: 1.12

Projected runs allowed: 2.42

Win probability: 14.6%

Quality start probability: 24.6%

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Strikeouts by side

	K%	whiff%	L5 K%	L5 whiff%
all	29.1%	26.5%	25.9%	25.4%
vs LHB	29.2%	26.7%	29.7%	27.8%
vs RHB	29.0%	26.1%	20.5%	21.6%

HR/9 ladder by side

HR/9	Szn	L10	L5	L3	Last
vs LHB ◀	1.49	1.97	1.79	1.87	0.00
vs RHB	1.06	0.86	0.00	0.00	0.00

Tonight's splits (home/away · day/night)

Home split: 44.0 IP · 7 HR · 1.43 HR/9 · .541 OPS against · 50 K / 162 BF

Day split: 29.0 IP · 4 HR · 1.24 HR/9 · .578 OPS against · 32 K / 108 BF

Mix by side, last 5 starts

Mix 15%+ to LHB (last 5 starts): Changeup 43% LEAKY, Four-Seam 53%

Mix 15%+ to RHB (last 5 starts): Changeup 38%, Four-Seam 41%

Attack side: LHB · recent HR/9 1.83

Location by side

Vs LHB — all pitches, last 5 starts

5.8%16 p

4.3%12 p

5.4%15 p

6.5%18 p

7.6%21 p

5.1%14 p

3.6%10 p

6.9%19 p

2.5%7 p

Pitches: 276

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 48%

Vs LHB — Changeup (43% of his mix to LHB) LEAKY

2.5%3 p

1.7%2 p

8.4%10 p

3.4%4 p

1.7%2 p

5.0%6 p

6.7%8 p

2.5%3 p

Pitches: 119

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 34%

Vs LHB — Four-Seam (53% of his mix to LHB)

9.0%13 p

6.9%10 p

8.3%12 p

5.5%8 p

10.3%15 p

6.9%10 p

2.8%4 p

7.6%11 p

2.8%4 p

Pitches: 145

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 60%

Vs RHB — all pitches, last 5 starts

4.2%7 p

7.2%12 p

3.6%6 p

5.4%9 p

6.0%10 p

7.2%12 p

3.6%6 p

6.6%11 p

7.8%13 p

Pitches: 167

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 52%

Vs RHB — Changeup (38% of his mix to RHB)

0.0%0 p

4.8%3 p

0.0%0 p

1.6%1 p

4.8%3 p

9.5%6 p

11.1%7 p

Pitches: 63

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 44%

Vs RHB — Four-Seam (41% of his mix to RHB)

7.3%5 p

8.8%6 p

5.9%4 p

10.3%7 p

11.8%8 p

8.8%6 p

0.0%0 p

1.5%1 p

5.9%4 p

Pitches: 68

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 60%

Strikeouts per start

Strikeouts per start — line 5.5 · L5 3/5 (60%) · L10 7/10 (70%) · L20 9/12 (75%)

NYM
7/22SF
7/28PIT
8/4SD
8/10LAD
8/16ATL
8/22TEX
8/28CHC
9/3CHC
9/9PIT
9/16PHI
9/23SD
10/4

Los Angeles Dodgers team K% ranks

Los Angeles Dodgers team K% (rank 1 = strikes out most)

Season	20.5%	27 of 30
L15 days	21.7%	15 of 30
L30 days	19.6%	25 of 30
Away	20.1%	28 of 30
vs RHP	20.5%	26 of 30

Bullpens

Los Angeles Dodgers pen

Behind: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Closer: Tanner Scott

Pen HR/9 vs LHB: 0.57 (471 BF)

Pen HR/9 vs RHB: 0.86 (622 BF)

Pen barrel % vs LHB: 8.4

Pen barrel % vs RHB: 5.7

Available tonight: 3 of 6 relief arms

Flagged: Tanner Scott (THREW YESTERDAY); Evan Phillips (THREW YESTERDAY); Alex Vesia (THREW YESTERDAY)

Arms (leverage first, rotation arms last):

Edwin Díaz (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 9 saves in 24 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 7)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 24 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 6, 6, 9, 9

Games: 24 (starts 0)

Saves: 9

Holds: 0

Games finished: 16

Blown saves: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Tanner Scott (LHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 25 saves in 73 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 22)

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 73 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 8, 8, 8

Games: 73 (starts 0)

Saves: 25

Holds: 15

Games finished: 36

Blown saves: 4

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 9

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Evan Phillips (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 8 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 34 games)

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 10, 9, 5, 7

Games: 34 (starts 0)

Saves: 2

Holds: 8

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 17

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0

Alex Vesia (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 20 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 75 games)

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 5, 9, 8, 5, 6

Games: 75 (starts 0)

Saves: 3

Holds: 20

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 16

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 1.0

Brock Stewart (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 9 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 4 (~0.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 9 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 30 games)

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 30 (starts 1)

Saves: 1

Holds: 9

Games finished: 6

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3

Edgardo Henriquez (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 4 (~0.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 21 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 63 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 9, 8, 7, 6

Games: 63 (starts 1)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.7

Kris Bubic (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 9 starts in 15 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 9 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 15 (starts 9)

Saves: 0

Holds: 2

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7

Roki Sasaki (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 27 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 27 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0

Justin Wrobleski (LHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 22 starts in 28 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 22 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 22)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.7, 2.0

Blake Snell (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 10 starts in 10 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 10 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 10 (starts 10)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.7, 1.0, 4.0, 3.7

Tarik Skubal (LHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 28 starts in 28 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 28 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 91 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 28)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 81

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 5.0

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 14 starts in 14 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 14 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 14 (starts 14)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 4.0, 6.0, 6.3, 4.7

Milwaukee Brewers pen

Behind: Logan Henderson

Closer: Trevor Megill

Pen HR/9 vs LHB: 0.88 (958 BF)

Pen HR/9 vs RHB: 0.62 (1227 BF)

Pen barrel % vs LHB: 6.1

Pen barrel % vs RHB: 5.9

Available tonight: 3 of 7 relief arms

Flagged: Trevor Megill (THREW YESTERDAY); Abner Uribe (THREW YESTERDAY); Aaron Ashby (THREW YESTERDAY); DL Hall (THREW YESTERDAY)

Arms (leverage first, rotation arms last):

Trevor Megill (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 33 saves in 67 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 67 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 8, 9, 9, 9

Games: 67 (starts 0)

Saves: 33

Holds: 7

Games finished: 45

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 19

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Abner Uribe (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 25 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 66 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 8, 8, 6

Games: 66 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 25

Games finished: 18

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 15

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.3, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Aaron Ashby (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 16 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.3 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 10 (~1.1 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 44 (median)

Leaves after inning: 3.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 79 games)

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 5, 8, 5, 7

Games: 79 (starts 1)

Saves: 4

Holds: 16

Games finished: 11

Blown saves: 6

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 26

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 5.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0

Antonio Senzatela (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 59 games)

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 8, 7, 5, 5

Games: 59 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 11

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 8

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.7, 0.3, 0.7, 1.0

DL Hall (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 6 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 7 (~0.8 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 50 games)

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 6, 7, 6, 5

Games: 50 (starts 1)

Saves: 0

Holds: 6

Games finished: 13

Blown saves: 1

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 4

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7

JoJo Romero (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 23 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 7, 6, 6, 4

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 23

Games finished: 4

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.3, 1.7, 0.7, 1.7

Chad Patrick (RHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.3 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 6 starts among 57 appearances

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 4.7 IP (median of 6 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 78 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.3 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 10, 6, 3, 8

Games: 57 (starts 6)

Saves: 6

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.3, 1.0, 0.7, 1.3, 0.3

Shane Drohan (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 19 starts in 33 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 19 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 83 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 19)

Saves: 2

Holds: 3

Games finished: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.7, 0.7, 1.7, 2.7, 1.7

Kyle Harrison (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 24 starts in 28 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 24 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 88 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 24)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.0, 1.7, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0

Robert Gasser (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~1st — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 21 starts in 22 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 21 starts)

Batters per start: 21 (~2.3 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 87 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 22 (starts 21)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 4.7, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 4.0

Dustin May (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.2 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 5.2 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.2 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 84 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 2.3, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 94

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 3.0, 5.3, 4.0, 4.3

BATTER-FIRSTJackson Chourio (RHB, slot 1) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · model 17.5% LEAKY: Sinker

Model & price

Model HR %: 17.5%

Best HR price: +7000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +3775)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 16.4% (fair +510)

Our model HR %: 17.5%

Difference: Ballpark Pal −1.1 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.17

Projected PA (sim): 4.5

Ballpark Pal's starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 2.4% neutral

HR per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto, park-adjusted: 3.4%

vs his typical HR rate: −22%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: +10%

Strikeout per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 29.7%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +29%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.40

Stadium only: ×1.06

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.34

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	63.7%	-175
Hits	1.5	23.6%	+324
Total bases	0.5	63.7%	-175
Total bases	1.5	39.1%	+156
Total bases	2.5	25.6%	+291

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .778 OPS · 16 HR · 402 PA

Batter is: HOME · .933 OPS · 15 HR · 280 PA

Night: .906 OPS · 20 HR · 381 PA

Day: .700 OPS · 5 HR · 192 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.400	2 for 5	0	6	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.214	3 for 14	0	17	5
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.375	3 for 8	0	9	2	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.250	5 for 20	1	23	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 39 PA · .382 / .436 / .559 · ISO .176 · wOBA .428

Hits: 11 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 2 HR · 4 BB · 4 K

Contact: GB 45% · LD 23% · FB 32%

Quality: 4 barrels (13%) · hard-hit 48% · 91.3 mph on 31 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 25 PA · .318 / .360 / .318 · ISO .000 · wOBA .308

Hits: 7 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 0 HR · 2 BB · 3 K

Contact: GB 40% · LD 30% · FB 30%

Quality: 1 barrels (5%) · hard-hit 45% · 91.1 mph on 20 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Yamamoto (career): 2-11, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K · .182 BA, .455 SLG, .273 ISO · 2026: 21 pitches, 4 BBE, 2 hard-hit, 0 brl

Escape: NO ESCAPE

Wind: 85°F, 12 mph blowing out to center

vs Yamamoto's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-02 to 10-06)

Pitches to RHB in the window: 213

Mix to RHB (3%+ use): Four-Seam 24% · Splitter 24% · Sinker 17% LEAKY · Cutter 13% · Slider 13% · Curve 9%

vs Yamamoto's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .250

Pooled on those pitches: .273

At-bats: 308 (84 hits)

HR: 11

Weighted xBA: .250

Pooled SLG: .425

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (24%)	.278	27 for 97	.268	.536	6	21%	441
Splitter (24%)	.125	2 for 16	.220	.312	1	28%	51
Sinker (17%) LEAKY	.291	25 for 86	.259	.372	1	12%	349
Cutter (13%)	.297	11 for 37	.294	.486	2	29%	169
Slider (13%)	.246	15 for 61	.218	.279	0	31%	273
Curve (9%)	.364	4 for 11	.250	.636	1	32%	51

vs Yamamoto's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .175

Pooled on those pitches: .184

At-bats: 38 (7 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .210

Pooled SLG: .184

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 41%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (24%)	.167	2 for 12	.327	.167	32%	54
Splitter (24%)	.000	0 for 1	.000	.000	0%	2	THIN
Sinker (17%) LEAKY	.182	2 for 11	.223	.182	18%	52
Cutter (13%)	.333	1 for 3	.282	.333	11%	20	THIN
Slider (13%)	.111	1 for 9	.159	.111	62%	48	THIN
Curve (9%)	.500	1 for 2	.393	.500	0%	7	THIN

Four-Seam24% of his mix to RHB, last 5 starts · EXCEPTIONAL

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.726 · 17% barrels · 6 HR on 71 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .278 (97 AB) · 68% in the air · 94.9 mph · 54% hard-hit · 218 ft avg · 6 HR on 71 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .500 (4 AB) · 75% in the air · 98.7 mph · 75% hard-hit · 249 ft avg · 0 HR on 4 BBE

Last-10 check: YES — 4 of 5: hits it, in the air, hard, far

Zone overlap vs Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP, starter) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.2%18 BIP · 0 HR

2.4%22 BIP · 2 HR

2.8%15 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%35 BIP · 4 HR

8.9%40 BIP · 6 HR

5.2%33 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%18 BIP · 1 HR

6.6%30 BIP · 1 HR

7.0%20 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 213 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 46%

Batter sample: 231 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 295

Expected xSLG on his locations: .668

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.3

Overlap coverage: 46% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .539

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.129

Four-Seam (FF): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

13.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%6 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%8 BIP · 0 HR

2.0%6 BIP · 1 HR

7.8%12 BIP · 3 HR

11.8%6 BIP · 0 HR

2.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.9%4 BIP · 0 HR

2.0%2 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 51 pitches to RHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 50 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 71

Expected xSLG on his locations: .718

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.5

Overlap coverage: 49% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 1

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .524

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.194

THIN: pitcher location 51 pitches (< 60)

Splitter (FS): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%1 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%2 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

11.8%1 BIP · 1 HR

3.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.9%1 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 51 pitches to RHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 26%

Batter sample: 8 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 11

Expected xSLG on his locations: 1.994

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 46.2

Overlap coverage: 0% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .526

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +1.468

THIN: pitcher location 51 pitches (< 60); batter 8 BIP in zone (< 25)

Sinker (SI): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP LEAKY

5.6%4 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%6 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%0 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%12 BIP · 1 HR

8.3%9 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%1 BIP · 0 HR

13.9%9 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%8 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%0 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 36 pitches to RHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 64%

Batter sample: 49 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 67

Expected xSLG on his locations: .509

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.5

Overlap coverage: 44% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .557

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.048

THIN: pitcher location 36 pitches (< 60)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Los Angeles Dodgers — behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Pen HR/9 to RHB: 0.86 (622 BF)

Pen barrel % to RHB: 5.7

Pen K % to RHB: 30.4

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (6 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Tanner Scott

Closer rule also fires for: Tanner Scott (25 SV), Edwin Díaz (9 SV)

Available tonight: Edwin Díaz, Brock Stewart, Edgardo Henriquez

Not available / flagged: Tanner Scott (THREW YESTERDAY); Evan Phillips (THREW YESTERDAY); Alex Vesia (THREW YESTERDAY)

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Edwin Díaz, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Brock Stewart, Edgardo Henriquez

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 6 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.333	1 for 3	0	3	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.333	2 for 6	1	6	5	THIN

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Edwin Díaz, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Edwin Díaz (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 9 saves in 24 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 7)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 24 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.9 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 6, 6, 9, 9

Games: 24 (starts 0)

Saves: 9

Holds: 0

Games finished: 16

Blown saves: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 43 BF (40.6% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 2

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.78

Barrel% vs RHB: 9.1 (22 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 36.4

K% vs RHB: 34.9

AVG against vs RHB: .270 (37 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .432

xSLG against vs RHB: .331

Last 30 days vs RHB: 14 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .071 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Slider 50.9%, Four-Seam 49.1%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 57 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Slider 51% · Four-Seam 49%

vs Díaz's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .262

Pooled on those pitches: .266

At-bats: 158 (42 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .243

Pooled SLG: .437

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Slider (51%)	.246	15 for 61	.218	.279	0	31%	273
Four-Seam (49%)	.278	27 for 97	.268	.536	6	21%	441

History: vs Díaz (career): 1-3, 0 BB, 1 K · .333 BA, .333 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 6 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.1%

K per PA: 32.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −4

Batter percentile: 10

Pitcher percentile: 34

Edwin Díaz (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

7.0%18 BIP · 0 HR

2.3%22 BIP · 2 HR

2.9%15 BIP · 0 HR

8.2%35 BIP · 4 HR

12.9%40 BIP · 6 HR

10.5%33 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%18 BIP · 1 HR

4.1%30 BIP · 1 HR

5.3%20 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 171 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 57 pitches, below 60) (22 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 231 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 295

Expected xSLG on his locations: .707

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.0

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .537

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.170

Tanner Scott (LHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 25 saves in 73 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 22)

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 73 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.92 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 8, 8, 8

Games: 73 (starts 0)

Saves: 25

Holds: 15

Games finished: 36

Blown saves: 4

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 9

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 181 BF (67.8% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 5

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.06

Barrel% vs RHB: 7.5 (106 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 39.6

K% vs RHB: 32.0

AVG against vs RHB: .215 (163 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .380

xSLG against vs RHB: .367

Last 30 days vs RHB: 25 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 1.53 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .250 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Slider 51.7%, Four-Seam 48.3%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (107 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 62% · Slider 38%

vs Scott's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .427

Pooled on those pitches: .433

At-bats: 60 (26 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .309

Pooled SLG: .717

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (62%)	.444	20 for 45	.361	.756	3	29%	201
Slider (38%)	.400	6 for 15	.226	.600	1	34%	96

History: vs Scott (career): 1-2, 0 BB, 1 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 5 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.1%

K per PA: 35.5%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −7

Batter percentile: 3

Pitcher percentile: 40

Tanner Scott (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%3 BIP · 1 HR

5.6%4 BIP · 1 HR

2.8%13 BIP · 2 HR

10.3%19 BIP · 2 HR

13.1%15 BIP · 1 HR

6.5%8 BIP · 2 HR

5.6%19 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%8 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 107 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 95 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 122

Expected xSLG on his locations: .809

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 11.9

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 6

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .566

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.243

Evan Phillips (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 8 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 34 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.81 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 10, 9, 5, 7

Games: 34 (starts 0)

Saves: 2

Holds: 8

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 17

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 63 BF (55.8% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.82

Barrel% vs RHB: 12.2 (41 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 41.5

K% vs RHB: 30.2

AVG against vs RHB: .203 (59 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .407

xSLG against vs RHB: .452

Last 30 days vs RHB: 16 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .067 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sweeper 45.8%, Four-Seam 41.7%, Sinker 10.6%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (61 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sweeper 46% · Four-Seam 36% · Sinker 13% · Cutter 5%

vs Phillips's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .228

Pooled on those pitches: .262

At-bats: 275 (72 hits)

HR: 12

Weighted xBA: .251

Pooled SLG: .440

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sweeper (46%)	.164	9 for 55	.231	.345	3	30%	203
Four-Seam (36%)	.278	27 for 97	.268	.536	6	21%	441
Sinker (13%)	.291	25 for 86	.259	.372	1	12%	349
Cutter (5%)	.297	11 for 37	.294	.486	2	29%	169

History: vs Phillips (career): 2-2, 0 BB, 0 K · 1.000 BA, 1.000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 2 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.9%

K per PA: 30.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −5

Batter percentile: 6

Pitcher percentile: 42

Evan Phillips (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

1.6%18 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%22 BIP · 2 HR

8.2%15 BIP · 0 HR

4.9%35 BIP · 4 HR

4.9%40 BIP · 6 HR

8.2%33 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%18 BIP · 1 HR

8.2%30 BIP · 1 HR

9.8%20 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (7 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 231 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 295

Expected xSLG on his locations: .586

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.7

Overlap coverage: 49% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .532

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.054

Alex Vesia (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 20 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 75 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.81 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 5, 9, 8, 5, 6

Games: 75 (starts 0)

Saves: 3

Holds: 20

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 16

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 135 BF (54.7% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 2

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.57

Barrel% vs RHB: 5.6 (71 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 38.0

K% vs RHB: 31.9

AVG against vs RHB: .158 (114 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .254

xSLG against vs RHB: .238

Last 30 days vs RHB: 14 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .154 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 55.4%, Changeup 23.7%, Slider 21.0%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (71 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 65% · Slider 20% · Changeup 15%

vs Vesia's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .410

Pooled on those pitches: .369

At-bats: 103 (38 hits)

HR: 7

Weighted xBA: .315

Pooled SLG: .631

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (65%)	.444	20 for 45	.361	.756	3	29%	201
Slider (20%)	.400	6 for 15	.226	.600	1	34%	96
Changeup (15%)	.279	12 for 43	.235	.512	3	17%	130

History: vs Vesia (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.7%

K per PA: 30.6%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −3

Batter percentile: 13

Pitcher percentile: 37

Alex Vesia (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

5.6%6 BIP · 0 HR

7.0%3 BIP · 1 HR

4.2%4 BIP · 1 HR

11.3%13 BIP · 2 HR

12.7%19 BIP · 2 HR

8.4%15 BIP · 1 HR

2.8%8 BIP · 2 HR

1.4%19 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%8 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 71 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (9 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 95 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 122

Expected xSLG on his locations: .885

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 13.7

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .556

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.329

Brock Stewart (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 9 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 4 (~0.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 9 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 30 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.93 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 30 (starts 1)

Saves: 1

Holds: 9

Games finished: 6

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs RHB: 62 BF (57.9% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 2

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.23

Barrel% vs RHB: 4.5 (44 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 29.5

K% vs RHB: 25.8

AVG against vs RHB: .200 (60 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .333

xSLG against vs RHB: .328

Last 30 days vs RHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 2.94 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .154 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sweeper 40.2%, Four-Seam 33.5%, Sinker 26.3%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Sweeper 32.4, Four-Seam 36.6, Sinker 12.5

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 45 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sweeper 40% · Four-Seam 33% · Sinker 26%

vs Stewart's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .236

Pooled on those pitches: .256

At-bats: 238 (61 hits)

HR: 10

Weighted xBA: .251

Pooled SLG: .433

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sweeper (40%)	.164	9 for 55	.231	.345	3	30%	203
Four-Seam (33%)	.278	27 for 97	.268	.536	6	21%	441
Sinker (26%)	.291	25 for 86	.259	.372	1	12%	349

History: vs Stewart (career): 0-3, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Brock Stewart (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.4%18 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%22 BIP · 2 HR

6.2%15 BIP · 0 HR

7.6%35 BIP · 4 HR

7.6%40 BIP · 6 HR

9.8%33 BIP · 0 HR

2.7%18 BIP · 1 HR

5.8%30 BIP · 1 HR

7.1%20 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 225 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 45 pitches, below 60) (29 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 55%

Batter sample: 231 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 295

Expected xSLG on his locations: .648

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.9

Overlap coverage: 55% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .535

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.113

Edgardo Henriquez (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 4 (~0.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 21 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 63 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.99 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 9, 8, 7, 6

Games: 63 (starts 1)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 138 BF (54.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 0

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs RHB: 0.0 (87 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 27.6

K% vs RHB: 27.5

AVG against vs RHB: .161 (124 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .177

xSLG against vs RHB: .216

Last 30 days vs RHB: 11 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .200 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 47.6%, Slider 27.7%, Four-Seam 20.3%, Cutter 3.9%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 12.8, Slider 38.6, Four-Seam 35.6, Cutter 60.0

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 36 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sinker 48% · Slider 28% · Four-Seam 20% · Cutter 4%

vs Henriquez's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .276

Pooled on those pitches: .278

At-bats: 281 (78 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .251

Pooled SLG: .423

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sinker (48%)	.291	25 for 86	.259	.372	1	12%	349
Slider (28%)	.246	15 for 61	.218	.279	0	31%	273
Four-Seam (20%)	.278	27 for 97	.268	.536	6	21%	441
Cutter (4%)	.297	11 for 37	.294	.486	2	29%	169

History: vs Henriquez (career): 1-1, 0 BB, 0 K · 1.000 BA, 1.000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 2 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Edgardo Henriquez (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.6%18 BIP · 0 HR

5.2%22 BIP · 2 HR

2.5%15 BIP · 0 HR

8.0%35 BIP · 4 HR

8.5%40 BIP · 6 HR

6.0%33 BIP · 0 HR

4.1%18 BIP · 1 HR

5.8%30 BIP · 1 HR

5.4%20 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 515 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 36 pitches, below 60) (58 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 51%

Batter sample: 231 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 295

Expected xSLG on his locations: .702

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.0

Overlap coverage: 51% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .538

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.164

Kris Bubic (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 9 starts in 15 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 9 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 15 (starts 9)

Saves: 0

Holds: 2

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7

Sample vs RHB: 171 BF (74.3% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.67

Barrel% vs RHB: 8.3 (108 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 40.7

K% vs RHB: 24.0

AVG against vs RHB: .200 (150 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .307

xSLG against vs RHB: .389

Last 30 days vs RHB: 15 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .143 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 46.1%, Changeup 27.2%, Sweeper 14.8%, Sinker 7.2%, Slider 4.7%

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Roki Sasaki (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 27 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 27 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0

Sample vs RHB: 225 BF (42.3% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 11

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.87

Barrel% vs RHB: 11.9 (151 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 47.0

K% vs RHB: 21.8

AVG against vs RHB: .254 (201 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .512

xSLG against vs RHB: .420

Last 30 days vs RHB: 6 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .400 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 40.1%, Slider 28.0%, Splitter 25.3%, Forkball 6.7%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 12.4, Slider 38.0, Splitter 32.8, Forkball 33.3

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Justin Wrobleski (LHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 22 starts in 28 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 22 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 22)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.7, 2.0

Sample vs RHB: 422 BF (72.9% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 14

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.27

Barrel% vs RHB: 8.9 (315 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 46.7

K% vs RHB: 19.0

AVG against vs RHB: .239 (394 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .391

xSLG against vs RHB: .443

Last 30 days vs RHB: 22 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .238 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 51.6%, Slider 27.2%, Changeup 6.6%, Curve 6.2%, Sinker 4.1%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 18.5, Slider 19.7, Changeup 19.0, Curve 7.1, Sinker 6.7

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Blake Snell (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 10 starts in 10 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 10 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 10 (starts 10)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.7, 1.0, 4.0, 3.7

Sample vs RHB: 133 BF (68.9% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 0

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs RHB: 2.4 (82 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 20.7

K% vs RHB: 29.3

AVG against vs RHB: .198 (121 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .240

xSLG against vs RHB: .236

Last 30 days vs RHB: 26 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .292 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 48.5%, Curve 24.1%, Changeup 23.4%, Slider 4.1%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 22.2, Curve 45.8, Changeup 42.5

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tarik Skubal (LHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 28 starts in 28 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 28 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 91 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 28)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 81

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 5.0

Sample vs RHB: 504 BF (75.9% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 11

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.83

Barrel% vs RHB: 7.0 (327 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 35.2

K% vs RHB: 29.2

AVG against vs RHB: .200 (466 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .318

xSLG against vs RHB: .344

Last 30 days vs RHB: 83 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.92 (2 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .173

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 41.7%, Changeup 27.1%, Slider 15.2%, Sinker 11.2%, Curve 4.8%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 19.7, Changeup 45.1, Slider 25.4, Sinker 22.4, Curve 35.3

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 14 starts in 14 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 14 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 14 (starts 14)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 4.0, 6.0, 6.3, 4.7

Sample vs RHB: 120 BF (39.0% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.96

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.2 (64 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 35.9

K% vs RHB: 38.3

AVG against vs RHB: .165 (109 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .284

xSLG against vs RHB: .266

Last 30 days vs RHB: 42 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .118

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 30.8%, Slider 26.2%, Sinker 23.6%, Knuckle-Curve 15.5%, Curve 4.0%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 17.5, Slider 48.3, Sinker 20.4, Knuckle-Curve 56.9

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 1/5 (20%) · L10 2/10 (20%) · L20 3/20 (15%)

CIN
9/11CIN
9/12CIN
9/13PIT
9/15PIT
9/16PIT
9/17BAL
9/18BAL
9/19BAL
9/20PHI
9/22PHI
9/23PHI
9/24STL
9/25STL
9/26STL
9/27SD
10/3SD
10/4SD
10/6SD
10/7LAD
10/11

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on FF/FS/SI (149 BIP)

x0.59711 BIP · 0 HR

x0.69412 BIP · 0 HR

x0.1628 BIP · 0 HR

x0.87019 BIP · 2 HR

x0.96823 BIP · 3 HR

x0.6187 BIP · 0 HR

x0.68810 BIP · 1 HR

x0.52814 BIP · 0 HR

x0.5053 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where FF/FS/SI land vs RHB (861 pitches, 48% in zone)

5.6%

4.3%

2.4%

6.7%

7.0%

3.8%

6.2%

6.9%

4.8%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on FF/FS/SI: 18 BIP, 0 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/11	Phillips	FF	79.2	12	145	single
10/7	Rodriguez	SI	99.9	8	133	single
10/7	Buehler	SI	109.6	-3	33	field out
10/6	Pivetta	FF	103.2	25	381	field out
10/4	Miller	FF	109.5	8	152	single
10/3	Rodriguez	FF	102.8	17	319	field out
9/27	Pallante	SI	102.1	-1	42	single
9/26	Graceffo	SI	83.3	45	260	field out
9/22	McFarlane	SI	71.3	55	169	field out
9/19	Hoppe	SI	97.9	-9	12	field out
9/18	Kittredge	SI	109.4	-2	34	field out
9/18	Nunez	FF	103.9	13	274	field out

BATTER-FIRSTJake Bauers (LHB, slot 4) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · model 16.6%

Model & price

Model HR %: 16.6%

Best HR price: +8000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +4300)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 11.3% (fair +785)

Our model HR %: 16.6%

Difference: Ballpark Pal −5.3 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.12

Projected PA (sim): 4.2

Ballpark Pal's starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 1.8% neutral

HR per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto, park-adjusted: 2.4%

vs his typical HR rate: −32%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: −10%

Strikeout per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 40.6%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +33%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.33

Stadium only: ×1.01

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.32

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	52.0%	-108
Hits	1.5	13.2%	+658
Total bases	0.5	52.0%	-108
Total bases	1.5	27.9%	+258
Total bases	2.5	16.4%	+510

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .863 OPS · 18 HR · 418 PA

Batter is: HOME · .817 OPS · 15 HR · 285 PA

Night: .876 OPS · 17 HR · 383 PA

Day: .867 OPS · 9 HR · 195 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	1.000	1 for 1	3	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.125	1 for 8	11	5	THIN
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.500	2 for 4	8	2	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.267	4 for 15	21	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 43 PA · .229 / .349 / .257 · ISO .029 · wOBA .290

Hits: 7 1B · 1 2B · 0 3B · 0 HR · 7 BB · 18 K

Contact: GB 50% · LD 28% · FB 22%

Quality: 1 barrels (6%) · hard-hit 44% · 90.5 mph on 18 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 27 PA · .136 / .259 / .136 · ISO .000 · wOBA .204

Hits: 3 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 0 HR · 4 BB · 14 K

Contact: GB 44% · LD 33% · FB 22%

Quality: 1 barrels (11%) · hard-hit 11% · 83.8 mph on 9 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Yamamoto (career): 2-7 (9 PA), 1 BB, 1 K · .286 BA, .286 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 24 pitches, 3 BBE, 2 hard-hit, 0 brl

Escape: NO ESCAPE

Wind: 85°F, 12 mph blowing out to center

vs Yamamoto's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-02 to 10-06)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 247

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Splitter 28% · Four-Seam 26% · Curve 25% · Cutter 12% · Sinker 9%

vs Yamamoto's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .232

Pooled on those pitches: .274

At-bats: 230 (63 hits)

HR: 10

Weighted xBA: .238

Pooled SLG: .457

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Splitter (28%)	.318	7 for 22	.284	.364	0	42%	119
Four-Seam (26%)	.324	35 for 108	.302	.481	4	18%	543
Curve (25%)	.000	0 for 29	.076	.000	0	42%	156
Cutter (12%)	.250	6 for 24	.265	.500	2	34%	121
Sinker (9%)	.319	15 for 47	.331	.702	4	16%	238

vs Yamamoto's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .223

Pooled on those pitches: .300

At-bats: 20 (6 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .181

Pooled SLG: .400

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 26%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	Whiff	Seen	Note
Splitter (28%)	.000	0 for 1	.000	.000	50%	14	THIN
Four-Seam (26%)	.167	2 for 12	.257	.167	17%	74
Curve (25%)	.000	0 for 2	.026	.000	38%	20	THIN
Cutter (12%)	1.000	2 for 2	.570	1.000	33%	13	THIN
Sinker (9%)	.667	2 for 3	.447	1.333	0%	20	THIN

Four-Seam26% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · EXCEPTIONAL

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.674 · 13% barrels · 4 HR on 76 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .324 (108 AB) · 70% in the air · 94.3 mph · 59% hard-hit · 210 ft avg · 4 HR on 76 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .250 (8 AB) · 75% in the air · 84.2 mph · 25% hard-hit · 260 ft avg · 0 HR on 4 BBE

Last-10 check: YES — 3 of 5: hits it, in the air, far

Zone overlap vs Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

1.6%7 BIP · 1 HR

2.8%21 BIP · 4 HR

4.0%10 BIP · 3 HR

6.5%28 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%59 BIP · 7 HR

5.3%23 BIP · 1 HR

5.7%15 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%39 BIP · 3 HR

2.4%14 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 247 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 42%

Batter sample: 216 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 239

Expected xSLG on his locations: .723

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.9

Overlap coverage: 42% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .562

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.161

Curve (CU): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

8.1%1 BIP · 0 HR

9.7%4 BIP · 0 HR

6.5%1 BIP · 0 HR

11.3%0 BIP · 0 HR

11.3%3 BIP · 0 HR

6.5%0 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 62 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 11 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 12

Expected xSLG on his locations: .175

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 21% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .602

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.427

THIN: batter 11 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

6.3%3 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%11 BIP · 2 HR

4.8%4 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%8 BIP · 0 HR

7.9%14 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%14 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%1 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%9 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%7 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 63 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 71 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 76

Expected xSLG on his locations: .601

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.9

Overlap coverage: 38% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.031

Splitter (FS): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%2 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

8.7%2 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%6 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

8.7%2 BIP · 0 HR

7.2%3 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 69 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 26%

Batter sample: 15 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 15

Expected xSLG on his locations: .509

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 9% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .538

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.029

THIN: batter 15 BIP in zone (< 25)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Los Angeles Dodgers — behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 0.57 (471 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 8.4

Pen K % to LHB: 29.9

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (6 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Tanner Scott

Closer rule also fires for: Tanner Scott (25 SV), Edwin Díaz (9 SV)

Available tonight: Edwin Díaz, Brock Stewart, Edgardo Henriquez

Not available / flagged: Tanner Scott (THREW YESTERDAY); Evan Phillips (THREW YESTERDAY); Alex Vesia (THREW YESTERDAY)

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Edwin Díaz, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Brock Stewart, Edgardo Henriquez

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 6 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.333	1 for 3	0	5	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.429	3 for 7	0	10	5	THIN

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Edwin Díaz, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Edwin Díaz (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 9 saves in 24 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 7)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 24 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.9 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 6, 6, 9, 9

Games: 24 (starts 0)

Saves: 9

Holds: 0

Games finished: 16

Blown saves: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 63 BF (59.4% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.61

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.9 (38 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 50.0

K% vs LHB: 25.4

AVG against vs LHB: .315 (54 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .519

xSLG against vs LHB: .390

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .083 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 61.2%, Slider 38.4%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (65 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 60% · Slider 38%

vs Díaz's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .277

Pooled on those pitches: .281

At-bats: 167 (47 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .255

Pooled SLG: .485

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (60%)	.324	35 for 108	.302	.481	4	18%	543
Slider (38%)	.203	12 for 59	.183	.492	5	39%	243

History: vs Díaz (career): 0-3 (4 PA), 1 BB, 3 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 1.9%

K per PA: 40.7%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −5

Batter percentile: 12

Pitcher percentile: 40

Edwin Díaz (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

0.0%7 BIP · 1 HR

4.6%21 BIP · 4 HR

3.1%10 BIP · 3 HR

3.1%28 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%59 BIP · 7 HR

12.3%23 BIP · 1 HR

1.5%15 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%39 BIP · 3 HR

9.2%14 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 65 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 46%

Batter sample: 216 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 239

Expected xSLG on his locations: .747

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 8.1

Overlap coverage: 46% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 6

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .583

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.164

Tanner Scott (LHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 25 saves in 73 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 22)

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 73 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.92 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 8, 8, 8

Games: 73 (starts 0)

Saves: 25

Holds: 15

Games finished: 36

Blown saves: 4

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 9

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 86 BF (32.2% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.5 (55 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.1

K% vs LHB: 33.7

AVG against vs LHB: .198 (81 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .235

xSLG against vs LHB: .322

Last 30 days vs LHB: 14 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .154 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Slider 51.0%, Four-Seam 49.0%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 46 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Slider 51% · Four-Seam 49%

vs Scott's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .294

Pooled on those pitches: .297

At-bats: 64 (19 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .228

Pooled SLG: .625

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Slider (51%)	.280	7 for 25	.175	.360	0	33%	138
Four-Seam (49%)	.308	12 for 39	.283	.795	4	17%	195

History: vs Scott (career): 0-6 (7 PA), 0 BB, 5 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 15 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.4%

K per PA: 46.2%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −9

Batter percentile: 1

Pitcher percentile: 73

Tanner Scott (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

2.9%4 BIP · 1 HR

5.4%10 BIP · 1 HR

4.5%11 BIP · 0 HR

9.9%9 BIP · 2 HR

6.7%21 BIP · 3 HR

5.1%15 BIP · 0 HR

10.5%9 BIP · 0 HR

8.9%8 BIP · 0 HR

4.1%2 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 314 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 46 pitches, below 60) (56 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 58%

Batter sample: 89 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 102

Expected xSLG on his locations: .734

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 11.2

Overlap coverage: 54% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .505

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.229

Evan Phillips (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 8 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 34 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.81 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 10, 9, 5, 7

Games: 34 (starts 0)

Saves: 2

Holds: 8

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 17

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 50 BF (44.2% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.53

Barrel% vs LHB: 21.4 (28 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.7

K% vs LHB: 34.0

AVG against vs LHB: .250 (44 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .432

xSLG against vs LHB: .528

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 4.78 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .286 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 48.4%, Sweeper 27.1%, Cutter 20.3%, Sinker 4.2%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 38 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 48% · Sweeper 27% · Cutter 20% · Sinker 4%

vs Phillips's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .295

Pooled on those pitches: .308

At-bats: 201 (62 hits)

HR: 12

Weighted xBA: .279

Pooled SLG: .542

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (48%)	.324	35 for 108	.302	.481	4	18%	543
Sweeper (27%)	.273	6 for 22	.239	.545	2	32%	103
Cutter (20%)	.250	6 for 24	.265	.500	2	34%	121
Sinker (4%)	.319	15 for 47	.331	.702	4	16%	238

History: vs Phillips (career): 0-0 (1 PA), 1 BB, 0 K

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.0%

K per PA: 41.5%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −7

Batter percentile: 6

Pitcher percentile: 59

Evan Phillips (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.4%7 BIP · 1 HR

2.9%21 BIP · 4 HR

4.4%10 BIP · 3 HR

11.3%28 BIP · 1 HR

6.4%59 BIP · 7 HR

3.9%23 BIP · 1 HR

5.4%15 BIP · 1 HR

6.4%39 BIP · 3 HR

4.4%14 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 204 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 38 pitches, below 60) (28 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 216 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 239

Expected xSLG on his locations: .709

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.7

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .565

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.144

Alex Vesia (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 20 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 75 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.81 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 5, 9, 8, 5, 6

Games: 75 (starts 0)

Saves: 3

Holds: 20

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 16

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 112 BF (45.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.68

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.7 (65 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 32.3

K% vs LHB: 30.4

AVG against vs LHB: .131 (99 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .232

xSLG against vs LHB: .329

Last 30 days vs LHB: 17 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 56.5%, Slider 42.5%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (70 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 69% · Slider 29%

vs Vesia's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .300

Pooled on those pitches: .297

At-bats: 64 (19 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .251

Pooled SLG: .625

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (69%)	.308	12 for 39	.283	.795	4	17%	195
Slider (29%)	.280	7 for 25	.175	.360	0	33%	138

History: vs Vesia (career): 2-5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K · .400 BA, .600 SLG, .200 ISO · 2026: 18 pitches, 2 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.2%

K per PA: 40.2%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −7

Batter percentile: 5

Pitcher percentile: 70

Alex Vesia (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

10.0%4 BIP · 1 HR

12.9%10 BIP · 1 HR

4.3%11 BIP · 0 HR

12.9%9 BIP · 2 HR

17.1%21 BIP · 3 HR

2.9%15 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%9 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%8 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%2 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 70 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 64%

Batter sample: 89 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 102

Expected xSLG on his locations: .817

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 14.1

Overlap coverage: 64% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 2, 4, 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .536

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.281

Brock Stewart (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 9 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 4 (~0.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 9 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 30 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.93 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 30 (starts 1)

Saves: 1

Holds: 9

Games finished: 6

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 45 BF (42.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.85

Barrel% vs LHB: 3.7 (27 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.6

K% vs LHB: 22.2

AVG against vs LHB: .162 (37 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .324

xSLG against vs LHB: .240

Last 30 days vs LHB: 7 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .333 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 40.5%, Changeup 33.5%, Cutter 20.8%, Sweeper 5.2%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 23.5, Changeup 23.3, Cutter 15.0

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 31 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 40% · Changeup 34% · Cutter 21% · Sweeper 5%

vs Stewart's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .306

Pooled on those pitches: .309

At-bats: 191 (59 hits)

HR: 11

Weighted xBA: .280

Pooled SLG: .524

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (40%)	.324	35 for 108	.302	.481	4	18%	543
Changeup (34%)	.324	12 for 37	.270	.649	3	41%	260
Cutter (21%)	.250	6 for 24	.265	.500	2	34%	121
Sweeper (5%)	.273	6 for 22	.239	.545	2	32%	103

History: vs Stewart (career): 1-1, 0 BB, 0 K · 1.000 BA, 1.000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Brock Stewart (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.8%7 BIP · 1 HR

4.0%21 BIP · 4 HR

4.5%10 BIP · 3 HR

6.8%28 BIP · 1 HR

8.5%59 BIP · 7 HR

6.8%23 BIP · 1 HR

5.1%15 BIP · 1 HR

4.0%39 BIP · 3 HR

5.7%14 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 177 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 31 pitches, below 60) (24 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 216 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 239

Expected xSLG on his locations: .700

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.1

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.130

Edgardo Henriquez (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 4 (~0.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 21 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 63 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.99 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 9, 8, 7, 6

Games: 63 (starts 1)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.7

Sample vs LHB: 115 BF (45.5% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.33

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.1 (62 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.0

K% vs LHB: 30.4

AVG against vs LHB: .208 (96 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .344

xSLG against vs LHB: .286

Last 30 days vs LHB: 6 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .667 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 48.9%, Cutter 25.3%, Slider 15.5%, Curve 7.7%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 27.0, Cutter 30.1, Slider 38.9, Curve 30.0

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 49% · Cutter 25% · Slider 15% · Curve 8%

vs Henriquez's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .260

Pooled on those pitches: .241

At-bats: 220 (53 hits)

HR: 11

Weighted xBA: .255

Pooled SLG: .423

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (49%)	.324	35 for 108	.302	.481	4	18%	543
Cutter (25%)	.250	6 for 24	.265	.500	2	34%	121
Slider (15%)	.203	12 for 59	.183	.492	5	39%	243
Curve (8%)	.000	0 for 29	.076	.000	0	42%	156

History: vs Henriquez (career): 0-0 (1 PA), 1 BB, 0 K · 2026: 5 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Edgardo Henriquez (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.1%7 BIP · 1 HR

4.7%21 BIP · 4 HR

4.7%10 BIP · 3 HR

5.3%28 BIP · 1 HR

8.3%59 BIP · 7 HR

8.5%23 BIP · 1 HR

3.2%15 BIP · 1 HR

4.9%39 BIP · 3 HR

5.3%14 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 493 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches, below 60) (58 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 50%

Batter sample: 216 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 239

Expected xSLG on his locations: .722

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.3

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .573

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.149

Kris Bubic (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 9 starts in 15 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 9 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 15 (starts 9)

Saves: 0

Holds: 2

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 59 BF (25.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.65

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.8 (36 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 30.6

K% vs LHB: 25.4

AVG against vs LHB: .216 (51 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .373

xSLG against vs LHB: .319

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .429 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 29.8%, Four-Seam 25.7%, Sweeper 24.3%, Slider 19.7%

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Roki Sasaki (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 27 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 27 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 307 BF (57.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 11

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.37

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.1 (198 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.9

K% vs LHB: 24.4

AVG against vs LHB: .229 (271 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .413

xSLG against vs LHB: .383

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 43.2%, Splitter 31.7%, Slider 17.2%, Forkball 8.0%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 18.9, Splitter 34.8, Slider 38.5, Forkball 38.5

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Justin Wrobleski (LHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 22 starts in 28 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 22 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 22)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.7, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 157 BF (27.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 7

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.71

Barrel% vs LHB: 11.0 (109 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.8

K% vs LHB: 24.2

AVG against vs LHB: .241 (145 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .414

xSLG against vs LHB: .429

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .250 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 42.3%, Slider 30.5%, Sinker 19.6%, Sweeper 6.9%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 35.1, Slider 20.2, Sinker 6.7, Sweeper 11.1

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Blake Snell (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 10 starts in 10 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 10 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 10 (starts 10)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.7, 1.0, 4.0, 3.7

Sample vs LHB: 60 BF (31.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (28 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 10.7

K% vs LHB: 35.0

AVG against vs LHB: .213 (47 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .255

xSLG against vs LHB: .179

Last 30 days vs LHB: 12 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .250 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 49.4%, Slider 28.2%, Curve 19.2%, Changeup 3.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 14.3, Slider 54.3, Curve 27.8

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tarik Skubal (LHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 28 starts in 28 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 28 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 91 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 28)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 81

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 5.0

Sample vs LHB: 160 BF (24.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 5

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.20

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.0 (100 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 37.0

K% vs LHB: 33.1

AVG against vs LHB: .260 (154 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .422

xSLG against vs LHB: .324

Last 30 days vs LHB: 32 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 1.20 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .276

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 40.4%, Four-Seam 25.5%, Changeup 19.2%, Slider 8.1%, Curve 6.8%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 12.6, Four-Seam 37.4, Changeup 43.4, Slider 21.7, Curve 55.0

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 14 starts in 14 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 14 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 14 (starts 14)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 4.0, 6.0, 6.3, 4.7

Sample vs LHB: 188 BF (61.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.81

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.0 (110 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 40.9

K% vs LHB: 30.3

AVG against vs LHB: .172 (163 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .294

xSLG against vs LHB: .366

Last 30 days vs LHB: 47 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 1.63 (2 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .205

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 38.5%, Knuckle-Curve 24.8%, Sinker 19.1%, Slider 12.6%, Curve 5.1%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 14.0, Knuckle-Curve 45.3, Sinker 20.8, Slider 31.5, Curve 60.0

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 0/5 (0%) · L10 0/10 (0%) · L20 2/20 (10%)

CHC
9/7CHC
9/8CIN
9/11CIN
9/12CIN
9/13PIT
9/15PIT
9/16BAL
9/18BAL
9/20PHI
9/22PHI
9/23PHI
9/24STL
9/25STL
9/26STL
9/27SD
10/3SD
10/4SD
10/6SD
10/7LAD
10/11

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CU/FF/FS (103 BIP)

x0.3253 BIP · 0 HR

x0.90114 BIP · 2 HR

x0.4245 BIP · 0 HR

x0.64611 BIP · 0 HR

x0.45224 BIP · 1 HR

x0.51115 BIP · 0 HR

x0.4663 BIP · 0 HR

x0.71115 BIP · 1 HR

x0.8077 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where CU/FF/FS land vs LHB (1196 pitches, 45% in zone)

4.3%

3.0%

2.8%

7.4%

5.7%

2.7%

8.5%

8.3%

2.8%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CU/FF/FS: 12 BIP, 0 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
9/27	Pallante	FF	105.1	19	366	field out
9/27	Pallante	FF	75.6	20	221	single
9/25	McGreevy	FF	62.8	11	100	single
9/24	Painter	CU	79.3	-18	6	field out
9/23	Nola	FF	93.3	30	352	field out
9/13	Pagán	FF	72.0	22	180	force out
9/12	Antone	FF	78.9	6	95	field out
9/11	Garcia	FF	102.4	16	266	single
9/4	Johnson	CU	102.0	45	318	field out
9/3	Gausman	FF	86.0	7	112	field out
9/2	Webb	CU	95.2	5	93	field out
8/30	Rocker	FF	110.1	6	138	single

BATTER-FIRSTGarrett Mitchell (LHB, slot 6) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · model 11.6%

Model & price

Model HR %: 11.6%

Best HR price: +30000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +15600)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 10.7% (fair +835)

Our model HR %: 11.6%

Difference: Ballpark Pal −0.9 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.11

Projected PA (sim): 3.9

Ballpark Pal's starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 1.6% neutral

HR per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto, park-adjusted: 2.4%

vs his typical HR rate: −26%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: +7%

Strikeout per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 36.3%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +20%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.45

Stadium only: ×1.15

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.29

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	54.0%	-117
Hits	1.5	15.0%	+567
Total bases	0.5	54.0%	-117
Total bases	1.5	27.7%	+261
Total bases	2.5	16.0%	+525

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .802 OPS · 10 HR · 402 PA

Batter is: HOME · .843 OPS · 8 HR · 259 PA

Night: .747 OPS · 7 HR · 342 PA

Day: .814 OPS · 4 HR · 189 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.333	1 for 3	3	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.100	1 for 10	11	5
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.286	2 for 7	8	2	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.222	4 for 18	20	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 40 PA · .200 / .282 / .257 · ISO .057 · wOBA .274

Hits: 6 1B · 0 2B · 1 3B · 0 HR · 4 BB · 13 K

Contact: GB 78% · LD 13% · FB 9%

Quality: 1 barrels (4%) · hard-hit 48% · 86.4 mph on 23 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 27 PA · .167 / .259 / .167 · ISO .000 · wOBA .211

Hits: 4 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 0 HR · 3 BB · 11 K

Contact: GB 69% · LD 23% · FB 8%

Quality: 0 barrels (0%) · hard-hit 54% · 91.4 mph on 13 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Yamamoto (career): 1-5 (6 PA), 1 BB, 4 K · .200 BA, .200 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 32 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Escape: PARTIAL — escape: Splitter 28%

Wind: 85°F, 12 mph blowing out to center

vs Yamamoto's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-02 to 10-06)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 247

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Splitter 28% · Four-Seam 26% · Curve 25% · Cutter 12% · Sinker 9%

vs Yamamoto's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .205

Pooled on those pitches: .258

At-bats: 236 (61 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .229

Pooled SLG: .424

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Splitter (28%)	.050	1 for 20	.140	.050	0	49%	113
Four-Seam (26%)	.229	30 for 131	.246	.374	3	25%	656
Curve (25%)	.174	4 for 23	.213	.348	1	29%	101
Cutter (12%)	.414	12 for 29	.370	.862	2	41%	145
Sinker (9%)	.424	14 for 33	.314	.515	0	13%	139

vs Yamamoto's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .167

Pooled on those pitches: .333

At-bats: 21 (7 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .099

Pooled SLG: .381

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 26%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Splitter (28%)	.000	0 for 3	.001	.000	0	71%	15	THIN
Four-Seam (26%)	.455	5 for 11	.274	.545	0	16%	76
Curve (25%)	.000	0 for 1	.000	.000	0	50%	8	THIN
Cutter (12%)	—	no AB	—	—	—	33%	10	THIN
Sinker (9%)	.333	2 for 6	.177	.333	0	33%	19	THIN

Four-Seam26% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · EXCEPTIONAL

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.759 · 15% barrels · 3 HR on 75 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .229 (131 AB) · 52% in the air · 95.8 mph · 69% hard-hit · 173 ft avg · 3 HR on 75 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .400 (5 AB) · 33% in the air · 101.7 mph · 100% hard-hit · 133 ft avg · 0 HR on 3 BBE

Last-10 check: NO — 2 of 5: hits it, hard

Zone overlap vs Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

1.6%5 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%15 BIP · 1 HR

4.0%10 BIP · 0 HR

6.5%25 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%44 BIP · 3 HR

5.3%26 BIP · 0 HR

5.7%28 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%35 BIP · 2 HR

2.4%16 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 247 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 42%

Batter sample: 204 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 237

Expected xSLG on his locations: .740

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.6

Overlap coverage: 42% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .562

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.178

Curve (CU): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

8.1%2 BIP · 0 HR

9.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

6.5%0 BIP · 0 HR

11.3%2 BIP · 0 HR

11.3%6 BIP · 0 HR

6.5%1 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 62 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 12 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 14

Expected xSLG on his locations: .375

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 11% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .578

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.203

THIN: batter 12 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

6.3%3 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%9 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%6 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%9 BIP · 0 HR

7.9%14 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%11 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%7 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%4 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 63 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 68 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 75

Expected xSLG on his locations: .703

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.5

Overlap coverage: 40% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.133

Splitter (FS): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

8.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

8.7%0 BIP · 0 HR

7.2%4 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 69 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 26%

Batter sample: 9 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 13

Expected xSLG on his locations: .384

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 9% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .586

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.202

THIN: batter 9 BIP in zone (< 25)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Los Angeles Dodgers — behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 0.57 (471 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 8.4

Pen K % to LHB: 29.9

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (6 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Tanner Scott

Closer rule also fires for: Tanner Scott (25 SV), Edwin Díaz (9 SV)

Available tonight: Edwin Díaz, Brock Stewart, Edgardo Henriquez

Not available / flagged: Tanner Scott (THREW YESTERDAY); Evan Phillips (THREW YESTERDAY); Alex Vesia (THREW YESTERDAY)

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Edwin Díaz, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Brock Stewart, Edgardo Henriquez

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 6 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.250	1 for 4	0	5	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.375	3 for 8	0	9	5	THIN

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Edwin Díaz, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Edwin Díaz (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 9 saves in 24 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 7)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 24 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.9 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 6, 6, 9, 9

Games: 24 (starts 0)

Saves: 9

Holds: 0

Games finished: 16

Blown saves: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 63 BF (59.4% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.61

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.9 (38 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 50.0

K% vs LHB: 25.4

AVG against vs LHB: .315 (54 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .519

xSLG against vs LHB: .390

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .083 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 61.2%, Slider 38.4%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (65 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 60% · Slider 38%

vs Díaz's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .218

Pooled on those pitches: .221

At-bats: 181 (40 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .257

Pooled SLG: .381

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (60%)	.229	30 for 131	.246	.374	3	25%	656
Slider (38%)	.200	10 for 50	.276	.400	2	40%	206

History: vs Díaz (career): 1-2, 0 BB, 1 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 2 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 1.8%

K per PA: 42.2%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −8

Batter percentile: 7

Pitcher percentile: 79

Edwin Díaz (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

0.0%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.6%15 BIP · 1 HR

3.1%10 BIP · 0 HR

3.1%25 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%44 BIP · 3 HR

12.3%26 BIP · 0 HR

1.5%28 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%35 BIP · 2 HR

9.2%16 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 65 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 46%

Batter sample: 204 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 237

Expected xSLG on his locations: .804

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.7

Overlap coverage: 46% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 6

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .583

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.221

Tanner Scott (LHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 25 saves in 73 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 22)

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 73 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.92 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 8, 8, 8

Games: 73 (starts 0)

Saves: 25

Holds: 15

Games finished: 36

Blown saves: 4

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 9

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 86 BF (32.2% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.5 (55 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.1

K% vs LHB: 33.7

AVG against vs LHB: .198 (81 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .235

xSLG against vs LHB: .322

Last 30 days vs LHB: 14 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .154 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Slider 51.0%, Four-Seam 49.0%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 46 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Slider 51% · Four-Seam 49%

vs Scott's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .171

Pooled on those pitches: .169

At-bats: 65 (11 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .201

Pooled SLG: .277

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Slider (51%)	.179	5 for 28	.206	.357	0	51%	112
Four-Seam (49%)	.162	6 for 37	.197	.216	0	24%	129

History: vs Scott (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 2 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 1.8%

K per PA: 44.1%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −9

Batter percentile: 3

Pitcher percentile: 81

Tanner Scott (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

2.9%1 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.5%8 BIP · 0 HR

9.9%7 BIP · 0 HR

6.7%21 BIP · 1 HR

5.1%12 BIP · 0 HR

10.5%5 BIP · 0 HR

8.9%10 BIP · 0 HR

4.1%4 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 314 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 46 pitches, below 60) (56 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 58%

Batter sample: 73 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 81

Expected xSLG on his locations: .494

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.5

Overlap coverage: 55% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .505

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.011

Evan Phillips (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 8 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 34 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.81 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 10, 9, 5, 7

Games: 34 (starts 0)

Saves: 2

Holds: 8

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 17

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 50 BF (44.2% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.53

Barrel% vs LHB: 21.4 (28 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.7

K% vs LHB: 34.0

AVG against vs LHB: .250 (44 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .432

xSLG against vs LHB: .528

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 4.78 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .286 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 48.4%, Sweeper 27.1%, Cutter 20.3%, Sinker 4.2%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 38 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 48% · Sweeper 27% · Cutter 20% · Sinker 4%

vs Phillips's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .321

Pooled on those pitches: .303

At-bats: 218 (66 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .280

Pooled SLG: .491

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (48%)	.229	30 for 131	.246	.374	3	25%	656
Sweeper (27%)	.400	10 for 25	.269	.640	1	39%	83
Cutter (20%)	.414	12 for 29	.370	.862	2	41%	145
Sinker (4%)	.424	14 for 33	.314	.515	0	13%	139

History: vs Phillips (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.5%

K per PA: 39.0%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −8

Batter percentile: 10

Pitcher percentile: 72

Evan Phillips (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.4%5 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%15 BIP · 1 HR

4.4%10 BIP · 0 HR

11.3%25 BIP · 1 HR

6.4%44 BIP · 3 HR

3.9%26 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%28 BIP · 1 HR

6.4%35 BIP · 2 HR

4.4%16 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 204 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 38 pitches, below 60) (28 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 204 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 237

Expected xSLG on his locations: .723

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.2

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .565

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.158

Alex Vesia (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 20 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 75 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.81 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 5, 9, 8, 5, 6

Games: 75 (starts 0)

Saves: 3

Holds: 20

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 16

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 112 BF (45.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.68

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.7 (65 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 32.3

K% vs LHB: 30.4

AVG against vs LHB: .131 (99 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .232

xSLG against vs LHB: .329

Last 30 days vs LHB: 17 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 56.5%, Slider 42.5%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (70 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 69% · Slider 29%

vs Vesia's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .167

Pooled on those pitches: .169

At-bats: 65 (11 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .199

Pooled SLG: .277

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (69%)	.162	6 for 37	.197	.216	0	24%	129
Slider (29%)	.179	5 for 28	.206	.357	0	51%	112

History: vs Vesia (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 4 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.1%

K per PA: 40.4%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −7

Batter percentile: 17

Pitcher percentile: 67

Alex Vesia (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

10.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

12.9%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.3%8 BIP · 0 HR

12.9%7 BIP · 0 HR

17.1%21 BIP · 1 HR

2.9%12 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%5 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%10 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%4 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 70 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 64%

Batter sample: 73 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 81

Expected xSLG on his locations: .618

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 1.3

Overlap coverage: 54% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .536

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.082

Brock Stewart (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 9 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 4 (~0.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 9 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 30 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.93 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 30 (starts 1)

Saves: 1

Holds: 9

Games finished: 6

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 45 BF (42.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.85

Barrel% vs LHB: 3.7 (27 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.6

K% vs LHB: 22.2

AVG against vs LHB: .162 (37 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .324

xSLG against vs LHB: .240

Last 30 days vs LHB: 7 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .333 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 40.5%, Changeup 33.5%, Cutter 20.8%, Sweeper 5.2%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 23.5, Changeup 23.3, Cutter 15.0

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 31 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 40% · Changeup 34% · Cutter 21% · Sweeper 5%

vs Stewart's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .274

Pooled on those pitches: .268

At-bats: 239 (64 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .261

Pooled SLG: .439

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (40%)	.229	30 for 131	.246	.374	3	25%	656
Changeup (34%)	.222	12 for 54	.212	.278	0	50%	243
Cutter (21%)	.414	12 for 29	.370	.862	2	41%	145
Sweeper (5%)	.400	10 for 25	.269	.640	1	39%	83

History: vs Stewart: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Brock Stewart (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.8%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.0%15 BIP · 1 HR

4.5%10 BIP · 0 HR

6.8%25 BIP · 1 HR

8.5%44 BIP · 3 HR

6.8%26 BIP · 0 HR

5.1%28 BIP · 1 HR

4.0%35 BIP · 2 HR

5.7%16 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 177 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 31 pitches, below 60) (24 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 204 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 237

Expected xSLG on his locations: .732

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.9

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.162

Edgardo Henriquez (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 4 (~0.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 21 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 63 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.99 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 9, 8, 7, 6

Games: 63 (starts 1)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.7

Sample vs LHB: 115 BF (45.5% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.33

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.1 (62 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.0

K% vs LHB: 30.4

AVG against vs LHB: .208 (96 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .344

xSLG against vs LHB: .286

Last 30 days vs LHB: 6 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .667 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 48.9%, Cutter 25.3%, Slider 15.5%, Curve 7.7%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 27.0, Cutter 30.1, Slider 38.9, Curve 30.0

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 49% · Cutter 25% · Slider 15% · Curve 8%

vs Henriquez's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .268

Pooled on those pitches: .240

At-bats: 233 (56 hits)

HR: 8

Weighted xBA: .280

Pooled SLG: .438

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (49%)	.229	30 for 131	.246	.374	3	25%	656
Cutter (25%)	.414	12 for 29	.370	.862	2	41%	145
Slider (15%)	.200	10 for 50	.276	.400	2	40%	206
Curve (8%)	.174	4 for 23	.213	.348	1	29%	101

History: vs Henriquez: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Edgardo Henriquez (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.1%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%15 BIP · 1 HR

4.7%10 BIP · 0 HR

5.3%25 BIP · 1 HR

8.3%44 BIP · 3 HR

8.5%26 BIP · 0 HR

3.2%28 BIP · 1 HR

4.9%35 BIP · 2 HR

5.3%16 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 493 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches, below 60) (58 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 50%

Batter sample: 204 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 237

Expected xSLG on his locations: .749

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.0

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .573

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.176

Kris Bubic (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 9 starts in 15 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 9 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 15 (starts 9)

Saves: 0

Holds: 2

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 59 BF (25.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.65

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.8 (36 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 30.6

K% vs LHB: 25.4

AVG against vs LHB: .216 (51 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .373

xSLG against vs LHB: .319

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .429 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 29.8%, Four-Seam 25.7%, Sweeper 24.3%, Slider 19.7%

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Roki Sasaki (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 27 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 27 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 307 BF (57.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 11

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.37

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.1 (198 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.9

K% vs LHB: 24.4

AVG against vs LHB: .229 (271 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .413

xSLG against vs LHB: .383

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 43.2%, Splitter 31.7%, Slider 17.2%, Forkball 8.0%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 18.9, Splitter 34.8, Slider 38.5, Forkball 38.5

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Justin Wrobleski (LHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 22 starts in 28 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 22 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 22)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.7, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 157 BF (27.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 7

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.71

Barrel% vs LHB: 11.0 (109 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.8

K% vs LHB: 24.2

AVG against vs LHB: .241 (145 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .414

xSLG against vs LHB: .429

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .250 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 42.3%, Slider 30.5%, Sinker 19.6%, Sweeper 6.9%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 35.1, Slider 20.2, Sinker 6.7, Sweeper 11.1

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Blake Snell (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 10 starts in 10 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 10 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 10 (starts 10)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.7, 1.0, 4.0, 3.7

Sample vs LHB: 60 BF (31.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (28 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 10.7

K% vs LHB: 35.0

AVG against vs LHB: .213 (47 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .255

xSLG against vs LHB: .179

Last 30 days vs LHB: 12 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .250 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 49.4%, Slider 28.2%, Curve 19.2%, Changeup 3.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 14.3, Slider 54.3, Curve 27.8

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tarik Skubal (LHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 28 starts in 28 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 28 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 91 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 28)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 81

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 5.0

Sample vs LHB: 160 BF (24.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 5

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.20

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.0 (100 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 37.0

K% vs LHB: 33.1

AVG against vs LHB: .260 (154 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .422

xSLG against vs LHB: .324

Last 30 days vs LHB: 32 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 1.20 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .276

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 40.4%, Four-Seam 25.5%, Changeup 19.2%, Slider 8.1%, Curve 6.8%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 12.6, Four-Seam 37.4, Changeup 43.4, Slider 21.7, Curve 55.0

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 14 starts in 14 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 14 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 14 (starts 14)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 4.0, 6.0, 6.3, 4.7

Sample vs LHB: 188 BF (61.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.81

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.0 (110 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 40.9

K% vs LHB: 30.3

AVG against vs LHB: .172 (163 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .294

xSLG against vs LHB: .366

Last 30 days vs LHB: 47 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 1.63 (2 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .205

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 38.5%, Knuckle-Curve 24.8%, Sinker 19.1%, Slider 12.6%, Curve 5.1%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 14.0, Knuckle-Curve 45.3, Sinker 20.8, Slider 31.5, Curve 60.0

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 0/5 (0%) · L10 0/10 (0%) · L20 2/20 (10%)

CHC
9/9CIN
9/11CIN
9/12CIN
9/13PIT
9/15PIT
9/17BAL
9/18BAL
9/19BAL
9/20PHI
9/22PHI
9/23PHI
9/24STL
9/25STL
9/26STL
9/27SD
10/3SD
10/4SD
10/6SD
10/7LAD
10/11

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CU/FF/FS (102 BIP)

x0.1043 BIP · 0 HR

x1.0819 BIP · 1 HR

x0.4686 BIP · 0 HR

x0.82812 BIP · 0 HR

x0.65518 BIP · 1 HR

x0.66711 BIP · 0 HR

x0.5487 BIP · 0 HR

x0.76417 BIP · 1 HR

x0.8076 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where CU/FF/FS land vs LHB (1196 pitches, 45% in zone)

4.3%

3.0%

2.8%

7.4%

5.7%

2.7%

8.5%

8.3%

2.8%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CU/FF/FS: 14 BIP, 1 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/6	Pivetta	FF	95.5	54	253	field out
9/27	Pallante	FF	106.4	-8	14	single
9/25	McGreevy	FF	103.1	5	131	single
9/22	Wheeler	FF	99.2	21	337	field out
9/22	Wheeler	FF	58.0	35	168	single
9/20	Young	FF	109.4	6	131	single
9/15	Kelly	FF	105.6	9	229	double
9/12	Pagán	FS	82.1	72	104	field out
9/11	Mey	FF	105.7	24	420	home run
9/11	Mey	FF	110.5	2	59	single
9/11	Garcia	FF	90.9	19	294	field out
9/9	Rea	FF	67.5	-54	1	field out

BATTER-FIRSTBrice Turang (LHB, slot 2) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · model 11.0%

Model & price

Model HR %: 11.0%

Best HR price: +30000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +15600)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 12.6% (fair +694)

Our model HR %: 11.0%

Difference: Ballpark Pal +1.6 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.13

Projected PA (sim): 4.4

Ballpark Pal's starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 2.3% neutral

HR per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto, park-adjusted: 3.3%

vs his typical HR rate: −24%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: +10%

Strikeout per PA vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 32.8%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +24%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.45

Stadium only: ×1.13

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.33

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	58.0%	-138
Hits	1.5	19.6%	+410
Total bases	0.5	58.0%	-138
Total bases	1.5	31.4%	+218
Total bases	2.5	19.4%	+415

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .901 OPS · 18 HR · 478 PA

Batter is: HOME · .877 OPS · 10 HR · 346 PA

Night: .835 OPS · 14 HR · 446 PA

Day: .777 OPS · 7 HR · 234 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.333	1 for 3	0	3	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.222	2 for 9	0	10	5	THIN
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.286	2 for 7	1	9	2	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.167	3 for 18	1	22	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 44 PA · .282 / .349 / .590 · ISO .308 · wOBA .401

Hits: 5 1B · 3 2B · 0 3B · 3 HR · 4 BB · 8 K

Contact: GB 53% · LD 19% · FB 28%

Quality: 3 barrels (9%) · hard-hit 38% · 85.7 mph on 32 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 24 PA · .348 / .375 / .609 · ISO .261 · wOBA .419

Hits: 4 1B · 3 2B · 0 3B · 1 HR · 1 BB · 5 K

Contact: GB 50% · LD 22% · FB 28%

Quality: 1 barrels (6%) · hard-hit 39% · 89.7 mph on 18 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Yamamoto (career): 2-7 (8 PA), 1 BB, 1 K · .286 BA, .286 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 13 pitches, 3 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Escape: PARTIAL — escape: Splitter 28%

Wind: 85°F, 12 mph blowing out to center

vs Yamamoto's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-02 to 10-06)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 247

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Splitter 28% · Four-Seam 26% · Curve 25% · Cutter 12% · Sinker 9%

vs Yamamoto's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .298

Pooled on those pitches: .298

At-bats: 275 (82 hits)

HR: 13

Weighted xBA: .267

Pooled SLG: .524

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Splitter (28%)	.238	10 for 42	.244	.286	0	32%	148
Four-Seam (26%)	.267	36 for 135	.227	.437	5	20%	749
Curve (25%)	.303	10 for 33	.271	.515	2	23%	141
Cutter (12%)	.440	11 for 25	.365	.960	3	9%	131
Sinker (9%)	.375	15 for 40	.308	.800	3	12%	243

vs Yamamoto's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .433

Pooled on those pitches: .394

At-bats: 33 (13 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .273

Pooled SLG: .667

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 26%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Splitter (28%)	.500	2 for 4	.249	.500	0	67%	20	THIN
Four-Seam (26%)	.176	3 for 17	.155	.176	0	21%	93
Curve (25%)	.333	1 for 3	.156	.333	0	25%	18	THIN
Cutter (12%)	.750	3 for 4	.558	1.000	0	0%	16	THIN
Sinker (9%)	.800	4 for 5	.625	2.400	2	0%	23	THIN

Curve25% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · EXCEPTIONAL

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.748 · 10% barrels · 2 HR on 21 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .303 (33 AB) · 43% in the air · 95.5 mph · 57% hard-hit · 131 ft avg · 2 HR on 21 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .000 (1 AB) · 0% in the air · 0.0 mph · 0% hard-hit · 0 ft avg · 0 HR on 0 BBE

Last-10 check: NO RECENT DATA — under 2 balls in play on it in his last 10 games

Zone overlap vs Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

1.6%12 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%18 BIP · 0 HR

4.0%20 BIP · 2 HR

6.5%26 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%40 BIP · 5 HR

5.3%35 BIP · 4 HR

5.7%16 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%49 BIP · 2 HR

2.4%28 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 247 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 42%

Batter sample: 244 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 304

Expected xSLG on his locations: .680

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.4

Overlap coverage: 42% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .562

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.118

Curve (CU): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

8.1%0 BIP · 0 HR

9.7%7 BIP · 0 HR

6.5%1 BIP · 0 HR

11.3%0 BIP · 0 HR

11.3%7 BIP · 0 HR

6.5%3 BIP · 2 HR

Pitcher sample: 62 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 19 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 21

Expected xSLG on his locations: .750

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 12.7

Overlap coverage: 27% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .621

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.129

THIN: batter 19 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

6.3%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%14 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%12 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%5 BIP · 1 HR

7.9%9 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%18 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%1 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%3 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%6 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 63 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 73 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 86

Expected xSLG on his locations: .766

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.3

Overlap coverage: 38% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.196

Splitter (FS): Yoshinobu Yamamoto's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

8.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

8.7%8 BIP · 0 HR

7.2%3 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%2 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 69 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 26%

Batter sample: 19 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 29

Expected xSLG on his locations: .419

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 17% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .538

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.119

THIN: batter 19 BIP in zone (< 25)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Los Angeles Dodgers — behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 0.57 (471 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 8.4

Pen K % to LHB: 29.9

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (6 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Tanner Scott

Closer rule also fires for: Tanner Scott (25 SV), Edwin Díaz (9 SV)

Available tonight: Edwin Díaz, Brock Stewart, Edgardo Henriquez

Not available / flagged: Tanner Scott (THREW YESTERDAY); Evan Phillips (THREW YESTERDAY); Alex Vesia (THREW YESTERDAY)

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Edwin Díaz, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Brock Stewart, Edgardo Henriquez

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 6 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.250	1 for 4	1	6	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.111	1 for 9	1	12	5	THIN

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Edwin Díaz, Tanner Scott, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Edwin Díaz (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 9 saves in 24 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 7)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 24 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.9 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 6, 6, 9, 9

Games: 24 (starts 0)

Saves: 9

Holds: 0

Games finished: 16

Blown saves: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 63 BF (59.4% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.61

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.9 (38 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 50.0

K% vs LHB: 25.4

AVG against vs LHB: .315 (54 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .519

xSLG against vs LHB: .390

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .083 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 61.2%, Slider 38.4%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (65 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 60% · Slider 38%

vs Díaz's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .255

Pooled on those pitches: .258

At-bats: 194 (50 hits)

HR: 7

Weighted xBA: .234

Pooled SLG: .433

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (60%)	.267	36 for 135	.227	.437	5	20%	749
Slider (38%)	.237	14 for 59	.246	.424	2	20%	221

History: vs Díaz (career): 1-2 (3 PA), 1 BB, 1 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.3%

K per PA: 38.7%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −5

Batter percentile: 9

Pitcher percentile: 42

Edwin Díaz (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

0.0%12 BIP · 0 HR

4.6%18 BIP · 0 HR

3.1%20 BIP · 2 HR

3.1%26 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%40 BIP · 5 HR

12.3%35 BIP · 4 HR

1.5%16 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%49 BIP · 2 HR

9.2%28 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 65 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 46%

Batter sample: 244 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 304

Expected xSLG on his locations: .733

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.2

Overlap coverage: 46% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 6

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .583

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.150

Tanner Scott (LHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 25 saves in 73 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 22)

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 73 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.92 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 8, 8, 8

Games: 73 (starts 0)

Saves: 25

Holds: 15

Games finished: 36

Blown saves: 4

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 9

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 86 BF (32.2% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.5 (55 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.1

K% vs LHB: 33.7

AVG against vs LHB: .198 (81 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .235

xSLG against vs LHB: .322

Last 30 days vs LHB: 14 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .154 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Slider 51.0%, Four-Seam 49.0%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 46 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Slider 51% · Four-Seam 49%

vs Scott's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .171

Pooled on those pitches: .175

At-bats: 80 (14 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .190

Pooled SLG: .263

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Slider (51%)	.143	5 for 35	.188	.229	1	41%	164
Four-Seam (49%)	.200	9 for 45	.193	.289	1	18%	271

History: vs Scott (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 1 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.5%

K per PA: 42.9%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −8

Batter percentile: 1

Pitcher percentile: 63

Tanner Scott (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

2.9%4 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%11 BIP · 0 HR

4.5%6 BIP · 0 HR

9.9%9 BIP · 0 HR

6.7%25 BIP · 0 HR

5.1%20 BIP · 3 HR

10.5%8 BIP · 0 HR

8.9%12 BIP · 0 HR

4.1%10 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 314 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 46 pitches, below 60) (56 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 58%

Batter sample: 105 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 135

Expected xSLG on his locations: .465

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.0

Overlap coverage: 58% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .505

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.040

Evan Phillips (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 8 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 34 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.81 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 10, 9, 5, 7

Games: 34 (starts 0)

Saves: 2

Holds: 8

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 17

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 50 BF (44.2% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.53

Barrel% vs LHB: 21.4 (28 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.7

K% vs LHB: 34.0

AVG against vs LHB: .250 (44 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .432

xSLG against vs LHB: .528

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 4.78 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .286 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 48.4%, Sweeper 27.1%, Cutter 20.3%, Sinker 4.2%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 38 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 48% · Sweeper 27% · Cutter 20% · Sinker 4%

vs Phillips's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .302

Pooled on those pitches: .304

At-bats: 224 (68 hits)

HR: 14

Weighted xBA: .263

Pooled SLG: .589

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (48%)	.267	36 for 135	.227	.437	5	20%	749
Sweeper (27%)	.250	6 for 24	.244	.708	3	21%	117
Cutter (20%)	.440	11 for 25	.365	.960	3	9%	131
Sinker (4%)	.375	15 for 40	.308	.800	3	12%	243

History: vs Phillips: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.5%

K per PA: 37.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −7

Batter percentile: 5

Pitcher percentile: 57

Evan Phillips (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.4%12 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%18 BIP · 0 HR

4.4%20 BIP · 2 HR

11.3%26 BIP · 1 HR

6.4%40 BIP · 5 HR

3.9%35 BIP · 4 HR

5.4%16 BIP · 1 HR

6.4%49 BIP · 2 HR

4.4%28 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 204 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 38 pitches, below 60) (28 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 244 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 304

Expected xSLG on his locations: .653

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.5

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .565

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.088

Alex Vesia (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 20 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 75 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.81 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 5, 9, 8, 5, 6

Games: 75 (starts 0)

Saves: 3

Holds: 20

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 16

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 112 BF (45.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.68

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.7 (65 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 32.3

K% vs LHB: 30.4

AVG against vs LHB: .131 (99 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .232

xSLG against vs LHB: .329

Last 30 days vs LHB: 17 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 56.5%, Slider 42.5%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (70 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 69% · Slider 29%

vs Vesia's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .183

Pooled on those pitches: .175

At-bats: 80 (14 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .191

Pooled SLG: .263

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (69%)	.200	9 for 45	.193	.289	1	18%	271
Slider (29%)	.143	5 for 35	.188	.229	1	41%	164

History: vs Vesia (career): 0-4, 0 BB, 3 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 4.0%

K per PA: 36.4%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +1

Batter percentile: 26

Pitcher percentile: 21

Alex Vesia (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

10.0%4 BIP · 0 HR

12.9%11 BIP · 0 HR

4.3%6 BIP · 0 HR

12.9%9 BIP · 0 HR

17.1%25 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%20 BIP · 3 HR

1.4%8 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%12 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%10 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 70 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 64%

Batter sample: 105 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 135

Expected xSLG on his locations: .396

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.7

Overlap coverage: 64% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: 2, 4

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .536

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.140

Brock Stewart (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 9 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 4 (~0.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 9 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 30 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.93 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 30 (starts 1)

Saves: 1

Holds: 9

Games finished: 6

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 45 BF (42.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.85

Barrel% vs LHB: 3.7 (27 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.6

K% vs LHB: 22.2

AVG against vs LHB: .162 (37 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .324

xSLG against vs LHB: .240

Last 30 days vs LHB: 7 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .333 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 40.5%, Changeup 33.5%, Cutter 20.8%, Sweeper 5.2%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 23.5, Changeup 23.3, Cutter 15.0

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 31 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 40% · Changeup 34% · Cutter 21% · Sweeper 5%

vs Stewart's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .282

Pooled on those pitches: .269

At-bats: 242 (65 hits)

HR: 12

Weighted xBA: .260

Pooled SLG: .496

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (40%)	.267	36 for 135	.227	.437	5	20%	749
Changeup (34%)	.207	12 for 58	.238	.345	1	19%	290
Cutter (21%)	.440	11 for 25	.365	.960	3	9%	131
Sweeper (5%)	.250	6 for 24	.244	.708	3	21%	117

History: vs Stewart (career): 1-2, 0 BB, 1 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Brock Stewart (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.8%12 BIP · 0 HR

4.0%18 BIP · 0 HR

4.5%20 BIP · 2 HR

6.8%26 BIP · 1 HR

8.5%40 BIP · 5 HR

6.8%35 BIP · 4 HR

5.1%16 BIP · 1 HR

4.0%49 BIP · 2 HR

5.7%28 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 177 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 31 pitches, below 60) (24 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 244 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 304

Expected xSLG on his locations: .676

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.4

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.106

Edgardo Henriquez (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 4 (~0.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 21 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 63 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.99 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 9, 8, 7, 6

Games: 63 (starts 1)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.7

Sample vs LHB: 115 BF (45.5% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.33

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.1 (62 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.0

K% vs LHB: 30.4

AVG against vs LHB: .208 (96 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .344

xSLG against vs LHB: .286

Last 30 days vs LHB: 6 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .667 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 48.9%, Cutter 25.3%, Slider 15.5%, Curve 7.7%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 27.0, Cutter 30.1, Slider 38.9, Curve 30.0

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 49% · Cutter 25% · Slider 15% · Curve 8%

vs Henriquez's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .310

Pooled on those pitches: .282

At-bats: 252 (71 hits)

HR: 12

Weighted xBA: .269

Pooled SLG: .496

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (49%)	.267	36 for 135	.227	.437	5	20%	749
Cutter (25%)	.440	11 for 25	.365	.960	3	9%	131
Slider (15%)	.237	14 for 59	.246	.424	2	20%	221
Curve (8%)	.303	10 for 33	.271	.515	2	23%	141

History: vs Henriquez: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Edgardo Henriquez (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.1%12 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%18 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%20 BIP · 2 HR

5.3%26 BIP · 1 HR

8.3%40 BIP · 5 HR

8.5%35 BIP · 4 HR

3.2%16 BIP · 1 HR

4.9%49 BIP · 2 HR

5.3%28 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 493 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches, below 60) (58 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 50%

Batter sample: 244 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 304

Expected xSLG on his locations: .688

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.7

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .573

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.115

Kris Bubic (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 9 starts in 15 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 9 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 15 (starts 9)

Saves: 0

Holds: 2

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 59 BF (25.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.65

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.8 (36 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 30.6

K% vs LHB: 25.4

AVG against vs LHB: .216 (51 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .373

xSLG against vs LHB: .319

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .429 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 29.8%, Four-Seam 25.7%, Sweeper 24.3%, Slider 19.7%

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Roki Sasaki (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 27 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 27 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 307 BF (57.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 11

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.37

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.1 (198 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.9

K% vs LHB: 24.4

AVG against vs LHB: .229 (271 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .413

xSLG against vs LHB: .383

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 43.2%, Splitter 31.7%, Slider 17.2%, Forkball 8.0%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 18.9, Splitter 34.8, Slider 38.5, Forkball 38.5

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Justin Wrobleski (LHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 22 starts in 28 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 22 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 22)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.7, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 157 BF (27.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 7

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.71

Barrel% vs LHB: 11.0 (109 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.8

K% vs LHB: 24.2

AVG against vs LHB: .241 (145 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .414

xSLG against vs LHB: .429

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .250 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 42.3%, Slider 30.5%, Sinker 19.6%, Sweeper 6.9%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 35.1, Slider 20.2, Sinker 6.7, Sweeper 11.1

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Blake Snell (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 10 starts in 10 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 10 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 90 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 10 (starts 10)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-04 (8 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.7, 1.0, 4.0, 3.7

Sample vs LHB: 60 BF (31.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (28 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 10.7

K% vs LHB: 35.0

AVG against vs LHB: .213 (47 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .255

xSLG against vs LHB: .179

Last 30 days vs LHB: 12 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .250 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 49.4%, Slider 28.2%, Curve 19.2%, Changeup 3.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 14.3, Slider 54.3, Curve 27.8

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tarik Skubal (LHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 28 starts in 28 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 28 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 91 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 28)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 81

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 5.0

Sample vs LHB: 160 BF (24.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 5

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.20

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.0 (100 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 37.0

K% vs LHB: 33.1

AVG against vs LHB: .260 (154 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .422

xSLG against vs LHB: .324

Last 30 days vs LHB: 32 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 1.20 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .276

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 40.4%, Four-Seam 25.5%, Changeup 19.2%, Slider 8.1%, Curve 6.8%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 12.6, Four-Seam 37.4, Changeup 43.4, Slider 21.7, Curve 55.0

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 14 starts in 14 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 14 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 14 (starts 14)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 4.0, 6.0, 6.3, 4.7

Sample vs LHB: 188 BF (61.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.81

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.0 (110 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 40.9

K% vs LHB: 30.3

AVG against vs LHB: .172 (163 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .294

xSLG against vs LHB: .366

Last 30 days vs LHB: 47 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 1.63 (2 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .205

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 38.5%, Knuckle-Curve 24.8%, Sinker 19.1%, Slider 12.6%, Curve 5.1%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 14.0, Knuckle-Curve 45.3, Sinker 20.8, Slider 31.5, Curve 60.0

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 1/5 (20%) · L10 3/10 (30%) · L20 5/20 (25%)

CHC
9/9CIN
9/11CIN
9/12CIN
9/13PIT
9/15PIT
9/16PIT
9/17BAL
9/18BAL
9/20PHI
9/22PHI
9/23PHI
9/24STL
9/25STL
9/26STL
9/27SD
10/3SD
10/4SD
10/6SD
10/7LAD
10/11

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CU/FF/FS (136 BIP)

x0.4395 BIP · 0 HR

x0.62514 BIP · 0 HR

x0.53014 BIP · 1 HR

x1.0086 BIP · 1 HR

x0.82819 BIP · 1 HR

x0.74420 BIP · 1 HR

x0.3509 BIP · 0 HR

x0.63513 BIP · 0 HR

x1.20911 BIP · 3 HR

Pitcher location — where CU/FF/FS land vs LHB (1196 pitches, 45% in zone)

4.3%

3.0%

2.8%

7.4%

5.7%

2.7%

8.5%

8.3%

2.8%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CU/FF/FS: 16 BIP, 0 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/7	Musgrove	FF	94.6	29	342	field out
10/7	Miller	FF	96.7	1	61	single
10/6	Pivetta	FF	99.1	-8	17	field out
10/4	King	FF	88.0	6	103	field out
9/27	Pallante	FF	87.7	-5	22	field out
9/27	Pallante	FF	105.8	8	178	field out
9/27	Pallante	FF	85.2	-3	33	single
9/22	Wheeler	FS	75.7	0	36	single
9/18	Garcia	CU	91.7	20	255	single
9/16	Mlodzinski	CU	102.7	-19	7	field out
9/13	Pagán	FS	95.2	15	255	single
9/13	Burns	FF	89.7	-5	20	single

TARGETBATTER-FIRSTShohei Ohtani (LHB, slot 4) vs Logan Henderson · model 18.5% LEAKY: Changeup

Model & price

Model HR %: 18.5%

Best HR price: +2800 @ betrivers (2 books · median +1565)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 25.6% (fair +291)

Our model HR %: 18.5%

Difference: Ballpark Pal +7.1 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.29

Projected PA (sim): 4.5

Ballpark Pal's starter: Logan Henderson (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Logan Henderson: 5.3% neutral

HR per PA vs Logan Henderson, park-adjusted: 6.5%

vs his typical HR rate: +47%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: +81%

Strikeout per PA vs Logan Henderson: 33.3%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +17%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.23

Stadium only: ×1.02

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.21

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	64.9%	-185
Hits	1.5	24.4%	+310
Total bases	0.5	64.9%	-185
Total bases	1.5	43.2%	+131
Total bases	2.5	32.5%	+208

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .893 OPS · 18 HR · 414 PA

Batter is: AWAY · .850 OPS · 14 HR · 342 PA

Night: .872 OPS · 22 HR · 448 PA

Day: .934 OPS · 8 HR · 170 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.250	1 for 4	6	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.167	1 for 6	8	5	THIN
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.167	1 for 6	8	2	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.188	3 for 16	20	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 42 PA · .216 / .293 / .243 · ISO .027 · wOBA .270

Hits: 7 1B · 1 2B · 0 3B · 0 HR · 4 BB · 13 K

Contact: GB 35% · LD 22% · FB 35%

Quality: 4 barrels (17%) · hard-hit 61% · 93.8 mph on 23 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 24 PA · .182 / .250 / .227 · ISO .045 · wOBA .223

Hits: 3 1B · 1 2B · 0 3B · 0 HR · 2 BB · 9 K

Contact: GB 46% · LD 23% · FB 31%

Quality: 4 barrels (31%) · hard-hit 62% · 93.8 mph on 13 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Henderson (career): 2-5 (6 PA), 1 BB, 2 K · .400 BA, .400 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 30 pitches, 3 BBE, 3 hard-hit, 0 brl

Escape: NO ESCAPE

Wind: 85°F, 12 mph blowing out to center

vs Henderson's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-03 to 10-04)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 276

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Four-Seam 53% · Changeup 43% LEAKY · Cutter 4%

vs Henderson's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .271

Pooled on those pitches: .281

At-bats: 210 (59 hits)

HR: 8

Weighted xBA: .281

Pooled SLG: .467

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (53%)	.241	27 for 112	.282	.411	4	26%	606
Changeup (43%) LEAKY	.299	20 for 67	.275	.463	2	37%	279
Cutter (4%)	.387	12 for 31	.330	.677	2	22%	151

vs Henderson's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .567

Pooled on those pitches: .300

At-bats: 10 (3 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .262

Pooled SLG: .400

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 0%

Sample: THIN (under 20 AB)

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (53%)	.250	2 for 8	.285	.375	31%	43	THIN
Changeup (43%) LEAKY	1.000	1 for 1	.252	1.000	0%	2	THIN
Cutter (4%)	.000	0 for 1	.052	.000	0%	3	THIN

Changeup LEAKY43% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · TARGETABLE · TARGET (FIT)

Pitch allows (last 5 starts): 3 hits · 12% hard-hit · 6% barrels

Pitch fly-ball profile: 20% barrels/FB · 60% pull/FB · 31% FB · 1 HR on 16 BBE

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.687 · 13% barrels · 2 HR on 47 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .299 (67 AB) · 47% in the air · 91.0 mph · 45% hard-hit · 161 ft avg · 2 HR on 47 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: 1.000 (1 AB) · 0% in the air · 93.9 mph · 0% hard-hit · 15 ft avg · 0 HR on 1 BBE

Last-10 check: NO RECENT DATA — under 2 balls in play on it in his last 10 games

Zone overlap vs Henderson

Logan Henderson (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.8%11 BIP · 1 HR

4.3%18 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%10 BIP · 2 HR

6.5%25 BIP · 1 HR

7.6%28 BIP · 4 HR

5.1%24 BIP · 2 HR

3.6%21 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%29 BIP · 4 HR

2.5%15 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 276 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 48%

Batter sample: 181 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .893

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.8

Overlap coverage: 48% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .567

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.326

Changeup (CH): Logan Henderson's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP LEAKY

2.5%1 BIP · 0 HR

1.7%0 BIP · 0 HR

8.4%6 BIP · 0 HR

3.4%7 BIP · 1 HR

1.7%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%8 BIP · 0 HR

6.7%6 BIP · 1 HR

2.5%2 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 119 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 34%

Batter sample: 30 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 47

Expected xSLG on his locations: .813

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.6

Overlap coverage: 24% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .572

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.241

Four-Seam (FF): Logan Henderson's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

9.0%6 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%7 BIP · 0 HR

8.3%6 BIP · 2 HR

5.5%8 BIP · 0 HR

10.3%8 BIP · 0 HR

6.9%12 BIP · 1 HR

2.8%4 BIP · 0 HR

7.6%4 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%2 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 145 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 57 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 77

Expected xSLG on his locations: .992

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 8.0

Overlap coverage: 57% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .568

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.424

vs the bullpen

Pen: Milwaukee Brewers — behind Logan Henderson

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 0.88 (958 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 6.1

Pen K % to LHB: 24.6

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (7 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Trevor Megill

Available tonight: Antonio Senzatela, JoJo Romero, Chad Patrick

Not available / flagged: Trevor Megill (THREW YESTERDAY); Abner Uribe (THREW YESTERDAY); Aaron Ashby (THREW YESTERDAY); DL Hall (THREW YESTERDAY)

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela, DL Hall, JoJo Romero

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 6 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.000	0 for 2	0	2	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.200	2 for 10	0	12	5

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Trevor Megill (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 33 saves in 67 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 67 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.99 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 8, 9, 9, 9

Games: 67 (starts 0)

Saves: 33

Holds: 7

Games finished: 45

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 19

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 122 BF (47.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.31

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.5 (80 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 42.5

K% vs LHB: 27.0

AVG against vs LHB: .164 (110 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .200

xSLG against vs LHB: .324

Last 30 days vs LHB: 22 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .211 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 67.9%, Knuckle-Curve 32.1%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (79 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 68% · Knuckle-Curve 32%

vs Megill's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .255

Pooled on those pitches: .244

At-bats: 119 (29 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .355

Pooled SLG: .403

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 68%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (68%)	.241	27 for 112	.282	.411	4	26%	606
Knuckle-Curve (32%)	.286	2 for 7	.514	.286	0	29%	39	THIN

History: vs Megill (career): 2-4 (5 PA), 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K · .500 BA, 1.250 SLG, .750 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.6%

K per PA: 35.7%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −8

Batter percentile: 2

Pitcher percentile: 39

Trevor Megill (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

3.8%11 BIP · 1 HR

5.1%18 BIP · 0 HR

3.8%10 BIP · 2 HR

6.3%25 BIP · 1 HR

12.7%28 BIP · 4 HR

6.3%24 BIP · 2 HR

5.1%21 BIP · 1 HR

7.6%29 BIP · 4 HR

8.9%15 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 79 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 181 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .916

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.4

Overlap coverage: 60% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .585

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.331

Abner Uribe (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 25 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 66 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.97 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 8, 8, 6

Games: 66 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 25

Games finished: 18

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 15

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.3, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 117 BF (45.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.65

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (85 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 31.8

K% vs LHB: 19.7

AVG against vs LHB: .269 (108 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .343

xSLG against vs LHB: .341

Last 30 days vs LHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .368 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 67.8%, Slider 31.8%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (63 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 71% · Slider 29%

vs Uribe's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .345

Pooled on those pitches: .314

At-bats: 70 (22 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .362

Pooled SLG: .643

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (71%)	.382	13 for 34	.389	.765	3	17%	140
Slider (29%)	.250	9 for 36	.295	.528	2	38%	163

History: vs Uribe (career): 1-2 (3 PA), 1 BB, 0 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 4 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.6%

K per PA: 27.3%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +2

Batter percentile: 34

Pitcher percentile: 18

Abner Uribe (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

1.6%11 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%18 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%10 BIP · 2 HR

12.7%25 BIP · 1 HR

19.1%28 BIP · 4 HR

3.2%24 BIP · 2 HR

6.3%21 BIP · 1 HR

6.3%29 BIP · 4 HR

7.9%15 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 63 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (12 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 57%

Batter sample: 181 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .970

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.4

Overlap coverage: 57% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 4, 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .602

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.368

Aaron Ashby (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 16 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.3 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 10 (~1.1 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 44 (median)

Leaves after inning: 3.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 79 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.23 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 5, 8, 5, 7

Games: 79 (starts 1)

Saves: 4

Holds: 16

Games finished: 11

Blown saves: 6

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 26

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 5.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 151 BF (36.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.51

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.3 (88 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 31.8

K% vs LHB: 33.8

AVG against vs LHB: .210 (138 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .290

xSLG against vs LHB: .246

Last 30 days vs LHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .105 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 58.4%, Slider 27.2%, Curve 12.0%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (87 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 70% · Curve 17% · Slider 10%

vs Ashby's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .321

Pooled on those pitches: .268

At-bats: 82 (22 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .298

Pooled SLG: .500

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 82%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (70%)	.395	15 for 38	.338	.816	5	24%	175
Curve (17%)	.111	1 for 9	.190	.111	0	39%	43	THIN
Slider (10%)	.171	6 for 35	.210	.257	0	40%	148

History: vs Ashby (career): 4-7 (10 PA), 1 3B, 2 BB, 1 K · .571 BA, .857 SLG, .286 ISO · 2026: 14 pitches, 3 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.6%

K per PA: 30.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −3

Batter percentile: 17

Pitcher percentile: 22

Aaron Ashby (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

1.1%2 BIP · 0 HR

3.5%17 BIP · 2 HR

6.9%2 BIP · 1 HR

5.8%13 BIP · 0 HR

8.1%20 BIP · 3 HR

8.1%10 BIP · 1 HR

8.1%11 BIP · 0 HR

4.6%20 BIP · 2 HR

8.1%6 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 87 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 54%

Batter sample: 101 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 139

Expected xSLG on his locations: .968

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 14.2

Overlap coverage: 46% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .505

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.463

Antonio Senzatela (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 59 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.27 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 8, 7, 5, 5

Games: 59 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 11

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 8

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.7, 0.3, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 150 BF (47.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.02

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.6 (105 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.2

K% vs LHB: 20.7

AVG against vs LHB: .256 (133 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .376

xSLG against vs LHB: .367

Last 30 days vs LHB: 9 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .375 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 34.5%, Four-Seam 33.6%, Sinker 14.8%, Curve 10.9%, Changeup 5.4%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 40 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Cutter 34% · Four-Seam 34% · Sinker 15% · Curve 11% · Changeup 5%

vs Senzatela's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .308

Pooled on those pitches: .281

At-bats: 274 (77 hits)

HR: 12

Weighted xBA: .306

Pooled SLG: .482

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Cutter (34%)	.387	12 for 31	.330	.677	2	22%	151
Four-Seam (34%)	.241	27 for 112	.282	.411	4	26%	606
Sinker (15%)	.382	13 for 34	.389	.765	3	17%	140
Curve (11%)	.167	5 for 30	.211	.267	1	38%	136
Changeup (5%)	.299	20 for 67	.275	.463	2	37%	279

History: vs Senzatela (career): 5-11 (13 PA), 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K · .455 BA, .727 SLG, .273 ISO · 2026: 9 pitches, 2 BBE, 2 hard-hit, 1 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.4%

K per PA: 23.4%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +10

Batter percentile: 88

Pitcher percentile: 27

Antonio Senzatela (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.0%11 BIP · 1 HR

8.8%18 BIP · 0 HR

6.1%10 BIP · 2 HR

7.6%25 BIP · 1 HR

7.5%28 BIP · 4 HR

6.6%24 BIP · 2 HR

3.8%21 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%29 BIP · 4 HR

3.0%15 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 603 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 40 pitches, below 60) (55 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 181 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .850

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 8.7

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .563

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.287

DL Hall (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 6 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 7 (~0.8 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 50 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.29 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 6, 7, 6, 5

Games: 50 (starts 1)

Saves: 0

Holds: 6

Games finished: 13

Blown saves: 1

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 4

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 103 BF (40.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.37

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.8 (52 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 23.1

K% vs LHB: 30.1

AVG against vs LHB: .118 (85 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .176

xSLG against vs LHB: .252

Last 30 days vs LHB: 22 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 1.74 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .150 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 38.8%, Slider 20.7%, Sweeper 19.0%, Four-Seam 14.5%, Curve 3.6%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (82 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 50% · Slider 27% · Sweeper 10% · Cutter 6% · Curve 4% · Four-Seam 4%

vs Hall's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .302

Pooled on those pitches: .259

At-bats: 170 (44 hits)

HR: 11

Weighted xBA: .289

Pooled SLG: .500

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 96%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (50%)	.395	15 for 38	.338	.816	5	24%	175
Slider (27%)	.171	6 for 35	.210	.257	0	40%	148
Sweeper (10%)	.308	8 for 26	.261	.500	1	34%	89
Cutter (6%)	.286	4 for 14	.413	.786	2	21%	61
Curve (4%)	.111	1 for 9	.190	.111	0	39%	43	THIN
Four-Seam (4%)	.208	10 for 48	.175	.417	3	18%	206

History: vs Hall (career): 1-2 (3 PA), 1 BB, 0 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 5 pitches, 2 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

DL Hall (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.7%2 BIP · 0 HR

6.1%17 BIP · 2 HR

3.7%2 BIP · 1 HR

4.9%13 BIP · 0 HR

13.4%20 BIP · 3 HR

6.1%10 BIP · 1 HR

7.3%11 BIP · 0 HR

11.0%20 BIP · 2 HR

7.3%6 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 82 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 63%

Batter sample: 101 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 139

Expected xSLG on his locations: .874

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 11.8

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .525

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.349

JoJo Romero (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 23 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.03 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 7, 6, 6, 4

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 23

Games finished: 4

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.3, 1.7, 0.7, 1.7

Sample vs LHB: 98 BF (39.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 5

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.95

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.9 (64 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.1

K% vs LHB: 27.6

AVG against vs LHB: .253 (91 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .462

xSLG against vs LHB: .398

Last 30 days vs LHB: 16 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.39 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .188 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sweeper 58.2%, Sinker 40.2%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (70 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sweeper 64% · Sinker 36%

vs Romero's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .339

Pooled on those pitches: .359

At-bats: 64 (23 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .288

Pooled SLG: .688

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sweeper (64%)	.308	8 for 26	.261	.500	1	34%	89
Sinker (36%)	.395	15 for 38	.338	.816	5	24%	175

History: vs Romero (career): 1-8, 0 BB, 4 K · .125 BA, .125 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 6 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

JoJo Romero (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

0.0%2 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%17 BIP · 2 HR

4.3%2 BIP · 1 HR

7.1%13 BIP · 0 HR

11.4%20 BIP · 3 HR

5.7%10 BIP · 1 HR

15.7%11 BIP · 0 HR

8.6%20 BIP · 2 HR

4.3%6 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 70 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 101 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 139

Expected xSLG on his locations: .843

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.6

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .506

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.337

Chad Patrick (RHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.3 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 6 starts among 57 appearances

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 4.7 IP (median of 6 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 78 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.3 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.86 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 10, 6, 3, 8

Games: 57 (starts 6)

Saves: 6

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.3, 1.0, 0.7, 1.3, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 217 BF (49.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 7

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.23

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.9 (152 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 44.1

K% vs LHB: 18.4

AVG against vs LHB: .254 (189 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .460

xSLG against vs LHB: .459

Last 30 days vs LHB: 10 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 3.82 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .375 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 37.3%, Four-Seam 33.3%, Sinker 18.9%, Slurve 9.8%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 28 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Cutter 37% · Four-Seam 33% · Sinker 19% · Slurve 10%

vs Patrick's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .332

Pooled on those pitches: .294

At-bats: 177 (52 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .325

Pooled SLG: .525

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 90%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (37%)	.387	12 for 31	.330	.677	2	22%	151
Four-Seam (33%)	.241	27 for 112	.282	.411	4	26%	606
Sinker (19%)	.382	13 for 34	.389	.765	3	17%	140
Slurve (10%)	—	never seen	—	—	—	—	0	THIN

History: vs Patrick (career): 1-2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K · .500 BA, 2.000 SLG, 1.500 ISO · 2026: 5 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Chad Patrick (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.9%11 BIP · 1 HR

4.1%18 BIP · 0 HR

4.2%10 BIP · 2 HR

7.6%25 BIP · 1 HR

11.0%28 BIP · 4 HR

6.1%24 BIP · 2 HR

5.1%21 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%29 BIP · 4 HR

5.6%15 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 825 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 28 pitches, below 60) (56 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 57%

Batter sample: 181 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .905

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.4

Overlap coverage: 57% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .577

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.328

Shane Drohan (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 19 starts in 33 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 19 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 83 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 19)

Saves: 2

Holds: 3

Games finished: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.7, 0.7, 1.7, 2.7, 1.7

Sample vs LHB: 169 BF (32.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.8 (117 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 40.2

K% vs LHB: 25.4

AVG against vs LHB: .245 (159 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .352

xSLG against vs LHB: .353

Last 30 days vs LHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .300 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Slider 38.6%, Sinker 28.5%, Four-Seam 21.0%, Cutter 11.1%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Slider 40.8, Sinker 16.9, Four-Seam 15.1, Cutter 26.7

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Kyle Harrison (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 24 starts in 28 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 24 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 88 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 24)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.0, 1.7, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 147 BF (29.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.26

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.1 (97 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 26.8

K% vs LHB: 27.9

AVG against vs LHB: .237 (139 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .324

xSLG against vs LHB: .327

Last 30 days vs LHB: 14 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .333 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 56.7%, Slurve 38.5%, Sinker 4.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 22.8, Slurve 29.1, Sinker 13.6

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Robert Gasser (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~1st — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 21 starts in 22 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 21 starts)

Batters per start: 21 (~2.3 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 87 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 22 (starts 21)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 4.7, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 4.0

Sample vs LHB: 143 BF (29.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.53

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.3 (93 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 34.4

K% vs LHB: 23.8

AVG against vs LHB: .165 (127 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .291

xSLG against vs LHB: .320

Last 30 days vs LHB: 19 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .167 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 30.6%, Sweeper 28.1%, Cutter 20.5%, Four-Seam 18.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 14.3, Sweeper 33.3, Cutter 25.9, Four-Seam 24.1

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Dustin May (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.2 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 5.2 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.2 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 84 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 2.3, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0

Sample vs LHB: 379 BF (59.4% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 9

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.91

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.9 (239 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 43.1

K% vs LHB: 23.5

AVG against vs LHB: .267 (326 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .393

xSLG against vs LHB: .384

Last 30 days vs LHB: 28 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.73 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .318 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 28.5%, Four-Seam 27.7%, Sweeper 16.3%, Curve 10.8%, Changeup 9.7%, Sinker 7.0%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 17.4, Four-Seam 18.6, Sweeper 33.0, Curve 35.0, Changeup 18.2, Sinker 4.3

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 94

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 3.0, 5.3, 4.0, 4.3

Sample vs LHB: 383 BF (54.5% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 6

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.60

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.8 (176 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 34.1

K% vs LHB: 44.9

AVG against vs LHB: .115 (347 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .187

xSLG against vs LHB: .205

Last 30 days vs LHB: 43 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .077

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 64.0%, Cutter 14.5%, Curve 12.9%, Slider 6.9%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 42.1, Cutter 21.0, Curve 41.3, Slider 37.3

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 0/5 (0%) · L10 0/10 (0%) · L20 0/20 (0%)

PIT
8/23ATL
8/25ATL
8/26ATL
8/27DET
8/28DET
8/29DET
8/30STL
9/1STL
9/2CIN
9/7SD
9/23SD
9/24SF
9/25SF
9/26SF
9/27ATL
10/3ATL
10/4ATL
10/6ATL
10/7MIL
10/11

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CH/FF (124 BIP)

x1.1957 BIP · 1 HR

x0.6167 BIP · 0 HR

x1.5236 BIP · 2 HR

x0.80514 BIP · 0 HR

x1.20115 BIP · 1 HR

x0.55612 BIP · 1 HR

x0.44812 BIP · 0 HR

x1.03110 BIP · 1 HR

x0.9454 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FF land vs LHB (925 pitches, 52% in zone)

5.5%

6.2%

2.9%

7.8%

8.0%

4.9%

5.6%

6.9%

3.8%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CH/FF: 7 BIP, 0 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/3	Smith-Shawver	FF	87.8	29	314	field out
9/26	Beck	CH	93.9	-4	15	single
9/24	Miller	FF	106.8	18	372	double
9/24	Pivetta	FF	98.6	16	248	single
9/24	Pivetta	FF	103.9	37	381	field out
9/23	Rodriguez	FF	103.4	36	384	field out
9/7	Burns	FF	89.2	38	324	field out
9/1	McGreevy	CH	78.0	25	260	single
9/1	McGreevy	CH	60.6	-40	2	field out
8/29	Montero	FF	85.8	-11	15	field out
8/29	Montero	FF	66.2	32	203	single
8/28	Waguespack	FF	107.7	-1	32	field out

TARGETBATTER-FIRSTMax Muncy (LHB, slot 6) vs Logan Henderson · model 17.4% LEAKY: Changeup

Model & price

Model HR %: 17.4%

Best HR price: +4000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +2210)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 20.9% (fair +378)

Our model HR %: 17.4%

Difference: Ballpark Pal +3.5 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.23

Projected PA (sim): 4.3

Ballpark Pal's starter: Logan Henderson (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Logan Henderson: 4.1% neutral

HR per PA vs Logan Henderson, park-adjusted: 5.4%

vs his typical HR rate: +3%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: +36%

Strikeout per PA vs Logan Henderson: 29.8%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +13%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.32

Stadium only: ×1.02

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.30

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	60.9%	-156
Hits	1.5	21.1%	+374
Total bases	0.5	60.9%	-156
Total bases	1.5	39.5%	+153
Total bases	2.5	27.5%	+264

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .834 OPS · 22 HR · 427 PA

Batter is: AWAY · .849 OPS · 14 HR · 299 PA

Night: .796 OPS · 21 HR · 421 PA

Day: .966 OPS · 8 HR · 140 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.250	2 for 8	1	8	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.308	4 for 13	3	13	5
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.250	2 for 8	1	8	2	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.250	4 for 16	3	16	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 34 PA · .188 / .235 / .500 · ISO .312 · wOBA .335

Hits: 2 1B · 1 2B · 0 3B · 3 HR · 2 BB · 8 K

Contact: GB 33% · LD 21% · FB 29%

Quality: 4 barrels (17%) · hard-hit 50% · 91.3 mph on 24 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 26 PA · .208 / .269 / .583 · ISO .375 · wOBA .392

Hits: 2 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 3 HR · 2 BB · 6 K

Contact: GB 33% · LD 17% · FB 33%

Quality: 4 barrels (22%) · hard-hit 56% · 91.8 mph on 18 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Henderson (career): 1-5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K · .200 BA, .800 SLG, .600 ISO · 2026: 18 pitches, 3 BBE, 2 hard-hit, 1 brl

Escape: NO ESCAPE

Wind: 85°F, 12 mph blowing out to center

vs Henderson's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-03 to 10-04)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 276

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Four-Seam 53% · Changeup 43% LEAKY · Cutter 4%

vs Henderson's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .301

Pooled on those pitches: .302

At-bats: 215 (65 hits)

HR: 18

Weighted xBA: .289

Pooled SLG: .619

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (53%)	.351	39 for 111	.322	.739	11	17%	484
Changeup (43%) LEAKY	.243	18 for 74	.246	.405	3	33%	310
Cutter (4%)	.267	8 for 30	.332	.700	4	10%	131

vs Henderson's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .289

Pooled on those pitches: .368

At-bats: 19 (7 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .323

Pooled SLG: .842

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 53%

Sample: THIN (under 20 AB)

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (53%)	.300	3 for 10	.309	1.000	2	24%	49
Changeup (43%) LEAKY	.250	1 for 4	.328	.500	0	22%	16	THIN
Cutter (4%)	.600	3 for 5	.467	.800	0	18%	19	THIN

Changeup LEAKY43% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · TARGETABLE · TARGET (FIT)

Pitch allows (last 5 starts): 3 hits · 12% hard-hit · 6% barrels

Pitch fly-ball profile: 20% barrels/FB · 60% pull/FB · 31% FB · 1 HR on 16 BBE

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.476 · 10% barrels · 3 HR on 60 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .243 (74 AB) · 48% in the air · 86.6 mph · 33% hard-hit · 157 ft avg · 3 HR on 60 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .000 (2 AB) · 0% in the air · 60.6 mph · 0% hard-hit · 175 ft avg · 0 HR on 1 BBE

Last-10 check: NO RECENT DATA — under 2 balls in play on it in his last 10 games

Zone overlap vs Henderson

Logan Henderson (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.8%24 BIP · 4 HR

4.3%19 BIP · 2 HR

5.4%8 BIP · 1 HR

6.5%35 BIP · 6 HR

7.6%56 BIP · 6 HR

5.1%31 BIP · 4 HR

3.6%31 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%30 BIP · 1 HR

2.5%12 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 276 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 48%

Batter sample: 246 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 286

Expected xSLG on his locations: .745

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 11.0

Overlap coverage: 48% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .567

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.178

Changeup (CH): Logan Henderson's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP LEAKY

2.5%5 BIP · 1 HR

1.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

1.7%0 BIP · 0 HR

8.4%12 BIP · 2 HR

3.4%6 BIP · 0 HR

1.7%3 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%11 BIP · 0 HR

6.7%8 BIP · 0 HR

2.5%2 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 119 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 34%

Batter sample: 48 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 60

Expected xSLG on his locations: .546

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.0

Overlap coverage: 28% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.024

Four-Seam (FF): Logan Henderson's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

9.0%10 BIP · 2 HR

6.9%14 BIP · 2 HR

8.3%6 BIP · 1 HR

5.5%4 BIP · 0 HR

10.3%21 BIP · 2 HR

6.9%9 BIP · 1 HR

2.8%5 BIP · 1 HR

7.6%6 BIP · 1 HR

2.8%5 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 145 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 80 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 86

Expected xSLG on his locations: .896

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 13.8

Overlap coverage: 60% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .568

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.328

vs the bullpen

Pen: Milwaukee Brewers — behind Logan Henderson

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 0.88 (958 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 6.1

Pen K % to LHB: 24.6

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (7 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Trevor Megill

Available tonight: Antonio Senzatela, JoJo Romero, Chad Patrick

Not available / flagged: Trevor Megill (THREW YESTERDAY); Abner Uribe (THREW YESTERDAY); Aaron Ashby (THREW YESTERDAY); DL Hall (THREW YESTERDAY)

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela, DL Hall, JoJo Romero

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 6 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	—	no PA	—	0	0
Last 10 days vs LHP	.000	0 for 3	0	3	5	THIN

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Trevor Megill (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 33 saves in 67 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 67 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.99 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 8, 9, 9, 9

Games: 67 (starts 0)

Saves: 33

Holds: 7

Games finished: 45

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 19

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 122 BF (47.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.31

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.5 (80 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 42.5

K% vs LHB: 27.0

AVG against vs LHB: .164 (110 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .200

xSLG against vs LHB: .324

Last 30 days vs LHB: 22 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .211 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 67.9%, Knuckle-Curve 32.1%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (79 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 68% · Knuckle-Curve 32%

vs Megill's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .240

Pooled on those pitches: .336

At-bats: 116 (39 hits)

HR: 11

Weighted xBA: .225

Pooled SLG: .707

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 68%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (68%)	.351	39 for 111	.322	.739	11	17%	484
Knuckle-Curve (32%)	.000	0 for 5	.016	.000	0	36%	47	THIN

History: vs Megill (career): 1-2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K · .500 BA, 1.000 SLG, .500 ISO · 2026: 10 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 4.0%

K per PA: 33.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −5

Batter percentile: 4

Pitcher percentile: 12

Trevor Megill (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

3.8%24 BIP · 4 HR

5.1%19 BIP · 2 HR

3.8%8 BIP · 1 HR

6.3%35 BIP · 6 HR

12.7%56 BIP · 6 HR

6.3%31 BIP · 4 HR

5.1%31 BIP · 1 HR

7.6%30 BIP · 1 HR

8.9%12 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 79 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 246 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 286

Expected xSLG on his locations: .716

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.2

Overlap coverage: 60% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .585

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.131

Abner Uribe (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 25 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 66 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.97 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 8, 8, 6

Games: 66 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 25

Games finished: 18

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 15

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.3, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 117 BF (45.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.65

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (85 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 31.8

K% vs LHB: 19.7

AVG against vs LHB: .269 (108 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .343

xSLG against vs LHB: .341

Last 30 days vs LHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .368 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 67.8%, Slider 31.8%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (63 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 71% · Slider 29%

vs Uribe's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .271

Pooled on those pitches: .244

At-bats: 90 (22 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .265

Pooled SLG: .500

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (71%)	.300	12 for 40	.289	.575	3	12%	187
Slider (29%)	.200	10 for 50	.205	.440	3	27%	247

History: vs Uribe (career): 1-2 (3 PA), 1 BB, 0 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 3 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.8%

K per PA: 28.9%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +3

Batter percentile: 26

Pitcher percentile: 12

Abner Uribe (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

1.6%24 BIP · 4 HR

0.0%19 BIP · 2 HR

0.0%8 BIP · 1 HR

12.7%35 BIP · 6 HR

19.1%56 BIP · 6 HR

3.2%31 BIP · 4 HR

6.3%31 BIP · 1 HR

6.3%30 BIP · 1 HR

7.9%12 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 63 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (12 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 57%

Batter sample: 246 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 286

Expected xSLG on his locations: .770

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.4

Overlap coverage: 57% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 4, 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .602

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.168

Aaron Ashby (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 16 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.3 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 10 (~1.1 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 44 (median)

Leaves after inning: 3.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 79 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.23 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 5, 8, 5, 7

Games: 79 (starts 1)

Saves: 4

Holds: 16

Games finished: 11

Blown saves: 6

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 26

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 5.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 151 BF (36.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.51

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.3 (88 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 31.8

K% vs LHB: 33.8

AVG against vs LHB: .210 (138 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .290

xSLG against vs LHB: .246

Last 30 days vs LHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .105 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 58.4%, Slider 27.2%, Curve 12.0%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (87 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 70% · Curve 17% · Slider 10%

vs Ashby's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .216

Pooled on those pitches: .250

At-bats: 60 (15 hits)

HR: 3

Weighted xBA: .226

Pooled SLG: .450

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sinker (70%)	.200	6 for 30	.228	.333	1	9%	145
Curve (17%)	.200	2 for 10	.219	.200	0	47%	47
Slider (10%)	.350	7 for 20	.223	.750	2	39%	104

History: vs Ashby (career): 0-0 (1 PA), 0 BB, 0 K · 2026: 6 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.7%

K per PA: 31.2%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −4

Batter percentile: 7

Pitcher percentile: 27

Aaron Ashby (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

1.1%4 BIP · 1 HR

3.5%6 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.8%8 BIP · 0 HR

8.1%20 BIP · 2 HR

8.1%11 BIP · 0 HR

8.1%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.6%8 BIP · 2 HR

8.1%7 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 87 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 54%

Batter sample: 75 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 85

Expected xSLG on his locations: .574

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.3

Overlap coverage: 54% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .505

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.069

Antonio Senzatela (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 59 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.27 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 8, 7, 5, 5

Games: 59 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 11

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 8

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.7, 0.3, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 150 BF (47.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.02

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.6 (105 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.2

K% vs LHB: 20.7

AVG against vs LHB: .256 (133 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .376

xSLG against vs LHB: .367

Last 30 days vs LHB: 9 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .375 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 34.5%, Four-Seam 33.6%, Sinker 14.8%, Curve 10.9%, Changeup 5.4%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 40 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Cutter 34% · Four-Seam 34% · Sinker 15% · Curve 11% · Changeup 5%

vs Senzatela's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .294

Pooled on those pitches: .292

At-bats: 291 (85 hits)

HR: 22

Weighted xBA: .298

Pooled SLG: .584

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Cutter (34%)	.267	8 for 30	.332	.700	4	10%	131
Four-Seam (34%)	.351	39 for 111	.322	.739	11	17%	484
Sinker (15%)	.300	12 for 40	.289	.575	3	12%	187
Curve (11%)	.222	8 for 36	.158	.389	1	38%	213
Changeup (5%)	.243	18 for 74	.246	.405	3	33%	310

History: vs Senzatela (career): 6-28 (35 PA), 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 5 K · .214 BA, .464 SLG, .250 ISO · 2026: 16 pitches, 3 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 1 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.9%

K per PA: 20.2%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +10

Batter percentile: 91

Pitcher percentile: 4

Antonio Senzatela (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.0%24 BIP · 4 HR

8.8%19 BIP · 2 HR

6.1%8 BIP · 1 HR

7.6%35 BIP · 6 HR

7.5%56 BIP · 6 HR

6.6%31 BIP · 4 HR

3.8%31 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%30 BIP · 1 HR

3.0%12 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 603 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 40 pitches, below 60) (55 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 246 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 286

Expected xSLG on his locations: .739

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 11.3

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .563

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.176

DL Hall (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 6 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 7 (~0.8 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 50 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.29 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 6, 7, 6, 5

Games: 50 (starts 1)

Saves: 0

Holds: 6

Games finished: 13

Blown saves: 1

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 4

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 103 BF (40.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.37

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.8 (52 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 23.1

K% vs LHB: 30.1

AVG against vs LHB: .118 (85 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .176

xSLG against vs LHB: .252

Last 30 days vs LHB: 22 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 1.74 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .150 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 38.8%, Slider 20.7%, Sweeper 19.0%, Four-Seam 14.5%, Curve 3.6%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (82 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 50% · Slider 27% · Sweeper 10% · Cutter 6% · Curve 4% · Four-Seam 4%

vs Hall's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .249

Pooled on those pitches: .250

At-bats: 108 (27 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .221

Pooled SLG: .472

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 94%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (50%)	.200	6 for 30	.228	.333	1	9%	145
Slider (27%)	.350	7 for 20	.223	.750	2	39%	104
Sweeper (10%)	.167	2 for 12	.171	.250	0	59%	42
Cutter (6%)	.375	3 for 8	.244	.500	0	26%	41	THIN
Curve (4%)	.200	2 for 10	.219	.200	0	47%	47
Four-Seam (4%)	.250	7 for 28	.200	.607	3	19%	132

History: vs Hall: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

DL Hall (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.7%4 BIP · 1 HR

6.1%6 BIP · 1 HR

3.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

4.9%8 BIP · 0 HR

13.4%20 BIP · 2 HR

6.1%11 BIP · 0 HR

7.3%5 BIP · 0 HR

11.0%8 BIP · 2 HR

7.3%7 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 82 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 63%

Batter sample: 75 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 85

Expected xSLG on his locations: .648

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 11.1

Overlap coverage: 63% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .525

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.123

JoJo Romero (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 23 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.03 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 7, 6, 6, 4

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 23

Games finished: 4

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.3, 1.7, 0.7, 1.7

Sample vs LHB: 98 BF (39.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 5

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.95

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.9 (64 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.1

K% vs LHB: 27.6

AVG against vs LHB: .253 (91 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .462

xSLG against vs LHB: .398

Last 30 days vs LHB: 16 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.39 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .188 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sweeper 58.2%, Sinker 40.2%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (70 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sweeper 64% · Sinker 36%

vs Romero's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .179

Pooled on those pitches: .190

At-bats: 42 (8 hits)

HR: 1

Weighted xBA: .191

Pooled SLG: .310

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sweeper (64%)	.167	2 for 12	.171	.250	0	59%	42
Sinker (36%)	.200	6 for 30	.228	.333	1	9%	145

History: vs Romero (career): 0-5, 0 BB, 2 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

JoJo Romero (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

0.0%4 BIP · 1 HR

2.9%6 BIP · 1 HR

4.3%6 BIP · 0 HR

7.1%8 BIP · 0 HR

11.4%20 BIP · 2 HR

5.7%11 BIP · 0 HR

15.7%5 BIP · 0 HR

8.6%8 BIP · 2 HR

4.3%7 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 70 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 75 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 85

Expected xSLG on his locations: .571

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.3

Overlap coverage: 60% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .506

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.065

Chad Patrick (RHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.3 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 6 starts among 57 appearances

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 4.7 IP (median of 6 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 78 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.3 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.86 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 10, 6, 3, 8

Games: 57 (starts 6)

Saves: 6

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.3, 1.0, 0.7, 1.3, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 217 BF (49.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 7

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.23

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.9 (152 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 44.1

K% vs LHB: 18.4

AVG against vs LHB: .254 (189 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .460

xSLG against vs LHB: .459

Last 30 days vs LHB: 10 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 3.82 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .375 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 37.3%, Four-Seam 33.3%, Sinker 18.9%, Slurve 9.8%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 28 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Cutter 37% · Four-Seam 33% · Sinker 19% · Slurve 10%

vs Patrick's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .275

Pooled on those pitches: .324

At-bats: 182 (59 hits)

HR: 18

Weighted xBA: .288

Pooled SLG: .692

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 90%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (37%)	.267	8 for 30	.332	.700	4	10%	131
Four-Seam (33%)	.351	39 for 111	.322	.739	11	17%	484
Sinker (19%)	.300	12 for 40	.289	.575	3	12%	187
Slurve (10%)	.000	0 for 1	.000	.000	0	0%	7	THIN

History: vs Patrick (career): 0-2, 0 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 14 pitches, 3 BBE, 2 hard-hit, 1 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Chad Patrick (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.9%24 BIP · 4 HR

4.1%19 BIP · 2 HR

4.2%8 BIP · 1 HR

7.6%35 BIP · 6 HR

11.0%56 BIP · 6 HR

6.1%31 BIP · 4 HR

5.1%31 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%30 BIP · 1 HR

5.6%12 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 825 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 28 pitches, below 60) (56 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 57%

Batter sample: 246 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 286

Expected xSLG on his locations: .734

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.9

Overlap coverage: 57% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .577

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.157

Shane Drohan (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 19 starts in 33 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 19 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 83 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 19)

Saves: 2

Holds: 3

Games finished: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.7, 0.7, 1.7, 2.7, 1.7

Sample vs LHB: 169 BF (32.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.8 (117 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 40.2

K% vs LHB: 25.4

AVG against vs LHB: .245 (159 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .352

xSLG against vs LHB: .353

Last 30 days vs LHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .300 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Slider 38.6%, Sinker 28.5%, Four-Seam 21.0%, Cutter 11.1%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Slider 40.8, Sinker 16.9, Four-Seam 15.1, Cutter 26.7

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Kyle Harrison (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 24 starts in 28 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 24 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 88 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 24)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.0, 1.7, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 147 BF (29.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.26

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.1 (97 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 26.8

K% vs LHB: 27.9

AVG against vs LHB: .237 (139 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .324

xSLG against vs LHB: .327

Last 30 days vs LHB: 14 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .333 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 56.7%, Slurve 38.5%, Sinker 4.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 22.8, Slurve 29.1, Sinker 13.6

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Robert Gasser (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~1st — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 21 starts in 22 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 21 starts)

Batters per start: 21 (~2.3 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 87 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 22 (starts 21)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 4.7, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 4.0

Sample vs LHB: 143 BF (29.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.53

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.3 (93 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 34.4

K% vs LHB: 23.8

AVG against vs LHB: .165 (127 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .291

xSLG against vs LHB: .320

Last 30 days vs LHB: 19 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .167 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 30.6%, Sweeper 28.1%, Cutter 20.5%, Four-Seam 18.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 14.3, Sweeper 33.3, Cutter 25.9, Four-Seam 24.1

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Dustin May (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.2 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 5.2 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.2 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 84 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 2.3, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0

Sample vs LHB: 379 BF (59.4% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 9

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.91

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.9 (239 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 43.1

K% vs LHB: 23.5

AVG against vs LHB: .267 (326 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .393

xSLG against vs LHB: .384

Last 30 days vs LHB: 28 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.73 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .318 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 28.5%, Four-Seam 27.7%, Sweeper 16.3%, Curve 10.8%, Changeup 9.7%, Sinker 7.0%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 17.4, Four-Seam 18.6, Sweeper 33.0, Curve 35.0, Changeup 18.2, Sinker 4.3

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 94

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 3.0, 5.3, 4.0, 4.3

Sample vs LHB: 383 BF (54.5% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 6

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.60

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.8 (176 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 34.1

K% vs LHB: 44.9

AVG against vs LHB: .115 (347 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .187

xSLG against vs LHB: .205

Last 30 days vs LHB: 43 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .077

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 64.0%, Cutter 14.5%, Curve 12.9%, Slider 6.9%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 42.1, Cutter 21.0, Curve 41.3, Slider 37.3

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 3/5 (60%) · L10 3/10 (30%) · L20 5/20 (25%)

MIA
9/11MIA
9/12MIA
9/13CIN
9/14CIN
9/15CIN
9/16CIN
9/17SF
9/18SF
9/19SF
9/20SD
9/22SD
9/23SD
9/24SF
9/25SF
9/27ATL
10/3ATL
10/4ATL
10/6ATL
10/7MIL
10/11

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CH/FF (146 BIP)

x0.76615 BIP · 3 HR

x0.59015 BIP · 2 HR

x0.6676 BIP · 1 HR

x0.78216 BIP · 2 HR

x0.95927 BIP · 2 HR

x0.73812 BIP · 1 HR

x0.71916 BIP · 1 HR

x0.76714 BIP · 1 HR

x0.5467 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FF land vs LHB (925 pitches, 52% in zone)

5.5%

6.2%

2.9%

7.8%

8.0%

4.9%

5.6%

6.9%

3.8%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CH/FF: 13 BIP, 2 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/7	Iglesias	FF	104.3	29	389	home run
10/4	Fuentes	FF	108.8	24	397	home run
9/22	Canning	CH	60.6	29	175	field out
9/22	King	FF	98.2	32	379	field out
9/19	Davitt	CH	103.4	9	214	double
9/19	Marte	FF	109.9	17	267	double
9/14	Santillan	FF	92.5	48	276	field out
9/13	Vodnik	FF	99.6	34	387	field out
9/12	Petersen	CH	96.4	41	331	field out
9/11	Vodnik	CH	71.5	6	65	single
9/11	Gusto	CH	103.2	6	105	single
9/9	Lowder	CH	94.0	-4	21	field out

BATTER-FIRSTTeoscar Hernández (RHB, slot 3) vs Logan Henderson · model 13.7%

Model & price

Model HR %: 13.7%

Best HR price: +6000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +3250)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 18.1% (fair +452)

Our model HR %: 13.7%

Difference: Ballpark Pal +4.4 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.19

Projected PA (sim): 4.6

Ballpark Pal's starter: Logan Henderson (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Logan Henderson: 3.7% neutral

HR per PA vs Logan Henderson, park-adjusted: 4.7%

vs his typical HR rate: +27%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: +64%

Strikeout per PA vs Logan Henderson: 34.0%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +14%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.29

Stadium only: ×1.02

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.27

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	62.8%	-169
Hits	1.5	23.3%	+329
Total bases	0.5	62.8%	-169
Total bases	1.5	40.3%	+148
Total bases	2.5	26.3%	+280

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .695 OPS · 9 HR · 338 PA

Batter is: AWAY · .748 OPS · 10 HR · 243 PA

Night: .792 OPS · 14 HR · 382 PA

Day: .642 OPS · 2 HR · 109 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.429	3 for 7	0	7	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.417	5 for 12	1	12	5
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.375	3 for 8	0	8	2	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.250	5 for 20	1	20	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 38 PA · .270 / .289 / .459 · ISO .189 · wOBA .346

Hits: 7 1B · 1 2B · 0 3B · 2 HR · 1 BB · 14 K

Contact: GB 30% · LD 30% · FB 35%

Quality: 5 barrels (22%) · hard-hit 48% · 94.1 mph on 23 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 23 PA · .318 / .348 / .636 · ISO .318 · wOBA .415

Hits: 4 1B · 1 2B · 0 3B · 2 HR · 1 BB · 8 K

Contact: GB 14% · LD 36% · FB 43%

Quality: 4 barrels (29%) · hard-hit 43% · 96.2 mph on 14 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Henderson (career): 1-4, 0 BB, 1 K · .250 BA, .250 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 15 pitches, 3 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Escape: NO ESCAPE

Wind: 85°F, 12 mph blowing out to center

vs Henderson's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-03 to 10-04)

Pitches to RHB in the window: 167

Mix to RHB (3%+ use): Four-Seam 41% · Changeup 38% · Cutter 14% · Sweeper 8%

vs Henderson's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .256

Pooled on those pitches: .234

At-bats: 167 (39 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .243

Pooled SLG: .431

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (41%)	.272	22 for 81	.269	.469	4	23%	385
Changeup (38%)	.263	5 for 19	.231	.579	2	37%	89
Cutter (14%)	.276	8 for 29	.265	.655	3	36%	155
Sweeper (8%)	.105	4 for 38	.124	.105	0	44%	158

vs Henderson's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .196

Pooled on those pitches: .250

At-bats: 24 (6 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .243

Pooled SLG: .542

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 41%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (41%)	.312	5 for 16	.299	.562	1	26%	61
Changeup (38%)	.000	0 for 1	.089	.000	0	25%	6	THIN
Cutter (14%)	.500	1 for 2	.579	2.000	1	30%	17	THIN
Sweeper (8%)	.000	0 for 5	.102	.000	0	50%	22	THIN

Four-Seam41% of his mix to RHB, last 5 starts · EXCEPTIONAL

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.748 · 16% barrels · 4 HR on 56 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .272 (81 AB) · 66% in the air · 93.9 mph · 55% hard-hit · 216 ft avg · 4 HR on 56 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .364 (11 AB) · 88% in the air · 93.6 mph · 38% hard-hit · 252 ft avg · 1 HR on 8 BBE

Last-10 check: YES — 5 of 5: hits it, in the air, hard, far, homered

Zone overlap vs Henderson

Logan Henderson (RHP, starter) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.2%19 BIP · 2 HR

7.2%17 BIP · 1 HR

3.6%8 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%31 BIP · 4 HR

6.0%34 BIP · 4 HR

7.2%22 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%11 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%24 BIP · 0 HR

7.8%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 167 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 175 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 228

Expected xSLG on his locations: .609

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.4

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .535

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.074

Changeup (CH): Logan Henderson's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

0.0%1 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%1 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%3 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%0 BIP · 0 HR

9.5%1 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%2 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%1 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 63 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 9 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 12

Expected xSLG on his locations: .558

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.6

Overlap coverage: 2% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .523

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.035

THIN: batter 9 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Logan Henderson's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

7.3%9 BIP · 0 HR

8.8%11 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%3 BIP · 0 HR

10.3%6 BIP · 1 HR

11.8%5 BIP · 1 HR

8.8%6 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

1.5%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.9%0 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 68 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 42 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 56

Expected xSLG on his locations: .809

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.0

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .551

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.258

vs the bullpen

Pen: Milwaukee Brewers — behind Logan Henderson

Pen HR/9 to RHB: 0.62 (1227 BF)

Pen barrel % to RHB: 5.9

Pen K % to RHB: 24.5

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (7 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Trevor Megill

Available tonight: Antonio Senzatela, JoJo Romero, Chad Patrick

Not available / flagged: Trevor Megill (THREW YESTERDAY); Abner Uribe (THREW YESTERDAY); Aaron Ashby (THREW YESTERDAY); DL Hall (THREW YESTERDAY)

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela, DL Hall, JoJo Romero

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 6 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.000	0 for 1	0	1	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.000	0 for 8	0	8	5	THIN

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Trevor Megill (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 33 saves in 67 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 67 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.99 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 8, 9, 9, 9

Games: 67 (starts 0)

Saves: 33

Holds: 7

Games finished: 45

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 19

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 136 BF (52.7% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 0

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs RHB: 7.0 (86 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 44.2

K% vs RHB: 29.4

AVG against vs RHB: .184 (125 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .248

xSLG against vs RHB: .345

Last 30 days vs RHB: 17 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 62.3%, Knuckle-Curve 37.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 54 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 62% · Knuckle-Curve 38%

vs Megill's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .245

Pooled on those pitches: .267

At-bats: 86 (23 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .247

Pooled SLG: .453

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 62%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (62%)	.272	22 for 81	.269	.469	4	23%	385
Knuckle-Curve (38%)	.200	1 for 5	.210	.200	0	38%	16	THIN

History: vs Megill (career): 0-3, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.2%

K per PA: 36.0%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −10

Batter percentile: 1

Pitcher percentile: 84

Trevor Megill (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

3.5%19 BIP · 2 HR

6.0%17 BIP · 1 HR

5.6%8 BIP · 0 HR

5.8%31 BIP · 4 HR

13.2%34 BIP · 4 HR

6.5%22 BIP · 0 HR

2.5%11 BIP · 0 HR

6.1%24 BIP · 0 HR

6.5%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 521 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 54 pitches, below 60) (67 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 175 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 228

Expected xSLG on his locations: .627

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.4

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .551

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.076

Abner Uribe (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 25 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 66 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.97 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 8, 8, 6

Games: 66 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 25

Games finished: 18

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 15

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.3, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 139 BF (54.3% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 1

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.28

Barrel% vs RHB: 4.9 (82 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 37.8

K% vs RHB: 30.2

AVG against vs RHB: .148 (122 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .189

xSLG against vs RHB: .278

Last 30 days vs RHB: 31 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .222

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 56.3%, Slider 43.2%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (117 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sinker 54% · Slider 46%

vs Uribe's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .325

Pooled on those pitches: .326

At-bats: 135 (44 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .257

Pooled SLG: .481

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (54%)	.360	27 for 75	.289	.480	1	14%	313
Slider (46%)	.283	17 for 60	.220	.483	3	39%	225

History: vs Uribe (career): 1-4, 0 BB, 2 K · .250 BA, .250 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 3 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 1.9%

K per PA: 29.5%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −6

Batter percentile: 29

Pitcher percentile: 75

Abner Uribe (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.3%19 BIP · 2 HR

6.0%17 BIP · 1 HR

0.8%8 BIP · 0 HR

6.8%31 BIP · 4 HR

10.3%34 BIP · 4 HR

5.1%22 BIP · 0 HR

2.6%11 BIP · 0 HR

10.3%24 BIP · 0 HR

6.8%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 117 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (12 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 175 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 228

Expected xSLG on his locations: .640

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.5

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .544

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.096

Aaron Ashby (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 16 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.3 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 10 (~1.1 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 44 (median)

Leaves after inning: 3.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 79 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.23 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 5, 8, 5, 7

Games: 79 (starts 1)

Saves: 4

Holds: 16

Games finished: 11

Blown saves: 6

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 26

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 5.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0

Sample vs RHB: 258 BF (63.1% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 6

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.89

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.5 (153 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 42.5

K% vs RHB: 27.5

AVG against vs RHB: .220 (223 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .318

xSLG against vs RHB: .315

Last 30 days vs RHB: 40 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.96 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .139

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 48.6%, Curve 28.0%, Changeup 20.3%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (161 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sinker 43% · Changeup 29% · Curve 27%

vs Ashby's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .351

Pooled on those pitches: .278

At-bats: 54 (15 hits)

HR: 3

Weighted xBA: .312

Pooled SLG: .444

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 29%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (43%)	.444	4 for 9	.436	.778	1	8%	80	THIN
Changeup (29%)	.231	9 for 39	.267	.385	2	36%	155
Curve (27%)	.333	2 for 6	.165	.333	0	40%	56	THIN

History: vs Ashby (career): 0-2 (3 PA), 1 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 2 pitches, 2 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.0%

K per PA: 32.6%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −8

Batter percentile: 11

Pitcher percentile: 80

Aaron Ashby (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.1%6 BIP · 0 HR

3.7%5 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%4 BIP · 0 HR

2.5%12 BIP · 3 HR

9.3%21 BIP · 0 HR

4.3%7 BIP · 0 HR

3.7%4 BIP · 0 HR

9.9%9 BIP · 2 HR

10.6%5 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 161 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 73 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 106

Expected xSLG on his locations: .650

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.4

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .550

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.100

Antonio Senzatela (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 59 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.27 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 8, 7, 5, 5

Games: 59 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 11

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 8

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.7, 0.3, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 169 BF (53.0% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 2

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.45

Barrel% vs RHB: 5.6 (124 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 44.4

K% vs RHB: 17.8

AVG against vs RHB: .273 (154 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .383

xSLG against vs RHB: .388

Last 30 days vs RHB: 23 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 1.66 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .273 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Cutter 32.8%, Sinker 28.9%, Four-Seam 26.4%, Curve 5.7%, Changeup 3.5%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (80 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Cutter 41% · Sinker 39% · Four-Seam 12% · Curve 8%

vs Senzatela's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .306

Pooled on those pitches: .306

At-bats: 193 (59 hits)

HR: 8

Weighted xBA: .272

Pooled SLG: .497

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 92%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (41%)	.276	8 for 29	.265	.655	3	36%	155
Sinker (39%)	.360	27 for 75	.289	.480	1	14%	313
Four-Seam (12%)	.272	22 for 81	.269	.469	4	23%	385
Curve (8%)	.250	2 for 8	.229	.375	0	38%	44	THIN

History: vs Senzatela (career): 1-7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K · .143 BA, .571 SLG, .429 ISO · 2026: 15 pitches, 2 BBE, 2 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.8%

K per PA: 24.5%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +5

Batter percentile: 87

Pitcher percentile: 83

Antonio Senzatela (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

3.8%19 BIP · 2 HR

8.8%17 BIP · 1 HR

1.2%8 BIP · 0 HR

8.8%31 BIP · 4 HR

6.2%34 BIP · 4 HR

15.0%22 BIP · 0 HR

7.5%11 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%24 BIP · 0 HR

10.0%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 80 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (9 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 66%

Batter sample: 175 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 228

Expected xSLG on his locations: .601

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.2

Overlap coverage: 66% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .532

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.069

DL Hall (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 6 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 7 (~0.8 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 50 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.29 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 6, 7, 6, 5

Games: 50 (starts 1)

Saves: 0

Holds: 6

Games finished: 13

Blown saves: 1

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 4

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7

Sample vs RHB: 150 BF (59.3% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 4

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.02

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.5 (93 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 38.7

K% vs RHB: 22.7

AVG against vs RHB: .157 (127 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .268

xSLG against vs RHB: .309

Last 30 days vs RHB: 32 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .148

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 36.3%, Changeup 25.4%, Curve 24.8%, Four-Seam 9.7%, Slider 3.3%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (128 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sinker 45% · Curve 24% · Changeup 23% · Slider 5%

vs Hall's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .354

Pooled on those pitches: .266

At-bats: 64 (17 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .324

Pooled SLG: .453

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 29%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (45%)	.444	4 for 9	.436	.778	1	8%	80	THIN
Curve (24%)	.333	2 for 6	.165	.333	0	40%	56	THIN
Changeup (23%)	.231	9 for 39	.267	.385	2	36%	155
Slider (5%)	.200	2 for 10	.346	.500	1	47%	47

History: vs Hall: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

DL Hall (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

2.3%6 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%5 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%4 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%12 BIP · 3 HR

5.5%21 BIP · 0 HR

7.0%7 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%4 BIP · 0 HR

14.1%9 BIP · 2 HR

4.7%5 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 128 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (9 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 48%

Batter sample: 73 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 106

Expected xSLG on his locations: .745

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 8.9

Overlap coverage: 48% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 8

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .561

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.184

JoJo Romero (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 23 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.03 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 7, 6, 6, 4

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 23

Games finished: 4

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.3, 1.7, 0.7, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 149 BF (60.3% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.77

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.0 (100 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 39.0

K% vs RHB: 20.8

AVG against vs RHB: .214 (131 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .328

xSLG against vs RHB: .409

Last 30 days vs RHB: 21 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 1.82 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .100 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 48.1%, Changeup 27.3%, Sweeper 22.9%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (80 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sinker 54% · Changeup 28% · Sweeper 19%

vs Romero's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .373

Pooled on those pitches: .286

At-bats: 56 (16 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .349

Pooled SLG: .536

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 28%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (54%)	.444	4 for 9	.436	.778	1	8%	80	THIN
Changeup (28%)	.231	9 for 39	.267	.385	2	36%	155
Sweeper (19%)	.375	3 for 8	.220	1.000	1	54%	22	THIN

History: vs Romero: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

JoJo Romero (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

0.0%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%5 BIP · 0 HR

2.5%4 BIP · 0 HR

1.2%12 BIP · 3 HR

8.8%21 BIP · 0 HR

13.8%7 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%4 BIP · 0 HR

11.2%9 BIP · 2 HR

3.8%5 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 80 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 73 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 106

Expected xSLG on his locations: .631

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.4

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: 6

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .578

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.053

Chad Patrick (RHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.3 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 6 starts among 57 appearances

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 4.7 IP (median of 6 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 78 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.3 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.86 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 10, 6, 3, 8

Games: 57 (starts 6)

Saves: 6

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.3, 1.0, 0.7, 1.3, 0.3

Sample vs RHB: 226 BF (51.0% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 4

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.68

Barrel% vs RHB: 4.9 (143 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 30.8

K% vs RHB: 23.5

AVG against vs RHB: .185 (195 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .272

xSLG against vs RHB: .313

Last 30 days vs RHB: 18 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Cutter 47.3%, Sinker 28.0%, Four-Seam 17.7%, Slurve 6.6%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (81 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Cutter 53% · Sinker 27% · Four-Seam 16%

vs Patrick's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .299

Pooled on those pitches: .308

At-bats: 185 (57 hits)

HR: 8

Weighted xBA: .273

Pooled SLG: .503

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Cutter (53%)	.276	8 for 29	.265	.655	3	36%	155
Sinker (27%)	.360	27 for 75	.289	.480	1	14%	313
Four-Seam (16%)	.272	22 for 81	.269	.469	4	23%	385

History: vs Patrick (career): 1-5, 0 BB, 2 K · .200 BA, .200 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 21 pitches, 4 BBE, 3 hard-hit, 1 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Chad Patrick (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

7.4%19 BIP · 2 HR

6.2%17 BIP · 1 HR

7.4%8 BIP · 0 HR

2.5%31 BIP · 4 HR

3.7%34 BIP · 4 HR

12.3%22 BIP · 0 HR

1.2%11 BIP · 0 HR

1.2%24 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 81 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (6 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 175 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 228

Expected xSLG on his locations: .544

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.6

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .513

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.031

Shane Drohan (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 19 starts in 33 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 19 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 83 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 19)

Saves: 2

Holds: 3

Games finished: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.7, 0.7, 1.7, 2.7, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 359 BF (68.0% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 14

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.49

Barrel% vs RHB: 9.4 (234 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 38.5

K% vs RHB: 22.8

AVG against vs RHB: .260 (315 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .438

xSLG against vs RHB: .383

Last 30 days vs RHB: 24 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 3.19 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .211 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 29.2%, Sinker 19.1%, Curve 18.2%, Slider 14.3%, Cutter 12.0%, Changeup 7.1%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 25.1, Sinker 8.9, Curve 28.7, Slider 29.4, Cutter 11.5, Changeup 38.5

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Kyle Harrison (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 24 starts in 28 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 24 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 88 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 24)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.0, 1.7, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0

Sample vs RHB: 359 BF (70.9% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 19

HR/9 vs RHB: 2.02

Barrel% vs RHB: 10.8 (223 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 43.9

K% vs RHB: 27.9

AVG against vs RHB: .270 (322 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .497

xSLG against vs RHB: .415

Last 30 days vs RHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .533 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 57.2%, Slurve 29.7%, Changeup 12.3%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 25.9, Slurve 29.3, Changeup 24.2

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Robert Gasser (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~1st — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 21 starts in 22 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 21 starts)

Batters per start: 21 (~2.3 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 87 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 22 (starts 21)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 4.7, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 4.0

Sample vs RHB: 336 BF (70.1% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 14

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.59

Barrel% vs RHB: 8.9 (235 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 33.2

K% vs RHB: 21.4

AVG against vs RHB: .253 (304 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .441

xSLG against vs RHB: .437

Last 30 days vs RHB: 64 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 1.20 (2 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .123

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 24.9%, Sweeper 23.7%, Sinker 20.1%, Cutter 16.5%, Changeup 14.6%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 25.4, Sweeper 22.0, Sinker 7.1, Cutter 13.0, Changeup 21.1

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Dustin May (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.2 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 5.2 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.2 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 84 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 2.3, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0

Sample vs RHB: 259 BF (40.6% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 5

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.74

Barrel% vs RHB: 10.4 (182 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 45.6

K% vs RHB: 22.4

AVG against vs RHB: .240 (242 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .364

xSLG against vs RHB: .410

Last 30 days vs RHB: 23 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 1.66 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .286 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 41.0%, Four-Seam 19.9%, Sweeper 19.3%, Cutter 17.1%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 17.4, Four-Seam 21.6, Sweeper 18.1, Cutter 36.6

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 94

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 3.0, 5.3, 4.0, 4.3

Sample vs RHB: 320 BF (45.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 8

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.96

Barrel% vs RHB: 3.9 (204 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 35.3

K% vs RHB: 28.4

AVG against vs RHB: .219 (297 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .320

xSLG against vs RHB: .320

Last 30 days vs RHB: 43 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .350

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 63.3%, Slider 17.4%, Cutter 12.6%, Curve 6.5%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 24.3, Slider 30.1, Cutter 19.4, Curve 45.2

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 1/5 (20%) · L10 2/10 (20%) · L20 4/20 (20%)

MIA
9/11MIA
9/12CIN
9/14CIN
9/15CIN
9/16CIN
9/17SF
9/18SF
9/19SF
9/20SD
9/22SD
9/23SD
9/24SF
9/25SF
9/26SF
9/27ATL
10/3ATL
10/4ATL
10/6ATL
10/7MIL
10/11

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CH/FF (68 BIP)

x0.74310 BIP · 1 HR

x0.94211 BIP · 1 HR

x0.6653 BIP · 0 HR

x1.1587 BIP · 2 HR

x0.8258 BIP · 1 HR

x0.5676 BIP · 0 HR

x0.7521 BIP · 0 HR

x0.8084 BIP · 0 HR

x0.0811 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FF land vs RHB (387 pitches, 57% in zone)

6.5%

5.4%

3.9%

6.5%

10.9%

7.8%

3.6%

6.2%

6.5%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CH/FF: 12 BIP, 1 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/11	Misiorowski	FF	93.6	14	232	single
10/7	Iglesias	FF	78.2	7	95	field out
10/4	Fuentes	FF	84.6	33	283	field out
10/3	Smith-Shawver	FF	106.9	8	167	single
9/27	Smith	FF	85.4	33	286	field out
9/26	Beck	FF	105.2	22	356	double
9/25	Beck	FF	85.8	59	182	field out
9/25	Marte	FF	109.2	27	412	home run
9/22	Canning	CH	61.0	49	166	field out
9/19	Marte	FF	106.3	12	242	single
9/17	Santillan	FF	97.0	41	328	field out
9/11	Gusto	FF	85.1	31	292	field out

BATTER-FIRSTWill Smith (RHB, slot 5) vs Logan Henderson · model 13.4%

Model & price

Model HR %: 13.4%

Best HR price: +8000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +4300)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 20.3% (fair +393)

Our model HR %: 13.4%

Difference: Ballpark Pal +6.9 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.22

Projected PA (sim): 4.4

Ballpark Pal's starter: Logan Henderson (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Logan Henderson: 3.7% neutral

HR per PA vs Logan Henderson, park-adjusted: 5.2%

vs his typical HR rate: +14%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: +59%

Strikeout per PA vs Logan Henderson: 22.9%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +12%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.40

Stadium only: ×1.08

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.32

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	63.5%	-174
Hits	1.5	24.0%	+317
Total bases	0.5	63.5%	-174
Total bases	1.5	40.8%	+145
Total bases	2.5	27.3%	+266

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .853 OPS · 8 HR · 193 PA

Batter is: AWAY · .655 OPS · 0 HR · 124 PA

Night: .768 OPS · 10 HR · 243 PA

Day: .870 OPS · 0 HR · 33 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.000	0 for 6	6	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.000	0 for 11	11	5
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.000	0 for 7	8	2	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.053	1 for 19	20	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 37 PA · .212 / .297 / .303 · ISO .091 · wOBA .276

Hits: 6 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 1 HR · 4 BB · 11 K

Contact: GB 36% · LD 27% · FB 32%

Quality: 1 barrels (5%) · hard-hit 45% · 90.8 mph on 22 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 23 PA · .238 / .304 / .381 · ISO .143 · wOBA .304

Hits: 4 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 1 HR · 2 BB · 5 K

Contact: GB 44% · LD 19% · FB 38%

Quality: 1 barrels (6%) · hard-hit 56% · 90.9 mph on 16 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Henderson: never faced him

Escape: NO ESCAPE

Wind: 85°F, 12 mph blowing out to center

vs Henderson's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-03 to 10-04)

Pitches to RHB in the window: 167

Mix to RHB (3%+ use): Four-Seam 41% · Changeup 38% · Cutter 14% · Sweeper 8%

vs Henderson's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .308

Pooled on those pitches: .280

At-bats: 82 (23 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .312

Pooled SLG: .476

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 49%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (41%)	.244	11 for 45	.295	.489	3	12%	255
Changeup (38%)	.400	2 for 5	.266	1.000	1	27%	36	THIN
Cutter (14%)	.222	2 for 9	.512	.222	0	19%	57	THIN
Sweeper (8%)	.348	8 for 23	.264	.435	0	24%	109

vs Henderson's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .245

Pooled on those pitches: .231

At-bats: 13 (3 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .202

Pooled SLG: .231

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 0%

Sample: THIN (under 20 AB)

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (41%)	.167	1 for 6	.122	.167	0	17%	62	THIN
Changeup (38%)	—	no AB	—	—	—	0%	3	THIN
Cutter (14%)	.500	1 for 2	.421	.500	0	50%	13	THIN
Sweeper (8%)	.200	1 for 5	.230	.200	0	0%	11	THIN

Four-Seam41% of his mix to RHB, last 5 starts · EXCEPTIONAL

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.853 · 21% barrels · 3 HR on 34 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .244 (45 AB) · 68% in the air · 95.4 mph · 62% hard-hit · 232 ft avg · 3 HR on 34 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .200 (5 AB) · 67% in the air · 93.1 mph · 33% hard-hit · 198 ft avg · 0 HR on 3 BBE

Last-10 check: NO — 2 of 5: in the air, hard

Zone overlap vs Henderson

Logan Henderson (RHP, starter) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.2%7 BIP · 0 HR

7.2%18 BIP · 2 HR

3.6%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%17 BIP · 2 HR

6.0%17 BIP · 2 HR

7.2%14 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%7 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%23 BIP · 2 HR

7.8%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 167 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 118 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 155

Expected xSLG on his locations: .661

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.3

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .535

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.126

Changeup (CH): Logan Henderson's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%1 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%0 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%0 BIP · 0 HR

9.5%0 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%0 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 63 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 1 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 3

Expected xSLG on his locations: 3.467

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 100.0

Overlap coverage: 0% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .520

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +2.947

THIN: batter 1 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Logan Henderson's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

7.3%3 BIP · 0 HR

8.8%5 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%3 BIP · 0 HR

10.3%0 BIP · 0 HR

11.8%4 BIP · 0 HR

8.8%5 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

1.5%4 BIP · 2 HR

5.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 68 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 26 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 34

Expected xSLG on his locations: .850

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.0

Overlap coverage: 44% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .542

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.308

vs the bullpen

Pen: Milwaukee Brewers — behind Logan Henderson

Pen HR/9 to RHB: 0.62 (1227 BF)

Pen barrel % to RHB: 5.9

Pen K % to RHB: 24.5

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (7 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Trevor Megill

Available tonight: Antonio Senzatela, JoJo Romero, Chad Patrick

Not available / flagged: Trevor Megill (THREW YESTERDAY); Abner Uribe (THREW YESTERDAY); Aaron Ashby (THREW YESTERDAY); DL Hall (THREW YESTERDAY)

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela, DL Hall, JoJo Romero

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 6 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.000	0 for 1	0	2	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.125	1 for 8	0	9	5	THIN

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Trevor Megill (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 33 saves in 67 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 67 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.99 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 8, 9, 9, 9

Games: 67 (starts 0)

Saves: 33

Holds: 7

Games finished: 45

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 19

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 136 BF (52.7% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 0

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs RHB: 7.0 (86 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 44.2

K% vs RHB: 29.4

AVG against vs RHB: .184 (125 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .248

xSLG against vs RHB: .345

Last 30 days vs RHB: 17 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 62.3%, Knuckle-Curve 37.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 54 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 62% · Knuckle-Curve 38%

vs Megill's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .341

Pooled on those pitches: .255

At-bats: 47 (12 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .299

Pooled SLG: .553

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 62%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (62%)	.244	11 for 45	.295	.489	3	12%	255
Knuckle-Curve (38%)	.500	1 for 2	.307	2.000	1	0%	10	THIN

History: vs Megill (career): 1-6, 0 BB, 3 K · .167 BA, .167 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.0%

K per PA: 24.5%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −3

Batter percentile: 2

Pitcher percentile: 3

Trevor Megill (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

3.5%7 BIP · 0 HR

6.0%18 BIP · 2 HR

5.6%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.8%17 BIP · 2 HR

13.2%17 BIP · 2 HR

6.5%14 BIP · 0 HR

2.5%7 BIP · 0 HR

6.1%23 BIP · 2 HR

6.5%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 521 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 54 pitches, below 60) (67 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 118 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 155

Expected xSLG on his locations: .688

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.2

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .551

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.137

Abner Uribe (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 25 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 66 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.97 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 8, 8, 6

Games: 66 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 25

Games finished: 18

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 15

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.3, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 139 BF (54.3% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 1

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.28

Barrel% vs RHB: 4.9 (82 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 37.8

K% vs RHB: 30.2

AVG against vs RHB: .148 (122 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .189

xSLG against vs RHB: .278

Last 30 days vs RHB: 31 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .222

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 56.3%, Slider 43.2%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (117 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sinker 54% · Slider 46%

vs Uribe's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .289

Pooled on those pitches: .289

At-bats: 83 (24 hits)

HR: 3

Weighted xBA: .282

Pooled SLG: .446

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (54%)	.356	16 for 45	.328	.556	2	6%	180
Slider (46%)	.211	8 for 38	.229	.316	1	16%	150

History: vs Uribe (career): 1-5, 0 BB, 1 K · .200 BA, .200 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 2 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.5%

K per PA: 22.1%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +7

Batter percentile: 30

Pitcher percentile: 2

Abner Uribe (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.3%7 BIP · 0 HR

6.0%18 BIP · 2 HR

0.8%6 BIP · 0 HR

6.8%17 BIP · 2 HR

10.3%17 BIP · 2 HR

5.1%14 BIP · 0 HR

2.6%7 BIP · 0 HR

10.3%23 BIP · 2 HR

6.8%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 117 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (12 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 118 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 155

Expected xSLG on his locations: .729

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.7

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .544

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.185

Aaron Ashby (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 16 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.3 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 10 (~1.1 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 44 (median)

Leaves after inning: 3.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 79 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.23 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 5, 8, 5, 7

Games: 79 (starts 1)

Saves: 4

Holds: 16

Games finished: 11

Blown saves: 6

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 26

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 5.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0

Sample vs RHB: 258 BF (63.1% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 6

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.89

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.5 (153 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 42.5

K% vs RHB: 27.5

AVG against vs RHB: .220 (223 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .318

xSLG against vs RHB: .315

Last 30 days vs RHB: 40 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.96 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .139

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 48.6%, Curve 28.0%, Changeup 20.3%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (161 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sinker 43% · Changeup 29% · Curve 27%

vs Ashby's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .189

Pooled on those pitches: .226

At-bats: 31 (7 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .292

Pooled SLG: .452

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 29%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (43%)	.143	1 for 7	.410	.143	0	6%	42	THIN
Changeup (29%)	.278	5 for 18	.322	.611	2	3%	83
Curve (27%)	.167	1 for 6	.076	.333	0	29%	54	THIN

History: vs Ashby (career): 0-2 (5 PA), 3 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 4 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 1.9%

K per PA: 26.2%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −2

Batter percentile: 3

Pitcher percentile: 17

Aaron Ashby (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.1%4 BIP · 0 HR

3.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%2 BIP · 0 HR

2.5%4 BIP · 0 HR

9.3%9 BIP · 1 HR

4.3%9 BIP · 0 HR

3.7%4 BIP · 1 HR

9.9%8 BIP · 0 HR

10.6%3 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 161 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 49 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 56

Expected xSLG on his locations: .532

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.8

Overlap coverage: 47% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .550

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.018

Antonio Senzatela (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 59 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.27 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 8, 7, 5, 5

Games: 59 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 11

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 8

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.7, 0.3, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 169 BF (53.0% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 2

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.45

Barrel% vs RHB: 5.6 (124 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 44.4

K% vs RHB: 17.8

AVG against vs RHB: .273 (154 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .383

xSLG against vs RHB: .388

Last 30 days vs RHB: 23 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 1.66 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .273 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Cutter 32.8%, Sinker 28.9%, Four-Seam 26.4%, Curve 5.7%, Changeup 3.5%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (80 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Cutter 41% · Sinker 39% · Four-Seam 12% · Curve 8%

vs Senzatela's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .260

Pooled on those pitches: .276

At-bats: 105 (29 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .378

Pooled SLG: .467

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 51%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (41%)	.222	2 for 9	.512	.222	0	19%	57	THIN
Sinker (39%)	.356	16 for 45	.328	.556	2	6%	180
Four-Seam (12%)	.244	11 for 45	.295	.489	3	12%	255
Curve (8%)	.000	0 for 6	.033	.000	0	45%	33	THIN

History: vs Senzatela (career): 4-20 (28 PA), 6 BB, 4 K · .200 BA, .200 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 13 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.9%

K per PA: 14.5%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +10

Batter percentile: 92

Pitcher percentile: 2

Antonio Senzatela (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

3.8%7 BIP · 0 HR

8.8%18 BIP · 2 HR

1.2%6 BIP · 0 HR

8.8%17 BIP · 2 HR

6.2%17 BIP · 2 HR

15.0%14 BIP · 0 HR

7.5%7 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%23 BIP · 2 HR

10.0%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 80 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (9 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 66%

Batter sample: 118 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 155

Expected xSLG on his locations: .646

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.8

Overlap coverage: 66% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 6

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .532

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.114

DL Hall (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 6 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 7 (~0.8 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 50 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.29 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 6, 7, 6, 5

Games: 50 (starts 1)

Saves: 0

Holds: 6

Games finished: 13

Blown saves: 1

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 4

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7

Sample vs RHB: 150 BF (59.3% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 4

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.02

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.5 (93 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 38.7

K% vs RHB: 22.7

AVG against vs RHB: .157 (127 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .268

xSLG against vs RHB: .309

Last 30 days vs RHB: 32 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .148

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 36.3%, Changeup 25.4%, Curve 24.8%, Four-Seam 9.7%, Slider 3.3%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (128 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sinker 45% · Curve 24% · Changeup 23% · Slider 5%

vs Hall's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .182

Pooled on those pitches: .214

At-bats: 42 (9 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .294

Pooled SLG: .381

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 29%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (45%)	.143	1 for 7	.410	.143	0	6%	42	THIN
Curve (24%)	.167	1 for 6	.076	.333	0	29%	54	THIN
Changeup (23%)	.278	5 for 18	.322	.611	2	3%	83
Slider (5%)	.182	2 for 11	.179	.182	0	33%	49

History: vs Hall (career): 1-1, 0 BB, 0 K · 1.000 BA, 1.000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 6 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

DL Hall (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

2.3%4 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%6 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%4 BIP · 0 HR

5.5%9 BIP · 1 HR

7.0%9 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%4 BIP · 1 HR

14.1%8 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%3 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 128 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (9 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 48%

Batter sample: 49 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 56

Expected xSLG on his locations: .529

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.7

Overlap coverage: 44% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 8

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .561

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.032

JoJo Romero (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 23 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.03 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 7, 6, 6, 4

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 23

Games finished: 4

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.3, 1.7, 0.7, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 149 BF (60.3% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.77

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.0 (100 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 39.0

K% vs RHB: 20.8

AVG against vs RHB: .214 (131 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .328

xSLG against vs RHB: .409

Last 30 days vs RHB: 21 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 1.82 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .100 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 48.1%, Changeup 27.3%, Sweeper 22.9%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (80 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sinker 54% · Changeup 28% · Sweeper 19%

vs Romero's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .184

Pooled on those pitches: .226

At-bats: 31 (7 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .325

Pooled SLG: .419

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 28%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (54%)	.143	1 for 7	.410	.143	0	6%	42	THIN
Changeup (28%)	.278	5 for 18	.322	.611	2	3%	83
Sweeper (19%)	.167	1 for 6	.086	.167	0	11%	21	THIN

History: vs Romero (career): 1-5 (6 PA), 1 BB, 0 K · .200 BA, .200 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

JoJo Romero (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

0.0%4 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%6 BIP · 0 HR

2.5%2 BIP · 0 HR

1.2%4 BIP · 0 HR

8.8%9 BIP · 1 HR

13.8%9 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%4 BIP · 1 HR

11.2%8 BIP · 0 HR

3.8%3 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 80 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 49 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 56

Expected xSLG on his locations: .625

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.8

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 6

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .578

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.047

Chad Patrick (RHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.3 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 6 starts among 57 appearances

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 4.7 IP (median of 6 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 78 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.3 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.86 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 10, 6, 3, 8

Games: 57 (starts 6)

Saves: 6

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.3, 1.0, 0.7, 1.3, 0.3

Sample vs RHB: 226 BF (51.0% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 4

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.68

Barrel% vs RHB: 4.9 (143 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 30.8

K% vs RHB: 23.5

AVG against vs RHB: .185 (195 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .272

xSLG against vs RHB: .313

Last 30 days vs RHB: 18 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Cutter 47.3%, Sinker 28.0%, Four-Seam 17.7%, Slurve 6.6%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (81 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Cutter 53% · Sinker 27% · Four-Seam 16%

vs Patrick's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .264

Pooled on those pitches: .293

At-bats: 99 (29 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .424

Pooled SLG: .495

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 45%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (53%)	.222	2 for 9	.512	.222	0	19%	57	THIN
Sinker (27%)	.356	16 for 45	.328	.556	2	6%	180
Four-Seam (16%)	.244	11 for 45	.295	.489	3	12%	255

History: vs Patrick (career): 1-2, 0 BB, 0 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Chad Patrick (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

7.4%7 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%18 BIP · 2 HR

7.4%6 BIP · 0 HR

2.5%17 BIP · 2 HR

3.7%17 BIP · 2 HR

12.3%14 BIP · 0 HR

1.2%7 BIP · 0 HR

1.2%23 BIP · 2 HR

11.1%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 81 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (6 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 118 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 155

Expected xSLG on his locations: .568

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.9

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 6

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .513

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.055

Shane Drohan (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 19 starts in 33 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 19 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 83 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 19)

Saves: 2

Holds: 3

Games finished: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.7, 0.7, 1.7, 2.7, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 359 BF (68.0% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 14

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.49

Barrel% vs RHB: 9.4 (234 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 38.5

K% vs RHB: 22.8

AVG against vs RHB: .260 (315 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .438

xSLG against vs RHB: .383

Last 30 days vs RHB: 24 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 3.19 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .211 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 29.2%, Sinker 19.1%, Curve 18.2%, Slider 14.3%, Cutter 12.0%, Changeup 7.1%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 25.1, Sinker 8.9, Curve 28.7, Slider 29.4, Cutter 11.5, Changeup 38.5

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Kyle Harrison (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 24 starts in 28 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 24 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 88 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 24)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.0, 1.7, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0

Sample vs RHB: 359 BF (70.9% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 19

HR/9 vs RHB: 2.02

Barrel% vs RHB: 10.8 (223 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 43.9

K% vs RHB: 27.9

AVG against vs RHB: .270 (322 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .497

xSLG against vs RHB: .415

Last 30 days vs RHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .533 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 57.2%, Slurve 29.7%, Changeup 12.3%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 25.9, Slurve 29.3, Changeup 24.2

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Robert Gasser (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~1st — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 21 starts in 22 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 21 starts)

Batters per start: 21 (~2.3 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 87 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 22 (starts 21)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 4.7, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 4.0

Sample vs RHB: 336 BF (70.1% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 14

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.59

Barrel% vs RHB: 8.9 (235 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 33.2

K% vs RHB: 21.4

AVG against vs RHB: .253 (304 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .441

xSLG against vs RHB: .437

Last 30 days vs RHB: 64 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 1.20 (2 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .123

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 24.9%, Sweeper 23.7%, Sinker 20.1%, Cutter 16.5%, Changeup 14.6%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 25.4, Sweeper 22.0, Sinker 7.1, Cutter 13.0, Changeup 21.1

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Dustin May (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.2 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 5.2 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.2 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 84 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 2.3, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0

Sample vs RHB: 259 BF (40.6% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 5

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.74

Barrel% vs RHB: 10.4 (182 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 45.6

K% vs RHB: 22.4

AVG against vs RHB: .240 (242 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .364

xSLG against vs RHB: .410

Last 30 days vs RHB: 23 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 1.66 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .286 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 41.0%, Four-Seam 19.9%, Sweeper 19.3%, Cutter 17.1%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 17.4, Four-Seam 21.6, Sweeper 18.1, Cutter 36.6

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 94

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 3.0, 5.3, 4.0, 4.3

Sample vs RHB: 320 BF (45.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 8

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.96

Barrel% vs RHB: 3.9 (204 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 35.3

K% vs RHB: 28.4

AVG against vs RHB: .219 (297 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .320

xSLG against vs RHB: .320

Last 30 days vs RHB: 43 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .350

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 63.3%, Slider 17.4%, Cutter 12.6%, Curve 6.5%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 24.3, Slider 30.1, Cutter 19.4, Curve 45.2

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 0/5 (0%) · L10 1/10 (10%) · L20 4/20 (20%)

CIN
9/7CIN
9/8CIN
9/9MIA
9/11MIA
9/12MIA
9/13CIN
9/14CIN
9/16SF
9/18SF
9/19SF
9/20SD
9/22SD
9/23SF
9/25SF
9/26ATL
10/3ATL
10/4ATL
10/6ATL
10/7MIL
10/11

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CH/FF (37 BIP)

x0.8253 BIP · 0 HR

x1.5665 BIP · 1 HR

x0.4063 BIP · 0 HR

x3.4671 BIP · 1 HR

x0.9034 BIP · 0 HR

x0.4995 BIP · 0 HR

—

x2.2094 BIP · 2 HR

x0.3322 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FF land vs RHB (387 pitches, 57% in zone)

6.5%

5.4%

3.9%

6.5%

10.9%

7.8%

3.6%

6.2%

6.5%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CH/FF: 3 BIP, 0 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/7	Mahle	FF	89.0	-24	6	field out
10/4	Suarez	FF	85.7	33	297	field out
9/25	Marte	FF	104.7	15	292	single
9/1	Winquest	FF	81.2	-29	4	force out
9/1	Fernandez	FF	104.1	9	218	double
9/1	Gastelum	FF	90.6	59	196	field out
6/1	Sewald	FF	88.4	33	334	field out
5/26	Agnos	FF	106.9	23	399	home run
5/23	Anderson	FF	95.3	30	354	field out
5/20	Marinaccio	FF	85.9	-14	7	grounded into double play
5/20	Vásquez	FF	101.0	20	321	field out
5/15	Yates	FF	98.9	-1	40	field out

TARGETKyle Tucker (LHB, slot 8) vs Logan Henderson · model 9.5% LEAKY: Changeup

Model & price

Model HR %: 9.5%

Best HR price: +13000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +6875)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 21.4% (fair +367)

Our model HR %: 9.5%

Difference: Ballpark Pal +11.9 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.23

Projected PA (sim): 4.1

Ballpark Pal's starter: Logan Henderson (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Logan Henderson: 5.3% neutral

HR per PA vs Logan Henderson, park-adjusted: 7.3%

vs his typical HR rate: +71%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: +137%

Strikeout per PA vs Logan Henderson: 16.6%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +2%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.38

Stadium only: ×1.02

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.36

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	65.1%	-187
Hits	1.5	23.8%	+320
Total bases	0.5	65.1%	-187
Total bases	1.5	42.1%	+138
Total bases	2.5	28.6%	+250

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .694 OPS · 12 HR · 436 PA

Batter is: AWAY · .833 OPS · 12 HR · 324 PA

Night: .685 OPS · 15 HR · 459 PA

Day: .798 OPS · 2 HR · 168 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.250	1 for 4	0	7	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.444	4 for 9	1	12	5	THIN
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.200	1 for 5	0	8	2	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.294	5 for 17	1	20	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 41 PA · .243 / .317 / .324 · ISO .081 · wOBA .315

Hits: 8 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 1 HR · 4 BB · 8 K

Contact: GB 28% · LD 21% · FB 34%

Quality: 1 barrels (3%) · hard-hit 14% · 82.2 mph on 29 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 24 PA · .300 / .417 / .450 · ISO .150 · wOBA .388

Hits: 5 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 1 HR · 4 BB · 4 K

Contact: GB 25% · LD 19% · FB 50%

Quality: 1 barrels (6%) · hard-hit 12% · 84.2 mph on 16 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Henderson (career): 0-5, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 31 pitches, 4 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Escape: NO ESCAPE

Wind: 85°F, 12 mph blowing out to center

vs Henderson's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-03 to 10-04)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 276

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Four-Seam 53% · Changeup 43% LEAKY · Cutter 4%

vs Henderson's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .219

Pooled on those pitches: .233

At-bats: 253 (59 hits)

HR: 10

Weighted xBA: .250

Pooled SLG: .391

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (53%)	.221	30 for 136	.266	.404	7	14%	569
Changeup (43%) LEAKY	.208	16 for 77	.223	.325	2	26%	328
Cutter (4%)	.325	13 for 40	.322	.475	1	13%	145

vs Henderson's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .165

Pooled on those pitches: .227

At-bats: 22 (5 hits)

HR: 1

Weighted xBA: .219

Pooled SLG: .364

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 53%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (53%)	.312	5 for 16	.274	.500	1	8%	45
Changeup (43%) LEAKY	.000	0 for 3	.169	.000	0	20%	13	THIN
Cutter (4%)	.000	0 for 3	.025	.000	0	33%	11	THIN

Changeup LEAKY43% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · TARGETABLE · TARGET (HR 2026)

Pitch allows (last 5 starts): 3 hits · 12% hard-hit · 6% barrels

Pitch fly-ball profile: 20% barrels/FB · 60% pull/FB · 31% FB · 1 HR on 16 BBE

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.352 · 2% barrels · 2 HR on 65 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .208 (77 AB) · 48% in the air · 84.5 mph · 32% hard-hit · 152 ft avg · 2 HR on 65 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: no batted balls

Last-10 check: NO RECENT DATA — under 2 balls in play on it in his last 10 games

Zone overlap vs Henderson

Logan Henderson (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.8%11 BIP · 0 HR

4.3%37 BIP · 2 HR

5.4%14 BIP · 1 HR

6.5%32 BIP · 0 HR

7.6%51 BIP · 4 HR

5.1%28 BIP · 3 HR

3.6%42 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%46 BIP · 2 HR

2.5%14 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 276 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 48%

Batter sample: 275 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 322

Expected xSLG on his locations: .502

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.5

Overlap coverage: 48% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .567

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.065

Changeup (CH): Logan Henderson's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP LEAKY

2.5%0 BIP · 0 HR

1.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

1.7%0 BIP · 0 HR

8.4%8 BIP · 0 HR

3.4%8 BIP · 0 HR

1.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%16 BIP · 1 HR

6.7%11 BIP · 1 HR

2.5%3 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 119 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 34%

Batter sample: 48 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 65

Expected xSLG on his locations: .364

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.1

Overlap coverage: 26% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .569

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.205

Four-Seam (FF): Logan Henderson's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

9.0%9 BIP · 0 HR

6.9%25 BIP · 2 HR

8.3%9 BIP · 1 HR

5.5%10 BIP · 0 HR

10.3%27 BIP · 2 HR

6.9%16 BIP · 2 HR

2.8%3 BIP · 0 HR

7.6%9 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%1 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 145 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 109 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 116

Expected xSLG on his locations: .544

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.2

Overlap coverage: 57% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .568

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.024

vs the bullpen

Pen: Milwaukee Brewers — behind Logan Henderson

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 0.88 (958 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 6.1

Pen K % to LHB: 24.6

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (7 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Trevor Megill

Available tonight: Antonio Senzatela, JoJo Romero, Chad Patrick

Not available / flagged: Trevor Megill (THREW YESTERDAY); Abner Uribe (THREW YESTERDAY); Aaron Ashby (THREW YESTERDAY); DL Hall (THREW YESTERDAY)

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela, DL Hall, JoJo Romero

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 6 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.000	0 for 1	0	1	2	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.125	1 for 8	0	8	5	THIN

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, Antonio Senzatela (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Trevor Megill (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 33 saves in 67 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 67 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.99 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 8, 9, 9, 9

Games: 67 (starts 0)

Saves: 33

Holds: 7

Games finished: 45

Blown saves: 3

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 19

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 122 BF (47.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.31

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.5 (80 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 42.5

K% vs LHB: 27.0

AVG against vs LHB: .164 (110 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .200

xSLG against vs LHB: .324

Last 30 days vs LHB: 22 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .211 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 67.9%, Knuckle-Curve 32.1%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (79 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 68% · Knuckle-Curve 32%

vs Megill's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .230

Pooled on those pitches: .222

At-bats: 144 (32 hits)

HR: 7

Weighted xBA: .319

Pooled SLG: .403

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 68%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (68%)	.221	30 for 136	.266	.404	7	14%	569
Knuckle-Curve (32%)	.250	2 for 8	.432	.375	0	15%	37	THIN

History: vs Megill (career): 0-5 (6 PA), 1 BB, 3 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 12 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.5%

K per PA: 20.6%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −4

Batter percentile: 1

Pitcher percentile: 6

Trevor Megill (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

3.8%11 BIP · 0 HR

5.1%37 BIP · 2 HR

3.8%14 BIP · 1 HR

6.3%32 BIP · 0 HR

12.7%51 BIP · 4 HR

6.3%28 BIP · 3 HR

5.1%42 BIP · 1 HR

7.6%46 BIP · 2 HR

8.9%14 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 79 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 275 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 322

Expected xSLG on his locations: .505

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.5

Overlap coverage: 60% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .585

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.080

Abner Uribe (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 25 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 66 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.97 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 8, 8, 6

Games: 66 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 25

Games finished: 18

Blown saves: 2

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 15

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.3, 1.3, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 117 BF (45.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.65

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (85 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 31.8

K% vs LHB: 19.7

AVG against vs LHB: .269 (108 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .343

xSLG against vs LHB: .341

Last 30 days vs LHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .368 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 67.8%, Slider 31.8%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (63 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 71% · Slider 29%

vs Uribe's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .324

Pooled on those pitches: .243

At-bats: 74 (18 hits)

HR: 3

Weighted xBA: .283

Pooled SLG: .405

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (71%)	.406	13 for 32	.322	.688	2	10%	160
Slider (29%)	.119	5 for 42	.185	.190	1	23%	231

History: vs Uribe (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.0%

K per PA: 17.4%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +5

Batter percentile: 15

Pitcher percentile: 5

Abner Uribe (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

1.6%11 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%37 BIP · 2 HR

0.0%14 BIP · 1 HR

12.7%32 BIP · 0 HR

19.1%51 BIP · 4 HR

3.2%28 BIP · 3 HR

6.3%42 BIP · 1 HR

6.3%46 BIP · 2 HR

7.9%14 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 63 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (12 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 57%

Batter sample: 275 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 322

Expected xSLG on his locations: .488

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.0

Overlap coverage: 57% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: 4

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .602

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.114

Aaron Ashby (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 16 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.3 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 10 (~1.1 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 44 (median)

Leaves after inning: 3.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 79 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.23 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 5, 8, 5, 7

Games: 79 (starts 1)

Saves: 4

Holds: 16

Games finished: 11

Blown saves: 6

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 26

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 5.0 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 151 BF (36.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.51

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.3 (88 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 31.8

K% vs LHB: 33.8

AVG against vs LHB: .210 (138 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .290

xSLG against vs LHB: .246

Last 30 days vs LHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .105 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 58.4%, Slider 27.2%, Curve 12.0%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (87 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 70% · Curve 17% · Slider 10%

vs Ashby's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .113

Pooled on those pitches: .148

At-bats: 88 (13 hits)

HR: 1

Weighted xBA: .227

Pooled SLG: .239

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 82%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (70%)	.121	7 for 58	.247	.172	0	7%	205
Curve (17%)	.000	0 for 6	.126	.000	0	21%	40	THIN
Slider (10%)	.250	6 for 24	.260	.458	1	28%	156

History: vs Ashby (career): 0-3 (6 PA), 3 BB, 2 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 14 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.1%

K per PA: 19.4%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +5

Batter percentile: 15

Pitcher percentile: 2

Aaron Ashby (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

1.1%9 BIP · 0 HR

3.5%13 BIP · 0 HR

6.9%13 BIP · 1 HR

5.8%17 BIP · 0 HR

8.1%25 BIP · 2 HR

8.1%19 BIP · 1 HR

8.1%6 BIP · 0 HR

4.6%12 BIP · 1 HR

8.1%4 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 87 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 54%

Batter sample: 118 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 141

Expected xSLG on his locations: .518

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.7

Overlap coverage: 54% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .505

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.013

Antonio Senzatela (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 59 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.27 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 8, 7, 5, 5

Games: 59 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 11

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 8

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.7, 1.7, 0.3, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 150 BF (47.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.02

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.6 (105 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.2

K% vs LHB: 20.7

AVG against vs LHB: .256 (133 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .376

xSLG against vs LHB: .367

Last 30 days vs LHB: 9 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .375 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 34.5%, Four-Seam 33.6%, Sinker 14.8%, Curve 10.9%, Changeup 5.4%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 40 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Cutter 34% · Four-Seam 34% · Sinker 15% · Curve 11% · Changeup 5%

vs Senzatela's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .293

Pooled on those pitches: .256

At-bats: 305 (78 hits)

HR: 12

Weighted xBA: .297

Pooled SLG: .416

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Cutter (34%)	.325	13 for 40	.322	.475	1	13%	145
Four-Seam (34%)	.221	30 for 136	.266	.404	7	14%	569
Sinker (15%)	.406	13 for 32	.322	.688	2	10%	160
Curve (11%)	.300	6 for 20	.309	.300	0	26%	127
Changeup (5%)	.208	16 for 77	.223	.325	2	26%	328

History: vs Senzatela (career): 0-6, 0 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 8 pitches, 2 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.5%

K per PA: 11.6%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +10

Batter percentile: 92

Pitcher percentile: 4

Antonio Senzatela (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.0%11 BIP · 0 HR

8.8%37 BIP · 2 HR

6.1%14 BIP · 1 HR

7.6%32 BIP · 0 HR

7.5%51 BIP · 4 HR

6.6%28 BIP · 3 HR

3.8%42 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%46 BIP · 2 HR

3.0%14 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 603 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 40 pitches, below 60) (55 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 275 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 322

Expected xSLG on his locations: .512

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.7

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .563

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.051

DL Hall (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — THREW YESTERDAY

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 6 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 1 starts)

Batters per start: 7 (~0.8 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 50 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.29 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 6, 7, 6, 5

Games: 50 (starts 1)

Saves: 0

Holds: 6

Games finished: 13

Blown saves: 1

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 4

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.0, 1.7, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 103 BF (40.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.37

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.8 (52 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 23.1

K% vs LHB: 30.1

AVG against vs LHB: .118 (85 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .176

xSLG against vs LHB: .252

Last 30 days vs LHB: 22 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 1.74 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .150 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 38.8%, Slider 20.7%, Sweeper 19.0%, Four-Seam 14.5%, Curve 3.6%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (82 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 50% · Slider 27% · Sweeper 10% · Cutter 6% · Curve 4% · Four-Seam 4%

vs Hall's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .211

Pooled on those pitches: .246

At-bats: 167 (41 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .256

Pooled SLG: .419

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 90%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (50%)	.121	7 for 58	.247	.172	0	7%	205
Slider (27%)	.250	6 for 24	.260	.458	1	28%	156
Sweeper (10%)	.455	5 for 11	.368	1.182	2	17%	68
Cutter (6%)	.444	4 for 9	.190	.556	0	18%	72	THIN
Curve (4%)	.000	0 for 6	.126	.000	0	21%	40	THIN
Four-Seam (4%)	.322	19 for 59	.300	.525	2	20%	205

History: vs Hall (career): 0-4, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 1 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

DL Hall (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.7%9 BIP · 0 HR

6.1%13 BIP · 0 HR

3.7%13 BIP · 1 HR

4.9%17 BIP · 0 HR

13.4%25 BIP · 2 HR

6.1%19 BIP · 1 HR

7.3%6 BIP · 0 HR

11.0%12 BIP · 1 HR

7.3%4 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 82 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (10 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 63%

Batter sample: 118 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 141

Expected xSLG on his locations: .512

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.1

Overlap coverage: 63% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 5

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .525

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.013

JoJo Romero (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 23 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.03 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 4, 7, 6, 6, 4

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 23

Games finished: 4

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.3, 1.7, 0.7, 1.7

Sample vs LHB: 98 BF (39.7% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 5

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.95

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.9 (64 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.1

K% vs LHB: 27.6

AVG against vs LHB: .253 (91 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .462

xSLG against vs LHB: .398

Last 30 days vs LHB: 16 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.39 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .188 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sweeper 58.2%, Sinker 40.2%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (70 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sweeper 64% · Sinker 36%

vs Romero's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .335

Pooled on those pitches: .174

At-bats: 69 (12 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .325

Pooled SLG: .333

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sweeper (64%)	.455	5 for 11	.368	1.182	2	17%	68
Sinker (36%)	.121	7 for 58	.247	.172	0	7%	205

History: vs Romero (career): 1-2 (5 PA), 1 BB, 0 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

JoJo Romero (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

0.0%9 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%13 BIP · 0 HR

4.3%13 BIP · 1 HR

7.1%17 BIP · 0 HR

11.4%25 BIP · 2 HR

5.7%19 BIP · 1 HR

15.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

8.6%12 BIP · 1 HR

4.3%4 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 70 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 60%

Batter sample: 118 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 141

Expected xSLG on his locations: .502

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.8

Overlap coverage: 60% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .506

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.004

Chad Patrick (RHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.3 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 6 starts among 57 appearances

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 4.7 IP (median of 6 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 78 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.3 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.86 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 10, 6, 3, 8

Games: 57 (starts 6)

Saves: 6

Holds: 11

Games finished: 9

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.3, 1.0, 0.7, 1.3, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 217 BF (49.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 7

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.23

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.9 (152 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 44.1

K% vs LHB: 18.4

AVG against vs LHB: .254 (189 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .460

xSLG against vs LHB: .459

Last 30 days vs LHB: 10 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 3.82 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .375 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 37.3%, Four-Seam 33.3%, Sinker 18.9%, Slurve 9.8%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 28 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Cutter 37% · Four-Seam 33% · Sinker 19% · Slurve 10%

vs Patrick's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .273

Pooled on those pitches: .267

At-bats: 210 (56 hits)

HR: 10

Weighted xBA: .272

Pooled SLG: .457

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 90%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (37%)	.325	13 for 40	.322	.475	1	13%	145
Four-Seam (33%)	.221	30 for 136	.266	.404	7	14%	569
Sinker (19%)	.406	13 for 32	.322	.688	2	10%	160
Slurve (10%)	.000	0 for 2	.004	.000	0	25%	6	THIN

History: vs Patrick (career): 3-3, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K · 1.000 BA, 1.667 SLG, .667 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Chad Patrick (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.9%11 BIP · 0 HR

4.1%37 BIP · 2 HR

4.2%14 BIP · 1 HR

7.6%32 BIP · 0 HR

11.0%51 BIP · 4 HR

6.1%28 BIP · 3 HR

5.1%42 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%46 BIP · 2 HR

5.6%14 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 825 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 28 pitches, below 60) (56 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 57%

Batter sample: 275 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 322

Expected xSLG on his locations: .494

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.3

Overlap coverage: 57% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .577

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.083

Shane Drohan (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 19 starts in 33 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 19 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 83 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 19)

Saves: 2

Holds: 3

Games finished: 4

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-27 (15 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 3.7, 0.7, 1.7, 2.7, 1.7

Sample vs LHB: 169 BF (32.0% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.8 (117 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 40.2

K% vs LHB: 25.4

AVG against vs LHB: .245 (159 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .352

xSLG against vs LHB: .353

Last 30 days vs LHB: 20 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .300 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Slider 38.6%, Sinker 28.5%, Four-Seam 21.0%, Cutter 11.1%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Slider 40.8, Sinker 16.9, Four-Seam 15.1, Cutter 26.7

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Kyle Harrison (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 24 starts in 28 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 24 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 88 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 24)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.0, 1.7, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 147 BF (29.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.26

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.1 (97 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 26.8

K% vs LHB: 27.9

AVG against vs LHB: .237 (139 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .324

xSLG against vs LHB: .327

Last 30 days vs LHB: 14 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .333 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 56.7%, Slurve 38.5%, Sinker 4.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 22.8, Slurve 29.1, Sinker 13.6

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Robert Gasser (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~1st — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 21 starts in 22 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 21 starts)

Batters per start: 21 (~2.3 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 87 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 22 (starts 21)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 4.7, 5.0, 7.0, 6.0, 4.0

Sample vs LHB: 143 BF (29.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.53

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.3 (93 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 34.4

K% vs LHB: 23.8

AVG against vs LHB: .165 (127 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .291

xSLG against vs LHB: .320

Last 30 days vs LHB: 19 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .167 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 30.6%, Sweeper 28.1%, Cutter 20.5%, Four-Seam 18.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 14.3, Sweeper 33.3, Cutter 25.9, Four-Seam 24.1

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Dustin May (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.2 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 5.2 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.2 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 84 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.5 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-06 (6 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 2.3, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0

Sample vs LHB: 379 BF (59.4% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 9

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.91

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.9 (239 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 43.1

K% vs LHB: 23.5

AVG against vs LHB: .267 (326 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .393

xSLG against vs LHB: .384

Last 30 days vs LHB: 28 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.73 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .318 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 28.5%, Four-Seam 27.7%, Sweeper 16.3%, Curve 10.8%, Changeup 9.7%, Sinker 7.0%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Cutter 17.4, Four-Seam 18.6, Sweeper 33.0, Curve 35.0, Changeup 18.2, Sinker 4.3

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — THREW YESTERDAY

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 92 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: THREW YESTERDAY

Last appearance: 2026-10-11 (1 days ago)

Pitches yesterday: 94

Consecutive days pitched: 1

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 3.0, 5.3, 4.0, 4.3

Sample vs LHB: 383 BF (54.5% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 6

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.60

Barrel% vs LHB: 2.8 (176 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 34.1

K% vs LHB: 44.9

AVG against vs LHB: .115 (347 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .187

xSLG against vs LHB: .205

Last 30 days vs LHB: 43 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .077

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 64.0%, Cutter 14.5%, Curve 12.9%, Slider 6.9%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 42.1, Cutter 21.0, Curve 41.3, Slider 37.3

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 1/5 (20%) · L10 1/10 (10%) · L20 4/20 (20%)

MIA
9/12MIA
9/13CIN
9/14CIN
9/15CIN
9/16CIN
9/17SF
9/18SF
9/19SF
9/20SD
9/22SD
9/23SD
9/24SF
9/25SF
9/26SF
9/27ATL
10/3ATL
10/4ATL
10/6ATL
10/7MIL
10/11

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CH/FF (181 BIP)

x0.2499 BIP · 0 HR

x0.56826 BIP · 2 HR

x0.6829 BIP · 1 HR

x0.27818 BIP · 0 HR

x0.70735 BIP · 2 HR

x0.70917 BIP · 2 HR

x0.55119 BIP · 1 HR

x0.34220 BIP · 1 HR

x0.2404 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FF land vs LHB (925 pitches, 52% in zone)

5.5%

6.2%

2.9%

7.8%

8.0%

4.9%

5.6%

6.9%

3.8%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CH/FF: 22 BIP, 2 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/4	Fuentes	FF	85.7	39	297	field out
10/4	Fuentes	FF	94.6	16	268	field out
10/3	Smith-Shawver	FF	105.6	39	408	home run
10/3	Mederos	FF	72.8	25	222	single
9/27	Davitt	FF	91.9	60	205	field out
9/27	Roxby	FF	80.3	68	128	field out
9/26	Davitt	FF	65.1	30	199	single
9/25	Beck	FF	89.5	3	69	grounded into double play
9/22	King	CH	48.8	-55	2	field out
9/19	Kuhnel	FF	97.6	-10	18	single
9/16	Garcia	FF	94.3	6	107	single
9/15	Lowder	CH	88.9	-3	27	grounded into double play

ROOFCleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays · 8:00 PM ETFoster Griffin / Drew Rasmussen · 7 names

ROOF: 72°F at first pitch, wind 5 mph (gusts 10) in from left, 75% humidity, 0% precip · mild · dome, wind does not apply

Our runs projection (crude): Guardians 3.93 · Rays 4.35

Our projected total: 8.3 · Away win: 45% · Home win: 55%

Ballpark Pal (their model, next to our crude line above):

Source	CLE runs	TB runs	Total	CLE win	TB win	Park HR	Lineups	As of
Ballpark Pal	3.61	4.45	8.06	40.8%	59.2%	−3%	official	20:30 UTC

Starters side by side

Foster Griffin (LHP) vs Tampa Bay Rays · AWAY · NIGHT

Leaky pitches: none

Role & workload

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 31 starts in 32 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Usage: usually 5.3 IP per start (24 batters, ~2.7 times through the order)

Usual IP per start (median): 5.3

Usual IP per start (mean): 5.57

Last 5 starts (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 6.0, 2.3, 4.0, 6.0

Batters per start (median): 24

Pitches per start (median): 92

Times through the order: ~2.7

Usually leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Opener: no

Games: 32 (starts 31)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Ballpark Pal projectiontheir model, shown next to ours

Projected innings: 4.8

Projected batters faced: 20.7

Projected strikeouts: 4.5

Strikeout lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Line	Over %	Fair odds
0.5	98.0%	-4900
1.5	93.0%	-1329
2.5	81.9%	-452
3.5	66.1%	-195
4.5	47.8%	+109
5.5	31.1%	+222
6.5	17.2%	+481
7.5	9.0%	+1011
8.5	4.5%	+2122
9.5	1.7%	+5782
10.5	0.6%	+16567
11.5	0.3%	+33233

Projected HR allowed: 0.65

Projected runs allowed: 2.30

Win probability: 14.0%

Quality start probability: 19.4%

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Strikeouts by side

	K%	whiff%	L5 K%	L5 whiff%
all	22.5%	23.5%	25.5%	25.5%
vs LHB	29.7%	25.3%	32.4%	22.0%
vs RHB	19.7%	22.9%	22.1%	27.2%

HR/9 ladder by side

HR/9	Szn	L10	L5	L3	Last
vs LHB ◀	1.26	0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00
vs RHB	1.13	0.79	0.00	0.00	0.00

Tonight's splits (home/away · day/night)

Away split: 88.2 IP · 10 HR · 1.02 HR/9 · .677 OPS against · 84 K / 371 BF

Night split: 100.1 IP · 13 HR · 1.17 HR/9 · .678 OPS against · 93 K / 417 BF

Mix by side, last 5 starts

Mix 15%+ to LHB (last 5 starts): Cutter 21%, Sinker 34%, Sweeper 34%

Mix 15%+ to RHB (last 5 starts): Changeup 21%, Cutter 37%, Four-Seam 16%

Attack side: LHB · recent HR/9 0.00

Location by side

Vs LHB — all pitches, last 5 starts

0.8%1 p

4.8%6 p

8.8%11 p

7.2%9 p

8.8%11 p

6.4%8 p

8.0%10 p

3.2%4 p

Pitches: 125

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 56%

Vs LHB — Cutter (21% of his mix to LHB)

0.0%0 p

15.4%4 p

11.5%3 p

7.7%2 p

11.5%3 p

7.7%2 p

11.5%3 p

7.7%2 p

0.0%0 p

Pitches: 26 — THIN

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 73%

Vs LHB — Sinker (34% of his mix to LHB)

0.0%0 p

2.3%1 p

4.7%2 p

0.0%0 p

7.0%3 p

16.3%7 p

7.0%3 p

Pitches: 43 — THIN

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 51%

Vs LHB — Sweeper (34% of his mix to LHB)

0.0%0 p

7.0%3 p

9.3%4 p

7.0%3 p

9.3%4 p

2.3%1 p

Pitches: 43 — THIN

Window: last 5 starts (4 games)

In-zone share: 46%

Vs RHB — all pitches, last 5 starts

4.0%10 p

4.8%12 p

3.2%8 p

5.2%13 p

8.5%21 p

5.7%14 p

2.0%5 p

6.5%16 p

4.0%10 p

Pitches: 248

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 44%

Vs RHB — Changeup (21% of his mix to RHB)

0.0%0 p

3.9%2 p

2.0%1 p

3.9%2 p

2.0%1 p

0.0%0 p

7.8%4 p

9.8%5 p

Pitches: 51 — THIN

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 29%

Vs RHB — Cutter (37% of his mix to RHB)

7.7%7 p

5.5%5 p

3.3%3 p

9.9%9 p

7.7%7 p

4.4%4 p

1.1%1 p

3.3%3 p

1.1%1 p

Pitches: 91

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 44%

Vs RHB — Four-Seam (16% of his mix to RHB)

5.1%2 p

7.7%3 p

5.1%2 p

15.4%6 p

0.0%0 p

2.6%1 p

7.7%3 p

0.0%0 p

Pitches: 39 — THIN

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 49%

Strikeouts per start

Strikeouts per start — line 5.5 · L5 2/5 (40%) · L10 4/10 (40%) · L20 4/12 (33%)

AZ
7/25ATL
7/31NYM
8/6DET
8/12SF
8/18COL
8/23KC
8/29DET
9/4BAL
9/9CWS
9/15BOS
9/23CWS
10/7

Tampa Bay Rays team K% ranks

Tampa Bay Rays team K% (rank 1 = strikes out most)

Season	18.7%	30 of 30
L15 days	18.8%	24 of 30
L30 days	21.5%	19 of 30
Home	18.6%	29 of 30
vs LHP	18.1%	30 of 30

Drew Rasmussen (RHP) vs Cleveland Guardians · HOME · NIGHT

Leaky pitches: Four-Seam (to LHB)

Role & workload

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 31 starts in 31 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Usage: usually 6.0 IP per start (24 batters, ~2.7 times through the order)

Usual IP per start (median): 6.0

Usual IP per start (mean): 5.81

Last 5 starts (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 7.0, 5.0, 6.7, 8.0

Batters per start (median): 24

Pitches per start (median): 91

Times through the order: ~2.7

Usually leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Opener: no

Games: 31 (starts 31)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-03 (9 days ago)

Ballpark Pal projectiontheir model, shown next to ours

Projected innings: 5.9

Projected batters faced: 23.6

Projected strikeouts: 5.1

Strikeout lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Line	Over %	Fair odds
0.5	98.5%	-6567
1.5	95.5%	-2122
2.5	87.6%	-706
3.5	74.9%	-298
4.5	58.4%	-140
5.5	42.0%	+138
6.5	25.8%	+288
7.5	14.4%	+594
8.5	7.0%	+1329
9.5	2.8%	+3471
10.5	1.2%	+8233
11.5	0.3%	+33233

Projected HR allowed: 0.45

Projected runs allowed: 1.83

Win probability: 38.5%

Quality start probability: 51.5%

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Strikeouts by side

	K%	whiff%	L5 K%	L5 whiff%
all	25.8%	25.5%	28.9%	31.1%
vs LHB	28.2%	27.0%	39.4%	37.1%
vs RHB	22.4%	23.1%	16.4%	22.1%

HR/9 ladder by side

HR/9	Szn	L10	L5	L3	Last
vs LHB ◀	0.99	0.30	0.58	0.00	0.00
vs RHB	0.77	0.36	0.00	0.00	—

Tonight's splits (home/away · day/night)

Home split: 84.2 IP · 5 HR · 0.53 HR/9 · .572 OPS against · 86 K / 336 BF

Night split: 86.2 IP · 8 HR · 0.83 HR/9 · .549 OPS against · 85 K / 332 BF

Mix by side, last 5 starts

Mix 15%+ to LHB (last 5 starts): Changeup 27%, Cutter 27%, Four-Seam 23% LEAKY, Sinker 21%

Mix 15%+ to RHB (last 5 starts): Cutter 34%, Four-Seam 23%, Sinker 32%

Attack side: LHB · recent HR/9 0.29

Location by side

Vs LHB — all pitches, last 5 starts

5.6%15 p

8.2%22 p

6.3%17 p

3.7%10 p

8.2%22 p

8.5%23 p

1.1%3 p

5.2%14 p

3.7%10 p

Pitches: 270

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 50%

Vs LHB — Changeup (27% of his mix to LHB)

5.6%4 p

0.0%0 p

5.6%4 p

6.9%5 p

5.6%4 p

2.8%2 p

12.5%9 p

1.4%1 p

Pitches: 72

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 40%

Vs LHB — Cutter (27% of his mix to LHB)

4.0%3 p

5.4%4 p

1.4%1 p

9.5%7 p

14.9%11 p

0.0%0 p

2.7%2 p

5.4%4 p

Pitches: 74

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 49%

Vs LHB — Four-Seam (23% of his mix to LHB) LEAKY

4.9%3 p

14.8%9 p

11.5%7 p

4.9%3 p

6.6%4 p

3.3%2 p

1.6%1 p

0.0%0 p

1.6%1 p

Pitches: 61

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 49%

Vs LHB — Sinker (21% of his mix to LHB)

8.9%5 p

16.1%9 p

10.7%6 p

3.6%2 p

8.9%5 p

0.0%0 p

3.6%2 p

5.4%3 p

Pitches: 56 — THIN

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 66%

Vs RHB — all pitches, last 5 starts

0.9%2 p

4.3%9 p

5.2%11 p

4.3%9 p

7.6%16 p

10.5%22 p

5.2%11 p

7.1%15 p

Pitches: 210

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 52%

Vs RHB — Cutter (34% of his mix to RHB)

0.0%0 p

7.0%5 p

8.4%6 p

1.4%1 p

5.6%4 p

11.3%8 p

0.0%0 p

4.2%3 p

9.9%7 p

Pitches: 71

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 48%

Vs RHB — Four-Seam (23% of his mix to RHB)

2.1%1 p

8.3%4 p

0.0%0 p

10.4%5 p

12.5%6 p

2.1%1 p

4.2%2 p

Pitches: 48 — THIN

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 46%

Vs RHB — Sinker (32% of his mix to RHB)

1.5%1 p

4.4%3 p

1.5%1 p

10.3%7 p

8.8%6 p

11.8%8 p

13.2%9 p

7.3%5 p

Pitches: 68

Window: last 5 starts (5 games)

In-zone share: 66%

Strikeouts per start

Strikeouts per start — line 5.5 · L5 3/5 (60%) · L10 5/10 (50%) · L20 7/12 (58%)

CLE
7/26CWS
8/1SEA
8/7ATH
8/12TOR
8/19DET
8/24SD
8/30TEX
9/5HOU
9/11ATH
9/17NYY
9/22NYY
10/3

Cleveland Guardians team K% ranks

Cleveland Guardians team K% (rank 1 = strikes out most)

Season	20.7%	26 of 30
L15 days	18.6%	25 of 30
L30 days	17.0%	29 of 30
Away	20.4%	27 of 30
vs RHP	20.6%	25 of 30

Bullpens

Cleveland Guardians pen

Behind: Foster Griffin

Closer: Cade Smith

Pen HR/9 vs LHB: 0.84 (777 BF)

Pen HR/9 vs RHB: 0.84 (815 BF)

Pen barrel % vs LHB: 8.0

Pen barrel % vs RHB: 7.7

Available tonight: 7 of 7 relief arms

Flagged: none

Arms (leverage first, rotation arms last):

Cade Smith (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 42 saves in 74 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 22)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 74 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 8, 8, 8

Games: 74 (starts 0)

Saves: 42

Holds: 1

Games finished: 64

Blown saves: 5

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 days: 3 appearances, 4.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.7

Hunter Gaddis (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 34 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 73 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 6, 6, 7

Games: 73 (starts 0)

Saves: 1

Holds: 34

Games finished: 4

Blown saves: 6

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 days: 3 appearances, 3.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.3, 1.0, 0.3, 1.3, 1.3

Erik Sabrowski (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 29 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 64 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 6, 5, 6

Games: 64 (starts 0)

Saves: 1

Holds: 29

Games finished: 5

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.7, 0.7, 1.0, 0.3

Matt Festa (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 7 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 66 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 3, 9, 5, 8, 9

Games: 66 (starts 0)

Saves: 1

Holds: 7

Games finished: 20

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-25 (17 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.3, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7, 1.0

Shawn Armstrong (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 10 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 44 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 5, 7, 7, 4, 3

Games: 44 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 10

Games finished: 9

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7, 1.7

Tim Herrin (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 17 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 70 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 4, 8, 7, 5

Games: 70 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 17

Games finished: 8

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3

Daniel Espino (RHP) — OPENER — usually 1.0 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: OPENER

Role basis: 4 opener starts among 16 games at a median 1.0 IP per start; no closer or setup usage (0 saves, 1 holds)

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 4 starts)

Batters per start: 6 (~0.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 23 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 16 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 8, 6, 6, 5

Games: 16 (starts 4)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 0.7

Gavin Williams (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — enters ~9th — HEAVY LAST 5 DAYS

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 34 starts in 35 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 34 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 96 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 35 (starts 34)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 1

Availability: HEAVY LAST 5 DAYS

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 3.3, 5.0, 1.0, 5.7

Slade Cecconi (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 21 starts in 28 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 21 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 86 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 21)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.7, 3.0, 2.3, 2.0, 1.0

Tanner Bibee (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — enters ~5th — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 33 starts in 34 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 33 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 34 (starts 33)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 4.3, 6.7, 4.7, 6.0, 0.3

Joey Cantillo (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~2nd — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 30 starts in 34 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 30 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 88 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 34 (starts 30)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.3, 4.0, 6.0, 5.0, 1.7

Parker Messick (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 34 starts in 34 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 34 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 34 (starts 34)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.0, 3.0, 4.3, 2.3

Tampa Bay Rays pen

Behind: Drew Rasmussen

Closer: Bryan Baker

Pen HR/9 vs LHB: 1.13 (948 BF)

Pen HR/9 vs RHB: 1.41 (1190 BF)

Pen barrel % vs LHB: 7.3

Pen barrel % vs RHB: 10.0

Available tonight: 8 of 8 relief arms

Flagged: none

Arms (leverage first, rotation arms last):

Bryan Baker (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 44 saves in 68 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 68 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 9, 9, 9

Games: 68 (starts 0)

Saves: 44

Holds: 2

Games finished: 55

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Tyler Wells (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 15 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 9, 9, 8, 7

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 15

Games finished: 19

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-12 (30 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0

Cam Booser (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 14 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 44 games)

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 6, 5, 8

Games: 44 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 14

Games finished: 6

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 0.3, 0.7

Cole Sulser (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 12 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 2 starts)

Batters per start: 8 (~0.9 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 51 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 8, 8, 9

Games: 51 (starts 2)

Saves: 3

Holds: 12

Games finished: 13

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Ian Seymour (LHP) — SETUP — usually 2.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 16 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 2.0 IP per outing (median of 49 games)

Batters per outing: 7 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 3, 3, 6, 4

Games: 49 (starts 16)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 7

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 0.3, 3.0, 1.3

Kevin Kelly (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 34 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 72 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 9, 7, 7, 8

Games: 72 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 34

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0, 0.3

Steven Matz (LHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.5 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 11 starts among 36 appearances

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 11 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 77 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.5 IP per outing (median of 36 games)

Batters per outing: 6 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 36 (starts 11)

Saves: 1

Holds: 1

Games finished: 7

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, 1.0

Brody Hopkins (RHP) — MIDDLE RELIEF — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: MIDDLE RELIEF

Role basis: 6 games, median 1.0 IP per outing, median entry 6.5 inning, 0 holds, 0 saves

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 6 games)

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.5)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 7, 6, 7, 5

Games: 6 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 0

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 1.0

Griffin Jax (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 35 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 18 (~2.0 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 67 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 35 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 3

Games finished: 1

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0

Freddy Peralta (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 33 starts in 33 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 33 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 93 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 33)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-05 (7 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.0, 5.7, 5.3, 4.7

Nick Martinez (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.3, 5.0, 6.0, 2.7, 3.7

BATTER-FIRSTJunior Caminero (RHB, slot 3) vs Foster Griffin · model 15.3%

Model & price

Model HR %: 15.3%

Best HR price: +4500 @ betrivers (2 books · median +2465)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 20.9% (fair +378)

Our model HR %: 15.3%

Difference: Ballpark Pal +5.6 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.23

Projected PA (sim): 4.3

Ballpark Pal's starter: Foster Griffin (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Foster Griffin: 2.9% neutral

HR per PA vs Foster Griffin, park-adjusted: 2.9%

vs his typical HR rate: −23%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: −20%

Strikeout per PA vs Foster Griffin: 22.0%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +7%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.03

Stadium only: ×0.99

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.04

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	68.7%	-219
Hits	1.5	28.5%	+251
Total bases	0.5	68.7%	-219
Total bases	1.5	43.3%	+131
Total bases	2.5	29.5%	+239

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs LHP 2026: .916 OPS · 8 HR · 195 PA

Batter is: HOME · .934 OPS · 22 HR · 345 PA

Night: .912 OPS · 26 HR · 424 PA

Day: .843 OPS · 16 HR · 278 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.333	1 for 3	3	1	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.333	1 for 3	3	3	THIN
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.250	1 for 4	4	1	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.300	3 for 10	12	3

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 41 PA · .263 / .317 / .395 · ISO .132 · wOBA .315

Hits: 7 1B · 2 2B · 0 3B · 1 HR · 3 BB · 7 K

Contact: GB 45% · LD 23% · FB 13%

Quality: 4 barrels (13%) · hard-hit 48% · 92.6 mph on 31 BBE

Last 10 games vs LHP: 10 games · 16 PA · .267 / .312 / .333 · ISO .067 · wOBA .290

Hits: 3 1B · 1 2B · 0 3B · 0 HR · 1 BB · 4 K

Contact: GB 73% · LD 9% · FB 18%

Quality: 1 barrels (9%) · hard-hit 55% · 92.7 mph on 11 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Griffin: never faced him

Escape: PARTIAL — escape: Cutter 37%

Wind: roof closed — no wind effect

vs Griffin's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-04 to 10-07)

Pitches to RHB in the window: 248

Mix to RHB (3%+ use): Cutter 37% · Changeup 21% · Four-Seam 16% · Sweeper 14% · Curve 6% · Sinker 4% · Splitter 3%

vs Griffin's mix (2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .255

Pooled on those pitches: .299

At-bats: 144 (43 hits)

HR: 7

Weighted xBA: .293

Pooled SLG: .500

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 83%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (37%)	.200	2 for 10	.217	.200	0	7%	76
Changeup (21%)	.283	13 for 46	.315	.370	1	27%	203
Four-Seam (16%)	.316	12 for 38	.299	.658	3	21%	185
Sweeper (14%)	.333	2 for 6	.367	.500	0	23%	32	THIN
Curve (6%)	.200	3 for 15	.236	.467	1	19%	67
Sinker (4%)	.393	11 for 28	.366	.643	2	10%	122
Splitter (3%)	.000	0 for 1	.663	.000	0	0%	4	THIN

vs Griffin's mix (last 30 days, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .295

Pooled on those pitches: .235

At-bats: 17 (4 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .189

Pooled SLG: .353

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 0%

Sample: THIN (under 20 AB)

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (37%)	.500	1 for 2	.172	.500	0	0%	13	THIN
Changeup (21%)	.167	1 for 6	.363	.167	0	36%	27	THIN
Four-Seam (16%)	.250	1 for 4	.170	.500	0	33%	22	THIN
Sweeper (14%)	.000	0 for 1	.000	.000	0	33%	7	THIN
Curve (6%)	.500	1 for 2	.286	1.000	0	33%	5	THIN
Sinker (4%)	.000	0 for 2	.059	.000	0	17%	13	THIN
Splitter (3%)	—	never seen	—	—	—	—	0	THIN

Four-Seam16% of his mix to RHB, last 5 starts · EXCEPTIONAL

His 2026 season vs LHP: x0.858 · 21% barrels · 3 HR on 29 BBE

2026 vs LHP: .316 (38 AB) · 69% in the air · 94.8 mph · 52% hard-hit · 217 ft avg · 3 HR on 29 BBE

Last 10 games vs LHP on it: .000 (1 AB) · 100% in the air · 92.7 mph · 0% hard-hit · 194 ft avg · 0 HR on 1 BBE

Last-10 check: NO RECENT DATA — under 2 balls in play on it in his last 10 games

Zone overlap vs Griffin

Foster Griffin (LHP, starter) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

4.0%7 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%11 BIP · 3 HR

3.2%8 BIP · 0 HR

5.2%6 BIP · 0 HR

8.5%15 BIP · 1 HR

5.7%14 BIP · 0 HR

2.0%4 BIP · 0 HR

6.5%11 BIP · 0 HR

4.0%15 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 248 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 91 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 133

Expected xSLG on his locations: .608

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.6

Overlap coverage: 44% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .554

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.054

Changeup (CH): Foster Griffin's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs LHP

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 1 HR

3.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

2.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%3 BIP · 0 HR

2.0%5 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

7.8%2 BIP · 0 HR

9.8%10 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 51 pitches to RHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 29%

Batter sample: 25 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 40

Expected xSLG on his locations: .385

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 16% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .538

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.153

THIN: pitcher location 51 pitches (< 60)

Cutter (FC): Foster Griffin's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs LHP

7.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

5.5%1 BIP · 0 HR

3.3%0 BIP · 0 HR

9.9%1 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%2 BIP · 0 HR

4.4%0 BIP · 0 HR

1.1%1 BIP · 0 HR

3.3%1 BIP · 0 HR

1.1%0 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 91 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 7 balls in play in zone vs LHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 8

Expected xSLG on his locations: .315

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 0% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .540

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.225

THIN: batter 7 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Foster Griffin's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs LHP

5.1%5 BIP · 1 HR

7.7%5 BIP · 1 HR

5.1%5 BIP · 0 HR

5.1%3 BIP · 0 HR

15.4%2 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%2 BIP · 0 HR

2.6%0 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 39 pitches to RHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 23 balls in play in zone vs LHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 29

Expected xSLG on his locations: .860

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.7

Overlap coverage: 23% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.290

THIN: pitcher location 39 pitches (< 60); batter 23 BIP in zone (< 25)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Cleveland Guardians — behind Foster Griffin

Pen HR/9 to RHB: 0.84 (815 BF)

Pen barrel % to RHB: 7.7

Pen K % to RHB: 26.5

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (7 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Cade Smith

Available tonight: Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Matt Festa, Shawn Armstrong, Tim Herrin, Daniel Espino

Not available / flagged: none

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Matt Festa, Shawn Armstrong, Tim Herrin, Daniel Espino

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 8 RHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.000	0 for 1	0	1	1	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.286	2 for 7	0	9	3	THIN

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Matt Festa (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Cade Smith (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 42 saves in 74 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 22)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 74 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.09 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 8, 8, 8

Games: 74 (starts 0)

Saves: 42

Holds: 1

Games finished: 64

Blown saves: 5

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 days: 3 appearances, 4.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 132 BF (41.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.87

Barrel% vs RHB: 9.7 (72 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 44.4

K% vs RHB: 34.1

AVG against vs RHB: .207 (116 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .328

xSLG against vs RHB: .327

Last 30 days vs RHB: 19 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 2.01 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .105 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 63.4%, Sweeper 20.2%, Splitter 16.4%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (68 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 59% · Splitter 32% · Sweeper 9%

vs Smith's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .272

Pooled on those pitches: .253

At-bats: 170 (43 hits)

HR: 14

Weighted xBA: .258

Pooled SLG: .541

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (59%)	.286	24 for 84	.277	.607	8	20%	415
Splitter (32%)	.263	5 for 19	.240	.632	2	38%	106
Sweeper (9%)	.209	14 for 67	.190	.433	4	34%	272

History: vs Smith (career): 1-4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K · .250 BA, .500 SLG, .250 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.1%

K per PA: 36.0%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −8

Batter percentile: 0

Pitcher percentile: 20

Cade Smith (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

1.5%19 BIP · 1 HR

7.3%23 BIP · 4 HR

7.3%9 BIP · 1 HR

4.4%44 BIP · 4 HR

4.4%55 BIP · 6 HR

5.9%47 BIP · 3 HR

5.9%21 BIP · 2 HR

10.3%21 BIP · 3 HR

10.3%32 BIP · 2 HR

Pitcher sample: 68 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (11 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 57%

Batter sample: 271 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 376

Expected xSLG on his locations: .722

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.6

Overlap coverage: 57% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .540

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.182

Hunter Gaddis (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 34 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 73 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.89 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 6, 6, 7

Games: 73 (starts 0)

Saves: 1

Holds: 34

Games finished: 4

Blown saves: 6

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 days: 3 appearances, 3.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.3, 1.0, 0.3, 1.3, 1.3

Sample vs RHB: 139 BF (50.2% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 0

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs RHB: 5.0 (101 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 30.7

K% vs RHB: 18.7

AVG against vs RHB: .195 (123 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .236

xSLG against vs RHB: .325

Last 30 days vs RHB: 26 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .364 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Slider 55.9%, Four-Seam 32.4%, Changeup 11.3%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (94 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 44% · Slider 41% · Changeup 15%

vs Gaddis's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .252

Pooled on those pitches: .256

At-bats: 199 (51 hits)

HR: 14

Weighted xBA: .268

Pooled SLG: .518

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (44%)	.286	24 for 84	.277	.607	8	20%	415
Slider (41%)	.258	24 for 93	.286	.505	6	26%	366
Changeup (15%)	.136	3 for 22	.192	.227	0	27%	114

History: vs Gaddis (career): 2-3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K · .667 BA, 1.000 SLG, .333 ISO · 2026: 4 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.5%

K per PA: 23.5%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +4

Batter percentile: 24

Pitcher percentile: 17

Hunter Gaddis (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

7.5%19 BIP · 1 HR

11.7%23 BIP · 4 HR

7.5%9 BIP · 1 HR

2.1%44 BIP · 4 HR

5.3%55 BIP · 6 HR

9.6%47 BIP · 3 HR

0.0%21 BIP · 2 HR

1.1%21 BIP · 3 HR

10.6%32 BIP · 2 HR

Pitcher sample: 94 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (13 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 55%

Batter sample: 271 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 376

Expected xSLG on his locations: .719

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.9

Overlap coverage: 55% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .523

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.196

Erik Sabrowski (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 29 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 64 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.81 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 6, 5, 6

Games: 64 (starts 0)

Saves: 1

Holds: 29

Games finished: 5

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.7, 0.7, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs RHB: 137 BF (62.8% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 2

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.56

Barrel% vs RHB: 10.3 (58 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 41.4

K% vs RHB: 40.9

AVG against vs RHB: .135 (111 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .234

xSLG against vs RHB: .284

Last 30 days vs RHB: 23 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .053 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 66.3%, Curve 22.8%, Slider 10.9%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (95 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 61% · Slider 24% · Curve 15%

vs Sabrowski's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .271

Pooled on those pitches: .265

At-bats: 68 (18 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .280

Pooled SLG: .559

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (61%)	.316	12 for 38	.299	.658	3	21%	185
Slider (24%)	.200	3 for 15	.257	.400	1	15%	76
Curve (15%)	.200	3 for 15	.236	.467	1	19%	67

History: vs Sabrowski: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.9%

K per PA: 31.7%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +1

Batter percentile: 13

Pitcher percentile: 13

Erik Sabrowski (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

4.2%7 BIP · 1 HR

7.4%11 BIP · 3 HR

2.1%8 BIP · 0 HR

2.1%6 BIP · 0 HR

11.6%15 BIP · 1 HR

10.5%14 BIP · 0 HR

3.2%4 BIP · 0 HR

5.3%11 BIP · 0 HR

5.3%15 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 95 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (9 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 91 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 133

Expected xSLG on his locations: .665

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.6

Overlap coverage: 52% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .559

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.106

Matt Festa (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 7 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 66 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.01 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 3, 9, 5, 8, 9

Games: 66 (starts 0)

Saves: 1

Holds: 7

Games finished: 20

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-25 (17 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.3, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 156 BF (53.8% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 5

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.23

Barrel% vs RHB: 8.7 (104 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 42.3

K% vs RHB: 21.8

AVG against vs RHB: .230 (135 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .393

xSLG against vs RHB: .383

Last 30 days vs RHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 4.78 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .167 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 45.6%, Sweeper 39.9%, Sinker 10.0%, Cutter 4.3%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 51 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 46% · Sweeper 40% · Sinker 10% · Cutter 4%

vs Festa's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .262

Pooled on those pitches: .291

At-bats: 302 (88 hits)

HR: 22

Weighted xBA: .244

Pooled SLG: .550

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (46%)	.286	24 for 84	.277	.607	8	20%	415
Sweeper (40%)	.209	14 for 67	.190	.433	4	34%	272
Sinker (10%)	.319	36 for 113	.272	.549	7	10%	441
Cutter (4%)	.368	14 for 38	.328	.632	3	14%	158

History: vs Festa (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 3 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.6%

K per PA: 21.5%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +7

Batter percentile: 42

Pitcher percentile: 14

Matt Festa (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.3%19 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%23 BIP · 4 HR

4.8%9 BIP · 1 HR

4.5%44 BIP · 4 HR

10.3%55 BIP · 6 HR

11.8%47 BIP · 3 HR

0.8%21 BIP · 2 HR

6.2%21 BIP · 3 HR

5.3%32 BIP · 2 HR

Pitcher sample: 601 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 51 pitches, below 60) (61 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 54%

Batter sample: 271 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 376

Expected xSLG on his locations: .703

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.0

Overlap coverage: 54% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .546

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.157

Shawn Armstrong (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 10 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 44 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.89 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 5, 7, 7, 4, 3

Games: 44 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 10

Games finished: 9

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 79 BF (47.6% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 2

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.97

Barrel% vs RHB: 3.9 (51 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 31.4

K% vs RHB: 17.7

AVG against vs RHB: .215 (65 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .338

xSLG against vs RHB: .305

Last 30 days vs RHB: 6 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sweeper 33.3%, Sinker 23.6%, Four-Seam 23.3%, Cutter 19.8%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 25 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sweeper 33% · Sinker 24% · Four-Seam 23% · Cutter 20%

vs Armstrong's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .284

Pooled on those pitches: .291

At-bats: 302 (88 hits)

HR: 22

Weighted xBA: .257

Pooled SLG: .550

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sweeper (33%)	.209	14 for 67	.190	.433	4	34%	272
Sinker (24%)	.319	36 for 113	.272	.549	7	10%	441
Four-Seam (23%)	.286	24 for 84	.277	.607	8	20%	415
Cutter (20%)	.368	14 for 38	.328	.632	3	14%	158

History: vs Armstrong (career): 0-2, 0 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 6 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Shawn Armstrong (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.7%19 BIP · 1 HR

7.7%23 BIP · 4 HR

4.1%9 BIP · 1 HR

5.0%44 BIP · 4 HR

9.4%55 BIP · 6 HR

10.9%47 BIP · 3 HR

2.1%21 BIP · 2 HR

3.0%21 BIP · 3 HR

8.0%32 BIP · 2 HR

Pitcher sample: 339 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 25 pitches, below 60) (40 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 55%

Batter sample: 271 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 376

Expected xSLG on his locations: .698

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.7

Overlap coverage: 55% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .537

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.161

Tim Herrin (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 17 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 70 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.84 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 4, 8, 7, 5

Games: 70 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 17

Games finished: 8

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs RHB: 136 BF (54.4% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.84

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.8 (88 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 42.0

K% vs RHB: 19.9

AVG against vs RHB: .234 (111 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .387

xSLG against vs RHB: .389

Last 30 days vs RHB: 17 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .267 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Curve 36.6%, Four-Seam 24.8%, Slider 22.0%, Sinker 15.9%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (86 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Curve 49% · Sinker 22% · Slider 22% · Four-Seam 7%

vs Herrin's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .251

Pooled on those pitches: .302

At-bats: 96 (29 hits)

HR: 7

Weighted xBA: .274

Pooled SLG: .583

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Curve (49%)	.200	3 for 15	.236	.467	1	19%	67
Sinker (22%)	.393	11 for 28	.366	.643	2	10%	122
Slider (22%)	.200	3 for 15	.257	.400	1	15%	76
Four-Seam (7%)	.316	12 for 38	.299	.658	3	21%	185

History: vs Herrin (career): 1-2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K · .500 BA, 2.000 SLG, 1.500 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tim Herrin (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

1.2%7 BIP · 1 HR

1.2%11 BIP · 3 HR

1.2%8 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%15 BIP · 1 HR

7.0%14 BIP · 0 HR

8.1%4 BIP · 0 HR

12.8%11 BIP · 0 HR

9.3%15 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 86 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 50%

Batter sample: 91 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 133

Expected xSLG on his locations: .414

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 1.6

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .556

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.142

Daniel Espino (RHP) — OPENER — usually 1.0 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: OPENER

Role basis: 4 opener starts among 16 games at a median 1.0 IP per start; no closer or setup usage (0 saves, 1 holds)

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 4 starts)

Batters per start: 6 (~0.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 23 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 16 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.04 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 8, 6, 6, 5

Games: 16 (starts 4)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 0.7

Sample vs RHB: 36 BF (49.3% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 3.19

Barrel% vs RHB: 16.7 (18 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 33.3

K% vs RHB: 38.9

AVG against vs RHB: .281 (32 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .594

xSLG against vs RHB: .404

Last 30 days vs RHB: 14 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 5.46 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .273 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 59.3%, Slider 36.7%, Curve 4.0%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 41.5, Slider 22.6

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (63 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 60% · Slider 37% · Curve 3%

vs Espino's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .271

Pooled on those pitches: .255

At-bats: 200 (51 hits)

HR: 15

Weighted xBA: .278

Pooled SLG: .525

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (60%)	.286	24 for 84	.277	.607	8	20%	415
Slider (37%)	.258	24 for 93	.286	.505	6	26%	366
Curve (3%)	.130	3 for 23	.189	.304	1	36%	85

History: vs Espino: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Daniel Espino (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.3%19 BIP · 1 HR

3.2%23 BIP · 4 HR

6.3%9 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%44 BIP · 4 HR

6.3%55 BIP · 6 HR

6.3%47 BIP · 3 HR

0.0%21 BIP · 2 HR

3.2%21 BIP · 3 HR

11.1%32 BIP · 2 HR

Pitcher sample: 63 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (6 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 48%

Batter sample: 271 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 376

Expected xSLG on his locations: .685

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.0

Overlap coverage: 48% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .515

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.170

Gavin Williams (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — enters ~9th — HEAVY LAST 5 DAYS

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 34 starts in 35 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 34 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 96 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 35 (starts 34)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 1

Availability: HEAVY LAST 5 DAYS

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 3.3, 5.0, 1.0, 5.7

Sample vs RHB: 314 BF (39.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 14

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.71

Barrel% vs RHB: 11.4 (185 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 51.4

K% vs RHB: 30.9

AVG against vs RHB: .237 (283 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .410

xSLG against vs RHB: .410

Last 30 days vs RHB: 41 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .167

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sweeper 35.4%, Four-Seam 22.8%, Sinker 21.9%, Curve 15.8%, Cutter 3.2%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Sweeper 48.6, Four-Seam 23.6, Sinker 12.2, Cutter 44.0

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Slade Cecconi (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 21 starts in 28 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 21 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 86 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 21)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.7, 3.0, 2.3, 2.0, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 230 BF (43.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 10

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.66

Barrel% vs RHB: 9.8 (173 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 38.2

K% vs RHB: 17.8

AVG against vs RHB: .288 (212 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .491

xSLG against vs RHB: .459

Last 30 days vs RHB: 7 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Cutter 28.3%, Sinker 24.0%, Four-Seam 23.5%, Sweeper 9.9%, Curve 8.6%, Slider 5.5%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Cutter 28.2, Sinker 9.9, Four-Seam 20.5, Sweeper 32.6, Curve 17.9, Slider 33.3

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tanner Bibee (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — enters ~5th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 33 starts in 34 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 33 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 34 (starts 33)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 4.3, 6.7, 4.7, 6.0, 0.3

Sample vs RHB: 324 BF (41.4% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 7

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.83

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.2 (243 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 40.3

K% vs RHB: 17.0

AVG against vs RHB: .253 (297 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .374

xSLG against vs RHB: .370

Last 30 days vs RHB: 31 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .345

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 30.2%, Cutter 29.0%, Four-Seam 18.3%, Curve 9.5%, Sweeper 6.7%, Changeup 6.3%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 14.5, Cutter 26.0, Four-Seam 12.9, Curve 25.4, Sweeper 21.7, Changeup 24.4

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Joey Cantillo (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~2nd — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 30 starts in 34 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 30 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 88 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 34 (starts 30)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.3, 4.0, 6.0, 5.0, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 519 BF (74.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 14

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.03

Barrel% vs RHB: 7.5 (308 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 40.6

K% vs RHB: 27.4

AVG against vs RHB: .244 (446 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .392

xSLG against vs RHB: .341

Last 30 days vs RHB: 43 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .081

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Curve 32.7%, Four-Seam 31.9%, Changeup 27.7%, Cutter 5.7%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Curve 35.8, Four-Seam 14.2, Changeup 38.8, Cutter 29.5

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Parker Messick (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 34 starts in 34 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 34 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 34 (starts 34)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.0, 3.0, 4.3, 2.3

Sample vs RHB: 563 BF (72.4% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 12

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.82

Barrel% vs RHB: 5.2 (367 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 34.9

K% vs RHB: 27.0

AVG against vs RHB: .203 (516 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .333

xSLG against vs RHB: .343

Last 30 days vs RHB: 65 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.59 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .293

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 43.4%, Changeup 29.7%, Sinker 9.7%, Curve 8.9%, Cutter 5.1%, Slider 3.2%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 18.6, Changeup 35.2, Sinker 5.0, Curve 15.8, Cutter 20.0, Slider 23.1

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 1/5 (20%) · L10 1/10 (10%) · L20 3/20 (15%)

ATL
9/10HOU
9/11HOU
9/12HOU
9/13ATH
9/15ATH
9/16ATH
9/17BOS
9/18BOS
9/19BOS
9/20NYY
9/22NYY
9/22NYY
9/23NYY
9/24PHI
9/25PHI
9/26PHI
9/27NYY
10/3NYY
10/5NYY
10/7

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs LHP on CH/FC/FF (77 BIP)

x0.8826 BIP · 1 HR

x1.6767 BIP · 2 HR

x0.4237 BIP · 0 HR

x0.3965 BIP · 0 HR

x0.6467 BIP · 0 HR

x0.7427 BIP · 0 HR

x0.0452 BIP · 0 HR

x0.2333 BIP · 0 HR

x0.34911 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FC/FF land vs RHB (1440 pitches, 50% in zone)

4.8%

7.2%

6.0%

5.4%

7.6%

6.0%

3.3%

4.9%

4.5%

Spray, last 30d vs LHP on CH/FC/FF: 11 BIP, 0 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs LHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/7	Fried	FC	105.0	-13	12	single
9/25	Sánchez	CH	107.0	28	398	field out
9/22	Fried	CH	104.2	-2	31	grounded into double play
9/22	Rodón	FF	92.7	60	194	field out
9/20	Sandoval	CH	83.7	8	114	field out
9/20	Sandoval	CH	95.2	1	61	single
9/18	Suarez	FC	70.2	-27	4	field out
9/17	Springs	FF	84.1	46	270	field out
9/16	Basso	FF	70.2	86	51	field out
9/16	Basso	FF	104.0	21	402	double
9/8	Suter	CH	74.8	-14	8	single
9/6	Latz	FF	74.9	54	211	field out

BATTER-FIRSTRyan Vilade (RHB, slot 4) vs Foster Griffin · model 11.9%

Model & price

Model HR %: 11.9%

Best HR price: +10000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +5325)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 12.6% (fair +694)

Our model HR %: 11.9%

Difference: Ballpark Pal +0.7 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.13

Projected PA (sim): 4.2

Ballpark Pal's starter: Foster Griffin (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Foster Griffin: 2.5% neutral

HR per PA vs Foster Griffin, park-adjusted: 2.6%

vs his typical HR rate: −1%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: +3%

Strikeout per PA vs Foster Griffin: 26.4%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: 0%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.04

Stadium only: ×1.07

Weather (multiplier deviation): −0.02

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	62.5%	-167
Hits	1.5	21.6%	+363
Total bases	0.5	62.5%	-167
Total bases	1.5	35.4%	+182
Total bases	2.5	20.4%	+390

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs LHP 2026: .818 OPS · 7 HR · 170 PA

Batter is: HOME · .895 OPS · 8 HR · 141 PA

Night: .809 OPS · 8 HR · 183 PA

Day: .631 OPS · 3 HR · 95 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.500	1 for 2	1	2	1	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.500	1 for 2	1	2	1	THIN
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.500	1 for 2	1	2	1	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.500	1 for 2	1	2	1	THIN

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 34 PA · .143 / .294 / .250 · ISO .107 · wOBA .345

Hits: 3 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 1 HR · 6 BB · 8 K

Contact: GB 53% · LD 11% · FB 26%

Quality: 1 barrels (5%) · hard-hit 42% · 84.3 mph on 19 BBE

Last 10 games vs LHP: 10 games · 19 PA · .214 / .421 / .429 · ISO .214 · wOBA .444

Hits: 2 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 1 HR · 5 BB · 3 K

Contact: GB 40% · LD 10% · FB 40%

Quality: 0 barrels (0%) · hard-hit 40% · 80.8 mph on 10 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Griffin: never faced him

Escape: NO ESCAPE

Wind: roof closed — no wind effect

vs Griffin's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-04 to 10-07)

Pitches to RHB in the window: 248

Mix to RHB (3%+ use): Cutter 37% · Changeup 21% · Four-Seam 16% · Sweeper 14% · Curve 6% · Sinker 4% · Splitter 3%

vs Griffin's mix (2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .327

Pooled on those pitches: .310

At-bats: 142 (44 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .291

Pooled SLG: .570

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 83%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (37%)	.429	6 for 14	.352	.714	1	18%	59
Changeup (21%)	.440	11 for 25	.341	.960	3	22%	98
Four-Seam (16%)	.242	15 for 62	.216	.452	3	20%	301
Sweeper (14%)	.000	0 for 5	.110	.000	0	8%	25	THIN
Curve (6%)	.267	4 for 15	.328	.467	1	22%	51
Sinker (4%)	.381	8 for 21	.344	.571	1	10%	97
Splitter (3%)	—	never seen	—	—	—	—	0	THIN

vs Griffin's mix (last 30 days, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .178

Pooled on those pitches: .333

At-bats: 12 (4 hits)

HR: 1

Weighted xBA: .153

Pooled SLG: .583

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 0%

Sample: THIN (under 20 AB)

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (37%)	—	no AB	—	—	—	0%	9	THIN
Changeup (21%)	.000	0 for 1	.000	.000	0	60%	13	THIN
Four-Seam (16%)	.333	1 for 3	.081	1.333	1	9%	21	THIN
Sweeper (14%)	.000	0 for 2	.140	.000	0	0%	3	THIN
Curve (6%)	.250	1 for 4	.511	.250	0	0%	11	THIN
Sinker (4%)	1.000	2 for 2	.761	1.000	0	0%	16	THIN
Splitter (3%)	—	never seen	—	—	—	—	0	THIN

Changeup21% of his mix to RHB, last 5 starts · EXCEPTIONAL

His 2026 season vs LHP: x0.731 · 10% barrels · 3 HR on 21 BBE

2026 vs LHP: .440 (25 AB) · 48% in the air · 90.9 mph · 33% hard-hit · 181 ft avg · 3 HR on 21 BBE

Last 10 games vs LHP on it: .000 (1 AB) · 0% in the air · 0.0 mph · 0% hard-hit · 0 ft avg · 0 HR on 0 BBE

Last-10 check: NO RECENT DATA — under 2 balls in play on it in his last 10 games

Zone overlap vs Griffin

Foster Griffin (LHP, starter) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

4.0%13 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%7 BIP · 1 HR

3.2%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.2%20 BIP · 2 HR

8.5%15 BIP · 1 HR

5.7%7 BIP · 2 HR

2.0%6 BIP · 0 HR

6.5%13 BIP · 2 HR

4.0%13 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 248 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 96 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 121

Expected xSLG on his locations: .616

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.0

Overlap coverage: 41% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .554

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.062

Changeup (CH): Foster Griffin's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs LHP

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%0 BIP · 0 HR

2.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%3 BIP · 0 HR

2.0%3 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

7.8%3 BIP · 2 HR

9.8%5 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 51 pitches to RHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 29%

Batter sample: 15 balls in play in zone vs LHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 21

Expected xSLG on his locations: 1.085

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 23.1

Overlap coverage: 24% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .535

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.550

THIN: pitcher location 51 pitches (< 60); batter 15 BIP in zone (< 25)

Cutter (FC): Foster Griffin's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs LHP

7.7%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.5%1 BIP · 0 HR

3.3%0 BIP · 0 HR

9.9%1 BIP · 1 HR

7.7%0 BIP · 0 HR

4.4%0 BIP · 0 HR

1.1%2 BIP · 0 HR

3.3%0 BIP · 0 HR

1.1%1 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 91 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 7 balls in play in zone vs LHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 10

Expected xSLG on his locations: 1.808

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 39.1

Overlap coverage: 0% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .499

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +1.309

THIN: batter 7 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Foster Griffin's location vs RHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs LHP

5.1%11 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%6 BIP · 1 HR

5.1%1 BIP · 0 HR

5.1%12 BIP · 1 HR

15.4%6 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 1 HR

2.6%1 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%4 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 39 pitches to RHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 42 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 46

Expected xSLG on his locations: .509

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.5

Overlap coverage: 41% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .575

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.066

THIN: pitcher location 39 pitches (< 60)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Cleveland Guardians — behind Foster Griffin

Pen HR/9 to RHB: 0.84 (815 BF)

Pen barrel % to RHB: 7.7

Pen K % to RHB: 26.5

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (7 of 12 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Cade Smith

Available tonight: Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Matt Festa, Shawn Armstrong, Tim Herrin, Daniel Espino

Not available / flagged: none

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Matt Festa, Shawn Armstrong, Tim Herrin, Daniel Espino

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 8 RHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	—	no PA	—	0	0
Last 10 days vs RHP	—	no PA	—	0	0

Arms listed: 12 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Matt Festa (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Cade Smith (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 42 saves in 74 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 22)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 74 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.09 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 8, 8, 8

Games: 74 (starts 0)

Saves: 42

Holds: 1

Games finished: 64

Blown saves: 5

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 days: 3 appearances, 4.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 132 BF (41.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.87

Barrel% vs RHB: 9.7 (72 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 44.4

K% vs RHB: 34.1

AVG against vs RHB: .207 (116 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .328

xSLG against vs RHB: .327

Last 30 days vs RHB: 19 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 2.01 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .105 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 63.4%, Sweeper 20.2%, Splitter 16.4%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (68 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 59% · Splitter 32% · Sweeper 9%

vs Smith's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .204

Pooled on those pitches: .189

At-bats: 37 (7 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .190

Pooled SLG: .351

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 59%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (59%)	.179	5 for 28	.162	.393	2	23%	172
Splitter (32%)	.250	1 for 4	.250	.250	0	25%	5	THIN
Sweeper (9%)	.200	1 for 5	.156	.200	0	38%	39	THIN

History: vs Smith: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.0%

K per PA: 41.0%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −10

Batter percentile: 1

Pitcher percentile: 55

Cade Smith (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

1.5%5 BIP · 0 HR

7.3%4 BIP · 1 HR

7.3%2 BIP · 0 HR

4.4%11 BIP · 1 HR

4.4%10 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%6 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%4 BIP · 0 HR

10.3%7 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 68 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (11 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 57%

Batter sample: 56 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 76

Expected xSLG on his locations: .565

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.4

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .540

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.025

Hunter Gaddis (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 34 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 73 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.89 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 6, 6, 7

Games: 73 (starts 0)

Saves: 1

Holds: 34

Games finished: 4

Blown saves: 6

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 days: 3 appearances, 3.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 0.3, 1.0, 0.3, 1.3, 1.3

Sample vs RHB: 139 BF (50.2% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 0

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.00

Barrel% vs RHB: 5.0 (101 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 30.7

K% vs RHB: 18.7

AVG against vs RHB: .195 (123 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .236

xSLG against vs RHB: .325

Last 30 days vs RHB: 26 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .364 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Slider 55.9%, Four-Seam 32.4%, Changeup 11.3%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (94 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 44% · Slider 41% · Changeup 15%

vs Gaddis's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .302

Pooled on those pitches: .200

At-bats: 40 (8 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .323

Pooled SLG: .500

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 85%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (44%)	.179	5 for 28	.162	.393	2	23%	172
Slider (41%)	.182	2 for 11	.352	.727	2	29%	63
Changeup (15%)	1.000	1 for 1	.714	1.000	0	0%	6	THIN

History: vs Gaddis (career): 1-2, 0 BB, 0 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 4 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.9%

K per PA: 28.6%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −4

Batter percentile: 32

Pitcher percentile: 68

Hunter Gaddis (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

7.5%5 BIP · 0 HR

11.7%4 BIP · 1 HR

7.5%2 BIP · 0 HR

2.1%11 BIP · 1 HR

5.3%10 BIP · 1 HR

9.6%6 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%4 BIP · 0 HR

1.1%7 BIP · 0 HR

10.6%7 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 94 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (13 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 55%

Batter sample: 56 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 76

Expected xSLG on his locations: .597

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.5

Overlap coverage: 48% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .523

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.074

Erik Sabrowski (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 29 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 64 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.81 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 6, 6, 5, 6

Games: 64 (starts 0)

Saves: 1

Holds: 29

Games finished: 5

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.7, 0.7, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs RHB: 137 BF (62.8% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 2

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.56

Barrel% vs RHB: 10.3 (58 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 41.4

K% vs RHB: 40.9

AVG against vs RHB: .135 (111 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .234

xSLG against vs RHB: .284

Last 30 days vs RHB: 23 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .053 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 66.3%, Curve 22.8%, Slider 10.9%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (95 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 61% · Slider 24% · Curve 15%

vs Sabrowski's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .187

Pooled on those pitches: .202

At-bats: 94 (19 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .223

Pooled SLG: .372

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (61%)	.242	15 for 62	.216	.452	3	20%	301
Slider (24%)	.000	0 for 17	.175	.000	0	35%	63
Curve (15%)	.267	4 for 15	.328	.467	1	22%	51

History: vs Sabrowski: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.1%

K per PA: 39.9%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −7

Batter percentile: 10

Pitcher percentile: 62

Erik Sabrowski (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

4.2%13 BIP · 0 HR

7.4%7 BIP · 1 HR

2.1%2 BIP · 0 HR

2.1%20 BIP · 2 HR

11.6%15 BIP · 1 HR

10.5%7 BIP · 2 HR

3.2%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.3%13 BIP · 2 HR

5.3%13 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 95 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (9 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 52%

Batter sample: 96 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 121

Expected xSLG on his locations: .598

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 11.3

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .559

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.039

Matt Festa (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 7 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 66 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.01 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 3, 9, 5, 8, 9

Games: 66 (starts 0)

Saves: 1

Holds: 7

Games finished: 20

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-25 (17 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.3, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 156 BF (53.8% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 5

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.23

Barrel% vs RHB: 8.7 (104 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 42.3

K% vs RHB: 21.8

AVG against vs RHB: .230 (135 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .393

xSLG against vs RHB: .383

Last 30 days vs RHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 4.78 (1 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .167 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 45.6%, Sweeper 39.9%, Sinker 10.0%, Cutter 4.3%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 51 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 46% · Sweeper 40% · Sinker 10% · Cutter 4%

vs Festa's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .192

Pooled on those pitches: .183

At-bats: 71 (13 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .170

Pooled SLG: .282

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 56%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (46%)	.179	5 for 28	.162	.393	2	23%	172
Sweeper (40%)	.200	1 for 5	.156	.200	0	38%	39	THIN
Sinker (10%)	.156	5 for 32	.202	.188	0	9%	110
Cutter (4%)	.333	2 for 6	.307	.333	0	8%	23	THIN

History: vs Festa (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 5 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.7%

K per PA: 27.9%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −1

Batter percentile: 53

Pitcher percentile: 61

Matt Festa (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.3%5 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%4 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%2 BIP · 0 HR

4.5%11 BIP · 1 HR

10.3%10 BIP · 1 HR

11.8%6 BIP · 1 HR

0.8%4 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%7 BIP · 0 HR

5.3%7 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 601 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 51 pitches, below 60) (61 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 54%

Batter sample: 56 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 76

Expected xSLG on his locations: .651

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.1

Overlap coverage: 49% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .546

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.105

Shawn Armstrong (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 10 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 44 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.89 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 5, 7, 7, 4, 3

Games: 44 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 10

Games finished: 9

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 2.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, 0.7, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 79 BF (47.6% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 2

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.97

Barrel% vs RHB: 3.9 (51 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 31.4

K% vs RHB: 17.7

AVG against vs RHB: .215 (65 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .338

xSLG against vs RHB: .305

Last 30 days vs RHB: 6 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sweeper 33.3%, Sinker 23.6%, Four-Seam 23.3%, Cutter 19.8%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 25 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Sweeper 33% · Sinker 24% · Four-Seam 23% · Cutter 20%

vs Armstrong's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .211

Pooled on those pitches: .183

At-bats: 71 (13 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .198

Pooled SLG: .282

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 47%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sweeper (33%)	.200	1 for 5	.156	.200	0	38%	39	THIN
Sinker (24%)	.156	5 for 32	.202	.188	0	9%	110
Four-Seam (23%)	.179	5 for 28	.162	.393	2	23%	172
Cutter (20%)	.333	2 for 6	.307	.333	0	8%	23	THIN

History: vs Armstrong: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Shawn Armstrong (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.7%5 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%4 BIP · 1 HR

4.1%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%11 BIP · 1 HR

9.4%10 BIP · 1 HR

10.9%6 BIP · 1 HR

2.1%4 BIP · 0 HR

3.0%7 BIP · 0 HR

8.0%7 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 339 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 25 pitches, below 60) (40 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 55%

Batter sample: 56 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 76

Expected xSLG on his locations: .639

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.4

Overlap coverage: 51% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .537

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.102

Tim Herrin (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 17 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 70 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.84 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 4, 8, 7, 5

Games: 70 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 17

Games finished: 8

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 days: 2 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs RHB: 136 BF (54.4% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.84

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.8 (88 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 42.0

K% vs RHB: 19.9

AVG against vs RHB: .234 (111 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .387

xSLG against vs RHB: .389

Last 30 days vs RHB: 17 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .267 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Curve 36.6%, Four-Seam 24.8%, Slider 22.0%, Sinker 15.9%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (86 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Curve 49% · Sinker 22% · Slider 22% · Four-Seam 7%

vs Herrin's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .231

Pooled on those pitches: .235

At-bats: 115 (27 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .290

Pooled SLG: .409

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Curve (49%)	.267	4 for 15	.328	.467	1	22%	51
Sinker (22%)	.381	8 for 21	.344	.571	1	10%	97
Slider (22%)	.000	0 for 17	.175	.000	0	35%	63
Four-Seam (7%)	.242	15 for 62	.216	.452	3	20%	301

History: vs Herrin (career): 1-1, 0 BB, 0 K · 1.000 BA, 1.000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tim Herrin (LHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

1.2%13 BIP · 0 HR

1.2%7 BIP · 1 HR

1.2%2 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%20 BIP · 2 HR

4.7%15 BIP · 1 HR

7.0%7 BIP · 2 HR

8.1%6 BIP · 0 HR

12.8%13 BIP · 2 HR

9.3%13 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 86 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 50%

Batter sample: 96 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 121

Expected xSLG on his locations: .643

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.8

Overlap coverage: 49% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 8

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .556

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.087

Daniel Espino (RHP) — OPENER — usually 1.0 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: OPENER

Role basis: 4 opener starts among 16 games at a median 1.0 IP per start; no closer or setup usage (0 saves, 1 holds)

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 1.0 IP (median of 4 starts)

Batters per start: 6 (~0.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 23 (median)

Leaves after inning: 1.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 16 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.04 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 8, 6, 6, 5

Games: 16 (starts 4)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7, 0.7

Sample vs RHB: 36 BF (49.3% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 3

HR/9 vs RHB: 3.19

Barrel% vs RHB: 16.7 (18 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 33.3

K% vs RHB: 38.9

AVG against vs RHB: .281 (32 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .594

xSLG against vs RHB: .404

Last 30 days vs RHB: 14 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 5.46 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .273 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 59.3%, Slider 36.7%, Curve 4.0%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 41.5, Slider 22.6

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (63 pitches to RHB)

His mix to RHB in that window: Four-Seam 60% · Slider 37% · Curve 3%

vs Espino's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .179

Pooled on those pitches: .174

At-bats: 46 (8 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .230

Pooled SLG: .435

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 97%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (60%)	.179	5 for 28	.162	.393	2	23%	172
Slider (37%)	.182	2 for 11	.352	.727	2	29%	63
Curve (3%)	.143	1 for 7	.115	.143	0	44%	22	THIN

History: vs Espino: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Daniel Espino (RHP, pen arm) vs RHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

6.3%5 BIP · 0 HR

3.2%4 BIP · 1 HR

6.3%2 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%11 BIP · 1 HR

6.3%10 BIP · 1 HR

6.3%6 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%4 BIP · 0 HR

3.2%7 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%7 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 63 pitches to RHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (6 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 48%

Batter sample: 56 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 76

Expected xSLG on his locations: .508

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.1

Overlap coverage: 41% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League RHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .515

League reference: league 2026, RHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.007

Gavin Williams (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — enters ~9th — HEAVY LAST 5 DAYS

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 34 starts in 35 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 34 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 96 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 35 (starts 34)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 1

Availability: HEAVY LAST 5 DAYS

Last appearance: 2026-10-10 (2 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 7.0, 3.3, 5.0, 1.0, 5.7

Sample vs RHB: 314 BF (39.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 14

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.71

Barrel% vs RHB: 11.4 (185 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 51.4

K% vs RHB: 30.9

AVG against vs RHB: .237 (283 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .410

xSLG against vs RHB: .410

Last 30 days vs RHB: 41 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .167

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sweeper 35.4%, Four-Seam 22.8%, Sinker 21.9%, Curve 15.8%, Cutter 3.2%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Sweeper 48.6, Four-Seam 23.6, Sinker 12.2, Cutter 44.0

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Slade Cecconi (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~7th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 21 starts in 28 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 21 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 86 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 28 (starts 21)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.7, 3.0, 2.3, 2.0, 1.0

Sample vs RHB: 230 BF (43.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 10

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.66

Barrel% vs RHB: 9.8 (173 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 38.2

K% vs RHB: 17.8

AVG against vs RHB: .288 (212 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .491

xSLG against vs RHB: .459

Last 30 days vs RHB: 7 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Cutter 28.3%, Sinker 24.0%, Four-Seam 23.5%, Sweeper 9.9%, Curve 8.6%, Slider 5.5%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Cutter 28.2, Sinker 9.9, Four-Seam 20.5, Sweeper 32.6, Curve 17.9, Slider 33.3

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Tanner Bibee (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — enters ~5th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 33 starts in 34 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 33 starts)

Batters per start: 24 (~2.7 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 34 (starts 33)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 4.3, 6.7, 4.7, 6.0, 0.3

Sample vs RHB: 324 BF (41.4% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 7

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.83

Barrel% vs RHB: 6.2 (243 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 40.3

K% vs RHB: 17.0

AVG against vs RHB: .253 (297 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .374

xSLG against vs RHB: .370

Last 30 days vs RHB: 31 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .345

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 30.2%, Cutter 29.0%, Four-Seam 18.3%, Curve 9.5%, Sweeper 6.7%, Changeup 6.3%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Sinker 14.5, Cutter 26.0, Four-Seam 12.9, Curve 25.4, Sweeper 21.7, Changeup 24.4

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Joey Cantillo (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~2nd — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 30 starts in 34 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 30 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 88 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 34 (starts 30)

Saves: 0

Holds: 1

Games finished: 0

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 2.3, 4.0, 6.0, 5.0, 1.7

Sample vs RHB: 519 BF (74.5% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 14

HR/9 vs RHB: 1.03

Barrel% vs RHB: 7.5 (308 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 40.6

K% vs RHB: 27.4

AVG against vs RHB: .244 (446 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .392

xSLG against vs RHB: .341

Last 30 days vs RHB: 43 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .081

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Curve 32.7%, Four-Seam 31.9%, Changeup 27.7%, Cutter 5.7%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Curve 35.8, Four-Seam 14.2, Changeup 38.8, Cutter 29.5

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Parker Messick (LHP) — STARTER — usually 5.7 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 34 starts in 34 games, median 5.7 IP per start

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.7 IP (median of 34 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 94 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 34 (starts 34)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-08 (4 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.0, 3.0, 4.3, 2.3

Sample vs RHB: 563 BF (72.4% of his batters)

HR vs RHB: 12

HR/9 vs RHB: 0.82

Barrel% vs RHB: 5.2 (367 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs RHB: 34.9

K% vs RHB: 27.0

AVG against vs RHB: .203 (516 AB)

SLG against vs RHB: .333

xSLG against vs RHB: .343

Last 30 days vs RHB: 65 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs RHB: 0.59 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs RHB: .293

Mix vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 43.4%, Changeup 29.7%, Sinker 9.7%, Curve 8.9%, Cutter 5.1%, Slider 3.2%

Whiff% vs RHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 18.6, Changeup 35.2, Sinker 5.0, Curve 15.8, Cutter 20.0, Slider 23.1

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 1/5 (20%) · L10 1/10 (10%) · L20 1/20 (5%)

SD
8/29SD
8/30NYM
9/1TEX
9/4TEX
9/5TEX
9/6ATL
9/10HOU
9/12HOU
9/13ATH
9/16ATH
9/17BOS
9/18BOS
9/20NYY
9/22NYY
9/23NYY
9/24PHI
9/25PHI
9/26PHI
9/27NYY
10/7

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs LHP on CH/FC/FF (77 BIP)

x0.17913 BIP · 0 HR

x1.2207 BIP · 1 HR

x0.0061 BIP · 0 HR

x0.85114 BIP · 2 HR

x0.3449 BIP · 0 HR

x0.3264 BIP · 2 HR

x0.1703 BIP · 0 HR

x1.2207 BIP · 2 HR

x0.7866 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FC/FF land vs RHB (1440 pitches, 50% in zone)

4.8%

7.2%

6.0%

5.4%

7.6%

6.0%

3.3%

4.9%

4.5%

Spray, last 30d vs LHP on CH/FC/FF: 3 BIP, 1 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs LHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/7	Fried	FF	97.1	37	340	home run
9/25	Mayza	FF	84.0	-23	5	field out
9/16	Basso	FF	103.3	50	302	field out
9/6	Alexander	FF	88.3	61	193	field out
9/4	Macko	FF	90.2	78	58	field out
9/1	Manaea	CH	105.4	12	282	triple
9/1	Manaea	FF	102.9	-7	16	field out
9/1	Manaea	FF	82.1	15	213	single
9/1	Manaea	FF	91.0	5	126	field out
8/30	Ray	FF	77.7	59	173	field out
8/21	Rogers	CH	109.0	-3	30	single
8/21	Rogers	CH	90.4	-39	3	field out

TARGETChase DeLauter (LHB, slot 3) vs Drew Rasmussen · model 12.2% LEAKY: Four-Seam

Model & price

Model HR %: 12.2%

Best HR price: +18000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +9475)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 6.9% (fair +1349)

Our model HR %: 12.2%

Difference: Ballpark Pal −5.3 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.07

Projected PA (sim): 4.4

Ballpark Pal's starter: Drew Rasmussen (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Drew Rasmussen: 1.3% neutral

HR per PA vs Drew Rasmussen, park-adjusted: 1.4%

vs his typical HR rate: −31%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: −28%

Strikeout per PA vs Drew Rasmussen: 16.5%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +6%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.03

Stadium only: ×1.01

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.02

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	61.9%	-162
Hits	1.5	21.5%	+365
Total bases	0.5	61.9%	-162
Total bases	1.5	34.4%	+191
Total bases	2.5	17.6%	+468

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .808 OPS · 13 HR · 380 PA

Batter is: AWAY · .856 OPS · 11 HR · 267 PA

Night: .745 OPS · 10 HR · 357 PA

Day: .953 OPS · 6 HR · 202 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.286	2 for 7	9	3	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.300	3 for 10	12	5
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.250	3 for 12	14	3
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.250	5 for 20	22	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 46 PA · .225 / .326 / .350 · ISO .125 · wOBA .355

Hits: 6 1B · 2 2B · 0 3B · 1 HR · 6 BB · 5 K

Contact: GB 53% · LD 26% · FB 18%

Quality: 1 barrels (3%) · hard-hit 47% · 93.0 mph on 34 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 23 PA · .222 / .391 / .389 · ISO .167 · wOBA .359

Hits: 3 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 1 HR · 5 BB · 1 K

Contact: GB 41% · LD 29% · FB 24%

Quality: 1 barrels (6%) · hard-hit 47% · 91.3 mph on 17 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Rasmussen (career): 2-4 (6 PA), 2 BB, 2 K · .500 BA, .500 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 32 pitches, 2 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Escape: NO ESCAPE

Wind: roof closed — no wind effect

vs Rasmussen's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-05 to 10-03)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 270

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Cutter 27% · Changeup 27% · Four-Seam 23% LEAKY · Sinker 21%

vs Rasmussen's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .276

Pooled on those pitches: .289

At-bats: 235 (68 hits)

HR: 10

Weighted xBA: .308

Pooled SLG: .477

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Cutter (27%)	.219	7 for 32	.302	.406	1	12%	148
Changeup (27%)	.224	11 for 49	.288	.245	0	17%	243
Four-Seam (23%) LEAKY	.308	37 for 120	.272	.575	8	9%	520
Sinker (21%)	.382	13 for 34	.384	.529	1	4%	158

vs Rasmussen's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .058

Pooled on those pitches: .118

At-bats: 17 (2 hits)

HR: 1

Weighted xBA: .330

Pooled SLG: .294

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 0%

Sample: THIN (under 20 AB)

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (27%)	.000	0 for 4	.497	.000	0	0%	18	THIN
Changeup (27%)	.000	0 for 2	.181	.000	0	0%	13	THIN
Four-Seam (23%) LEAKY	.250	2 for 8	.311	.625	1	0%	44	THIN
Sinker (21%)	.000	0 for 3	.324	.000	0	0%	19	THIN

Four-Seam LEAKY23% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · TARGETABLE · TARGET (FIT)

Pitch allows (last 5 starts): 0 hits · 29% hard-hit · 14% barrels

Pitch fly-ball profile: 50% barrels/FB · 50% pull/FB · 29% FB · 0 HR on 7 BBE

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.602 · 14% barrels · 8 HR on 104 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .308 (120 AB) · 51% in the air · 93.1 mph · 48% hard-hit · 191 ft avg · 8 HR on 104 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .250 (8 AB) · 62% in the air · 90.3 mph · 50% hard-hit · 204 ft avg · 1 HR on 8 BBE

Last-10 check: YES — 4 of 5: hits it, in the air, hard, homered

Zone overlap vs Rasmussen

Drew Rasmussen (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.6%13 BIP · 1 HR

8.2%26 BIP · 2 HR

6.3%12 BIP · 1 HR

3.7%28 BIP · 0 HR

8.2%45 BIP · 1 HR

8.5%26 BIP · 3 HR

1.1%27 BIP · 0 HR

5.2%49 BIP · 2 HR

3.7%29 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 270 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 50%

Batter sample: 255 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 307

Expected xSLG on his locations: .609

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.9

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .572

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.037

Changeup (CH): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

5.6%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%7 BIP · 0 HR

6.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%1 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%14 BIP · 0 HR

12.5%4 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 72 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 31 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 44

Expected xSLG on his locations: .542

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 22% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 8

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .590

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.048

Cutter (FC): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

4.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%1 BIP · 0 HR

9.5%5 BIP · 0 HR

14.9%4 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

2.7%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 74 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 21 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 27

Expected xSLG on his locations: .769

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 8.3

Overlap coverage: 35% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 6

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .579

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.190

THIN: batter 21 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP LEAKY

4.9%10 BIP · 0 HR

14.8%16 BIP · 2 HR

11.5%6 BIP · 1 HR

4.9%8 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%20 BIP · 1 HR

3.3%10 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%3 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%12 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%5 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 90 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 104

Expected xSLG on his locations: .730

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.6

Overlap coverage: 49% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 2

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .547

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.183

Sinker (SI): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

8.9%2 BIP · 1 HR

16.1%5 BIP · 0 HR

10.7%2 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%4 BIP · 0 HR

8.9%6 BIP · 0 HR

8.9%1 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%7 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%2 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 56 pitches to LHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 66%

Batter sample: 30 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 32

Expected xSLG on his locations: .613

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.8

Overlap coverage: 32% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .566

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.047

THIN: pitcher location 56 pitches (< 60)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Tampa Bay Rays — behind Drew Rasmussen

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 1.13 (948 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 7.3

Pen K % to LHB: 23.2

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (8 of 11 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Bryan Baker

Available tonight: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly, Brody Hopkins, Steven Matz

Not available / flagged: none

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly, Steven Matz

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 3 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.200	1 for 5	0	5	3	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.200	2 for 10	0	10	5

Arms listed: 11 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Bryan Baker (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 44 saves in 68 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 68 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.96 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 9, 9, 9

Games: 68 (starts 0)

Saves: 44

Holds: 2

Games finished: 55

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 134 BF (52.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.57

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.5 (92 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.3

K% vs LHB: 23.1

AVG against vs LHB: .139 (122 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .246

xSLG against vs LHB: .283

Last 30 days vs LHB: 16 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .143 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 49.7%, Four-Seam 49.7%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (61 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 52% · Changeup 46%

vs Baker's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .269

Pooled on those pitches: .284

At-bats: 169 (48 hits)

HR: 8

Weighted xBA: .279

Pooled SLG: .479

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (52%)	.308	37 for 120	.272	.575	8	9%	520
Changeup (46%)	.224	11 for 49	.288	.245	0	17%	243

History: vs Baker (career): 1-1 (2 PA), 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K · 1.000 BA, 2.000 SLG, 1.000 ISO · 2026: 11 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.3%

K per PA: 15.4%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +9

Batter percentile: 80

Pitcher percentile: 5

Bryan Baker (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.9%13 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%26 BIP · 2 HR

0.0%12 BIP · 1 HR

6.6%28 BIP · 0 HR

8.2%45 BIP · 1 HR

6.6%26 BIP · 3 HR

8.2%27 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%49 BIP · 2 HR

1.6%29 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 255 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 307

Expected xSLG on his locations: .520

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.4

Overlap coverage: 44% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .569

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.049

Tyler Wells (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 15 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.26 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 9, 9, 8, 7

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 15

Games finished: 19

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-12 (30 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 152 BF (54.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.01

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.9 (101 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 22.8

K% vs LHB: 25.7

AVG against vs LHB: .175 (137 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .292

xSLG against vs LHB: .321

Last 30 days vs LHB: 1 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 35.7%, Cutter 30.3%, Four-Seam 26.0%, Curve 7.3%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 5 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Changeup 36% · Cutter 30% · Four-Seam 26% · Curve 7%

vs Wells's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .253

Pooled on those pitches: .280

At-bats: 225 (63 hits)

HR: 11

Weighted xBA: .291

Pooled SLG: .493

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Changeup (36%)	.224	11 for 49	.288	.245	0	17%	243
Cutter (30%)	.219	7 for 32	.302	.406	1	12%	148
Four-Seam (26%)	.308	37 for 120	.272	.575	8	9%	520
Curve (7%)	.333	8 for 24	.338	.708	2	9%	97

History: vs Wells: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.2%

K per PA: 18.1%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −4

Batter percentile: 3

Pitcher percentile: 24

Tyler Wells (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.5%13 BIP · 1 HR

9.6%26 BIP · 2 HR

3.3%12 BIP · 1 HR

10.5%28 BIP · 0 HR

11.0%45 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%26 BIP · 3 HR

6.4%27 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%49 BIP · 2 HR

2.1%29 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 581 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 5 pitches, below 60) (54 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 58%

Batter sample: 255 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 307

Expected xSLG on his locations: .545

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.7

Overlap coverage: 58% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.025

Cam Booser (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 14 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 44 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.95 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 6, 5, 8

Games: 44 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 14

Games finished: 6

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 0.3, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 74 BF (46.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.03

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.5 (44 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 36.4

K% vs LHB: 32.4

AVG against vs LHB: .118 (68 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .221

xSLG against vs LHB: .309

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 43.8%, Cutter 34.4%, Sweeper 21.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 50 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 44% · Cutter 34% · Sweeper 22%

vs Booser's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .309

Pooled on those pitches: .358

At-bats: 67 (24 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .252

Pooled SLG: .567

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 66%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (44%)	.426	20 for 47	.273	.723	2	19%	178
Cutter (34%)	.250	2 for 8	.246	.250	0	19%	48	THIN
Sweeper (22%)	.167	2 for 12	.221	.167	0	22%	93

History: vs Booser: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.2%

K per PA: 20.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −3

Batter percentile: 4

Pitcher percentile: 27

Cam Booser (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.3%3 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%11 BIP · 1 HR

7.2%9 BIP · 0 HR

9.8%30 BIP · 1 HR

9.8%11 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%15 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%27 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%7 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 276 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 50 pitches, below 60) (40 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 119 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 140

Expected xSLG on his locations: .432

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 1.5

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .513

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.081

Cole Sulser (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 12 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 2 starts)

Batters per start: 8 (~0.9 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 51 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.1 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 8, 8, 9

Games: 51 (starts 2)

Saves: 3

Holds: 12

Games finished: 13

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 140 BF (59.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.27

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.4 (95 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 41.1

K% vs LHB: 23.6

AVG against vs LHB: .181 (127 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .260

xSLG against vs LHB: .356

Last 30 days vs LHB: 18 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 46.0%, Changeup 41.1%, Cutter 12.7%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (85 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 41% · Changeup 36% · Cutter 22%

vs Sulser's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .258

Pooled on those pitches: .274

At-bats: 201 (55 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .284

Pooled SLG: .468

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (41%)	.308	37 for 120	.272	.575	8	9%	520
Changeup (36%)	.224	11 for 49	.288	.245	0	17%	243
Cutter (22%)	.219	7 for 32	.302	.406	1	12%	148

History: vs Sulser (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 1 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.3%

K per PA: 15.6%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +7

Batter percentile: 54

Pitcher percentile: 6

Cole Sulser (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.7%13 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%26 BIP · 2 HR

1.2%12 BIP · 1 HR

9.4%28 BIP · 0 HR

5.9%45 BIP · 1 HR

4.7%26 BIP · 3 HR

3.5%27 BIP · 0 HR

3.5%49 BIP · 2 HR

1.2%29 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 85 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (7 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 255 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 307

Expected xSLG on his locations: .548

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.7

Overlap coverage: 40% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.022

Ian Seymour (LHP) — SETUP — usually 2.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 16 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 2.0 IP per outing (median of 49 games)

Usual innings (mean): 2.8 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 7 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 3, 3, 6, 4

Games: 49 (starts 16)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 7

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 0.3, 3.0, 1.3

Sample vs LHB: 199 BF (35.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 12

HR/9 vs LHB: 2.31

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.5 (133 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 38.3

K% vs LHB: 28.1

AVG against vs LHB: .239 (188 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .505

xSLG against vs LHB: .402

Last 30 days vs LHB: 29 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.64 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .138 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 29.7%, Sweeper 21.9%, Changeup 21.1%, Four-Seam 19.7%, Slider 7.4%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 7.5, Sweeper 32.6, Changeup 38.8, Four-Seam 29.8, Slider 13.3

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (104 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 40% · Four-Seam 26% · Sweeper 16% · Changeup 15%

vs Seymour's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .280

Pooled on those pitches: .317

At-bats: 126 (40 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .225

Pooled SLG: .468

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sinker (40%)	.304	17 for 56	.248	.393	0	4%	197
Four-Seam (26%)	.426	20 for 47	.273	.723	2	19%	178
Sweeper (16%)	.167	2 for 12	.221	.167	0	22%	93
Changeup (15%)	.091	1 for 11	.088	.091	0	23%	35

History: vs Seymour (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 3 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Ian Seymour (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

4.8%3 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%6 BIP · 0 HR

8.7%11 BIP · 1 HR

7.7%9 BIP · 0 HR

9.6%30 BIP · 1 HR

5.8%11 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%15 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%27 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%7 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 104 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (6 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 119 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 140

Expected xSLG on his locations: .448

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.0

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .513

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.065

Kevin Kelly (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 34 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 72 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.03 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 9, 7, 7, 8

Games: 72 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 34

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 123 BF (43.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.24

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.2 (98 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 57.1

K% vs LHB: 13.8

AVG against vs LHB: .243 (115 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .391

xSLG against vs LHB: .490

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 50.6%, Changeup 35.3%, Four-Seam 10.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 51% · Changeup 35% · Four-Seam 11%

vs Kelly's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .316

Pooled on those pitches: .300

At-bats: 203 (61 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .336

Pooled SLG: .488

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sinker (51%)	.382	13 for 34	.384	.529	1	4%	158
Changeup (35%)	.224	11 for 49	.288	.245	0	17%	243
Four-Seam (11%)	.308	37 for 120	.272	.575	8	9%	520

History: vs Kelly: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Kevin Kelly (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

2.8%13 BIP · 1 HR

1.4%26 BIP · 2 HR

1.2%12 BIP · 1 HR

7.3%28 BIP · 0 HR

8.0%45 BIP · 1 HR

3.8%26 BIP · 3 HR

9.7%27 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%49 BIP · 2 HR

7.8%29 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 423 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches, below 60) (66 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 255 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 307

Expected xSLG on his locations: .532

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.8

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .575

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.043

Steven Matz (LHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.5 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 11 starts among 36 appearances

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 11 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 77 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.5 IP per outing (median of 36 games)

Usual innings (mean): 2.23 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 6 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 36 (starts 11)

Saves: 1

Holds: 1

Games finished: 7

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 119 BF (34.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 3

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.96

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.3 (94 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 28.7

K% vs LHB: 15.1

AVG against vs LHB: .200 (110 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .327

xSLG against vs LHB: .342

Last 30 days vs LHB: 10 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .111 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 58.9%, Changeup 16.9%, Curve 12.6%, Slider 11.6%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 10.3, Changeup 32.7, Curve 9.1, Slider 21.9

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 27 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 59% · Changeup 17% · Curve 13% · Slider 12%

vs Matz's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .261

Pooled on those pitches: .305

At-bats: 105 (32 hits)

HR: 1

Weighted xBA: .211

Pooled SLG: .410

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sinker (59%)	.304	17 for 56	.248	.393	0	4%	197
Changeup (17%)	.091	1 for 11	.088	.091	0	23%	35
Curve (13%)	.100	1 for 10	.107	.100	0	46%	42
Slider (12%)	.464	13 for 28	.315	.679	1	27%	144

History: vs Matz (career): 1-3, 0 BB, 0 K · .333 BA, .333 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 9 pitches, 3 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Steven Matz (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.1%3 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%6 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%11 BIP · 1 HR

7.8%9 BIP · 0 HR

10.7%30 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%11 BIP · 0 HR

10.2%15 BIP · 0 HR

9.0%27 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%7 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 421 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 27 pitches, below 60) (35 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 61%

Batter sample: 119 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 140

Expected xSLG on his locations: .434

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 1.3

Overlap coverage: 61% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .512

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.078

Brody Hopkins (RHP) — MIDDLE RELIEF — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: MIDDLE RELIEF

Role basis: 6 games, median 1.0 IP per outing, median entry 6.5 inning, 0 holds, 0 saves

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 6 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.89 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.5)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 7, 6, 7, 5

Games: 6 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 0

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 7 BF (29.2% of his batters) THIN

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00 THIN

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (2 BBE) THIN

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 0.0 THIN

K% vs LHB: 28.6

AVG against vs LHB: .000 (4 AB) THIN

SLG against vs LHB: .000 THIN

xSLG against vs LHB: .142 THIN

Last 30 days vs LHB: 7 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 52.9%, Curve 47.1%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 34 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 53% · Curve 47%

vs Hopkins's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .320

Pooled on those pitches: .312

At-bats: 144 (45 hits)

HR: 10

Weighted xBA: .303

Pooled SLG: .597

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (53%)	.308	37 for 120	.272	.575	8	9%	520
Curve (47%)	.333	8 for 24	.338	.708	2	9%	97

History: vs Hopkins: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Brody Hopkins (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

0.0%13 BIP · 1 HR

2.9%26 BIP · 2 HR

2.9%12 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%28 BIP · 0 HR

8.8%45 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%26 BIP · 3 HR

14.7%27 BIP · 0 HR

11.8%49 BIP · 2 HR

5.9%29 BIP · 4 HR

Pitcher sample: 34 pitches to LHB — THIN

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 34 pitches, below 60) (4 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 255 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 307

Expected xSLG on his locations: .504

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.7

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .559

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.055

THIN: pitcher location 34 pitches (< 60)

Griffin Jax (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 35 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 18 (~2.0 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 67 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 35 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 3

Games finished: 1

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 284 BF (60.6% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 10

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.35

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.8 (181 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.8

K% vs LHB: 28.2

AVG against vs LHB: .240 (258 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .391

xSLG against vs LHB: .402

Last 30 days vs LHB: 30 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .138

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 29.9%, Four-Seam 21.0%, Sweeper 16.6%, Sinker 15.6%, Curve 12.5%, Cutter 4.4%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 39.3, Four-Seam 26.5, Sweeper 28.2, Sinker 9.6, Curve 42.0, Cutter 16.7

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Freddy Peralta (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 33 starts in 33 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 33 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 93 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 33)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-05 (7 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.0, 5.7, 5.3, 4.7

Sample vs LHB: 477 BF (63.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 18

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.44

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.9 (332 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 38.0

K% vs LHB: 21.6

AVG against vs LHB: .252 (432 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .440

xSLG against vs LHB: .382

Last 30 days vs LHB: 51 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.75 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .214

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 51.8%, Changeup 26.9%, Curve 16.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 19.7, Changeup 27.2, Curve 32.9

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Nick Martinez (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.3, 5.0, 6.0, 2.7, 3.7

Sample vs LHB: 430 BF (58.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 13

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.16

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.0 (344 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.5

K% vs LHB: 15.8

AVG against vs LHB: .235 (409 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .389

xSLG against vs LHB: .401

Last 30 days vs LHB: 40 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.96 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .297

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 29.1%, Sinker 26.0%, Cutter 22.2%, Four-Seam 13.9%, Slider 4.4%, Curve 4.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 25.7, Sinker 6.4, Cutter 12.7, Four-Seam 13.7, Slider 24.2, Curve 18.8

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 0/5 (0%) · L10 1/10 (10%) · L20 3/20 (15%)

DET
9/4DET
9/4BAL
9/9MIN
9/11MIN
9/12MIN
9/13CWS
9/14ATH
9/18ATH
9/19ATH
9/20BOS
9/22BOS
9/23BOS
9/24KC
9/25KC
9/26CWS
10/3CWS
10/5CWS
10/7CWS
10/8CWS
10/10

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CH/FC/FF/SI (207 BIP)

x0.53112 BIP · 1 HR

x0.69023 BIP · 2 HR

x0.83411 BIP · 1 HR

x0.36720 BIP · 0 HR

x0.55233 BIP · 1 HR

x0.81316 BIP · 2 HR

x0.36819 BIP · 0 HR

x0.64525 BIP · 1 HR

x0.45713 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FC/FF/SI land vs LHB (1626 pitches, 50% in zone)

4.9%

6.8%

6.0%

3.3%

8.4%

7.3%

2.4%

4.4%

6.1%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CH/FC/FF/SI: 18 BIP, 1 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/10	Burke	FF	75.3	41	249	field out
10/10	Burke	FC	109.2	13	322	field out
10/8	Hicks	FF	91.6	32	319	field out
10/5	Burke	FF	84.9	19	257	single
10/5	Burke	FF	99.1	-3	27	field out
10/3	Taylor	FF	101.2	-26	6	field out
9/26	Wacha	FC	91.7	24	340	field out
9/26	Wacha	FF	107.9	20	400	home run
9/26	Wacha	FF	64.8	76	66	field out
9/23	Whitlock	CH	98.5	-10	10	grounded into double play
9/23	Gray	SI	74.0	43	221	field out
9/23	Gray	FF	97.4	38	305	field out

BATTER-FIRSTNathaniel Lowe (LHB, slot 5) vs Drew Rasmussen · model 12.1% LEAKY: Four-Seam

Model & price

Model HR %: 12.1%

Best HR price: +13000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +6875)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 10.0% (fair +900)

Our model HR %: 12.1%

Difference: Ballpark Pal −2.1 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.10

Projected PA (sim): 4.1

Ballpark Pal's starter: Drew Rasmussen (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Drew Rasmussen: 1.9% neutral

HR per PA vs Drew Rasmussen, park-adjusted: 2.0%

vs his typical HR rate: −27%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: −24%

Strikeout per PA vs Drew Rasmussen: 26.6%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +19%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.05

Stadium only: ×1.02

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.03

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	59.5%	-147
Hits	1.5	19.8%	+405
Total bases	0.5	59.5%	-147
Total bases	1.5	33.3%	+200
Total bases	2.5	18.4%	+443

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .822 OPS · 17 HR · 380 PA

Batter is: AWAY · .703 OPS · 5 HR · 215 PA

Night: .677 OPS · 10 HR · 244 PA

Day: .872 OPS · 7 HR · 185 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.500	2 for 4	6	3	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.333	3 for 9	12	5	THIN
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.222	2 for 9	13	3	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.200	3 for 15	20	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 34 PA · .200 / .324 / .240 · ISO .040 · wOBA .302

Hits: 4 1B · 1 2B · 0 3B · 0 HR · 6 BB · 3 K

Contact: GB 38% · LD 38% · FB 17%

Quality: 0 barrels (0%) · hard-hit 42% · 90.2 mph on 24 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 22 PA · .250 / .364 / .312 · ISO .062 · wOBA .307

Hits: 3 1B · 1 2B · 0 3B · 0 HR · 4 BB · 3 K

Contact: GB 27% · LD 40% · FB 20%

Quality: 0 barrels (0%) · hard-hit 47% · 92.7 mph on 15 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Rasmussen (career): 1-3, 0 BB, 1 K · .333 BA, .333 SLG, .000 ISO

Escape: PARTIAL — escape: Changeup 27%

Wind: roof closed — no wind effect

vs Rasmussen's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-05 to 10-03)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 270

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Cutter 27% · Changeup 27% · Four-Seam 23% LEAKY · Sinker 21%

vs Rasmussen's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .308

Pooled on those pitches: .278

At-bats: 273 (76 hits)

HR: 11

Weighted xBA: .293

Pooled SLG: .462

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Cutter (27%)	.393	11 for 28	.308	.857	3	14%	120
Changeup (27%)	.262	11 for 42	.246	.500	2	18%	165
Four-Seam (23%) LEAKY	.257	44 for 171	.286	.374	4	16%	791
Sinker (21%)	.312	10 for 32	.345	.531	2	17%	146

vs Rasmussen's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .236

Pooled on those pitches: .320

At-bats: 25 (8 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .247

Pooled SLG: .320

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 23%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (27%)	.000	0 for 5	.117	.000	44%	12	THIN
Changeup (27%)	.500	2 for 4	.233	.500	0%	11	THIN
Four-Seam (23%) LEAKY	.429	6 for 14	.379	.429	13%	63
Sinker (21%)	.000	0 for 2	.291	.000	43%	10	THIN

Cutter27% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · EXCEPTIONAL

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.739 · 21% barrels · 3 HR on 24 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .393 (28 AB) · 54% in the air · 87.1 mph · 46% hard-hit · 172 ft avg · 3 HR on 24 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .000 (2 AB) · 0% in the air · 92.2 mph · 50% hard-hit · 40 ft avg · 0 HR on 2 BBE

Last-10 check: NO — 1 of 5: hard

Zone overlap vs Rasmussen

Drew Rasmussen (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.6%16 BIP · 1 HR

8.2%30 BIP · 1 HR

6.3%13 BIP · 1 HR

3.7%21 BIP · 3 HR

8.2%38 BIP · 5 HR

8.5%33 BIP · 2 HR

1.1%13 BIP · 0 HR

5.2%40 BIP · 2 HR

3.7%19 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 270 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 50%

Batter sample: 223 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 265

Expected xSLG on his locations: .675

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.3

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .572

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.103

Changeup (CH): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

5.6%3 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%4 BIP · 0 HR

6.9%3 BIP · 1 HR

5.6%2 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%5 BIP · 0 HR

12.5%12 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%0 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 72 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 30 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 38

Expected xSLG on his locations: .729

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.7

Overlap coverage: 33% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 8

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .586

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.143

Cutter (FC): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

4.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%3 BIP · 1 HR

1.4%1 BIP · 0 HR

9.5%4 BIP · 0 HR

14.9%4 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

2.7%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%3 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 74 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 19 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 24

Expected xSLG on his locations: .669

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.8

Overlap coverage: 40% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: 6

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .578

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.091

THIN: batter 19 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP LEAKY

4.9%10 BIP · 0 HR

14.8%22 BIP · 0 HR

11.5%8 BIP · 0 HR

4.9%10 BIP · 2 HR

6.6%19 BIP · 0 HR

3.3%21 BIP · 2 HR

1.6%1 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%13 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%9 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 113 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 129

Expected xSLG on his locations: .534

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.6

Overlap coverage: 48% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .547

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.013

Sinker (SI): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

8.9%1 BIP · 0 HR

16.1%2 BIP · 1 HR

10.7%0 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%3 BIP · 0 HR

8.9%3 BIP · 1 HR

8.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%1 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 56 pitches to LHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 66%

Batter sample: 19 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 23

Expected xSLG on his locations: 1.012

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 19.9

Overlap coverage: 16% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .592

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.420

THIN: pitcher location 56 pitches (< 60); batter 19 BIP in zone (< 25)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Tampa Bay Rays — behind Drew Rasmussen

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 1.13 (948 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 7.3

Pen K % to LHB: 23.2

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (8 of 11 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Bryan Baker

Available tonight: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly, Brody Hopkins, Steven Matz

Not available / flagged: none

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly, Steven Matz

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 3 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.000	0 for 5	0	7	3	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.000	0 for 6	0	8	5	THIN

Arms listed: 11 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Bryan Baker (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 44 saves in 68 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 68 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.96 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 9, 9, 9

Games: 68 (starts 0)

Saves: 44

Holds: 2

Games finished: 55

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 134 BF (52.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.57

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.5 (92 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.3

K% vs LHB: 23.1

AVG against vs LHB: .139 (122 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .246

xSLG against vs LHB: .283

Last 30 days vs LHB: 16 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .143 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 49.7%, Four-Seam 49.7%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (61 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 52% · Changeup 46%

vs Baker's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .259

Pooled on those pitches: .258

At-bats: 213 (55 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .267

Pooled SLG: .399

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (52%)	.257	44 for 171	.286	.374	4	16%	791
Changeup (46%)	.262	11 for 42	.246	.500	2	18%	165

History: vs Baker (career): 2-4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K · .500 BA, 1.250 SLG, .750 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.8%

K per PA: 24.7%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +5

Batter percentile: 36

Pitcher percentile: 23

Bryan Baker (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.9%16 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%30 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%13 BIP · 1 HR

6.6%21 BIP · 3 HR

8.2%38 BIP · 5 HR

6.6%33 BIP · 2 HR

8.2%13 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%40 BIP · 2 HR

1.6%19 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 223 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 265

Expected xSLG on his locations: .673

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.2

Overlap coverage: 44% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .569

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.104

Tyler Wells (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 15 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.26 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 9, 9, 8, 7

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 15

Games finished: 19

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-12 (30 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 152 BF (54.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.01

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.9 (101 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 22.8

K% vs LHB: 25.7

AVG against vs LHB: .175 (137 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .292

xSLG against vs LHB: .321

Last 30 days vs LHB: 1 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 35.7%, Cutter 30.3%, Four-Seam 26.0%, Curve 7.3%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 5 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Changeup 36% · Cutter 30% · Four-Seam 26% · Curve 7%

vs Wells's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .291

Pooled on those pitches: .262

At-bats: 263 (69 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .271

Pooled SLG: .430

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Changeup (36%)	.262	11 for 42	.246	.500	2	18%	165
Cutter (30%)	.393	11 for 28	.308	.857	3	14%	120
Four-Seam (26%)	.257	44 for 171	.286	.374	4	16%	791
Curve (7%)	.136	3 for 22	.184	.182	0	31%	126

History: vs Wells (career): 0-4, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 3 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.5%

K per PA: 27.0%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −4

Batter percentile: 7

Pitcher percentile: 24

Tyler Wells (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.5%16 BIP · 1 HR

9.6%30 BIP · 1 HR

3.3%13 BIP · 1 HR

10.5%21 BIP · 3 HR

11.0%38 BIP · 5 HR

4.8%33 BIP · 2 HR

6.4%13 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%40 BIP · 2 HR

2.1%19 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 581 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 5 pitches, below 60) (54 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 58%

Batter sample: 223 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 265

Expected xSLG on his locations: .666

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.8

Overlap coverage: 58% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.096

Cam Booser (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 14 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 44 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.95 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 6, 5, 8

Games: 44 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 14

Games finished: 6

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 0.3, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 74 BF (46.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.03

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.5 (44 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 36.4

K% vs LHB: 32.4

AVG against vs LHB: .118 (68 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .221

xSLG against vs LHB: .309

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 43.8%, Cutter 34.4%, Sweeper 21.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 50 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 44% · Cutter 34% · Sweeper 22%

vs Booser's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .164

Pooled on those pitches: .176

At-bats: 17 (3 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .176

Pooled SLG: .176

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 0%

Sample: THIN (under 20 AB)

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (44%)	.375	3 for 8	.322	.375	27%	59	THIN
Cutter (34%)	.000	0 for 4	.070	.000	67%	12	THIN
Sweeper (22%)	.000	0 for 5	.052	.000	31%	36	THIN

Wider window vs LHP: none — cache holds 2026 season only, so 17 AB is all there is from that hand

History: vs Booser (career): 0-1 (2 PA), 1 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.9%

K per PA: 24.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −1

Batter percentile: 13

Pitcher percentile: 15

Cam Booser (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.3%2 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%0 BIP · 0 HR

7.2%2 BIP · 0 HR

9.8%6 BIP · 0 HR

9.8%4 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%5 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%8 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 276 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 50 pitches, below 60) (40 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 34 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 44

Expected xSLG on his locations: .341

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 36% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .521

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.180

Cole Sulser (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 12 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 2 starts)

Batters per start: 8 (~0.9 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 51 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.1 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 8, 8, 9

Games: 51 (starts 2)

Saves: 3

Holds: 12

Games finished: 13

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 140 BF (59.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.27

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.4 (95 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 41.1

K% vs LHB: 23.6

AVG against vs LHB: .181 (127 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .260

xSLG against vs LHB: .356

Last 30 days vs LHB: 18 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 46.0%, Changeup 41.1%, Cutter 12.7%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (85 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 41% · Changeup 36% · Cutter 22%

vs Sulser's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .289

Pooled on those pitches: .274

At-bats: 241 (66 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .276

Pooled SLG: .452

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (41%)	.257	44 for 171	.286	.374	4	16%	791
Changeup (36%)	.262	11 for 42	.246	.500	2	18%	165
Cutter (22%)	.393	11 for 28	.308	.857	3	14%	120

History: vs Sulser (career): 1-4, 0 BB, 1 K · .250 BA, .250 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.1%

K per PA: 22.6%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +6

Batter percentile: 40

Pitcher percentile: 11

Cole Sulser (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.7%16 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%30 BIP · 1 HR

1.2%13 BIP · 1 HR

9.4%21 BIP · 3 HR

5.9%38 BIP · 5 HR

4.7%33 BIP · 2 HR

3.5%13 BIP · 0 HR

3.5%40 BIP · 2 HR

1.2%19 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 85 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (7 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 223 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 265

Expected xSLG on his locations: .672

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 8.1

Overlap coverage: 40% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.102

Ian Seymour (LHP) — SETUP — usually 2.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 16 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 2.0 IP per outing (median of 49 games)

Usual innings (mean): 2.8 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 7 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 3, 3, 6, 4

Games: 49 (starts 16)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 7

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 0.3, 3.0, 1.3

Sample vs LHB: 199 BF (35.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 12

HR/9 vs LHB: 2.31

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.5 (133 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 38.3

K% vs LHB: 28.1

AVG against vs LHB: .239 (188 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .505

xSLG against vs LHB: .402

Last 30 days vs LHB: 29 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.64 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .138 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 29.7%, Sweeper 21.9%, Changeup 21.1%, Four-Seam 19.7%, Slider 7.4%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 7.5, Sweeper 32.6, Changeup 38.8, Four-Seam 29.8, Slider 13.3

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (104 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 40% · Four-Seam 26% · Sweeper 16% · Changeup 15%

vs Seymour's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .130

Pooled on those pitches: .119

At-bats: 42 (5 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .234

Pooled SLG: .119

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 41%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (40%)	.074	2 for 27	.329	.074	7%	89
Four-Seam (26%)	.375	3 for 8	.322	.375	27%	59	THIN
Sweeper (16%)	.000	0 for 5	.052	.000	31%	36	THIN
Changeup (15%)	.000	0 for 2	.028	.000	50%	5	THIN

History: vs Seymour: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Ian Seymour (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

4.8%2 BIP · 0 HR

8.7%0 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%2 BIP · 0 HR

9.6%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.8%4 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%5 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%5 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%8 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 104 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (6 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 34 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 44

Expected xSLG on his locations: .347

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 30% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .527

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.180

Kevin Kelly (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 34 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 72 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.03 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 9, 7, 7, 8

Games: 72 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 34

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 123 BF (43.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.24

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.2 (98 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 57.1

K% vs LHB: 13.8

AVG against vs LHB: .243 (115 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .391

xSLG against vs LHB: .490

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 50.6%, Changeup 35.3%, Four-Seam 10.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 51% · Changeup 35% · Four-Seam 11%

vs Kelly's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .288

Pooled on those pitches: .265

At-bats: 245 (65 hits)

HR: 8

Weighted xBA: .302

Pooled SLG: .416

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sinker (51%)	.312	10 for 32	.345	.531	2	17%	146
Changeup (35%)	.262	11 for 42	.246	.500	2	18%	165
Four-Seam (11%)	.257	44 for 171	.286	.374	4	16%	791

History: vs Kelly (career): 1-3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K · .333 BA, .667 SLG, .333 ISO · 2026: 4 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Kevin Kelly (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

2.8%16 BIP · 1 HR

1.4%30 BIP · 1 HR

1.2%13 BIP · 1 HR

7.3%21 BIP · 3 HR

8.0%38 BIP · 5 HR

3.8%33 BIP · 2 HR

9.7%13 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%40 BIP · 2 HR

7.8%19 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 423 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches, below 60) (66 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 223 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 265

Expected xSLG on his locations: .664

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.8

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .575

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.089

Steven Matz (LHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.5 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 11 starts among 36 appearances

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 11 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 77 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.5 IP per outing (median of 36 games)

Usual innings (mean): 2.23 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 6 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 36 (starts 11)

Saves: 1

Holds: 1

Games finished: 7

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 119 BF (34.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 3

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.96

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.3 (94 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 28.7

K% vs LHB: 15.1

AVG against vs LHB: .200 (110 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .327

xSLG against vs LHB: .342

Last 30 days vs LHB: 10 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .111 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 58.9%, Changeup 16.9%, Curve 12.6%, Slider 11.6%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 10.3, Changeup 32.7, Curve 9.1, Slider 21.9

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 27 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 59% · Changeup 17% · Curve 13% · Slider 12%

vs Matz's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .058

Pooled on those pitches: .077

At-bats: 39 (3 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .242

Pooled SLG: .103

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 59%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (59%)	.074	2 for 27	.329	.074	7%	89
Changeup (17%)	.000	0 for 2	.028	.000	50%	5	THIN
Curve (13%)	.000	0 for 2	.269	.000	0%	7	THIN
Slider (12%)	.125	1 for 8	.081	.250	50%	38	THIN

History: vs Matz (career): 1-8, 0 BB, 3 K · .125 BA, .125 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Steven Matz (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.1%2 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%2 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%0 BIP · 0 HR

7.8%2 BIP · 0 HR

10.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

6.9%4 BIP · 0 HR

10.2%5 BIP · 0 HR

9.0%5 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%8 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 421 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 27 pitches, below 60) (35 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 61%

Batter sample: 34 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 44

Expected xSLG on his locations: .335

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 40% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .518

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.183

Brody Hopkins (RHP) — MIDDLE RELIEF — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: MIDDLE RELIEF

Role basis: 6 games, median 1.0 IP per outing, median entry 6.5 inning, 0 holds, 0 saves

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 6 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.89 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.5)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 7, 6, 7, 5

Games: 6 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 0

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 7 BF (29.2% of his batters) THIN

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00 THIN

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (2 BBE) THIN

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 0.0 THIN

K% vs LHB: 28.6

AVG against vs LHB: .000 (4 AB) THIN

SLG against vs LHB: .000 THIN

xSLG against vs LHB: .142 THIN

Last 30 days vs LHB: 7 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 52.9%, Curve 47.1%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 34 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 53% · Curve 47%

vs Hopkins's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .200

Pooled on those pitches: .244

At-bats: 193 (47 hits)

HR: 4

Weighted xBA: .238

Pooled SLG: .352

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (53%)	.257	44 for 171	.286	.374	4	16%	791
Curve (47%)	.136	3 for 22	.184	.182	0	31%	126

History: vs Hopkins: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Brody Hopkins (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

0.0%16 BIP · 1 HR

2.9%30 BIP · 1 HR

2.9%13 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%21 BIP · 3 HR

8.8%38 BIP · 5 HR

0.0%33 BIP · 2 HR

14.7%13 BIP · 0 HR

11.8%40 BIP · 2 HR

5.9%19 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 34 pitches to LHB — THIN

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 34 pitches, below 60) (4 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 223 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 265

Expected xSLG on his locations: .622

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.1

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .559

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.063

THIN: pitcher location 34 pitches (< 60)

Griffin Jax (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 35 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 18 (~2.0 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 67 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 35 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 3

Games finished: 1

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 284 BF (60.6% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 10

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.35

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.8 (181 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.8

K% vs LHB: 28.2

AVG against vs LHB: .240 (258 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .391

xSLG against vs LHB: .402

Last 30 days vs LHB: 30 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .138

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 29.9%, Four-Seam 21.0%, Sweeper 16.6%, Sinker 15.6%, Curve 12.5%, Cutter 4.4%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 39.3, Four-Seam 26.5, Sweeper 28.2, Sinker 9.6, Curve 42.0, Cutter 16.7

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Freddy Peralta (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 33 starts in 33 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 33 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 93 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 33)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-05 (7 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.0, 5.7, 5.3, 4.7

Sample vs LHB: 477 BF (63.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 18

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.44

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.9 (332 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 38.0

K% vs LHB: 21.6

AVG against vs LHB: .252 (432 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .440

xSLG against vs LHB: .382

Last 30 days vs LHB: 51 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.75 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .214

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 51.8%, Changeup 26.9%, Curve 16.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 19.7, Changeup 27.2, Curve 32.9

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Nick Martinez (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.3, 5.0, 6.0, 2.7, 3.7

Sample vs LHB: 430 BF (58.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 13

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.16

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.0 (344 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.5

K% vs LHB: 15.8

AVG against vs LHB: .235 (409 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .389

xSLG against vs LHB: .401

Last 30 days vs LHB: 40 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.96 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .297

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 29.1%, Sinker 26.0%, Cutter 22.2%, Four-Seam 13.9%, Slider 4.4%, Curve 4.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 25.7, Sinker 6.4, Cutter 12.7, Four-Seam 13.7, Slider 24.2, Curve 18.8

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 0/5 (0%) · L10 0/10 (0%) · L20 2/20 (10%)

BAL
9/7BAL
9/8BAL
9/9MIN
9/11MIN
9/12MIN
9/13CWS
9/14CWS
9/15ATH
9/18ATH
9/20BOS
9/22BOS
9/23KC
9/25KC
9/26KC
9/27CWS
10/3CWS
10/5CWS
10/7CWS
10/8CWS
10/10

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CH/FC/FF/SI (214 BIP)

x0.80515 BIP · 1 HR

x0.45328 BIP · 1 HR

x0.71911 BIP · 1 HR

x0.66218 BIP · 2 HR

x0.74429 BIP · 2 HR

x0.67629 BIP · 2 HR

x0.3047 BIP · 0 HR

x0.77831 BIP · 0 HR

x0.77213 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FC/FF/SI land vs LHB (1626 pitches, 50% in zone)

4.9%

6.8%

6.0%

3.3%

8.4%

7.3%

2.4%

4.4%

6.1%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CH/FC/FF/SI: 25 BIP, 0 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/10	Burke	FF	85.7	77	43	field out
10/10	Burke	FF	71.0	0	37	field out
10/8	Davis	FF	103.4	14	256	single
10/8	Fedde	FF	71.2	21	205	single
10/5	Burke	FC	98.8	-19	5	field out
9/27	Pearson	FF	93.1	34	340	field out
9/26	Bivens	FF	92.1	-12	16	single
9/26	Cuas	SI	104.5	5	118	field out
9/26	Wacha	CH	90.5	45	284	sac fly
9/26	Wacha	CH	106.5	17	336	sac fly
9/23	Gray	FC	85.5	75	74	field out
9/20	Perkins	CH	106.2	-9	15	field out

TARGETJosé Ramírez (LHB, slot 2) vs Drew Rasmussen · model 11.4% LEAKY: Four-Seam

Model & price

Model HR %: 11.4%

Best HR price: +13000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +6900)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 9.5% (fair +953)

Our model HR %: 11.4%

Difference: Ballpark Pal −1.9 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.10

Projected PA (sim): 4.5

Ballpark Pal's starter: Drew Rasmussen (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Drew Rasmussen: 1.7% neutral

HR per PA vs Drew Rasmussen, park-adjusted: 1.7%

vs his typical HR rate: −13%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: −13%

Strikeout per PA vs Drew Rasmussen: 15.3%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +6%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.00

Stadium only: ×1.03

Weather (multiplier deviation): −0.04

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	63.9%	-177
Hits	1.5	23.1%	+333
Total bases	0.5	63.9%	-177
Total bases	1.5	36.3%	+175
Total bases	2.5	20.2%	+395

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .625 OPS · 7 HR · 380 PA

Batter is: AWAY · .632 OPS · 6 HR · 278 PA

Night: .682 OPS · 8 HR · 349 PA

Day: .699 OPS · 4 HR · 195 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.500	4 for 8	2	9	3	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.364	4 for 11	2	12	5
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.417	5 for 12	2	14	3
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.278	5 for 18	2	22	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 46 PA · .231 / .326 / .462 · ISO .231 · wOBA .359

Hits: 5 1B · 1 2B · 1 3B · 2 HR · 6 BB · 6 K

Contact: GB 44% · LD 18% · FB 21%

Quality: 1 barrels (3%) · hard-hit 53% · 92.0 mph on 34 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 22 PA · .211 / .318 / .632 · ISO .421 · wOBA .395

Hits: 1 1B · 0 2B · 1 3B · 2 HR · 3 BB · 2 K

Contact: GB 29% · LD 24% · FB 35%

Quality: 1 barrels (6%) · hard-hit 35% · 88.8 mph on 17 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Rasmussen (career): 1-12, 0 BB, 3 K · .083 BA, .083 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 27 pitches, 4 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Escape: RISK — escape: Cutter 27%, Changeup 27%

Wind: roof closed — no wind effect

vs Rasmussen's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-05 to 10-03)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 270

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Cutter 27% · Changeup 27% · Four-Seam 23% LEAKY · Sinker 21%

vs Rasmussen's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .220

Pooled on those pitches: .226

At-bats: 221 (50 hits)

HR: 7

Weighted xBA: .263

Pooled SLG: .367

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Cutter (27%)	.217	10 for 46	.253	.413	2	14%	215
Changeup (27%)	.179	12 for 67	.215	.224	0	19%	277
Four-Seam (23%) LEAKY	.275	22 for 80	.284	.512	5	12%	423
Sinker (21%)	.214	6 for 28	.314	.214	0	10%	171

vs Rasmussen's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .151

Pooled on those pitches: .174

At-bats: 23 (4 hits)

HR: 1

Weighted xBA: .308

Pooled SLG: .348

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 23%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (27%)	.250	1 for 4	.341	.500	0	25%	19	THIN
Changeup (27%)	.125	1 for 8	.124	.125	0	10%	22	THIN
Four-Seam (23%) LEAKY	.200	2 for 10	.223	.500	1	26%	45
Sinker (21%)	.000	0 for 1	.594	.000	0	0%	13	THIN

Four-Seam LEAKY23% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · TARGETABLE · TARGET (FIT)

Pitch allows (last 5 starts): 0 hits · 29% hard-hit · 14% barrels

Pitch fly-ball profile: 50% barrels/FB · 50% pull/FB · 29% FB · 0 HR on 7 BBE

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.544 · 7% barrels · 5 HR on 71 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .275 (80 AB) · 63% in the air · 88.6 mph · 42% hard-hit · 210 ft avg · 5 HR on 71 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .167 (6 AB) · 80% in the air · 90.2 mph · 20% hard-hit · 275 ft avg · 1 HR on 5 BBE

Last-10 check: YES — 4 of 5: in the air, hard, far, homered

Zone overlap vs Rasmussen

Drew Rasmussen (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.6%9 BIP · 1 HR

8.2%25 BIP · 0 HR

6.3%13 BIP · 1 HR

3.7%32 BIP · 0 HR

8.2%41 BIP · 2 HR

8.5%19 BIP · 1 HR

1.1%29 BIP · 0 HR

5.2%39 BIP · 2 HR

3.7%11 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 270 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 50%

Batter sample: 218 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 296

Expected xSLG on his locations: .435

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.4

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .572

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.137

Changeup (CH): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

5.6%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%10 BIP · 0 HR

6.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%0 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%9 BIP · 0 HR

12.5%8 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%0 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 72 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 30 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 55

Expected xSLG on his locations: .512

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 21% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: 8

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .595

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.083

Cutter (FC): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

4.0%1 BIP · 1 HR

5.4%4 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%8 BIP · 1 HR

1.4%2 BIP · 0 HR

9.5%5 BIP · 0 HR

14.9%4 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

2.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 74 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 33 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 36

Expected xSLG on his locations: .575

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 9.7

Overlap coverage: 43% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .579

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.004

Four-Seam (FF): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP LEAKY

4.9%5 BIP · 0 HR

14.8%11 BIP · 0 HR

11.5%3 BIP · 0 HR

4.9%9 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%12 BIP · 1 HR

3.3%9 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%1 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%3 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%4 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 57 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 71

Expected xSLG on his locations: .371

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 1.9

Overlap coverage: 48% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .547

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.176

Sinker (SI): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

8.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

16.1%4 BIP · 0 HR

10.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%4 BIP · 0 HR

8.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

8.9%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%2 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%3 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%1 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 56 pitches to LHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 66%

Batter sample: 19 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 25

Expected xSLG on his locations: .638

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 23% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .569

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.069

THIN: pitcher location 56 pitches (< 60); batter 19 BIP in zone (< 25)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Tampa Bay Rays — behind Drew Rasmussen

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 1.13 (948 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 7.3

Pen K % to LHB: 23.2

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (8 of 11 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Bryan Baker

Available tonight: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly, Brody Hopkins, Steven Matz

Not available / flagged: none

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly, Steven Matz

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 3 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.250	1 for 4	0	5	3	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.143	1 for 7	0	10	5	THIN

Arms listed: 11 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Bryan Baker (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 44 saves in 68 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 68 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.96 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 9, 9, 9

Games: 68 (starts 0)

Saves: 44

Holds: 2

Games finished: 55

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 134 BF (52.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.57

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.5 (92 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.3

K% vs LHB: 23.1

AVG against vs LHB: .139 (122 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .246

xSLG against vs LHB: .283

Last 30 days vs LHB: 16 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .143 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 49.7%, Four-Seam 49.7%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (61 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 52% · Changeup 46%

vs Baker's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .230

Pooled on those pitches: .231

At-bats: 147 (34 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .252

Pooled SLG: .381

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (52%)	.275	22 for 80	.284	.512	5	12%	423
Changeup (46%)	.179	12 for 67	.215	.224	0	19%	277

History: vs Baker (career): 1-6, 0 BB, 1 K · .167 BA, .167 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 19 pitches, 3 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.3%

K per PA: 16.7%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +6

Batter percentile: 36

Pitcher percentile: 17

Bryan Baker (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.9%9 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%25 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%13 BIP · 1 HR

6.6%32 BIP · 0 HR

8.2%41 BIP · 2 HR

6.6%19 BIP · 1 HR

8.2%29 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%39 BIP · 2 HR

1.6%11 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 218 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 296

Expected xSLG on his locations: .455

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.7

Overlap coverage: 44% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .569

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.114

Tyler Wells (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 15 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.26 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 9, 9, 8, 7

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 15

Games finished: 19

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-12 (30 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 152 BF (54.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.01

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.9 (101 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 22.8

K% vs LHB: 25.7

AVG against vs LHB: .175 (137 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .292

xSLG against vs LHB: .321

Last 30 days vs LHB: 1 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 35.7%, Cutter 30.3%, Four-Seam 26.0%, Curve 7.3%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 5 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Changeup 36% · Cutter 30% · Four-Seam 26% · Curve 7%

vs Wells's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .230

Pooled on those pitches: .241

At-bats: 212 (51 hits)

HR: 8

Weighted xBA: .242

Pooled SLG: .420

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Changeup (36%)	.179	12 for 67	.215	.224	0	19%	277
Cutter (30%)	.217	10 for 46	.253	.413	2	14%	215
Four-Seam (26%)	.275	22 for 80	.284	.512	5	12%	423
Curve (7%)	.368	7 for 19	.184	.737	1	21%	95

History: vs Wells (career): 3-6 (7 PA), 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K · .500 BA, 1.333 SLG, .833 ISO · 2026: 3 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.3%

K per PA: 16.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −2

Batter percentile: 3

Pitcher percentile: 8

Tyler Wells (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.5%9 BIP · 1 HR

9.6%25 BIP · 0 HR

3.3%13 BIP · 1 HR

10.5%32 BIP · 0 HR

11.0%41 BIP · 2 HR

4.8%19 BIP · 1 HR

6.4%29 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%39 BIP · 2 HR

2.1%11 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 581 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 5 pitches, below 60) (54 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 58%

Batter sample: 218 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 296

Expected xSLG on his locations: .452

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.3

Overlap coverage: 58% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.118

Cam Booser (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 14 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 44 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.95 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 6, 5, 8

Games: 44 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 14

Games finished: 6

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 0.3, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 74 BF (46.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.03

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.5 (44 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 36.4

K% vs LHB: 32.4

AVG against vs LHB: .118 (68 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .221

xSLG against vs LHB: .309

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 43.8%, Cutter 34.4%, Sweeper 21.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 50 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 44% · Cutter 34% · Sweeper 22%

vs Booser's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .369

Pooled on those pitches: .310

At-bats: 71 (22 hits)

HR: 3

Weighted xBA: .306

Pooled SLG: .535

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 78%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (44%)	.245	12 for 49	.308	.490	3	8%	203
Cutter (34%)	.400	6 for 15	.316	.600	0	11%	61
Sweeper (22%)	.571	4 for 7	.287	.714	0	0%	29	THIN

History: vs Booser (career): 1-2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K · .500 BA, 2.000 SLG, 1.500 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.1%

K per PA: 16.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +3

Batter percentile: 14

Pitcher percentile: 4

Cam Booser (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.3%8 BIP · 1 HR

4.7%11 BIP · 1 HR

5.4%7 BIP · 0 HR

7.2%7 BIP · 1 HR

9.8%27 BIP · 1 HR

9.8%13 BIP · 1 HR

6.2%10 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%14 BIP · 1 HR

3.6%13 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 276 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 50 pitches, below 60) (40 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 110 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 142

Expected xSLG on his locations: .539

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.1

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .513

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.026

Cole Sulser (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 12 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 2 starts)

Batters per start: 8 (~0.9 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 51 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.1 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 8, 8, 9

Games: 51 (starts 2)

Saves: 3

Holds: 12

Games finished: 13

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 140 BF (59.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.27

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.4 (95 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 41.1

K% vs LHB: 23.6

AVG against vs LHB: .181 (127 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .260

xSLG against vs LHB: .356

Last 30 days vs LHB: 18 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 46.0%, Changeup 41.1%, Cutter 12.7%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (85 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 41% · Changeup 36% · Cutter 22%

vs Sulser's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .227

Pooled on those pitches: .228

At-bats: 193 (44 hits)

HR: 7

Weighted xBA: .252

Pooled SLG: .389

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (41%)	.275	22 for 80	.284	.512	5	12%	423
Changeup (36%)	.179	12 for 67	.215	.224	0	19%	277
Cutter (22%)	.217	10 for 46	.253	.413	2	14%	215

History: vs Sulser (career): 0-2, 0 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.3%

K per PA: 13.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): +2

Batter percentile: 12

Pitcher percentile: 26

Cole Sulser (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.7%9 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%25 BIP · 0 HR

1.2%13 BIP · 1 HR

9.4%32 BIP · 0 HR

5.9%41 BIP · 2 HR

4.7%19 BIP · 1 HR

3.5%29 BIP · 0 HR

3.5%39 BIP · 2 HR

1.2%11 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 85 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (7 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 218 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 296

Expected xSLG on his locations: .456

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.3

Overlap coverage: 40% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.114

Ian Seymour (LHP) — SETUP — usually 2.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 16 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 2.0 IP per outing (median of 49 games)

Usual innings (mean): 2.8 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 7 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 3, 3, 6, 4

Games: 49 (starts 16)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 7

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 0.3, 3.0, 1.3

Sample vs LHB: 199 BF (35.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 12

HR/9 vs LHB: 2.31

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.5 (133 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 38.3

K% vs LHB: 28.1

AVG against vs LHB: .239 (188 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .505

xSLG against vs LHB: .402

Last 30 days vs LHB: 29 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.64 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .138 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 29.7%, Sweeper 21.9%, Changeup 21.1%, Four-Seam 19.7%, Slider 7.4%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 7.5, Sweeper 32.6, Changeup 38.8, Four-Seam 29.8, Slider 13.3

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (104 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 40% · Four-Seam 26% · Sweeper 16% · Changeup 15%

vs Seymour's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .343

Pooled on those pitches: .297

At-bats: 111 (33 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .289

Pooled SLG: .505

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 83%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (40%)	.333	8 for 24	.271	.417	0	4%	121
Four-Seam (26%)	.245	12 for 49	.308	.490	3	8%	203
Sweeper (16%)	.571	4 for 7	.287	.714	0	0%	29	THIN
Changeup (15%)	.290	9 for 31	.304	.548	2	17%	100

History: vs Seymour (career): 1-4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K · .250 BA, .500 SLG, .250 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Ian Seymour (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

4.8%8 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%11 BIP · 1 HR

8.7%7 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%7 BIP · 1 HR

9.6%27 BIP · 1 HR

5.8%13 BIP · 1 HR

3.9%10 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%14 BIP · 1 HR

2.9%13 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 104 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (6 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 110 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 142

Expected xSLG on his locations: .540

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.3

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .513

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.027

Kevin Kelly (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 34 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 72 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.03 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 9, 7, 7, 8

Games: 72 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 34

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 123 BF (43.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.24

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.2 (98 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 57.1

K% vs LHB: 13.8

AVG against vs LHB: .243 (115 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .391

xSLG against vs LHB: .490

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 50.6%, Changeup 35.3%, Four-Seam 10.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 51% · Changeup 35% · Four-Seam 11%

vs Kelly's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .208

Pooled on those pitches: .229

At-bats: 175 (40 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .275

Pooled SLG: .354

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sinker (51%)	.214	6 for 28	.314	.214	0	10%	171
Changeup (35%)	.179	12 for 67	.215	.224	0	19%	277
Four-Seam (11%)	.275	22 for 80	.284	.512	5	12%	423

History: vs Kelly (career): 0-2, 0 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 2 pitches, 1 BBE, 1 hard-hit, 1 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Kevin Kelly (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

2.8%9 BIP · 1 HR

1.4%25 BIP · 0 HR

1.2%13 BIP · 1 HR

7.3%32 BIP · 0 HR

8.0%41 BIP · 2 HR

3.8%19 BIP · 1 HR

9.7%29 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%39 BIP · 2 HR

7.8%11 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 423 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches, below 60) (66 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 218 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 296

Expected xSLG on his locations: .477

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.9

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .575

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.098

Steven Matz (LHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.5 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 11 starts among 36 appearances

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 11 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 77 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.5 IP per outing (median of 36 games)

Usual innings (mean): 2.23 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 6 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 36 (starts 11)

Saves: 1

Holds: 1

Games finished: 7

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 119 BF (34.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 3

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.96

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.3 (94 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 28.7

K% vs LHB: 15.1

AVG against vs LHB: .200 (110 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .327

xSLG against vs LHB: .342

Last 30 days vs LHB: 10 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .111 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 58.9%, Changeup 16.9%, Curve 12.6%, Slider 11.6%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 10.3, Changeup 32.7, Curve 9.1, Slider 21.9

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 27 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 59% · Changeup 17% · Curve 13% · Slider 12%

vs Matz's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .272

Pooled on those pitches: .272

At-bats: 81 (22 hits)

HR: 3

Weighted xBA: .301

Pooled SLG: .457

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 87%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (59%)	.333	8 for 24	.271	.417	0	4%	121
Changeup (17%)	.290	9 for 31	.304	.548	2	17%	100
Curve (13%)	.000	0 for 4	.493	.000	0	11%	47	THIN
Slider (12%)	.227	5 for 22	.242	.455	1	19%	90

History: vs Matz (career): 3-14 (16 PA), 1 BB, 1 K · .214 BA, .214 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 8 pitches, 3 BBE, 2 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Steven Matz (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.1%8 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%11 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%7 BIP · 0 HR

7.8%7 BIP · 1 HR

10.7%27 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%13 BIP · 1 HR

10.2%10 BIP · 0 HR

9.0%14 BIP · 1 HR

3.6%13 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 421 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 27 pitches, below 60) (35 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 61%

Batter sample: 110 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 142

Expected xSLG on his locations: .528

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.8

Overlap coverage: 61% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .512

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.016

Brody Hopkins (RHP) — MIDDLE RELIEF — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: MIDDLE RELIEF

Role basis: 6 games, median 1.0 IP per outing, median entry 6.5 inning, 0 holds, 0 saves

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 6 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.89 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.5)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 7, 6, 7, 5

Games: 6 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 0

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 7 BF (29.2% of his batters) THIN

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00 THIN

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (2 BBE) THIN

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 0.0 THIN

K% vs LHB: 28.6

AVG against vs LHB: .000 (4 AB) THIN

SLG against vs LHB: .000 THIN

xSLG against vs LHB: .142 THIN

Last 30 days vs LHB: 7 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 52.9%, Curve 47.1%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 34 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 53% · Curve 47%

vs Hopkins's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .319

Pooled on those pitches: .293

At-bats: 99 (29 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .237

Pooled SLG: .556

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (53%)	.275	22 for 80	.284	.512	5	12%	423
Curve (47%)	.368	7 for 19	.184	.737	1	21%	95

History: vs Hopkins: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Brody Hopkins (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

0.0%9 BIP · 1 HR

2.9%25 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%13 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%32 BIP · 0 HR

8.8%41 BIP · 2 HR

0.0%19 BIP · 1 HR

14.7%29 BIP · 0 HR

11.8%39 BIP · 2 HR

5.9%11 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 34 pitches to LHB — THIN

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 34 pitches, below 60) (4 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 218 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 296

Expected xSLG on his locations: .465

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.4

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .559

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.094

THIN: pitcher location 34 pitches (< 60)

Griffin Jax (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 35 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 18 (~2.0 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 67 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 35 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 3

Games finished: 1

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 284 BF (60.6% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 10

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.35

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.8 (181 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.8

K% vs LHB: 28.2

AVG against vs LHB: .240 (258 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .391

xSLG against vs LHB: .402

Last 30 days vs LHB: 30 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .138

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 29.9%, Four-Seam 21.0%, Sweeper 16.6%, Sinker 15.6%, Curve 12.5%, Cutter 4.4%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 39.3, Four-Seam 26.5, Sweeper 28.2, Sinker 9.6, Curve 42.0, Cutter 16.7

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Freddy Peralta (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 33 starts in 33 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 33 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 93 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 33)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-05 (7 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.0, 5.7, 5.3, 4.7

Sample vs LHB: 477 BF (63.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 18

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.44

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.9 (332 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 38.0

K% vs LHB: 21.6

AVG against vs LHB: .252 (432 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .440

xSLG against vs LHB: .382

Last 30 days vs LHB: 51 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.75 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .214

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 51.8%, Changeup 26.9%, Curve 16.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 19.7, Changeup 27.2, Curve 32.9

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Nick Martinez (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.3, 5.0, 6.0, 2.7, 3.7

Sample vs LHB: 430 BF (58.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 13

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.16

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.0 (344 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.5

K% vs LHB: 15.8

AVG against vs LHB: .235 (409 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .389

xSLG against vs LHB: .401

Last 30 days vs LHB: 40 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.96 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .297

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 29.1%, Sinker 26.0%, Cutter 22.2%, Four-Seam 13.9%, Slider 4.4%, Curve 4.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 25.7, Sinker 6.4, Cutter 12.7, Four-Seam 13.7, Slider 24.2, Curve 18.8

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 2/5 (40%) · L10 2/10 (20%) · L20 3/20 (15%)

BAL
9/8BAL
9/9MIN
9/11MIN
9/12CWS
9/14CWS
9/15CWS
9/16ATH
9/18ATH
9/19ATH
9/20BOS
9/22BOS
9/23BOS
9/24KC
9/25KC
9/26CWS
10/3CWS
10/5CWS
10/7CWS
10/8CWS
10/10

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CH/FC/FF/SI (187 BIP)

x0.5708 BIP · 1 HR

x0.35020 BIP · 0 HR

x0.32512 BIP · 1 HR

x0.55225 BIP · 0 HR

x0.63621 BIP · 1 HR

x0.30113 BIP · 1 HR

x0.27312 BIP · 0 HR

x0.53420 BIP · 0 HR

x0.7248 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FC/FF/SI land vs LHB (1626 pitches, 50% in zone)

4.9%

6.8%

6.0%

3.3%

8.4%

7.3%

2.4%

4.4%

6.1%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CH/FC/FF/SI: 20 BIP, 1 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/10	Burke	FF	73.9	48	227	field out
10/8	Hicks	FF	103.1	25	378	home run
10/8	Fedde	SI	97.5	7	162	field out
10/7	Davis	FF	85.6	71	94	field out
10/3	Taylor	FF	93.9	23	329	field out
9/26	Lange	CH	75.4	-17	4	force out
9/26	Wacha	FC	103.2	10	172	field out
9/26	Wacha	CH	87.7	59	202	field out
9/26	Wacha	CH	100.2	-14	7	grounded into double play
9/25	Erceg	CH	91.8	30	351	field out
9/23	Gray	FF	94.6	36	346	field out
9/20	Perkins	CH	73.3	69	115	field out

TARGETBATTER-FIRSTPatrick Bailey (LHB, slot 7) vs Drew Rasmussen · model 9.2% LEAKY: Four-Seam

Model & price

Model HR %: 9.2%

Best HR price: +16000 @ betrivers (2 books · median +8425)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 8.9% (fair +1024)

Our model HR %: 9.2%

Difference: Ballpark Pal −0.3 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.10

Projected PA (sim): 4.0

Ballpark Pal's starter: Drew Rasmussen (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Drew Rasmussen: 2.2% neutral

HR per PA vs Drew Rasmussen, park-adjusted: 2.3%

vs his typical HR rate: −26%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: −23%

Strikeout per PA vs Drew Rasmussen: 34.3%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +28%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×1.03

Stadium only: ×0.87

Weather (multiplier deviation): +0.16

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	52.6%	-111
Hits	1.5	15.2%	+558
Total bases	0.5	52.6%	-111
Total bases	1.5	28.0%	+257
Total bases	2.5	15.4%	+549

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .634 OPS · 9 HR · 287 PA

Batter is: AWAY · .611 OPS · 5 HR · 166 PA

Night: .666 OPS · 6 HR · 212 PA

Day: .514 OPS · 4 HR · 133 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.500	3 for 6	1	6	3	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.400	4 for 10	1	10	5
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.400	4 for 10	1	11	3
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.333	5 for 15	1	16	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 30 PA · .286 / .333 / .607 · ISO .321 · wOBA .397

Hits: 5 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 3 HR · 2 BB · 7 K

Contact: GB 33% · LD 38% · FB 29%

Quality: 4 barrels (19%) · hard-hit 52% · 92.1 mph on 21 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 21 PA · .350 / .381 / .800 · ISO .450 · wOBA .490

Hits: 4 1B · 0 2B · 0 3B · 3 HR · 1 BB · 6 K

Contact: GB 29% · LD 36% · FB 36%

Quality: 4 barrels (29%) · hard-hit 50% · 92.0 mph on 14 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Rasmussen: never faced him

Escape: NO ESCAPE

Wind: roof closed — no wind effect

vs Rasmussen's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-05 to 10-03)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 270

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Cutter 27% · Changeup 27% · Four-Seam 23% LEAKY · Sinker 21%

vs Rasmussen's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .202

Pooled on those pitches: .213

At-bats: 188 (40 hits)

HR: 8

Weighted xBA: .255

Pooled SLG: .378

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Cutter (27%)	.200	4 for 20	.285	.300	0	22%	97
Changeup (27%)	.157	8 for 51	.208	.294	2	25%	167
Four-Seam (23%) LEAKY	.256	20 for 78	.260	.436	4	22%	367
Sinker (21%)	.205	8 for 39	.270	.410	2	11%	158

vs Rasmussen's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .124

Pooled on those pitches: .143

At-bats: 21 (3 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .178

Pooled SLG: .429

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 0%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (27%)	.000	0 for 3	.088	.000	0	0%	20	THIN
Changeup (27%)	.143	1 for 7	.118	.571	1	45%	18	THIN
Four-Seam (23%) LEAKY	.000	0 for 6	.099	.000	0	42%	31	THIN
Sinker (21%)	.400	2 for 5	.461	1.000	1	22%	24	THIN

Four-Seam LEAKY23% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · TARGETABLE · TARGET (FIT)

Pitch allows (last 5 starts): 0 hits · 29% hard-hit · 14% barrels

Pitch fly-ball profile: 50% barrels/FB · 50% pull/FB · 29% FB · 0 HR on 7 BBE

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.903 · 14% barrels · 4 HR on 49 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .256 (78 AB) · 63% in the air · 89.1 mph · 51% hard-hit · 197 ft avg · 4 HR on 49 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .000 (4 AB) · 100% in the air · 101.1 mph · 100% hard-hit · 394 ft avg · 0 HR on 1 BBE

Last-10 check: NO RECENT DATA — under 2 balls in play on it in his last 10 games

Zone overlap vs Rasmussen

Drew Rasmussen (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.6%10 BIP · 0 HR

8.2%20 BIP · 3 HR

6.3%4 BIP · 0 HR

3.7%29 BIP · 1 HR

8.2%32 BIP · 1 HR

8.5%13 BIP · 2 HR

1.1%23 BIP · 0 HR

5.2%28 BIP · 1 HR

3.7%10 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 270 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 50%

Batter sample: 169 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 206

Expected xSLG on his locations: .660

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.2

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .572

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.088

Changeup (CH): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

5.6%1 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%10 BIP · 1 HR

6.9%5 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%1 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%5 BIP · 0 HR

12.5%3 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 72 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 29 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 42

Expected xSLG on his locations: .270

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 1.4

Overlap coverage: 29% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: 8

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .588

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.318

Cutter (FC): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

4.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%1 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%0 BIP · 0 HR

9.5%2 BIP · 0 HR

14.9%3 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%2 BIP · 0 HR

2.7%3 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 74 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 17 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 17

Expected xSLG on his locations: .499

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 28% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .580

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.081

THIN: batter 17 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP LEAKY

4.9%6 BIP · 0 HR

14.8%10 BIP · 1 HR

11.5%2 BIP · 0 HR

4.9%5 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%8 BIP · 1 HR

3.3%3 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%2 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%8 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%2 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 46 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 49

Expected xSLG on his locations: .823

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.9

Overlap coverage: 34% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 2

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .547

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.276

Sinker (SI): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

8.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

16.1%4 BIP · 2 HR

10.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%3 BIP · 0 HR

8.9%6 BIP · 0 HR

8.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%7 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%0 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 56 pitches to LHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 66%

Batter sample: 27 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 31

Expected xSLG on his locations: .680

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 13.2

Overlap coverage: 29% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 2

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .559

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.121

THIN: pitcher location 56 pitches (< 60)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Tampa Bay Rays — behind Drew Rasmussen

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 1.13 (948 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 7.3

Pen K % to LHB: 23.2

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (8 of 11 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Bryan Baker

Available tonight: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly, Brody Hopkins, Steven Matz

Not available / flagged: none

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly, Steven Matz

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 3 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.250	1 for 4	0	5	3	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.200	1 for 5	0	6	5	THIN

Arms listed: 11 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Bryan Baker (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 44 saves in 68 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 68 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.96 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 9, 9, 9

Games: 68 (starts 0)

Saves: 44

Holds: 2

Games finished: 55

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 134 BF (52.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.57

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.5 (92 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.3

K% vs LHB: 23.1

AVG against vs LHB: .139 (122 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .246

xSLG against vs LHB: .283

Last 30 days vs LHB: 16 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .143 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 49.7%, Four-Seam 49.7%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (61 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 52% · Changeup 46%

vs Baker's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .210

Pooled on those pitches: .217

At-bats: 129 (28 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .236

Pooled SLG: .380

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (52%)	.256	20 for 78	.260	.436	4	22%	367
Changeup (46%)	.157	8 for 51	.208	.294	2	25%	167

History: vs Baker: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.7%

K per PA: 32.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −4

Batter percentile: 25

Pitcher percentile: 83

Bryan Baker (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.9%10 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%20 BIP · 3 HR

0.0%4 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%29 BIP · 1 HR

8.2%32 BIP · 1 HR

6.6%13 BIP · 2 HR

8.2%23 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%28 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%10 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 169 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 206

Expected xSLG on his locations: .619

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.5

Overlap coverage: 44% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .569

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.050

Tyler Wells (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 15 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.26 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 9, 9, 8, 7

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 15

Games finished: 19

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-12 (30 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 152 BF (54.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.01

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.9 (101 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 22.8

K% vs LHB: 25.7

AVG against vs LHB: .175 (137 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .292

xSLG against vs LHB: .321

Last 30 days vs LHB: 1 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 35.7%, Cutter 30.3%, Four-Seam 26.0%, Curve 7.3%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 5 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Changeup 36% · Cutter 30% · Four-Seam 26% · Curve 7%

vs Wells's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .201

Pooled on those pitches: .215

At-bats: 172 (37 hits)

HR: 7

Weighted xBA: .245

Pooled SLG: .366

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Changeup (36%)	.157	8 for 51	.208	.294	2	25%	167
Cutter (30%)	.200	4 for 20	.285	.300	0	22%	97
Four-Seam (26%)	.256	20 for 78	.260	.436	4	22%	367
Curve (7%)	.217	5 for 23	.215	.348	1	35%	90

History: vs Wells (career): 0-2, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.4%

K per PA: 29.8%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −6

Batter percentile: 18

Pitcher percentile: 38

Tyler Wells (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.5%10 BIP · 0 HR

9.6%20 BIP · 3 HR

3.3%4 BIP · 0 HR

10.5%29 BIP · 1 HR

11.0%32 BIP · 1 HR

4.8%13 BIP · 2 HR

6.4%23 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%28 BIP · 1 HR

2.1%10 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 581 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 5 pitches, below 60) (54 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 58%

Batter sample: 169 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 206

Expected xSLG on his locations: .676

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.3

Overlap coverage: 58% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.106

Cam Booser (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 14 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 44 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.95 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 6, 5, 8

Games: 44 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 14

Games finished: 6

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 0.3, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 74 BF (46.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.03

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.5 (44 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 36.4

K% vs LHB: 32.4

AVG against vs LHB: .118 (68 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .221

xSLG against vs LHB: .309

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 43.8%, Cutter 34.4%, Sweeper 21.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 50 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 44% · Cutter 34% · Sweeper 22%

vs Booser's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .083

Pooled on those pitches: .097

At-bats: 31 (3 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .110

Pooled SLG: .129

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 44%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (44%)	.091	2 for 22	.169	.136	16%	105
Cutter (34%)	.000	0 for 4	.039	.000	38%	21	THIN
Sweeper (22%)	.200	1 for 5	.103	.200	45%	21	THIN

History: vs Booser: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.9%

K per PA: 36.9%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −9

Batter percentile: 5

Pitcher percentile: 87

Cam Booser (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.3%0 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%3 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%1 BIP · 0 HR

7.2%6 BIP · 1 HR

9.8%6 BIP · 0 HR

9.8%2 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%6 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%7 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%4 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 276 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 50 pitches, below 60) (40 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 35 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 39

Expected xSLG on his locations: .510

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.3

Overlap coverage: 38% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .516

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.006

Cole Sulser (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 12 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 2 starts)

Batters per start: 8 (~0.9 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 51 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.1 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 8, 8, 9

Games: 51 (starts 2)

Saves: 3

Holds: 12

Games finished: 13

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 140 BF (59.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.27

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.4 (95 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 41.1

K% vs LHB: 23.6

AVG against vs LHB: .181 (127 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .260

xSLG against vs LHB: .356

Last 30 days vs LHB: 18 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 46.0%, Changeup 41.1%, Cutter 12.7%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (85 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 41% · Changeup 36% · Cutter 22%

vs Sulser's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .207

Pooled on those pitches: .215

At-bats: 149 (32 hits)

HR: 6

Weighted xBA: .246

Pooled SLG: .369

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (41%)	.256	20 for 78	.260	.436	4	22%	367
Changeup (36%)	.157	8 for 51	.208	.294	2	25%	167
Cutter (22%)	.200	4 for 20	.285	.300	0	22%	97

History: vs Sulser: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.2%

K per PA: 32.0%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −6

Batter percentile: 13

Pitcher percentile: 90

Cole Sulser (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.7%10 BIP · 0 HR

5.9%20 BIP · 3 HR

1.2%4 BIP · 0 HR

9.4%29 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%32 BIP · 1 HR

4.7%13 BIP · 2 HR

3.5%23 BIP · 0 HR

3.5%28 BIP · 1 HR

1.2%10 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 85 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (7 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 169 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 206

Expected xSLG on his locations: .676

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.6

Overlap coverage: 40% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.106

Ian Seymour (LHP) — SETUP — usually 2.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 16 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 2.0 IP per outing (median of 49 games)

Usual innings (mean): 2.8 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 7 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 3, 3, 6, 4

Games: 49 (starts 16)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 7

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 0.3, 3.0, 1.3

Sample vs LHB: 199 BF (35.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 12

HR/9 vs LHB: 2.31

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.5 (133 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 38.3

K% vs LHB: 28.1

AVG against vs LHB: .239 (188 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .505

xSLG against vs LHB: .402

Last 30 days vs LHB: 29 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.64 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .138 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 29.7%, Sweeper 21.9%, Changeup 21.1%, Four-Seam 19.7%, Slider 7.4%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 7.5, Sweeper 32.6, Changeup 38.8, Four-Seam 29.8, Slider 13.3

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (104 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 40% · Four-Seam 26% · Sweeper 16% · Changeup 15%

vs Seymour's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .175

Pooled on those pitches: .132

At-bats: 38 (5 hits)

HR: 0

Weighted xBA: .248

Pooled SLG: .158

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 26%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (40%)	.286	2 for 7	.425	.286	10%	47	THIN
Four-Seam (26%)	.091	2 for 22	.169	.136	16%	105
Sweeper (16%)	.200	1 for 5	.103	.200	45%	21	THIN
Changeup (15%)	.000	0 for 4	.073	.000	40%	27	THIN

History: vs Seymour (career): 1-2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K · .500 BA, 1.000 SLG, .500 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Ian Seymour (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

4.8%0 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%3 BIP · 0 HR

8.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%6 BIP · 1 HR

9.6%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.8%2 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%6 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%7 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%4 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 104 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (6 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 35 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 39

Expected xSLG on his locations: .540

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.5

Overlap coverage: 36% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .518

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.022

Kevin Kelly (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 34 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 72 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.03 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 9, 7, 7, 8

Games: 72 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 34

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 123 BF (43.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.24

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.2 (98 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 57.1

K% vs LHB: 13.8

AVG against vs LHB: .243 (115 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .391

xSLG against vs LHB: .490

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 50.6%, Changeup 35.3%, Four-Seam 10.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 51% · Changeup 35% · Four-Seam 11%

vs Kelly's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .193

Pooled on those pitches: .214

At-bats: 168 (36 hits)

HR: 8

Weighted xBA: .246

Pooled SLG: .387

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sinker (51%)	.205	8 for 39	.270	.410	2	11%	158
Changeup (35%)	.157	8 for 51	.208	.294	2	25%	167
Four-Seam (11%)	.256	20 for 78	.260	.436	4	22%	367

History: vs Kelly (career): 0-1 (2 PA), 1 BB, 0 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 5 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Kevin Kelly (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

2.8%10 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%20 BIP · 3 HR

1.2%4 BIP · 0 HR

7.3%29 BIP · 1 HR

8.0%32 BIP · 1 HR

3.8%13 BIP · 2 HR

9.7%23 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%28 BIP · 1 HR

7.8%10 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 423 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches, below 60) (66 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 169 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 206

Expected xSLG on his locations: .557

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.2

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .575

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.018

Steven Matz (LHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.5 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 11 starts among 36 appearances

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 11 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 77 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.5 IP per outing (median of 36 games)

Usual innings (mean): 2.23 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 6 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 36 (starts 11)

Saves: 1

Holds: 1

Games finished: 7

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 119 BF (34.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 3

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.96

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.3 (94 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 28.7

K% vs LHB: 15.1

AVG against vs LHB: .200 (110 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .327

xSLG against vs LHB: .342

Last 30 days vs LHB: 10 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .111 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 58.9%, Changeup 16.9%, Curve 12.6%, Slider 11.6%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 10.3, Changeup 32.7, Curve 9.1, Slider 21.9

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 27 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 59% · Changeup 17% · Curve 13% · Slider 12%

vs Matz's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .207

Pooled on those pitches: .182

At-bats: 22 (4 hits)

HR: 1

Weighted xBA: .326

Pooled SLG: .318

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 0%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (59%)	.286	2 for 7	.425	.286	0	10%	47	THIN
Changeup (17%)	.000	0 for 4	.073	.000	0	40%	27	THIN
Curve (13%)	.000	0 for 5	.217	.000	0	38%	20	THIN
Slider (12%)	.333	2 for 6	.308	.833	1	22%	34	THIN

History: vs Matz (career): 0-1, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Steven Matz (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.1%0 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%3 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%1 BIP · 0 HR

7.8%6 BIP · 1 HR

10.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

6.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

10.2%6 BIP · 0 HR

9.0%7 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%4 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 421 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 27 pitches, below 60) (35 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 61%

Batter sample: 35 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 39

Expected xSLG on his locations: .554

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.3

Overlap coverage: 46% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .514

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.040

Brody Hopkins (RHP) — MIDDLE RELIEF — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: MIDDLE RELIEF

Role basis: 6 games, median 1.0 IP per outing, median entry 6.5 inning, 0 holds, 0 saves

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 6 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.89 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.5)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 7, 6, 7, 5

Games: 6 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 0

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 7 BF (29.2% of his batters) THIN

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00 THIN

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (2 BBE) THIN

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 0.0 THIN

K% vs LHB: 28.6

AVG against vs LHB: .000 (4 AB) THIN

SLG against vs LHB: .000 THIN

xSLG against vs LHB: .142 THIN

Last 30 days vs LHB: 7 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 52.9%, Curve 47.1%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 34 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 53% · Curve 47%

vs Hopkins's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .238

Pooled on those pitches: .248

At-bats: 101 (25 hits)

HR: 5

Weighted xBA: .239

Pooled SLG: .416

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (53%)	.256	20 for 78	.260	.436	4	22%	367
Curve (47%)	.217	5 for 23	.215	.348	1	35%	90

History: vs Hopkins: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Brody Hopkins (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

0.0%10 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%20 BIP · 3 HR

2.9%4 BIP · 0 HR

5.9%29 BIP · 1 HR

8.8%32 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%13 BIP · 2 HR

14.7%23 BIP · 0 HR

11.8%28 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%10 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 34 pitches to LHB — THIN

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 34 pitches, below 60) (4 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 169 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 206

Expected xSLG on his locations: .548

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.5

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .559

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.011

THIN: pitcher location 34 pitches (< 60)

Griffin Jax (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 35 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 18 (~2.0 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 67 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 35 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 3

Games finished: 1

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 284 BF (60.6% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 10

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.35

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.8 (181 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.8

K% vs LHB: 28.2

AVG against vs LHB: .240 (258 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .391

xSLG against vs LHB: .402

Last 30 days vs LHB: 30 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .138

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 29.9%, Four-Seam 21.0%, Sweeper 16.6%, Sinker 15.6%, Curve 12.5%, Cutter 4.4%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 39.3, Four-Seam 26.5, Sweeper 28.2, Sinker 9.6, Curve 42.0, Cutter 16.7

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Freddy Peralta (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 33 starts in 33 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 33 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 93 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 33)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-05 (7 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.0, 5.7, 5.3, 4.7

Sample vs LHB: 477 BF (63.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 18

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.44

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.9 (332 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 38.0

K% vs LHB: 21.6

AVG against vs LHB: .252 (432 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .440

xSLG against vs LHB: .382

Last 30 days vs LHB: 51 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.75 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .214

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 51.8%, Changeup 26.9%, Curve 16.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 19.7, Changeup 27.2, Curve 32.9

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Nick Martinez (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.3, 5.0, 6.0, 2.7, 3.7

Sample vs LHB: 430 BF (58.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 13

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.16

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.0 (344 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.5

K% vs LHB: 15.8

AVG against vs LHB: .235 (409 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .389

xSLG against vs LHB: .401

Last 30 days vs LHB: 40 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.96 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .297

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 29.1%, Sinker 26.0%, Cutter 22.2%, Four-Seam 13.9%, Slider 4.4%, Curve 4.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 25.7, Sinker 6.4, Cutter 12.7, Four-Seam 13.7, Slider 24.2, Curve 18.8

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 1/5 (20%) · L10 2/10 (20%) · L20 2/20 (10%)

DET
9/4DET
9/6BAL
9/7BAL
9/8BAL
9/9MIN
9/13CWS
9/14CWS
9/15ATH
9/18ATH
9/20BOS
9/23BOS
9/24KC
9/25KC
9/26KC
9/27CWS
10/3CWS
10/5CWS
10/7CWS
10/8CWS
10/10

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CH/FC/FF/SI (139 BIP)

x0.6949 BIP · 0 HR

x1.23818 BIP · 3 HR

x0.2734 BIP · 0 HR

x0.51118 BIP · 1 HR

x0.72921 BIP · 1 HR

x0.6259 BIP · 1 HR

x0.40416 BIP · 0 HR

x0.54816 BIP · 1 HR

x0.2188 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FC/FF/SI land vs LHB (1626 pitches, 50% in zone)

4.9%

6.8%

6.0%

3.3%

8.4%

7.3%

2.4%

4.4%

6.1%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CH/FC/FF/SI: 11 BIP, 2 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/10	Burke	FC	90.7	-17	10	field out
10/8	Fedde	SI	110.0	22	376	home run
10/5	Burke	FC	100.2	40	330	field out
9/26	Bivens	FF	101.1	29	394	field out
9/26	Lange	CH	100.3	29	380	home run
9/23	Gray	SI	68.3	24	203	single
9/15	Martin	CH	89.8	-21	5	field out
9/15	Martin	FC	97.3	48	300	field out
9/14	Richards	CH	51.7	-66	1	field out
9/13	Adams	SI	84.3	5	103	double play
9/13	Ryan	SI	92.1	29	326	field out
9/9	Baz	CH	96.7	25	329	double

TARGETTravis Bazzana (LHB, slot 6) vs Drew Rasmussen · model 8.7% LEAKY: Four-Seam

Model & price

Model HR %: 8.7%

Best HR price: +22500 @ betrivers (2 books · median +11725)

Ballpark Paltheir model, shown next to ours — never blended into a score

HR chance (Ballpark Pal): 10.1% (fair +890)

Our model HR %: 8.7%

Difference: Ballpark Pal +1.4 points

Projected HR (sim): 0.11

Projected PA (sim): 4.1

Ballpark Pal's starter: Drew Rasmussen (same as our read)

HR per PA vs Drew Rasmussen: 2.1% neutral

HR per PA vs Drew Rasmussen, park-adjusted: 2.0%

vs his typical HR rate: −23%

vs his typical, park-adjusted: −27%

Strikeout per PA vs Drew Rasmussen: 24.3%

Strikeouts vs his typical rate: +8%

Hitter park factor tonight: ×0.95

Stadium only: ×1.12

Weather (multiplier deviation): −0.17

Hits / total-bases lines (Ballpark Pal fair odds, not a book):

Market	Line	Over %	Fair odds
Hits	0.5	50.2%	-101
Hits	1.5	13.2%	+658
Total bases	0.5	50.2%	-101
Total bases	1.5	27.2%	+268
Total bases	2.5	15.4%	+549

Ballpark Pal data as of: 20:30 UTC

Splits

vs RHP 2026: .846 OPS · 13 HR · 352 PA

Batter is: AWAY · .779 OPS · 8 HR · 254 PA

Night: .785 OPS · 12 HR · 324 PA

Day: .670 OPS · 3 HR · 193 PA

Rolling batting average (5 & 10 days, by hand)

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12

Window	AVG	H for AB	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs RHP	.000	0 for 4	5	3	THIN
Last 10 days vs RHP	.000	0 for 8	10	5	THIN
Last 5 days, all pitchers	.111	1 for 9	11	3	THIN
Last 10 days, all pitchers	.125	2 for 16	19	5

Last 10 games form

Last 10 games, all pitchers: 10 games · 39 PA · .171 / .256 / .343 · ISO .171 · wOBA .295

Hits: 1 1B · 4 2B · 1 3B · 0 HR · 4 BB · 9 K

Contact: GB 28% · LD 20% · FB 44%

Quality: 2 barrels (8%) · hard-hit 32% · 87.2 mph on 25 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP: 10 games · 18 PA · .200 / .333 / .400 · ISO .200 · wOBA .325

Hits: 1 1B · 1 2B · 1 3B · 0 HR · 3 BB · 6 K

Contact: GB 22% · LD 22% · FB 56%

Quality: 1 barrels (11%) · hard-hit 56% · 91.7 mph on 9 BBE

History · escape · wind

History: vs Rasmussen (career): 0-5, 0 BB, 1 K · .000 BA, .000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 13 pitches, 4 BBE, 2 hard-hit, 0 brl

Escape: PARTIAL — escape: Cutter 27%

Wind: roof closed — no wind effect

vs Rasmussen's mix

Mix window: last 5 starts (09-05 to 10-03)

Pitches to LHB in the window: 270

Mix to LHB (3%+ use): Cutter 27% · Changeup 27% · Four-Seam 23% LEAKY · Sinker 21%

vs Rasmussen's mix (2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .265

Pooled on those pitches: .297

At-bats: 222 (66 hits)

HR: 12

Weighted xBA: .256

Pooled SLG: .554

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Cutter (27%)	.148	4 for 27	.254	.259	0	23%	156
Changeup (27%)	.244	10 for 41	.203	.463	2	34%	236
Four-Seam (23%) LEAKY	.319	36 for 113	.290	.611	7	13%	446
Sinker (21%)	.390	16 for 41	.287	.683	3	7%	147

vs Rasmussen's mix (last 30 days, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .193

Pooled on those pitches: .250

At-bats: 24 (6 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .233

Pooled SLG: .625

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 23%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Cutter (27%)	.000	0 for 3	.141	.000	0	15%	29	THIN
Changeup (27%)	.250	1 for 4	.237	.750	0	12%	17	THIN
Four-Seam (23%) LEAKY	.308	4 for 13	.314	.615	1	9%	39
Sinker (21%)	.250	1 for 4	.263	1.000	1	0%	19	THIN

Four-Seam LEAKY23% of his mix to LHB, last 5 starts · TARGETABLE · TARGET (FIT)

Pitch allows (last 5 starts): 0 hits · 29% hard-hit · 14% barrels

Pitch fly-ball profile: 50% barrels/FB · 50% pull/FB · 29% FB · 0 HR on 7 BBE

His 2026 season vs RHP: x0.609 · 8% barrels · 7 HR on 96 BBE

2026 vs RHP: .319 (113 AB) · 67% in the air · 92.1 mph · 50% hard-hit · 215 ft avg · 7 HR on 96 BBE

Last 10 games vs RHP on it: .286 (7 AB) · 83% in the air · 91.9 mph · 50% hard-hit · 236 ft avg · 0 HR on 6 BBE

Last-10 check: YES — 4 of 5: hits it, in the air, hard, far

Zone overlap vs Rasmussen

Drew Rasmussen (RHP, starter) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.6%6 BIP · 0 HR

8.2%21 BIP · 2 HR

6.3%9 BIP · 0 HR

3.7%29 BIP · 1 HR

8.2%45 BIP · 5 HR

8.5%18 BIP · 3 HR

1.1%23 BIP · 0 HR

5.2%39 BIP · 1 HR

3.7%22 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 270 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 50%

Batter sample: 212 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .539

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.0

Overlap coverage: 50% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .572

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.033

Changeup (CH): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

5.6%0 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%1 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%8 BIP · 0 HR

6.9%2 BIP · 0 HR

5.6%0 BIP · 0 HR

2.8%4 BIP · 0 HR

12.5%4 BIP · 1 HR

1.4%2 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 72 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 21 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 31

Expected xSLG on his locations: .576

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 13.1

Overlap coverage: 21% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 8

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .598

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.022

THIN: batter 21 BIP in zone (< 25)

Cutter (FC): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

4.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%1 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%1 BIP · 0 HR

9.5%5 BIP · 0 HR

14.9%3 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%0 BIP · 0 HR

2.7%3 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%6 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 74 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 20 balls in play in zone vs RHP — THIN

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 21

Expected xSLG on his locations: .502

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 0.0

Overlap coverage: 32% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 6

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .579

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.077

THIN: batter 20 BIP in zone (< 25)

Four-Seam (FF): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP LEAKY

4.9%6 BIP · 0 HR

14.8%13 BIP · 2 HR

11.5%4 BIP · 0 HR

4.9%8 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%22 BIP · 3 HR

3.3%8 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%5 BIP · 0 HR

0.0%9 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%7 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 49%

Batter sample: 82 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 96

Expected xSLG on his locations: .547

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 7.3

Overlap coverage: 49% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: 2

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .547

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: +.000

Sinker (SI): Drew Rasmussen's location vs LHB over the batter's xSLG on that pitch vs RHP

8.9%0 BIP · 0 HR

16.1%3 BIP · 0 HR

10.7%1 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%6 BIP · 1 HR

8.9%8 BIP · 1 HR

8.9%2 BIP · 1 HR

0.0%3 BIP · 0 HR

3.6%10 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%3 BIP · 0 HR

Pitcher sample: 56 pitches to LHB — THIN

Pitcher window: last 5 starts (5 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 66%

Batter sample: 36 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 40

Expected xSLG on his locations: .264

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 10.8

Overlap coverage: 38% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: 2

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .565

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.301

THIN: pitcher location 56 pitches (< 60)

vs the bullpen

Pen: Tampa Bay Rays — behind Drew Rasmussen

Pen HR/9 to LHB: 1.13 (948 BF)

Pen barrel % to LHB: 7.3

Pen K % to LHB: 23.2

Pen totals basis: relief-role arms only (8 of 11 arms; STARTER-role arms excluded)

Closer: Bryan Baker

Available tonight: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly, Brody Hopkins, Steven Matz

Not available / flagged: none

Likely late-inning arms (enter 7th+): Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser, Ian Seymour, Kevin Kelly, Steven Matz

Window ends: the day before 2026-10-12 · this pen has 3 LHP arms

Window	AVG	H for AB	HR	PA	Games	Note
Last 5 days vs LHP	.200	1 for 5	0	6	3	THIN
Last 10 days vs LHP	.250	2 for 8	0	9	5	THIN

Arms listed: 11 (leverage arms first, rotation arms last)

Ballpark Pal matchup requests for this pen: Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Cam Booser, Cole Sulser (this bat is in the top 25 by model %)

Bryan Baker (RHP) — CLOSER — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~9th — FRESH

Role: CLOSER

Role basis: 44 saves in 68 games (bar max(5, 30% of G) = 20)

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 68 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.96 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 9th inning (median 9.0)

Entry inning last 5: 9, 9, 9, 9, 9

Games: 68 (starts 0)

Saves: 44

Holds: 2

Games finished: 55

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 134 BF (52.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.57

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.5 (92 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 29.3

K% vs LHB: 23.1

AVG against vs LHB: .139 (122 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .246

xSLG against vs LHB: .283

Last 30 days vs LHB: 16 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .143 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 49.7%, Four-Seam 49.7%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (61 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 52% · Changeup 46%

vs Baker's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .284

Pooled on those pitches: .299

At-bats: 154 (46 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .249

Pooled SLG: .571

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (52%)	.319	36 for 113	.290	.611	7	13%	446
Changeup (46%)	.244	10 for 41	.203	.463	2	34%	236

History: vs Baker (career): 1-1, 0 BB, 0 K · 1.000 BA, 1.000 SLG, .000 ISO · 2026: 3 pitches, 1 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.8%

K per PA: 24.9%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −1

Batter percentile: 36

Pitcher percentile: 54

Bryan Baker (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.9%6 BIP · 0 HR

1.6%21 BIP · 2 HR

0.0%9 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%29 BIP · 1 HR

8.2%45 BIP · 5 HR

6.6%18 BIP · 3 HR

8.2%23 BIP · 0 HR

6.6%39 BIP · 1 HR

1.6%22 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 61 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (8 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 44%

Batter sample: 212 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .538

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 5.9

Overlap coverage: 44% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .569

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.031

Tyler Wells (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~8th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 15 holds, median entry 8.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 57 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.26 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 5 (median)

Enters: about the 8th inning (median 8.0)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 9, 9, 8, 7

Games: 57 (starts 0)

Saves: 6

Holds: 15

Games finished: 19

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-12 (30 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.7, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 152 BF (54.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.01

Barrel% vs LHB: 5.9 (101 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 22.8

K% vs LHB: 25.7

AVG against vs LHB: .175 (137 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .292

xSLG against vs LHB: .321

Last 30 days vs LHB: 1 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 35.7%, Cutter 30.3%, Four-Seam 26.0%, Curve 7.3%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 5 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Changeup 36% · Cutter 30% · Four-Seam 26% · Curve 7%

vs Wells's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .243

Pooled on those pitches: .281

At-bats: 192 (54 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .241

Pooled SLG: .516

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Changeup (36%)	.244	10 for 41	.203	.463	2	34%	236
Cutter (30%)	.148	4 for 27	.254	.259	0	23%	156
Four-Seam (26%)	.319	36 for 113	.290	.611	7	13%	446
Curve (7%)	.364	4 for 11	.202	.364	0	30%	92

History: vs Wells: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.9%

K per PA: 26.2%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −7

Batter percentile: 5

Pitcher percentile: 59

Tyler Wells (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

5.5%6 BIP · 0 HR

9.6%21 BIP · 2 HR

3.3%9 BIP · 0 HR

10.5%29 BIP · 1 HR

11.0%45 BIP · 5 HR

4.8%18 BIP · 3 HR

6.4%23 BIP · 0 HR

5.0%39 BIP · 1 HR

2.1%22 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 581 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 5 pitches, below 60) (54 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 58%

Batter sample: 212 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .531

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.1

Overlap coverage: 58% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.039

Cam Booser (LHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 14 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 44 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.95 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 3 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 6, 5, 8

Games: 44 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 14

Games finished: 6

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.7 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.7, 1.0, 0.3, 0.7

Sample vs LHB: 74 BF (46.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 2

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.03

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.5 (44 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 36.4

K% vs LHB: 32.4

AVG against vs LHB: .118 (68 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .221

xSLG against vs LHB: .309

Last 30 days vs LHB: 13 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 43.8%, Cutter 34.4%, Sweeper 21.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 50 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 44% · Cutter 34% · Sweeper 22%

vs Booser's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .250

Pooled on those pitches: .188

At-bats: 69 (13 hits)

HR: 1

Weighted xBA: .307

Pooled SLG: .246

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 66%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (44%)	.143	6 for 42	.162	.238	1	19%	214
Cutter (34%)	.400	2 for 5	.545	.400	0	31%	37	THIN
Sweeper (22%)	.227	5 for 22	.222	.227	0	18%	95

History: vs Booser: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 2.7%

K per PA: 29.0%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −6

Batter percentile: 7

Pitcher percentile: 61

Cam Booser (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.3%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.7%5 BIP · 0 HR

5.4%7 BIP · 0 HR

7.2%11 BIP · 0 HR

9.8%12 BIP · 0 HR

9.8%19 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%12 BIP · 0 HR

6.2%17 BIP · 2 HR

3.6%7 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 276 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 50 pitches, below 60) (40 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 95 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 118

Expected xSLG on his locations: .379

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.2

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .513

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.134

Cole Sulser (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 12 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 2.0 IP (median of 2 starts)

Batters per start: 8 (~0.9 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 32 (median)

Leaves after inning: 2.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 51 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.1 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 6, 8, 8, 9

Games: 51 (starts 2)

Saves: 3

Holds: 12

Games finished: 13

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 140 BF (59.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 1

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.27

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.4 (95 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 41.1

K% vs LHB: 23.6

AVG against vs LHB: .181 (127 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .260

xSLG against vs LHB: .356

Last 30 days vs LHB: 18 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 46.0%, Changeup 41.1%, Cutter 12.7%

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (85 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 41% · Changeup 36% · Cutter 22%

vs Sulser's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .253

Pooled on those pitches: .276

At-bats: 181 (50 hits)

HR: 9

Weighted xBA: .250

Pooled SLG: .525

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Four-Seam (41%)	.319	36 for 113	.290	.611	7	13%	446
Changeup (36%)	.244	10 for 41	.203	.463	2	34%	236
Cutter (22%)	.148	4 for 27	.254	.259	0	23%	156

History: vs Sulser (career): 0-0 (1 PA), 1 BB, 0 K · 2026: 4 pitches, 0 BBE, 0 hard-hit, 0 brl

Ballpark Pal matchup vs this arm: HR per PA 3.7%

K per PA: 22.7%

Matchup advantage (−10 pitcher … +10 batter): −1

Batter percentile: 33

Pitcher percentile: 44

Cole Sulser (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

4.7%6 BIP · 0 HR

5.9%21 BIP · 2 HR

1.2%9 BIP · 0 HR

9.4%29 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%45 BIP · 5 HR

4.7%18 BIP · 3 HR

3.5%23 BIP · 0 HR

3.5%39 BIP · 1 HR

1.2%22 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 85 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (7 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 40%

Batter sample: 212 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .540

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 6.2

Overlap coverage: 40% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .570

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.030

Ian Seymour (LHP) — SETUP — usually 2.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 11 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 16 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 2.0 IP per outing (median of 49 games)

Usual innings (mean): 2.8 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 7 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 2, 3, 3, 6, 4

Games: 49 (starts 16)

Saves: 2

Holds: 11

Games finished: 7

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 1.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 0.3, 3.0, 1.3

Sample vs LHB: 199 BF (35.1% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 12

HR/9 vs LHB: 2.31

Barrel% vs LHB: 10.5 (133 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 38.3

K% vs LHB: 28.1

AVG against vs LHB: .239 (188 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .505

xSLG against vs LHB: .402

Last 30 days vs LHB: 29 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 2.64 (2 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .138 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 29.7%, Sweeper 21.9%, Changeup 21.1%, Four-Seam 19.7%, Slider 7.4%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 7.5, Sweeper 32.6, Changeup 38.8, Four-Seam 29.8, Slider 13.3

Mix window for the read below: last 30 days (104 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 40% · Four-Seam 26% · Sweeper 16% · Changeup 15%

vs Seymour's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .161

Pooled on those pitches: .185

At-bats: 119 (22 hits)

HR: 1

Weighted xBA: .154

Pooled SLG: .244

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 84%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (40%)	.208	11 for 53	.181	.264	0	10%	210
Four-Seam (26%)	.143	6 for 42	.162	.238	1	19%	214
Sweeper (16%)	.227	5 for 22	.222	.227	0	18%	95
Changeup (15%)	.000	0 for 2	.000	.000	0	71%	18	THIN

History: vs Seymour: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Ian Seymour (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

4.8%5 BIP · 0 HR

8.7%7 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%11 BIP · 0 HR

9.6%12 BIP · 0 HR

5.8%19 BIP · 0 HR

3.9%12 BIP · 0 HR

7.7%17 BIP · 2 HR

2.9%7 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 104 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: last 30 days (6 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 56%

Batter sample: 95 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 118

Expected xSLG on his locations: .387

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.4

Overlap coverage: 56% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .513

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.126

Kevin Kelly (RHP) — SETUP — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: SETUP

Role basis: 34 holds, median entry 7.0 inning

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 72 games)

Usual innings (mean): 1.03 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 6, 9, 7, 7, 8

Games: 72 (starts 0)

Saves: 4

Holds: 34

Games finished: 14

Blown saves: 3

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 days: 1 appearances, 0.3 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 0.3, 0.3, 1.0, 0.3

Sample vs LHB: 123 BF (43.9% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 4

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.24

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.2 (98 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 57.1

K% vs LHB: 13.8

AVG against vs LHB: .243 (115 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .391

xSLG against vs LHB: .490

Last 30 days vs LHB: 8 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .125 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 50.6%, Changeup 35.3%, Four-Seam 10.7%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 51% · Changeup 35% · Four-Seam 11%

vs Kelly's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .329

Pooled on those pitches: .318

At-bats: 195 (62 hits)

HR: 12

Weighted xBA: .257

Pooled SLG: .595

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen
Sinker (51%)	.390	16 for 41	.287	.683	3	7%	147
Changeup (35%)	.244	10 for 41	.203	.463	2	34%	236
Four-Seam (11%)	.319	36 for 113	.290	.611	7	13%	446

History: vs Kelly: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Kevin Kelly (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

2.8%6 BIP · 0 HR

1.4%21 BIP · 2 HR

1.2%9 BIP · 0 HR

7.3%29 BIP · 1 HR

8.0%45 BIP · 5 HR

3.8%18 BIP · 3 HR

9.7%23 BIP · 0 HR

11.1%39 BIP · 1 HR

7.8%22 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 423 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 22 pitches, below 60) (66 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 212 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .488

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 4.8

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .575

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.087

Steven Matz (LHP) — LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN — usually 1.5 IP — enters ~7th — FRESH

Role: LONG RELIEF / SWINGMAN

Role basis: 11 starts among 36 appearances

Hand: LHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 11 starts)

Batters per start: 20 (~2.2 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 77 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Usual innings: 1.5 IP per outing (median of 36 games)

Usual innings (mean): 2.23 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 6 (median)

Enters: about the 7th inning (median 7.0)

Entry inning last 5: 8, 8, 7, 7, 4

Games: 36 (starts 11)

Saves: 1

Holds: 1

Games finished: 7

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 119 BF (34.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 3

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.96

Barrel% vs LHB: 4.3 (94 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 28.7

K% vs LHB: 15.1

AVG against vs LHB: .200 (110 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .327

xSLG against vs LHB: .342

Last 30 days vs LHB: 10 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .111 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 58.9%, Changeup 16.9%, Curve 12.6%, Slider 11.6%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Sinker 10.3, Changeup 32.7, Curve 9.1, Slider 21.9

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 27 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Sinker 59% · Changeup 17% · Curve 13% · Slider 12%

vs Matz's mix (reliever · 2026, vs LHP)

Weighted by his mix: .175

Pooled on those pitches: .222

At-bats: 90 (20 hits)

HR: 2

Weighted xBA: .126

Pooled SLG: .344

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 71%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Sinker (59%)	.208	11 for 53	.181	.264	0	10%	210
Changeup (17%)	.000	0 for 2	.000	.000	0	71%	18	THIN
Curve (13%)	.167	1 for 6	.022	.167	0	38%	29	THIN
Slider (12%)	.276	8 for 29	.142	.552	2	35%	133

History: vs Matz: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Steven Matz (LHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs LHP

3.1%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%5 BIP · 0 HR

4.8%7 BIP · 0 HR

7.8%11 BIP · 0 HR

10.7%12 BIP · 0 HR

6.9%19 BIP · 0 HR

10.2%12 BIP · 0 HR

9.0%17 BIP · 2 HR

3.6%7 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 421 pitches to LHB

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 27 pitches, below 60) (35 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 61%

Batter sample: 95 balls in play in zone vs LHP

Batter balls in play vs LHP, all locations: 118

Expected xSLG on his locations: .388

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 2.6

Overlap coverage: 61% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs LHP, all pitches: .512

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.124

Brody Hopkins (RHP) — MIDDLE RELIEF — usually 1.0 IP — enters ~6th — FRESH

Role: MIDDLE RELIEF

Role basis: 6 games, median 1.0 IP per outing, median entry 6.5 inning, 0 holds, 0 saves

Hand: RHP

Usual innings: 1.0 IP per outing (median of 6 games)

Usual innings (mean): 0.89 IP per outing

Batters per outing: 4 (median)

Enters: about the 6th inning (median 6.5)

Entry inning last 5: 7, 7, 6, 7, 5

Games: 6 (starts 0)

Saves: 0

Holds: 0

Games finished: 0

Blown saves: 1

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-09-26 (16 days ago)

Last 5 days: 0 appearances, 0 IP

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.3, 1.0

Sample vs LHB: 7 BF (29.2% of his batters) THIN

HR vs LHB: 0

HR/9 vs LHB: 0.00 THIN

Barrel% vs LHB: 0.0 (2 BBE) THIN

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 0.0 THIN

K% vs LHB: 28.6

AVG against vs LHB: .000 (4 AB) THIN

SLG against vs LHB: .000 THIN

xSLG against vs LHB: .142 THIN

Last 30 days vs LHB: 7 BF THIN

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR) THIN

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .000 THIN

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 52.9%, Curve 47.1%

Mix window for the read below: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 34 pitches to LHB)

His mix to LHB in that window: Four-Seam 53% · Curve 47%

vs Hopkins's mix (reliever · 2026, vs RHP)

Weighted by his mix: .340

Pooled on those pitches: .323

At-bats: 124 (40 hits)

HR: 7

Weighted xBA: .248

Pooled SLG: .589

Mix covered by 10+ AB pitches: 100%

Pitch (use)	AVG	H for AB	xBA	SLG	HR	Whiff	Seen	Note
Four-Seam (53%)	.319	36 for 113	.290	.611	7	13%	446
Curve (47%)	.364	4 for 11	.202	.364	0	30%	92

History: vs Hopkins: never faced him

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Brody Hopkins (RHP, pen arm) vs LHB — all pitches, over the batter's 2026 xSLG vs RHP

0.0%6 BIP · 0 HR

2.9%21 BIP · 2 HR

2.9%9 BIP · 0 HR

5.9%29 BIP · 1 HR

8.8%45 BIP · 5 HR

0.0%18 BIP · 3 HR

14.7%23 BIP · 0 HR

11.8%39 BIP · 1 HR

5.9%22 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher sample: 34 pitches to LHB — THIN

Pitcher window: 2026 season (last 30 days held only 34 pitches, below 60) (4 games)

Pitcher in-zone share: 53%

Batter sample: 212 balls in play in zone vs RHP

Batter balls in play vs RHP, all locations: 250

Expected xSLG on his locations: .456

Expected HR per 100 BIP on his locations: 3.8

Overlap coverage: 53% of his pitches land where the batter has 3+ BIP

Hot overlap zones: none

Cold overlap zones: none

League LHB xSLG on the same locations vs RHP, all pitches: .559

League reference: league 2026, LHB only

Batter minus league on his locations: −.103

THIN: pitcher location 34 pitches (< 60)

Griffin Jax (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.0 IP per start — enters ~6th — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 23 starts in 35 games, median 5.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.0 IP (median of 23 starts)

Batters per start: 18 (~2.0 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 67 (median)

Leaves after inning: 5.0 (median)

Games: 35 (starts 23)

Saves: 0

Holds: 3

Games finished: 1

Blown saves: 2

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0

Sample vs LHB: 284 BF (60.6% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 10

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.35

Barrel% vs LHB: 8.8 (181 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 39.8

K% vs LHB: 28.2

AVG against vs LHB: .240 (258 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .391

xSLG against vs LHB: .402

Last 30 days vs LHB: 30 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.00 (0 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .138

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 29.9%, Four-Seam 21.0%, Sweeper 16.6%, Sinker 15.6%, Curve 12.5%, Cutter 4.4%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 39.3, Four-Seam 26.5, Sweeper 28.2, Sinker 9.6, Curve 42.0, Cutter 16.7

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Freddy Peralta (RHP) — STARTER — usually 5.3 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 33 starts in 33 games, median 5.3 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 5.3 IP (median of 33 starts)

Batters per start: 22 (~2.4 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 93 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 33 (starts 33)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-05 (7 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.0, 5.0, 5.7, 5.3, 4.7

Sample vs LHB: 477 BF (63.8% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 18

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.44

Barrel% vs LHB: 6.9 (332 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 38.0

K% vs LHB: 21.6

AVG against vs LHB: .252 (432 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .440

xSLG against vs LHB: .382

Last 30 days vs LHB: 51 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.75 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .214

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 51.8%, Changeup 26.9%, Curve 16.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Four-Seam 19.7, Changeup 27.2, Curve 32.9

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

Nick Martinez (RHP) — STARTER — usually 6.0 IP per start — entry — — FRESH

Note: rotation arm on the roster — not counted in the pen totals

Role: STARTER

Role basis: 32 starts in 32 games, median 6.0 IP per start

Hand: RHP

Usual start: 6.0 IP (median of 32 starts)

Batters per start: 23 (~2.6 times through the order)

Pitches per start: 82 (median)

Leaves after inning: 6.0 (median)

Games: 32 (starts 32)

Availability: FRESH

Last appearance: 2026-10-07 (5 days ago)

Last 5 outings (IP, oldest first): 6.3, 5.0, 6.0, 2.7, 3.7

Sample vs LHB: 430 BF (58.3% of his batters)

HR vs LHB: 13

HR/9 vs LHB: 1.16

Barrel% vs LHB: 7.0 (344 BBE)

Hard-hit% vs LHB: 35.5

K% vs LHB: 15.8

AVG against vs LHB: .235 (409 AB)

SLG against vs LHB: .389

xSLG against vs LHB: .401

Last 30 days vs LHB: 40 BF

HR/9 last 30 days vs LHB: 0.96 (1 HR)

AVG against last 30 days vs LHB: .297

Mix vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 29.1%, Sinker 26.0%, Cutter 22.2%, Four-Seam 13.9%, Slider 4.4%, Curve 4.3%

Whiff% vs LHB (2026 season): Changeup 25.7, Sinker 6.4, Cutter 12.7, Four-Seam 13.7, Slider 24.2, Curve 18.8

Relief reads: not built for a rotation arm (his mix, BA vs mix, history and zone overlap appear on the day he is the probable starter)

Ballpark Pal matchup: not requested (outside the daily budget: top 25 model bats × up to 4 arms entering the 7th or later per pen)

HR per game (last 20 vs 0.5)

HR per game, last 20 — line 0.5 · L5 0/5 (0%) · L10 0/10 (0%) · L20 3/20 (15%)

MIN
9/11MIN
9/12MIN
9/13CWS
9/14CWS
9/15CWS
9/16ATH
9/18ATH
9/19ATH
9/20BOS
9/22BOS
9/23BOS
9/24KC
9/25KC
9/26KC
9/27CWS
10/3CWS
10/5CWS
10/7CWS
10/8CWS
10/10

Zone maps · spray · batted-ball log

Batter xSLG by zone vs RHP on CH/FC/FF/SI (188 BIP)

x0.5706 BIP · 0 HR

x0.56218 BIP · 2 HR

x0.3256 BIP · 0 HR

x0.58923 BIP · 1 HR

x0.67637 BIP · 4 HR

x0.74413 BIP · 2 HR

x0.43112 BIP · 0 HR

x0.39426 BIP · 1 HR

x0.38618 BIP · 1 HR

Pitcher location — where CH/FC/FF/SI land vs LHB (1626 pitches, 50% in zone)

4.9%

6.8%

6.0%

3.3%

8.4%

7.3%

2.4%

4.4%

6.1%

Spray, last 30d vs RHP on CH/FC/FF/SI: 24 BIP, 3 HR (red)

Last 12 balls in play on those pitches vs RHP

Date	Pitcher	Pitch	EV	LA	Dist	Result
10/8	Fedde	SI	75.4	9	99	field out
10/8	Fedde	SI	96.1	30	347	field out
10/5	Taylor	FF	99.3	36	374	field out
10/5	Burke	FF	102.3	43	328	field out
10/3	Taylor	FF	74.9	-42	3	field out
9/26	Cuas	FF	89.7	12	197	single
9/26	Wacha	CH	102.2	27	386	triple
9/26	Wacha	FF	103.1	20	332	double
9/25	Pearson	FF	82.3	60	182	field out
9/20	Medina	SI	86.8	24	279	field out
9/20	Perkins	CH	88.8	-15	7	grounded into double play
9/19	Roycroft	FC	97.5	-6	18	field out

The stars

The numbers

The tags

The Edge report

The quality stats — wOBA/xwOBA and SLG/xSLG

Ballpark Pal

The record

Edge Report Monday, October 12, 2026

Daily Selections Monday, October 12, 2026

Slips Monday, October 12, 2026

BATTER-FIRSTJackson Chourio (RHB, slot 1) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · model 17.5% LEAKY: Sinker

BATTER-FIRSTJake Bauers (LHB, slot 4) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · model 16.6%

BATTER-FIRSTGarrett Mitchell (LHB, slot 6) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · model 11.6%

BATTER-FIRSTBrice Turang (LHB, slot 2) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · model 11.0%

TARGETBATTER-FIRSTShohei Ohtani (LHB, slot 4) vs Logan Henderson · model 18.5% LEAKY: Changeup

TARGETBATTER-FIRSTMax Muncy (LHB, slot 6) vs Logan Henderson · model 17.4% LEAKY: Changeup

BATTER-FIRSTTeoscar Hernández (RHB, slot 3) vs Logan Henderson · model 13.7%

BATTER-FIRSTWill Smith (RHB, slot 5) vs Logan Henderson · model 13.4%

TARGETKyle Tucker (LHB, slot 8) vs Logan Henderson · model 9.5% LEAKY: Changeup

BATTER-FIRSTJunior Caminero (RHB, slot 3) vs Foster Griffin · model 15.3%

BATTER-FIRSTRyan Vilade (RHB, slot 4) vs Foster Griffin · model 11.9%

TARGETChase DeLauter (LHB, slot 3) vs Drew Rasmussen · model 12.2% LEAKY: Four-Seam

BATTER-FIRSTNathaniel Lowe (LHB, slot 5) vs Drew Rasmussen · model 12.1% LEAKY: Four-Seam

TARGETJosé Ramírez (LHB, slot 2) vs Drew Rasmussen · model 11.4% LEAKY: Four-Seam

TARGETBATTER-FIRSTPatrick Bailey (LHB, slot 7) vs Drew Rasmussen · model 9.2% LEAKY: Four-Seam

TARGETTravis Bazzana (LHB, slot 6) vs Drew Rasmussen · model 8.7% LEAKY: Four-Seam

New Edge Monday, October 12, 2026