2026-06-27 · 15 games · tap a row for the full breakdown
15 games · ranked by HR conditions (park × wind × temp). Green = boost, red = suppressed. Tap a game for weather, time, stadium + top plays.
NYY @ BOSHR boost
Fenway Park
1:10p Scheduledwind 10 mph Out To LF
72°
First pitch & venue
NYY @ BOS
Fenway Park · 1:10p Scheduled
Weather
Sunny · 72°F · wind wind 10 mph Out To LF
HR conditions ×1.09 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
1.03
WindOut To LF
1.06
Temperature72°F
1.00
Top HR plays in this gameWillson Contreras BOS27%Ben Rice NYY27%Wilyer Abreu BOS23%Paul Goldschmidt NYY22%Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY15%
SP: Gerrit Cole (R) vs Jake Bennett (L)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
NYY lineup · vs Jake Bennett (LHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Jake Bennett • LHP (BOS)
NYY @ BOS | vs NYY
1/3 W–L • 3.71 ERA • 22 Ks • 1.13 WHIP
0.6 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 17% FB • 22% K • 3.71 ERA (H 4.02 / A 3.27)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.72
hittability
Pitcher summary
Jake Bennett carries a 0.64 HR/9.
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/22 6.0 IP · 72 P0 HR
06/17 5.1 IP · 79 P0 HR
06/10 5.0 IP · 73 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
11%
Fly ballsballs in the air
17%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
37%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.464
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
22%
ParkBOS
1.03
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 0 HR in 26 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
20%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
34%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.491
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
23%
ParkBOS
1.03
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 86 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
20%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
41%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.501
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
21%
ParkBOS
1.03
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam34% used · 147 pit
1 HR
stuff
14%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
38%
spin 10:00
sinker25% used · 109 pit
0 HR
stuff
17%
swing & miss
5%
contact
95%
fly ball
14%
ground ball
72%
spin 10:01
change24% used · 104 pit
0 HR
stuff
17%
swing & miss
35%
contact
65%
fly ball
11%
ground ball
58%
spin 9:29
curve7% used · 32 pit
0 HR
stuff
3%
swing & miss
6%
contact
94%
fly ball
20%
ground ball
60%
spin 4:53
cutter5% used · 23 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
25%
contact
75%
spin 8:50
4-seam34% used · 21 pit
0 HR
stuff
14%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
38%
spin 10:00
sinker25% used · 45 pit
0 HR
stuff
17%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
14%
ground ball
72%
spin 10:01
change24% used · 17 pit
0 HR
stuff
17%
swing & miss
25%
contact
75%
fly ball
11%
ground ball
58%
spin 9:29
curve7% used · 7 pit
0 HR
stuff
3%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
20%
ground ball
60%
spin 4:53
cutter5% used · 4 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
100%
contact
0%
spin 8:50
4-seam34% used · 126 pit
1 HR
stuff
14%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
38%
spin 10:00
sinker25% used · 64 pit
0 HR
stuff
17%
swing & miss
9%
contact
91%
fly ball
14%
ground ball
72%
spin 10:01
change24% used · 87 pit
0 HR
stuff
17%
swing & miss
37%
contact
63%
fly ball
11%
ground ball
58%
spin 9:29
curve7% used · 25 pit
0 HR
stuff
3%
swing & miss
8%
contact
92%
fly ball
20%
ground ball
60%
spin 4:53
cutter5% used · 19 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
spin 8:50
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 44% here · tap to split by cell
.215
middle — over the heartworks 28% here · tap to split by cell
.192
downworks 28% here · tap to split by cell
.388
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home0.57115%4.02
Away0.00030%3.27
vs LHB0.91013%20%23%
vs RHB0.81112%20%21%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Paul Goldschmidt R22%2 Ben Rice L27%3 Cody Bellinger L11%4 Jasson Domínguez S9%5 José Caballero R5%6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. L15%7 Anthony Volpe R6%8 Spencer Jones L12%9 Austin Wells L10%
BOS lineup · vs Gerrit Cole (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Gerrit Cole • RHP (NYY)prime target
NYY @ BOS | vs BOS
2/2 W–L • 3.62 ERA • 29 Ks • 1.18 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 24% FB • 22% K • 3.62 ERA (H 3.12 / A 4.20)
▬ Holding steady
1.13
hittability
Pitcher summary
Gerrit Cole carries a 1.51 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out (2 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 3 to LHB (1.6/9), 2 to RHB (0.9/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/22 4.1 IP · 89 P1 HR
06/16 6.0 IP · 90 P1 HR
06/09 4.0 IP · 83 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscurve · change
Most likely to capitalize: Abreu 23%, Gasper 10%, Duran 4%
vs righty batsslider
Most likely to capitalize: Contreras 27%, Wong 9%, Rafaela 7%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
15%
Fly ballsballs in the air
24%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
37%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.492
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
22%
ParkBOS
1.03
vs LHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 4 HR in 97 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
39%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.489
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
24%
ParkBOS
1.03
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 2 HR in 42 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
18%
Fly ballsballs in the air
22%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
37%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.543
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
20%
ParkBOS
1.03
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam46% used · 224 pit
1 HR
stuff
82%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
22%
spin 1:14
slider18% used · 89 pit
1 HR
stuff
75%
swing & miss
35%
contact
65%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
44%
spin 11:01
change14% used · 68 pit
1 HR
stuff
71%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
50%
spin 1:55
curve14% used · 68 pit
1 HR
stuff
93%
swing & miss
9%
contact
91%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
50%
spin 7:22
sinker8% used · 37 pit
1 HR
stuff
84%
swing & miss
6%
contact
94%
fly ball
33%
ground ball
11%
spin 1:23
4-seam46% used · 166 pit
1 HR
stuff
82%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
22%
spin 1:14
slider18% used · 44 pit
0 HR
stuff
75%
swing & miss
42%
contact
58%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
44%
spin 11:01
change14% used · 66 pit
1 HR
stuff
71%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
50%
spin 1:55
curve14% used · 56 pit
1 HR
stuff
93%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
50%
spin 7:22
sinker8% used · 22 pit
0 HR
stuff
84%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
33%
ground ball
11%
spin 1:23
4-seam46% used · 58 pit
0 HR
stuff
82%
swing & miss
7%
contact
93%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
22%
spin 1:14
slider18% used · 45 pit
1 HR
stuff
75%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
44%
spin 11:01
change14% used · 2 pit
0 HR
stuff
71%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
50%
spin 1:55
curve14% used · 12 pit
0 HR
stuff
93%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
50%
spin 7:22
sinker8% used · 15 pit
1 HR
stuff
84%
swing & miss
14%
contact
86%
fly ball
33%
ground ball
11%
spin 1:23
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home2.08415%3.12
Away0.60128%4.20
vs LHB1.40412%25%24%
vs RHB1.41218%22%20%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Mickey Gasper S10%2 Ceddanne Rafaela R7%3 Wilyer Abreu L23%4 Willson Contreras R27%5 Jarren Duran L4%6 Caleb Durbin R6%7 Anthony Seigler S8 Connor Wong R9%9 Tsung-Che Cheng L
HOU @ DETneutral
Comerica Park
1:10p Scheduledwind 7 mph Out To LF
78°
First pitch & venue
HOU @ DET
Comerica Park · 1:10p Scheduled
Weather
Sunny · 78°F · wind wind 7 mph Out To LF
HR conditions ×0.97 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
0.92
WindOut To LF
1.04
Temperature78°F
1.01
Top HR plays in this gameDillon Dingler DET25%Cam Smith HOU24%Riley Greene DET24%Christian Walker HOU21%Spencer Torkelson DET20%
SP: Kai-Wei Teng (R) vs Framber Valdez (L)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
HOU lineup · vs Framber Valdez (LHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Framber Valdez • LHP (DET)
HOU @ DET | vs HOU
4/5 W–L (Tied–82nd) • 3.91 ERA (38th) • 75 Ks (Tied–57th) • 1.33 WHIP (50th)
0.9 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.91 ERA (H 4.38 / A 3.59)
▬ Holding steady
0.66
hittability
Pitcher summary
Framber Valdez carries a 0.86 HR/9 and gave up 0 last time out (2 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 2 to LHB (0.8/9), 7 to RHB (0.9/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/22 6.0 IP · 94 P0 HR
06/16 6.0 IP · 92 P0 HR
06/10 5.0 IP · 75 P2 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscurve
Most likely to capitalize: Loperfido 6%, Trammell 5%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Smith 24%, Walker 21%, Peña 18%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
11%
Fly ballsballs in the air
22%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
43%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.519
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
19%
ParkDET
0.92
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 2 HR in 105 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
22%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
38%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.504
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
27%
ParkDET
0.92
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 7 HR in 319 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
11%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
44%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.533
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
16%
ParkDET
0.92
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
sinker45% used · 700 pit
4 HR
stuff
28%
swing & miss
11%
contact
89%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
52%
spin 10:37
curve28% used · 436 pit
3 HR
stuff
77%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
28%
ground ball
48%
spin 4:34
change21% used · 318 pit
2 HR
stuff
54%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
58%
spin 10:12
sinker45% used · 220 pit
0 HR
stuff
28%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
52%
spin 10:37
curve28% used · 81 pit
2 HR
stuff
77%
swing & miss
44%
contact
56%
fly ball
28%
ground ball
48%
spin 4:34
change21% used · 26 pit
0 HR
stuff
54%
swing & miss
21%
contact
79%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
58%
spin 10:12
sinker45% used · 480 pit
4 HR
stuff
28%
swing & miss
8%
contact
92%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
52%
spin 10:37
curve28% used · 355 pit
1 HR
stuff
77%
swing & miss
26%
contact
74%
fly ball
28%
ground ball
48%
spin 4:34
change21% used · 292 pit
2 HR
stuff
54%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
58%
spin 10:12
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 26% here · tap to split by cell
.525
up / out
.583
Sinker 51%
.895
contact
75%
Curve 24%
.359
contact
67%
Change 22%
.249
contact
81%
up / mid
.646
Sinker 78%
.667
contact
88%
Change 9%
.844
contact
89%
up / in
.290
Sinker 87%
.308
contact
91%
middle — over the heartworks 20% here · tap to split by cell
.580
middle / out
.545
Sinker 44%
.520
contact
93%
Curve 29%
.423
contact
93%
Change 25%
.730
contact
83%
middle / mid
.621
Sinker 62%
.600
contact
97%
Curve 19%
.506
contact
83%
Change 16%
.572
contact
92%
middle / in
.536
Sinker 78%
.538
contact
98%
Curve 14%
.385
contact
94%
downworks 54% here · tap to split by cell
.474
down / out
.369
Change 40%
.284
contact
71%
Sinker 30%
.396
contact
94%
Curve 29%
.402
contact
64%
down / mid
.512
Curve 35%
.513
contact
66%
Change 33%
.393
contact
70%
Sinker 31%
.588
contact
91%
down / in
.561
Curve 52%
.630
contact
50%
Sinker 31%
.575
contact
92%
Change 15%
.279
contact
66%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home1.22516%4.38
Away0.68421%3.59
vs LHB0.93213%22%27%
vs RHB0.91711%23%16%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Jeremy Peña R18%2 Jake Meyers R5%3 Raynel Delgado L4 Christian Walker R21%5 Brice Matthews R8%6 Joey Loperfido L6%7 Yainer Diaz R8%8 Cam Smith R24%9 Taylor Trammell L5%
DET lineup · vs Kai-Wei Teng (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Kai-Wei Teng • RHP (HOU)
HOU @ DET | vs DET
4/6 W–L (Tied–82nd) • 4.03 ERA • 62 Ks (Tied–93rd) • 1.29 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 22% FB • 22% K • 4.03 ERA (H 4.08 / A 3.96)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.75
hittability
Pitcher summary
Kai-Wei Teng carries a 1.45 HR/9 and gave up 0 last time out (3 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 8 to LHB (2.1/9), 3 to RHB (0.6/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/21 6.0 IP · 83 P0 HR
06/15 3.1 IP · 81 P3 HR
06/09 4.0 IP · 93 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssinker · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Greene 24%, Keith 14%, Outman 7%
vs righty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Dingler 25%, Torkelson 20%, Lee 11%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
22%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
40%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.530
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
22%
ParkDET
0.92
vs LHB · 1.7 HR/9 · 8 HR in 157 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
14%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
41%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.570
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
21%
ParkDET
0.92
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 3 HR in 121 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
20%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
40%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.491
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
24%
ParkDET
0.92
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
sweeper34% used · 376 pit
5 HR
stuff
72%
swing & miss
32%
contact
68%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
47%
spin 7:54
4-seam28% used · 303 pit
4 HR
stuff
43%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
37%
ground ball
46%
spin 1:44
sinker16% used · 170 pit
1 HR
stuff
52%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
47%
spin 1:45
change11% used · 117 pit
1 HR
stuff
58%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
8%
ground ball
56%
spin 2:04
curve10% used · 109 pit
0 HR
stuff
86%
swing & miss
41%
contact
59%
fly ball
0%
ground ball
50%
spin 7:22
sweeper34% used · 165 pit
2 HR
stuff
72%
swing & miss
30%
contact
70%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
47%
spin 7:54
4-seam28% used · 190 pit
4 HR
stuff
43%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
37%
ground ball
46%
spin 1:44
sinker16% used · 45 pit
1 HR
stuff
52%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
47%
spin 1:45
change11% used · 108 pit
1 HR
stuff
58%
swing & miss
22%
contact
78%
fly ball
8%
ground ball
56%
spin 2:04
curve10% used · 90 pit
0 HR
stuff
86%
swing & miss
43%
contact
57%
fly ball
0%
ground ball
50%
spin 7:22
sweeper34% used · 211 pit
3 HR
stuff
72%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
47%
spin 7:54
4-seam28% used · 113 pit
0 HR
stuff
43%
swing & miss
21%
contact
79%
fly ball
37%
ground ball
46%
spin 1:44
sinker16% used · 125 pit
0 HR
stuff
52%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
47%
spin 1:45
change11% used · 9 pit
0 HR
stuff
58%
swing & miss
50%
contact
50%
fly ball
8%
ground ball
56%
spin 2:04
curve10% used · 19 pit
0 HR
stuff
86%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
0%
ground ball
50%
spin 7:22
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 29% here · tap to split by cell
.593
up / mid
1.197
Sweeper 34%
.127
contact
67%
middle — over the heartworks 26% here · tap to split by cell
.498
middle / out
.378
Sweeper 49%
.178
contact
82%
middle / mid
.576
Sweeper 43%
.744
contact
100%
Sinker 29%
.367
contact
100%
4-Seam 20%
.308
contact
88%
middle / in
.349
Sweeper 33%
.349
contact
86%
downworks 45% here · tap to split by cell
.193
down / out
.446
Sweeper 59%
.385
contact
28%
4-Seam 15%
.458
contact
80%
down / mid
.418
Curve 9%
.251
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home2.04825%4.08
Away0.36123%3.96
vs LHB1.69814%25%21%
vs RHB1.05312%20%24%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Hao-Yu Lee R11%2 Dillon Dingler R25%3 Ben Malgeri R4 Riley Greene L24%5 Spencer Torkelson R20%6 Colt Keith L14%7 Zach McKinstry L3%8 Matt Vierling R6%9 James Outman L7%
TEX @ TORfavorable
Rogers Centre
3:07p Scheduledwind 6 mph Out To LF
77°
First pitch & venue
TEX @ TOR
Rogers Centre · 3:07p Scheduled
Weather
Sunny · 77°F · wind wind 6 mph Out To LF
HR conditions ×1.07 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
1.02
WindOut To LF
1.04
Temperature77°F
1.01
Top HR plays in this gameKazuma Okamoto TOR28%George Springer TOR26%Daulton Varsho TOR25%Brandon Valenzuela TOR25%Jake Burger TEX20%
SP: Cal Quantrill (R) vs Dylan Cease (R)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
TEX lineup · vs Dylan Cease (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Dylan Cease • RHP (TOR)
TEX @ TOR | vs TEX
4/3 W–L (Tied–82nd) • 2.75 ERA • 118 Ks (Tied–3rd) • 1.19 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 22% FB • 34% K • 2.75 ERA (H 2.33 / A 3.34)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.65
hittability
Pitcher summary
Dylan Cease carries a 0.65 HR/9. HRs allowed: 4 to LHB (0.8/9), 1 to RHB (0.2/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/22 5.2 IP · 110 P0 HR
06/16 5.0 IP · 108 P0 HR
06/09 6.0 IP · 93 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
22%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
35%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.515
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
34%
ParkTOR
1.02
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 4 HR in 189 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
14%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
38%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.539
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
32%
ParkTOR
1.02
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 1 HR in 154 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
21%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
35%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.504
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
33%
ParkTOR
1.02
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam35% used · 515 pit
4 HR
stuff
93%
swing & miss
25%
contact
75%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
33%
spin 12:33
slider30% used · 437 pit
1 HR
stuff
67%
swing & miss
42%
contact
58%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
45%
spin 10:09
change11% used · 160 pit
0 HR
stuff
69%
swing & miss
64%
contact
36%
fly ball
0%
ground ball
36%
spin 12:26
sinker10% used · 145 pit
0 HR
stuff
82%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
65%
spin 12:24
curve10% used · 140 pit
0 HR
stuff
69%
swing & miss
35%
contact
65%
fly ball
14%
ground ball
57%
spin 6:47
sweeper5% used · 74 pit
0 HR
stuff
71%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
67%
spin 7:07
4-seam35% used · 313 pit
3 HR
stuff
93%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
33%
spin 12:33
slider30% used · 195 pit
1 HR
stuff
67%
swing & miss
43%
contact
57%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
45%
spin 10:09
change11% used · 152 pit
0 HR
stuff
69%
swing & miss
64%
contact
36%
fly ball
0%
ground ball
36%
spin 12:26
sinker10% used · 55 pit
0 HR
stuff
82%
swing & miss
11%
contact
89%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
65%
spin 12:24
curve10% used · 107 pit
0 HR
stuff
69%
swing & miss
38%
contact
62%
fly ball
14%
ground ball
57%
spin 6:47
sweeper5% used · 12 pit
0 HR
stuff
71%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
67%
spin 7:07
4-seam35% used · 202 pit
1 HR
stuff
93%
swing & miss
36%
contact
64%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
33%
spin 12:33
slider30% used · 242 pit
0 HR
stuff
67%
swing & miss
41%
contact
59%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
45%
spin 10:09
change11% used · 8 pit
0 HR
stuff
69%
fly ball
0%
ground ball
36%
spin 12:26
sinker10% used · 90 pit
0 HR
stuff
82%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
65%
spin 12:24
curve10% used · 33 pit
0 HR
stuff
69%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
14%
ground ball
57%
spin 6:47
sweeper5% used · 62 pit
0 HR
stuff
71%
swing & miss
32%
contact
68%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
67%
spin 7:07
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 26% here · tap to split by cell
.431
up / out
.487
4-Seam 73%
.571
contact
75%
Slider 21%
.205
contact
87%
up / mid
.620
4-Seam 64%
.559
contact
84%
Sinker 9%
.123
contact
100%
up / in
.578
4-Seam 56%
.854
contact
56%
Sinker 28%
.377
contact
87%
middle — over the heartworks 21% here · tap to split by cell
.468
middle / out
.449
4-Seam 49%
.559
contact
61%
Slider 40%
.418
contact
71%
Sweeper 8%
.201
contact
89%
middle / mid
.477
4-Seam 44%
.501
contact
76%
Slider 39%
.399
contact
81%
Sinker 9%
.701
contact
88%
middle / in
.524
Sinker 38%
.450
contact
93%
Slider 29%
.517
contact
84%
4-Seam 24%
.666
contact
83%
downworks 52% here · tap to split by cell
.466
down / out
.515
Slider 70%
.405
contact
42%
4-Seam 15%
1.168
contact
64%
Sweeper 10%
.435
contact
57%
down / mid
.586
Slider 54%
.664
contact
62%
4-Seam 14%
.180
contact
100%
Sweeper 13%
.423
contact
83%
Sinker 9%
.373
contact
100%
down / in
.415
4-Seam 28%
.433
contact
89%
Slider 20%
.194
contact
62%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home0.39238%2.33
Away0.84334%3.34
vs LHB0.92414%23%32%
vs RHB0.57112%21%33%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Wyatt Langford R14%2 Josh Jung R13%3 Jarred Kelenic L13%4 Jake Burger R20%5 Justin Foscue R13%6 Ezequiel Duran R4%7 Elias Díaz R8%8 Alejandro Osuna L3%9 Nicky Lopez L3%
TOR lineup · vs Cal Quantrill (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Cal Quantrill • RHP (TEX)prime target
TEX @ TOR | vs TOR
3/0 W–L • 3.73 ERA • 20 Ks • 1.28 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 23% FB • 16% K • 3.73 ERA (H 5.02 / A 2.65)
▬ Holding steady
1.20
hittability
Pitcher summary
Cal Quantrill carries a 1.24 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out (2 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 1 to LHB (0.6/9), 3 to RHB (1.7/9).
Last 3 outings · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/23 2.0 IP · 34 P1 HR
06/18 2.0 IP · 36 P relief1 HR
06/16 0.2 IP · 20 P relief0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Varsho 25%, Valenzuela 25%, Giménez 7%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Okamoto 28%, Springer 26%, Jr. 20%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
39%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.563
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
16%
ParkTOR
1.02
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 1 HR in 77 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
15%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
43%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.573
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
21%
ParkTOR
1.02
vs RHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 4 HR in 74 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
21%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
36%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.540
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
14%
ParkTOR
1.02
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
cutter33% used · 185 pit
2 HR
stuff
18%
swing & miss
14%
contact
86%
fly ball
29%
ground ball
21%
spin 12:05
sinker29% used · 166 pit
0 HR
stuff
59%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
11%
ground ball
50%
spin 1:23
split18% used · 99 pit
1 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
12%
ground ball
47%
spin 1:59
4-seam15% used · 82 pit
1 HR
stuff
39%
swing & miss
11%
contact
89%
fly ball
36%
ground ball
50%
spin 1:14
curve6% used · 32 pit
0 HR
stuff
6%
swing & miss
9%
contact
91%
fly ball
50%
ground ball
12%
spin 7:29
cutter33% used · 99 pit
0 HR
stuff
18%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
29%
ground ball
21%
spin 12:05
sinker29% used · 70 pit
0 HR
stuff
59%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
11%
ground ball
50%
spin 1:23
split18% used · 77 pit
0 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
12%
ground ball
47%
spin 1:59
4-seam15% used · 56 pit
1 HR
stuff
39%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
36%
ground ball
50%
spin 1:14
curve6% used · 18 pit
0 HR
stuff
6%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
50%
ground ball
12%
spin 7:29
cutter33% used · 86 pit
2 HR
stuff
18%
swing & miss
6%
contact
94%
fly ball
29%
ground ball
21%
spin 12:05
sinker29% used · 96 pit
0 HR
stuff
59%
swing & miss
14%
contact
86%
fly ball
11%
ground ball
50%
spin 1:23
split18% used · 22 pit
1 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
12%
ground ball
47%
spin 1:59
4-seam15% used · 26 pit
0 HR
stuff
39%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
36%
ground ball
50%
spin 1:14
curve6% used · 14 pit
0 HR
stuff
6%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
50%
ground ball
12%
spin 7:29
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 37% here · tap to split by cell
.252
up / out
1.120
Cutter 36%
1.299
contact
91%
up / mid
.409
4-Seam 37%
.655
contact
68%
Cutter 27%
.595
contact
86%
Sinker 20%
.233
contact
85%
up / in
.384
Sinker 36%
.227
contact
76%
4-Seam 24%
.017
contact
74%
Splitter 15%
.324
contact
92%
Cutter 14%
1.336
contact
83%
Slider 7%
.904
contact
100%
middle — over the heartworks 23% here · tap to split by cell
.260
middle / out
.763
Cutter 31%
.504
contact
100%
4-Seam 17%
1.001
contact
100%
Splitter 5%
1.629
middle / mid
.610
Sinker 33%
.648
contact
94%
Cutter 19%
.538
contact
92%
4-Seam 16%
.584
contact
100%
Slider 13%
1.314
contact
100%
Curve 11%
.381
contact
100%
Splitter 8%
.268
contact
86%
middle / in
.651
Sinker 52%
.539
contact
96%
Splitter 21%
.845
contact
95%
Cutter 8%
.509
contact
100%
Slider 6%
.678
contact
100%
downworks 38% here · tap to split by cell
.640
down / out
.383
Slider 29%
.394
contact
62%
Cutter 25%
.526
contact
79%
Curve 22%
.347
contact
64%
Splitter 10%
.250
contact
71%
down / mid
.636
Curve 23%
.405
contact
77%
Splitter 21%
.668
contact
71%
Sinker 19%
.307
contact
100%
Slider 18%
1.107
contact
73%
Cutter 12%
.419
contact
82%
down / in
.761
Sinker 41%
.659
contact
88%
Splitter 30%
.641
contact
63%
Curve 10%
1.100
contact
88%
Slider 10%
1.333
contact
82%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home1.26214%5.02
Away1.06216%2.65
vs LHB0.86115%25%21%
vs RHB1.61412%21%14%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 George Springer R26%2 Myles Straw R17%3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R20%4 Kazuma Okamoto R28%5 Daulton Varsho L25%6 Ernie Clement R10%7 Luis Urías R8 Brandon Valenzuela S25%9 Andrés Giménez L7%
CIN @ PITsuppressed
PNC Park
4:05p Scheduled6 mph Cross L-R
76°
First pitch & venue
CIN @ PIT
PNC Park · 4:05p Scheduled
Weather
Cloudy · 76°F · wind 6 mph Cross L-R
HR conditions ×0.91 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
0.90
WindCross L-R
1.00
Temperature76°F
1.01
Top HR plays in this gameBrandon Lowe PIT25%JJ Bleday CIN22%Elly De La Cruz CIN21%Bryan Reynolds PIT16%Sal Stewart CIN15%
SP: Chase Burns (R) vs Jared Jones (R)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
CIN lineup · vs Jared Jones (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Jared Jones R
CIN @ PIT | vs CIN · no data
1 Dane Myers R9%2 Elly De La Cruz S21%3 JJ Bleday L22%4 Sal Stewart R15%5 Noelvi Marte R7%6 Eugenio Suárez R14%7 Spencer Steer R11%8 Tyler Stephenson R12%9 Matt McLain R6%
PIT lineup · vs Chase Burns (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Chase Burns • RHP (CIN)
CIN @ PIT | vs PIT
9/1 W–L (Tied–2nd) • 2.00 ERA (3rd) • 102 Ks (Tied–13th) • 1.05 WHIP (14th)
1.2 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 23% FB • 29% K • 2.00 ERA (H 1.99 / A 2.01)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.73
hittability
Pitcher summary
Chase Burns carries a 1.25 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out. HRs allowed: 10 to LHB (1.5/9), 3 to RHB (0.5/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/21 5.0 IP · 96 P1 HR
06/15 5.0 IP · 100 P0 HR
06/09 5.1 IP · 105 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Lowe 25%, Reynolds 16%, O'Hearn 13%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Ozuna 11%, Griffin 5%, Cook 5%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
38%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.511
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
29%
ParkPIT
0.90
vs LHB · 1.5 HR/9 · 10 HR in 233 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
24%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
35%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.504
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
31%
ParkPIT
0.90
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 3 HR in 161 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
43%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.534
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
25%
ParkPIT
0.90
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam56% used · 896 pit
8 HR
stuff
96%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
30%
spin 12:37
slider36% used · 580 pit
3 HR
stuff
73%
swing & miss
50%
contact
50%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
49%
spin 10:11
change7% used · 111 pit
2 HR
stuff
93%
swing & miss
26%
contact
74%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
42%
spin 1:30
4-seam56% used · 565 pit
6 HR
stuff
96%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
30%
spin 12:37
slider36% used · 290 pit
2 HR
stuff
73%
swing & miss
50%
contact
50%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
49%
spin 10:11
change7% used · 109 pit
2 HR
stuff
93%
swing & miss
26%
contact
74%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
42%
spin 1:30
4-seam56% used · 331 pit
2 HR
stuff
96%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
30%
spin 12:37
slider36% used · 290 pit
1 HR
stuff
73%
swing & miss
50%
contact
50%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
49%
spin 10:11
change7% used · 2 pit
0 HR
stuff
93%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
42%
spin 1:30
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home0.99526%1.99
Away1.12535%2.01
vs LHB1.521013%24%31%
vs RHB0.87313%23%25%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Konnor Griffin R5%2 Brandon Lowe L25%3 Bryan Reynolds S16%4 Marcell Ozuna R11%5 Ryan O'Hearn L13%6 Billy Cook R5%7 Nick Gonzales R4%8 Jake Mangum S4%9 Endy Rodríguez S12%
KC @ CWSfavorable
Rate Field
4:10p Scheduled11 mph Cross R-L
66°
First pitch & venue
KC @ CWS
Rate Field · 4:10p Scheduled
Weather
Cloudy · 66°F · wind 11 mph Cross R-L
HR conditions ×1.07 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
1.08
WindCross R-L
1.00
Temperature66°F
0.99
Top HR plays in this gameTrevor Richards CWS27%Jac Caglianone KC26%Carter Jensen KC23%Bobby Witt Jr. KC21%Luisangel Acuña CWS17%
SP: Michael Wacha (R) vs Davis Martin (R)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
KC lineup · vs Davis Martin (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Davis Martin • RHP (CWS)
KC @ CWS | vs KC
9/3 W–L (Tied–2nd) • 3.18 ERA (20th) • 87 Ks (Tied–32nd) • 1.20 WHIP (36th)
0.8 HR/9 • 14% Barrel • 20% FB • 24% K • 3.18 ERA (H 1.01 / A 4.67)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.85
hittability
Pitcher summary
Davis Martin carries a 0.76 HR/9 and gave up 0 last time out (3 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 3 to LHB (0.7/9), 3 to RHB (0.5/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/21 6.0 IP · 77 P0 HR
06/16 3.1 IP · 88 P3 HR
06/10 6.0 IP · 100 P0 HR
Not enough data for this view.
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
14%
Fly ballsballs in the air
20%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
46%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.526
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
24%
ParkCWS
1.08
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 4 HR in 224 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
14%
Fly ballsballs in the air
21%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
46%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.549
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
23%
ParkCWS
1.08
vs RHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 3 HR in 163 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
14%
Fly ballsballs in the air
20%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
42%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.503
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
24%
ParkCWS
1.08
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam27% used · 387 pit
1 HR
stuff
29%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
38%
spin 1:12
sinker17% used · 250 pit
1 HR
stuff
40%
swing & miss
8%
contact
92%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
53%
spin 1:13
slider15% used · 220 pit
1 HR
stuff
53%
swing & miss
40%
contact
60%
fly ball
18%
ground ball
41%
spin 9:37
change15% used · 210 pit
1 HR
stuff
78%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
7%
ground ball
61%
spin 1:57
cutter14% used · 199 pit
1 HR
stuff
51%
swing & miss
31%
contact
69%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
45%
spin 12:15
curve12% used · 179 pit
1 HR
stuff
79%
swing & miss
46%
contact
54%
fly ball
47%
ground ball
33%
spin 7:48
4-seam27% used · 252 pit
0 HR
stuff
29%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
38%
spin 1:12
sinker17% used · 114 pit
0 HR
stuff
40%
swing & miss
7%
contact
93%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
53%
spin 1:13
slider15% used · 44 pit
0 HR
stuff
53%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
18%
ground ball
41%
spin 9:37
change15% used · 168 pit
1 HR
stuff
78%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
7%
ground ball
61%
spin 1:57
cutter14% used · 149 pit
1 HR
stuff
51%
swing & miss
25%
contact
75%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
45%
spin 12:15
curve12% used · 141 pit
1 HR
stuff
79%
swing & miss
45%
contact
55%
fly ball
47%
ground ball
33%
spin 7:48
4-seam27% used · 135 pit
1 HR
stuff
29%
swing & miss
40%
contact
60%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
38%
spin 1:12
sinker17% used · 136 pit
1 HR
stuff
40%
swing & miss
9%
contact
91%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
53%
spin 1:13
slider15% used · 176 pit
1 HR
stuff
53%
swing & miss
43%
contact
57%
fly ball
18%
ground ball
41%
spin 9:37
change15% used · 42 pit
0 HR
stuff
78%
swing & miss
10%
contact
90%
fly ball
7%
ground ball
61%
spin 1:57
cutter14% used · 50 pit
0 HR
stuff
51%
swing & miss
46%
contact
54%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
45%
spin 12:15
curve12% used · 38 pit
0 HR
stuff
79%
swing & miss
50%
contact
50%
fly ball
47%
ground ball
33%
spin 7:48
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home0.25128%1.01
Away0.87522%4.67
vs LHB0.82414%21%23%
vs RHB0.87314%20%24%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Carter Jensen L23%2 Bobby Witt Jr. R21%3 Jac Caglianone L26%4 Lane Thomas R6%5 Michael Massey L11%6 Salvador Perez R15%7 Josh Rojas L8 Nick Loftin R4%9 Isaac Collins S6%
CWS lineup · vs Michael Wacha (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Michael Wacha • RHP (KC)
KC @ CWS | vs CWS
5/5 W–L (Tied–51st) • 3.48 ERA (26th) • 77 Ks (Tied–53rd) • 1.16 WHIP (30th)
1.0 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 22% FB • 20% K • 3.48 ERA (H 2.85 / A 4.02)
▬ Holding steady
1.02
hittability
Pitcher summary
Michael Wacha carries a 1.00 HR/9 and gave up 0 last time out (1 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 7 to LHB (1.0/9), 5 to RHB (0.8/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/22 7.0 IP · 99 P0 HR
06/16 6.0 IP · 90 P0 HR
06/11 7.0 IP · 102 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Antonacci 11%, Peters 6%
vs righty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Richards 27%, Acuña 17%, Meidroth 5%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
11%
Fly ballsballs in the air
22%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
37%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.507
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
20%
ParkCWS
1.08
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 7 HR in 259 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
36%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.519
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
22%
ParkCWS
1.08
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 5 HR in 207 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
11%
Fly ballsballs in the air
20%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
39%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.509
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
17%
ParkCWS
1.08
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam28% used · 467 pit
3 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
28%
spin 12:45
change22% used · 374 pit
5 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
42%
spin 2:03
sinker16% used · 263 pit
1 HR
stuff
57%
swing & miss
11%
contact
89%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
55%
spin 12:54
cutter15% used · 251 pit
2 HR
stuff
50%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
47%
spin 12:23
slider10% used · 169 pit
1 HR
stuff
8%
swing & miss
25%
contact
75%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
44%
spin 11:25
curve10% used · 167 pit
0 HR
stuff
18%
swing & miss
26%
contact
74%
fly ball
18%
ground ball
65%
spin 6:57
4-seam28% used · 309 pit
2 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
28%
spin 12:45
change22% used · 291 pit
3 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
35%
contact
65%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
42%
spin 2:03
sinker16% used · 62 pit
0 HR
stuff
57%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
55%
spin 12:54
cutter15% used · 149 pit
1 HR
stuff
50%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
47%
spin 12:23
slider10% used · 15 pit
1 HR
stuff
8%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
44%
spin 11:25
curve10% used · 102 pit
0 HR
stuff
18%
swing & miss
21%
contact
79%
fly ball
18%
ground ball
65%
spin 6:57
4-seam28% used · 158 pit
1 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
21%
contact
79%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
28%
spin 12:45
change22% used · 83 pit
2 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
42%
spin 2:03
sinker16% used · 201 pit
1 HR
stuff
57%
swing & miss
10%
contact
90%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
55%
spin 12:54
cutter15% used · 102 pit
1 HR
stuff
50%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
47%
spin 12:23
slider10% used · 154 pit
0 HR
stuff
8%
swing & miss
28%
contact
72%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
44%
spin 11:25
curve10% used · 65 pit
0 HR
stuff
18%
swing & miss
38%
contact
62%
fly ball
18%
ground ball
65%
spin 6:57
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home0.76419%2.85
Away1.01618%4.02
vs LHB1.07713%25%22%
vs RHB1.00511%20%17%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Sam Antonacci L11%2 Trevor Richards R27%3 Kyle Teel L4 Junior Perez R5 Luisangel Acuña R17%6 Chase Meidroth R5%7 Braden Montgomery S8 Tristan Peters L6%9 Jacob Gonzalez L
PHI @ NYMpitcher-park
Citi Field
4:10p Scheduled3 mph Cross R-L
70°
First pitch & venue
PHI @ NYM
Citi Field · 4:10p Scheduled
Weather
Light Drizzle · 70°F · wind 3 mph Cross R-L
HR conditions ×0.97 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
0.97
WindCross R-L
1.00
Temperature70°F
1.00
Top HR plays in this gameKyle Schwarber PHI29%Juan Soto NYM27%Bryce Harper PHI22%Francisco Lindor NYM19%Francisco Alvarez NYM18%
SP: Alan Rangel (R) vs TBD (?)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
ARI @ TBfavorable
Tropicana Field
6:10p Scheduledwind 8 mph Out To RF
88°
First pitch & venue
ARI @ TB
Tropicana Field · 6:10p Scheduled
Weather
Thunderstorms · 88°F · wind wind 8 mph Out To RF
HR conditions ×1.05 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
0.97
WindOut To RF
1.05
Temperature88°F
1.03
Top HR plays in this gameCorbin Carroll ARI27%Junior Caminero TB26%Jonathan Aranda TB26%Ketel Marte ARI22%Gabriel Moreno ARI14%
SP: Jose Cabrera (R) vs Cole Sulser (R)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
ARI lineup · vs Cole Sulser (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Cole Sulser • RHP (TB)
ARI @ TB | vs ARI
1/0 W–L • 5.40 ERA • 33 Ks • 1.55 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 25% FB • 22% K • 5.40 ERA (H 5.17 / A 5.63)
▬ Holding steady
0.87
hittability
Pitcher summary
Cole Sulser carries a 1.31 HR/9. HRs allowed: 6 to RHB (3.4/9). 5.40 ERA.
Last 3 games · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/24 1.0 IP · 14 P0 HR
06/22 1.0 IP · 13 P0 HR
06/20 2.0 IP · 25 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Carroll 27%, Marte 22%, Barrosa 6%
vs righty batscutter · 4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Moreno 14%, Arenado 12%, Jr. 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
15%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
41%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.626
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
22%
ParkTB
0.97
vs LHB · 0.5 HR/9 · 0 HR in 97 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
38%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.500
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
24%
ParkTB
0.97
vs RHB · 2.1 HR/9 · 6 HR in 73 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
17%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
43%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.695
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
20%
ParkTB
0.97
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam44% used · 294 pit
3 HR
stuff
61%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
25%
spin 1:04
change39% used · 262 pit
1 HR
stuff
16%
swing & miss
34%
contact
66%
fly ball
25%
ground ball
56%
spin 1:46
cutter13% used · 87 pit
2 HR
stuff
36%
swing & miss
13%
contact
87%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
30%
spin 11:59
4-seam44% used · 160 pit
0 HR
stuff
61%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
25%
spin 1:04
change39% used · 162 pit
0 HR
stuff
16%
swing & miss
39%
contact
61%
fly ball
25%
ground ball
56%
spin 1:46
cutter13% used · 45 pit
0 HR
stuff
36%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
30%
spin 11:59
4-seam44% used · 134 pit
3 HR
stuff
61%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
25%
spin 1:04
change39% used · 100 pit
1 HR
stuff
16%
swing & miss
27%
contact
73%
fly ball
25%
ground ball
56%
spin 1:46
cutter13% used · 42 pit
2 HR
stuff
36%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
30%
spin 11:59
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home1.15226%5.17
Away1.13221%5.63
vs LHB0.54012%25%24%
vs RHB2.12617%23%20%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Ketel Marte S22%2 Geraldo Perdomo S6%3 Corbin Carroll L27%4 Gabriel Moreno R14%5 Nolan Arenado R12%6 Jorge Barrosa S6%7 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R8%8 Pavin Smith L9 Tommy Troy R
TB lineup · vs Jose Cabrera (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Jose Cabrera R
ARI @ TB | vs TB · no data
1 Yandy Díaz R12%2 Jonathan Aranda L26%3 Junior Caminero R26%4 Richie Palacios L7%5 Jonny DeLuca R7%6 Cedric Mullins L10%7 Victor Mesa Jr. L8 Taylor Walls S4%9 Hunter Feduccia L7%
WSH @ BALHR boost
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
7:05p Scheduled3 mph Cross R-L
75°
First pitch & venue
WSH @ BAL
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 7:05p Scheduled
Weather
Light Drizzle · 75°F · wind 3 mph Cross R-L
HR conditions ×1.09 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
1.08
WindCross R-L
1.00
Temperature75°F
1.01
Top HR plays in this gameJames Wood WSH29%Pete Alonso BAL29%Coby Mayo BAL24%Curtis Mead WSH23%CJ Abrams WSH22%
SP: Foster Griffin (L) vs Brandon Young (R)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
WSH lineup · vs Brandon Young (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Brandon Young • RHP (BAL)
WSH @ BAL | vs WSH
6/2 W–L (Tied–29th) • 3.07 ERA • 49 Ks • 1.26 WHIP
0.9 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 24% FB • 18% K • 3.07 ERA (H 2.80 / A 3.38)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
1.00
hittability
Pitcher summary
Brandon Young carries a 0.94 HR/9. HRs allowed: 4 to LHB (0.9/9), 3 to RHB (0.7/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/21 5.0 IP · 95 P0 HR
06/16 6.0 IP · 92 P0 HR
06/10 7.0 IP · 88 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Wood 29%, Abrams 22%, Jr. 19%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Mead 23%, Crews 15%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
24%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
42%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.509
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
18%
ParkBAL
1.08
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 4 HR in 178 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
43%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.511
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
15%
ParkBAL
1.08
vs RHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 3 HR in 123 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
22%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
39%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.526
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
24%
ParkBAL
1.08
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam40% used · 436 pit
4 HR
stuff
50%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
34%
spin 12:51
split20% used · 223 pit
0 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
49%
spin 1:38
slider15% used · 164 pit
2 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
40%
contact
60%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
50%
spin 10:51
sinker13% used · 142 pit
1 HR
stuff
30%
swing & miss
9%
contact
91%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
51%
spin 1:06
curve11% used · 125 pit
0 HR
stuff
42%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
39%
spin 7:07
4-seam40% used · 299 pit
2 HR
stuff
50%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
34%
spin 12:51
split20% used · 196 pit
0 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
14%
contact
86%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
49%
spin 1:38
slider15% used · 19 pit
1 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
27%
contact
73%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
50%
spin 10:51
sinker13% used · 27 pit
1 HR
stuff
30%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
51%
spin 1:06
curve11% used · 101 pit
0 HR
stuff
42%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
39%
spin 7:07
4-seam40% used · 137 pit
2 HR
stuff
50%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
34%
spin 12:51
split20% used · 27 pit
0 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
38%
contact
62%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
49%
spin 1:38
slider15% used · 145 pit
1 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
42%
contact
58%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
50%
spin 10:51
sinker13% used · 115 pit
0 HR
stuff
30%
swing & miss
7%
contact
93%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
51%
spin 1:06
curve11% used · 24 pit
0 HR
stuff
42%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
39%
spin 7:07
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 51% here · tap to split by cell
.500
up / out
.374
4-Seam 64%
.224
contact
79%
Splitter 12%
.375
contact
71%
up / mid
.630
4-Seam 82%
.679
contact
68%
up / in
.390
4-Seam 89%
.394
contact
89%
middle — over the heartworks 19% here · tap to split by cell
.429
middle / out
.521
4-Seam 46%
.860
contact
92%
Curve 25%
.321
contact
100%
Splitter 19%
.221
contact
100%
middle / mid
.408
4-Seam 48%
.362
contact
90%
Splitter 34%
.481
contact
100%
middle / in
.696
4-Seam 78%
.795
contact
95%
downworks 30% here · tap to split by cell
.626
down / out
.376
Splitter 50%
.418
contact
67%
down / mid
.840
Splitter 57%
.985
contact
62%
4-Seam 18%
.299
contact
100%
Curve 16%
.732
contact
78%
down / in
.470
Splitter 26%
.972
contact
82%
4-Seam 23%
.278
contact
100%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home1.02418%2.80
Away0.56216%3.38
vs LHB0.96412%25%15%
vs RHB1.04313%22%24%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 James Wood L29%2 Curtis Mead R23%3 Jorbit Vivas L7%4 CJ Abrams L22%5 Dylan Crews R15%6 Daylen Lile L12%7 José Tena L16%8 Luis García Jr. L19%9 Keibert Ruiz S9%
BAL lineup · vs Foster Griffin (LHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Foster Griffin • LHP (WSH)
WSH @ BAL | vs BAL
8/2 W–L (Tied–9th) • 3.15 ERA (17th) • 89 Ks (Tied–26th) • 1.06 WHIP (17th)
1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 24% K • 3.15 ERA (H 3.12 / A 3.18)
▬ Holding steady
0.82
hittability
Pitcher summary
Foster Griffin carries a 1.53 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out (2 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 4 to LHB (1.3/9), 12 to RHB (1.7/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/22 7.1 IP · 105 P1 HR
06/16 6.0 IP · 100 P0 HR
06/10 6.0 IP · 100 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscurve · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Basallo 22%, Henderson 14%, Cowser 12%
vs righty bats4-seam · sweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Alonso 29%, Mayo 24%, Alexander 11%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
15%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
39%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.566
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
24%
ParkBAL
1.08
vs LHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 4 HR in 121 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
24%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
36%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.536
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
27%
ParkBAL
1.08
vs RHB · 1.6 HR/9 · 12 HR in 265 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
15%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
41%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.575
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
22%
ParkBAL
1.08
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
cutter30% used · 452 pit
6 HR
stuff
32%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
41%
spin 12:07
4-seam18% used · 271 pit
4 HR
stuff
6%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
39%
ground ball
39%
spin 10:57
sweeper15% used · 232 pit
2 HR
stuff
42%
swing & miss
28%
contact
72%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
34%
spin 4:07
sinker11% used · 165 pit
1 HR
stuff
16%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
65%
spin 10:47
curve10% used · 156 pit
3 HR
stuff
24%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
12%
ground ball
62%
spin 4:58
change10% used · 149 pit
0 HR
stuff
40%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
54%
spin 10:22
split6% used · 90 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
25%
spin 10:52
cutter30% used · 109 pit
2 HR
stuff
32%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
41%
spin 12:07
4-seam18% used · 86 pit
0 HR
stuff
6%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
39%
ground ball
39%
spin 10:57
sweeper15% used · 136 pit
0 HR
stuff
42%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
34%
spin 4:07
sinker11% used · 77 pit
0 HR
stuff
16%
swing & miss
22%
contact
78%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
65%
spin 10:47
curve10% used · 37 pit
2 HR
stuff
24%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
12%
ground ball
62%
spin 4:58
split6% used · 21 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
50%
contact
50%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
25%
spin 10:52
cutter30% used · 343 pit
4 HR
stuff
32%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
41%
spin 12:07
4-seam18% used · 185 pit
4 HR
stuff
6%
swing & miss
14%
contact
86%
fly ball
39%
ground ball
39%
spin 10:57
sweeper15% used · 96 pit
2 HR
stuff
42%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
34%
spin 4:07
sinker11% used · 88 pit
1 HR
stuff
16%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
65%
spin 10:47
curve10% used · 119 pit
1 HR
stuff
24%
swing & miss
25%
contact
75%
fly ball
12%
ground ball
62%
spin 4:58
change10% used · 149 pit
0 HR
stuff
40%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
54%
spin 10:22
split6% used · 69 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
25%
spin 10:52
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home2.01922%3.12
Away1.24725%3.18
vs LHB1.24413%24%27%
vs RHB1.601215%23%22%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Taylor Ward R11%2 Gunnar Henderson L14%3 Pete Alonso R29%4 Coby Mayo R24%5 Colton Cowser L12%6 Samuel Basallo L22%7 Leody Taveras S6%8 Jackson Holliday L11%9 Blaze Alexander R11%
COL @ MINHR boost
Target Field
7:10p Scheduledwind 12 mph Out To CF
81°
First pitch & venue
COL @ MIN
Target Field · 7:10p Scheduled
Weather
Sunny · 81°F · wind wind 12 mph Out To CF
HR conditions ×1.09 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
1.00
WindOut To CF
1.07
Temperature81°F
1.02
Top HR plays in this gameByron Buxton MIN29%Hunter Goodman COL28%Kody Clemens MIN28%Victor Caratini MIN16%Royce Lewis MIN16%
SP: Michael Lorenzen (R) vs Mike Paredes (R)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
COL lineup · vs Mike Paredes (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Mike Paredes R
COL @ MIN | vs COL · no data
1 Jake McCarthy L7%2 Jimmy Herget R8%3 Hunter Goodman R28%4 TJ Rumfield L8%5 Willi Castro S11%6 Tyler Freeman R5%7 Cole Carrigg S8 Ezequiel Tovar R14%9 Edouard Julien L7%
MIN lineup · vs Michael Lorenzen (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Michael Lorenzen • RHP (COL)
COL @ MIN | vs MIN
2/9 W–L • 7.11 ERA • 65 Ks (Tied–79th) • 1.83 WHIP
1.5 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 23% FB • 18% K • 7.11 ERA (H 8.20 / A 6.05)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.99
hittability
Pitcher summary
Michael Lorenzen carries a 1.55 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out (2 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 11 to LHB (2.4/9), 6 to RHB (0.9/9). 7.11 ERA.
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/21 5.1 IP · 90 P1 HR
06/15 5.0 IP · 89 P1 HR
06/10 5.0 IP · 84 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam · curve
Most likely to capitalize: Clemens 28%, Caratini 16%, Gray 13%
vs righty batsslider · change
Most likely to capitalize: Buxton 29%, Lewis 16%, Kreidler 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
15%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
47%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.583
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
18%
ParkMIN
1.00
vs LHB · 1.8 HR/9 · 11 HR in 202 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
16%
Fly ballsballs in the air
28%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
46%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.647
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
18%
ParkMIN
1.00
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 6 HR in 202 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
20%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
45%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.505
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
18%
ParkMIN
1.00
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
change19% used · 297 pit
3 HR
stuff
60%
swing & miss
32%
contact
68%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
41%
spin 2:03
4-seam19% used · 297 pit
6 HR
stuff
40%
swing & miss
9%
contact
91%
fly ball
36%
ground ball
42%
spin 1:29
sinker16% used · 248 pit
0 HR
stuff
39%
swing & miss
10%
contact
90%
fly ball
9%
ground ball
68%
spin 1:34
cutter14% used · 220 pit
2 HR
stuff
43%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
28%
ground ball
47%
spin 12:59
curve13% used · 203 pit
3 HR
stuff
31%
swing & miss
22%
contact
78%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
67%
spin 6:55
slider9% used · 139 pit
2 HR
stuff
12%
swing & miss
21%
contact
79%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
34%
spin 9:51
sweeper8% used · 124 pit
1 HR
stuff
5%
swing & miss
36%
contact
64%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
31%
spin 7:58
change19% used · 211 pit
1 HR
stuff
60%
swing & miss
30%
contact
70%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
41%
spin 2:03
4-seam19% used · 172 pit
6 HR
stuff
40%
swing & miss
7%
contact
93%
fly ball
36%
ground ball
42%
spin 1:29
sinker16% used · 87 pit
0 HR
stuff
39%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
9%
ground ball
68%
spin 1:34
cutter14% used · 121 pit
2 HR
stuff
43%
swing & miss
11%
contact
89%
fly ball
28%
ground ball
47%
spin 12:59
curve13% used · 111 pit
2 HR
stuff
31%
swing & miss
28%
contact
72%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
67%
spin 6:55
slider9% used · 53 pit
0 HR
stuff
12%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
34%
spin 9:51
sweeper8% used · 20 pit
0 HR
stuff
5%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
31%
spin 7:58
change19% used · 86 pit
2 HR
stuff
60%
swing & miss
38%
contact
62%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
41%
spin 2:03
4-seam19% used · 125 pit
0 HR
stuff
40%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
36%
ground ball
42%
spin 1:29
sinker16% used · 161 pit
0 HR
stuff
39%
swing & miss
9%
contact
91%
fly ball
9%
ground ball
68%
spin 1:34
cutter14% used · 99 pit
0 HR
stuff
43%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
28%
ground ball
47%
spin 12:59
curve13% used · 92 pit
1 HR
stuff
31%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
67%
spin 6:55
slider9% used · 86 pit
2 HR
stuff
12%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
34%
spin 9:51
sweeper8% used · 104 pit
1 HR
stuff
5%
swing & miss
36%
contact
64%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
31%
spin 7:58
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 31% here · tap to split by cell
.473
up / out
.564
4-Seam 51%
.716
contact
83%
Sweeper 13%
.254
contact
78%
Slider 10%
.239
contact
75%
up / mid
.682
4-Seam 36%
.653
contact
80%
Sinker 19%
.604
contact
90%
Sweeper 14%
1.165
contact
79%
Cutter 13%
.409
contact
100%
Slider 9%
1.009
contact
75%
up / in
.505
Sinker 41%
.377
contact
94%
4-Seam 15%
.802
contact
90%
middle — over the heartworks 21% here · tap to split by cell
.344
middle / out
.525
Cutter 20%
.444
contact
83%
Sweeper 18%
.156
contact
84%
Slider 17%
.634
contact
83%
middle / mid
.582
Sinker 25%
.484
contact
90%
Slider 22%
.791
contact
90%
Sweeper 17%
.655
contact
88%
4-Seam 14%
.569
contact
94%
Cutter 14%
.388
contact
71%
Change 6%
.292
contact
86%
middle / in
.395
Sinker 40%
.380
contact
92%
Change 20%
.131
contact
63%
Cutter 10%
.382
4-Seam 10%
.711
contact
100%
Curve 10%
.228
contact
100%
downworks 48% here · tap to split by cell
.465
down / out
.405
Slider 20%
.393
contact
58%
Sweeper 20%
.343
contact
64%
Sinker 16%
.406
contact
82%
Curve 12%
.381
contact
47%
Cutter 11%
.392
contact
50%
4-Seam 8%
.499
contact
100%
down / mid
.606
Sinker 31%
.735
contact
90%
Change 19%
.235
contact
56%
Sweeper 15%
.615
contact
77%
Slider 11%
.332
contact
93%
Curve 10%
.293
contact
82%
4-Seam 8%
1.843
contact
100%
Cutter 5%
.465
contact
70%
down / in
.798
Sinker 52%
.394
contact
88%
Change 24%
1.194
contact
56%
Curve 5%
1.722
contact
100%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home1.45616%8.20
Away1.63719%6.05
vs LHB1.821116%28%18%
vs RHB1.15613%20%18%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Ryan Kreidler R9%2 Byron Buxton R29%3 Kody Clemens L28%4 Kyler Fedko R5 Victor Caratini S16%6 Royce Lewis R16%7 Brooks Lee S8%8 Tristan Gray L13%9 Austin Martin R4%
CHC @ MILfavorable
American Family Field
7:10p Scheduled8 mph Cross R-L
71°
First pitch & venue
CHC @ MIL
American Family Field · 7:10p Scheduled
Weather
Cloudy · 71°F · wind 8 mph Cross R-L
HR conditions ×1.05 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
1.05
WindCross R-L
1.00
Temperature71°F
1.00
Top HR plays in this gameWilliam Contreras MIL27%Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC26%Jackson Chourio MIL25%Ian Happ CHC22%Seiya Suzuki CHC22%
SP: David Peterson (L) vs Kyle Harrison (L)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
CHC lineup · vs Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Kyle Harrison • LHP (MIL)
CHC @ MIL | vs CHC
8/1 W–L (Tied–9th) • 2.50 ERA • 87 Ks (Tied–32nd) • 1.06 WHIP
1.2 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 26% FB • 28% K • 2.50 ERA (H 1.29 / A 4.20)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.82
hittability
Pitcher summary
Kyle Harrison carries a 1.17 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out (4 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 1 to LHB (0.4/9), 7 to RHB (1.3/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/20 6.1 IP · 85 P1 HR
06/14 6.0 IP · 80 P0 HR
06/08 2.1 IP · 71 P3 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Crow-Armstrong 26%, Busch 13%, Conforto 13%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Happ 22%, Suzuki 22%, Kelly 21%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
15%
Fly ballsballs in the air
26%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
34%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.507
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
28%
ParkMIL
1.05
vs LHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 1 HR in 94 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
15%
Fly ballsballs in the air
24%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
32%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.517
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
24%
ParkMIL
1.05
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 9 HR in 233 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
14%
Fly ballsballs in the air
26%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
39%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.516
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
29%
ParkMIL
1.05
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam58% used · 796 pit
6 HR
stuff
74%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
35%
spin 10:24
slurve29% used · 396 pit
1 HR
swing & miss
28%
contact
72%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
45%
spin 4:41
change11% used · 145 pit
1 HR
stuff
8%
swing & miss
22%
contact
78%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
65%
spin 9:00
4-seam58% used · 221 pit
0 HR
stuff
74%
swing & miss
27%
contact
73%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
35%
spin 10:24
slurve29% used · 139 pit
1 HR
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
45%
spin 4:41
change11% used · 2 pit
0 HR
stuff
8%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
65%
spin 9:00
4-seam58% used · 575 pit
6 HR
stuff
74%
swing & miss
30%
contact
70%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
35%
spin 10:24
slurve29% used · 257 pit
0 HR
swing & miss
32%
contact
68%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
45%
spin 4:41
change11% used · 143 pit
1 HR
stuff
8%
swing & miss
22%
contact
78%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
65%
spin 9:00
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 42% here · tap to split by cell
.553
up / out
.461
4-Seam 79%
.488
contact
58%
up / mid
.684
4-Seam 89%
.838
contact
69%
up / in
.217
4-Seam 90%
.234
contact
66%
middle — over the heartworks 21% here · tap to split by cell
.637
middle / out
.746
4-Seam 50%
.747
contact
80%
Slurve 28%
.636
contact
92%
Change 19%
.895
contact
100%
middle / mid
.416
4-Seam 73%
.182
contact
75%
Slurve 17%
.767
contact
100%
Change 9%
.417
contact
83%
middle / in
.632
4-Seam 68%
.637
contact
75%
Change 8%
.709
contact
100%
downworks 37% here · tap to split by cell
.368
down / out
.364
Slurve 42%
.283
contact
79%
4-Seam 30%
.424
contact
85%
Change 28%
.350
contact
62%
down / mid
.454
Slurve 36%
.343
contact
77%
Change 31%
.318
contact
73%
4-Seam 30%
.597
contact
96%
down / in
.559
Slurve 48%
.629
contact
42%
4-Seam 27%
.244
contact
91%
Change 23%
.786
contact
64%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home0.64331%1.29
Away1.50529%4.20
vs LHB0.77115%24%24%
vs RHB1.40914%26%29%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong L26%2 Alex Bregman R7%3 Michael Busch L13%4 Seiya Suzuki R22%5 Ian Happ S22%6 Nico Hoerner R4%7 Carson Kelly R21%8 Michael Conforto L13%9 Dansby Swanson R10%
MIL lineup · vs David Peterson (LHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
David Peterson • LHP (CHC)
CHC @ MIL | vs MIL
3/6 W–L • 6.09 ERA • 63 Ks (Tied–90th) • 1.65 WHIP
0.7 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 19% FB • 19% K • 6.09 ERA (H 7.15 / A 5.03)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.73
hittability
Pitcher summary
David Peterson carries a 0.73 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out (4 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 3 to LHB (1.2/9), 3 to RHB (0.6/9). 6.09 ERA.
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/21 4.0 IP · 79 P1 HR
06/15 3.0 IP · 54 P bulk1 HR
06/10 3.2 IP · 63 P bulk2 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Bauers 16%, Turang 8%, Yelich 7%
vs righty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Contreras 27%, Chourio 25%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
19%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
42%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.531
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
19%
ParkMIL
1.05
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 3 HR in 123 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
19%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
44%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.561
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
24%
ParkMIL
1.05
vs RHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 3 HR in 231 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
20%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
40%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.518
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
16%
ParkMIL
1.05
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
sinker30% used · 375 pit
3 HR
stuff
7%
swing & miss
11%
contact
89%
fly ball
14%
ground ball
61%
spin 10:49
slider24% used · 306 pit
1 HR
stuff
13%
swing & miss
28%
contact
72%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
59%
spin 12:59
4-seam22% used · 278 pit
1 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
43%
spin 10:53
curve13% used · 159 pit
1 HR
stuff
13%
swing & miss
31%
contact
69%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
42%
spin 5:02
change11% used · 141 pit
0 HR
stuff
30%
swing & miss
22%
contact
78%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
48%
spin 10:06
sinker30% used · 167 pit
2 HR
stuff
7%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
14%
ground ball
61%
spin 10:49
slider24% used · 160 pit
1 HR
stuff
13%
swing & miss
32%
contact
68%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
59%
spin 12:59
4-seam22% used · 36 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
43%
spin 10:53
curve13% used · 46 pit
0 HR
stuff
13%
swing & miss
42%
contact
58%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
42%
spin 5:02
change11% used · 9 pit
0 HR
stuff
30%
swing & miss
50%
contact
50%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
48%
spin 10:06
sinker30% used · 208 pit
1 HR
stuff
7%
swing & miss
6%
contact
94%
fly ball
14%
ground ball
61%
spin 10:49
slider24% used · 146 pit
0 HR
stuff
13%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
59%
spin 12:59
4-seam22% used · 242 pit
1 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
14%
contact
86%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
43%
spin 10:53
curve13% used · 113 pit
1 HR
stuff
13%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
42%
spin 5:02
change11% used · 132 pit
0 HR
stuff
30%
swing & miss
21%
contact
79%
fly ball
21%
ground ball
48%
spin 10:06
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 24% here · tap to split by cell
.344
up / mid
.402
Sinker 53%
.300
contact
81%
up / in
.276
Sinker 52%
.284
contact
89%
Curve 12%
.080
contact
100%
middle — over the heartworks 25% here · tap to split by cell
.780
middle / out
.401
Slider 38%
.495
contact
77%
Sinker 36%
.259
contact
100%
middle / mid
.832
Sinker 59%
.449
contact
92%
Slider 26%
1.470
contact
92%
middle / in
.540
Sinker 71%
.559
contact
89%
Slider 15%
.504
contact
88%
downworks 51% here · tap to split by cell
.529
down / out
.412
Slider 60%
.383
contact
39%
down / mid
.420
Sinker 45%
.487
contact
86%
Slider 43%
.350
contact
69%
down / in
.432
Sinker 58%
.417
contact
76%
Slider 19%
.307
contact
71%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home0.79319%7.15
Away0.79320%5.03
vs LHB1.04313%19%24%
vs RHB0.68313%20%16%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Christian Yelich L7%2 Jackson Chourio R25%3 Brice Turang L8%4 William Contreras R27%5 Jake Bauers L16%6 Sal Frelick L3%7 Garrett Mitchell L6%8 Cooper Pratt R9 David Hamilton L5%
SEA @ CLEpitcher-park
Progressive Field
7:10p Scheduled8 mph Cross R-L
76°
First pitch & venue
SEA @ CLE
Progressive Field · 7:10p Scheduled
Weather
Cloudy · 76°F · wind 8 mph Cross R-L
HR conditions ×0.97 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
0.96
WindCross R-L
1.00
Temperature76°F
1.01
Top HR plays in this gameDominic Canzone SEA28%Cal Raleigh SEA28%Julio Rodríguez SEA25%Kyle Manzardo CLE24%Josh Naylor SEA10%
SP: Logan Gilbert (R) vs Slade Cecconi (R)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
SEA lineup · vs Slade Cecconi (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Slade Cecconi • RHP (CLE)
SEA @ CLE | vs SEA
3/6 W–L • 4.48 ERA (55th) • 66 Ks (Tied–74th) • 1.40 WHIP (56th)
1.2 HR/9 • 13% Barrel • 24% FB • 19% K • 4.48 ERA (H 4.07 / A 4.65)
▬ Holding steady
0.90
hittability
Pitcher summary
Slade Cecconi carries a 1.22 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out (3 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 6 to LHB (1.2/9), 7 to RHB (1.4/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/21 6.0 IP · 79 P1 HR
06/16 5.2 IP · 82 P1 HR
06/09 5.0 IP · 87 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Canzone 28%, Raleigh 28%, Naylor 10%
vs righty batssweeper · curve
Most likely to capitalize: Rodríguez 25%, Arozarena 10%, Robles 4%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
24%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
37%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.540
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
19%
ParkCLE
0.96
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 6 HR in 220 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
38%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.542
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
21%
ParkCLE
0.96
vs RHB · 1.4 HR/9 · 7 HR in 183 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
22%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
37%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.539
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
18%
ParkCLE
0.96
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam29% used · 445 pit
4 HR
stuff
64%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
29%
ground ball
41%
spin 1:24
cutter26% used · 396 pit
4 HR
stuff
15%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
44%
spin 12:18
sinker18% used · 278 pit
1 HR
stuff
65%
swing & miss
7%
contact
93%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
56%
spin 1:38
curve15% used · 229 pit
2 HR
stuff
9%
swing & miss
31%
contact
69%
fly ball
37%
ground ball
37%
spin 7:15
sweeper6% used · 92 pit
2 HR
stuff
15%
swing & miss
25%
contact
75%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
54%
spin 7:52
4-seam29% used · 271 pit
2 HR
stuff
64%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
29%
ground ball
41%
spin 1:24
cutter26% used · 202 pit
3 HR
stuff
15%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
44%
spin 12:18
sinker18% used · 116 pit
0 HR
stuff
65%
swing & miss
4%
contact
96%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
56%
spin 1:38
curve15% used · 171 pit
1 HR
stuff
9%
swing & miss
32%
contact
68%
fly ball
37%
ground ball
37%
spin 7:15
sweeper6% used · 33 pit
0 HR
stuff
15%
swing & miss
27%
contact
73%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
54%
spin 7:52
4-seam29% used · 174 pit
2 HR
stuff
64%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
29%
ground ball
41%
spin 1:24
cutter26% used · 194 pit
1 HR
stuff
15%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
44%
spin 12:18
sinker18% used · 162 pit
1 HR
stuff
65%
swing & miss
8%
contact
92%
fly ball
16%
ground ball
56%
spin 1:38
curve15% used · 58 pit
1 HR
stuff
9%
swing & miss
26%
contact
74%
fly ball
37%
ground ball
37%
spin 7:15
sweeper6% used · 59 pit
2 HR
stuff
15%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
54%
spin 7:52
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 40% here · tap to split by cell
.740
up / out
.543
4-Seam 50%
.830
contact
76%
Sinker 9%
.250
contact
100%
up / mid
.869
4-Seam 77%
.950
contact
78%
up / in
.492
4-Seam 76%
.620
contact
80%
Cutter 14%
.142
contact
92%
middle — over the heartworks 22% here · tap to split by cell
.509
middle / out
.557
4-Seam 49%
.441
contact
79%
Curve 17%
.385
contact
90%
Sinker 10%
.962
contact
100%
Change 8%
.487
contact
80%
Cutter 7%
.215
contact
88%
middle / mid
.736
4-Seam 58%
.677
contact
89%
Curve 15%
.942
contact
91%
Cutter 8%
.443
contact
100%
Sinker 7%
.976
contact
100%
Slider 7%
.428
contact
88%
Change 3%
1.811
contact
100%
middle / in
.789
4-Seam 55%
.744
contact
91%
Curve 13%
1.271
contact
100%
Change 8%
.624
contact
100%
downworks 38% here · tap to split by cell
.378
down / out
.328
Curve 31%
.235
contact
85%
4-Seam 25%
.361
contact
88%
Change 24%
.416
contact
68%
Sinker 9%
.098
contact
90%
Slider 6%
.679
contact
88%
down / mid
.708
Curve 30%
.401
contact
68%
4-Seam 27%
.805
contact
93%
Change 18%
.505
contact
67%
Cutter 9%
1.126
contact
86%
Slider 7%
1.634
contact
62%
down / in
.517
Curve 38%
.932
contact
41%
4-Seam 17%
.184
contact
88%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home1.11323%4.07
Away1.35916%4.65
vs LHB1.08613%25%21%
vs RHB1.38713%22%18%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Randy Arozarena R10%2 Julio Rodríguez R25%3 Cal Raleigh S28%4 Dominic Canzone L28%5 Josh Naylor L10%6 J.P. Crawford L4%7 Victor Robles R4%8 Cole Young L8%9 Colt Emerson L9%
CLE lineup · vs Logan Gilbert (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Logan Gilbert • RHP (SEA)
SEA @ CLE | vs CLE
6/4 W–L (Tied–29th) • 3.29 ERA (21st) • 100 Ks (17th) • 1.01 WHIP (7th)
1.3 HR/9 • 18% Barrel • 25% FB • 26% K • 3.29 ERA (H 4.63 / A 1.04)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.89
hittability
Pitcher summary
Logan Gilbert carries a 1.28 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out. HRs allowed: 8 to LHB (1.5/9), 6 to RHB (1.3/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/21 6.1 IP · 94 P1 HR
06/16 7.0 IP · 94 P0 HR
06/09 6.0 IP · 105 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter · slider
Most likely to capitalize: Manzardo 24%, Bazzana 9%, Rocchio 5%
vs righty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Arias 10%, Hedges 8%, Fry 6%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
18%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
44%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.581
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
26%
ParkCLE
0.96
vs LHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 8 HR in 220 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
16%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
42%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.579
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
30%
ParkCLE
0.96
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 6 HR in 191 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
18%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
45%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.566
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
20%
ParkCLE
0.96
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam36% used · 600 pit
8 HR
stuff
49%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
17%
spin 12:54
slider23% used · 373 pit
4 HR
stuff
5%
swing & miss
36%
contact
64%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
46%
spin 7:56
split14% used · 234 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
40%
contact
60%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
53%
spin 3:05
cutter10% used · 159 pit
2 HR
stuff
86%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
31%
spin 12:05
curve9% used · 156 pit
0 HR
stuff
42%
swing & miss
34%
contact
66%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
40%
spin 7:21
change7% used · 122 pit
0 HR
stuff
34%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
44%
spin 2:08
4-seam36% used · 323 pit
3 HR
stuff
49%
swing & miss
25%
contact
75%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
17%
spin 12:54
slider23% used · 194 pit
3 HR
stuff
5%
swing & miss
38%
contact
62%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
46%
spin 7:56
split14% used · 132 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
44%
contact
56%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
53%
spin 3:05
cutter10% used · 115 pit
2 HR
stuff
86%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
31%
spin 12:05
curve9% used · 51 pit
0 HR
stuff
42%
swing & miss
35%
contact
65%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
40%
spin 7:21
change7% used · 114 pit
0 HR
stuff
34%
swing & miss
28%
contact
72%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
44%
spin 2:08
4-seam36% used · 277 pit
5 HR
stuff
49%
swing & miss
14%
contact
86%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
17%
spin 12:54
slider23% used · 179 pit
1 HR
stuff
5%
swing & miss
34%
contact
66%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
46%
spin 7:56
split14% used · 102 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
35%
contact
65%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
53%
spin 3:05
cutter10% used · 44 pit
0 HR
stuff
86%
swing & miss
11%
contact
89%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
31%
spin 12:05
curve9% used · 105 pit
0 HR
stuff
42%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
40%
spin 7:21
change7% used · 8 pit
0 HR
stuff
34%
swing & miss
50%
contact
50%
fly ball
17%
ground ball
44%
spin 2:08
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs LHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 29% here · tap to split by cell
.400
up / out
.710
4-Seam 61%
.927
contact
74%
Splitter 10%
.645
contact
100%
up / mid
.437
4-Seam 67%
.239
contact
76%
Slider 18%
1.135
contact
73%
up / in
.312
4-Seam 64%
.375
contact
84%
Slider 17%
.265
contact
75%
middle — over the heartworks 20% here · tap to split by cell
.727
middle / out
.421
4-Seam 35%
.372
contact
74%
Slider 32%
.575
contact
91%
Splitter 20%
.251
contact
72%
Change 6%
.331
contact
71%
middle / mid
1.132
4-Seam 46%
.791
contact
86%
Slider 35%
1.487
contact
91%
Cutter 6%
.811
contact
100%
Curve 4%
1.688
middle / in
.287
4-Seam 48%
.296
contact
82%
Slider 29%
.179
contact
88%
Cutter 10%
.376
contact
100%
downworks 51% here · tap to split by cell
.590
down / out
.336
Splitter 40%
.309
contact
40%
Slider 28%
.320
contact
74%
Change 9%
.411
contact
85%
down / mid
.635
Slider 41%
.968
contact
67%
Splitter 25%
.110
contact
38%
4-Seam 19%
.729
contact
96%
down / in
.652
Slider 46%
.930
contact
38%
Splitter 23%
.201
contact
48%
4-Seam 15%
.490
contact
78%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home2.011328%4.63
Away0.26126%1.04
vs LHB1.33816%25%30%
vs RHB1.20618%23%20%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Travis Bazzana L9%2 Kyle Manzardo L24%3 Brayan Rocchio S5%4 Kahlil Watson L5 Cooper Ingle L6 Gabriel Arias R10%7 Steven Kwan L3%8 David Fry R6%9 Austin Hedges R8%
MIA @ STLneutral
Busch Stadium
7:15p Scheduledwind 4 mph Out To RF
81°
First pitch & venue
MIA @ STL
Busch Stadium · 7:15p Scheduled
Weather
Thunderstorms · 81°F · wind wind 4 mph Out To RF
HR conditions ×1.02 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
0.98
WindOut To RF
1.02
Temperature81°F
1.02
Top HR plays in this gameKyle Stowers MIA28%Alec Burleson STL25%Heriberto Hernández MIA22%Jordan Walker STL21%JJ Wetherholt STL18%
SP: TBD (?) vs TBD (?)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
LAD @ SDneutral
Petco Park
8:40p Scheduledwind 9 mph Out To RF
73°
First pitch & venue
LAD @ SD
Petco Park · 8:40p Scheduled
Weather
Mostly Sunny · 73°F · wind wind 9 mph Out To RF
HR conditions ×1.00 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
0.94
WindOut To RF
1.05
Temperature73°F
1.00
Top HR plays in this gameMax Muncy LAD29%Freddie Freeman LAD25%Andy Pages LAD24%Manny Machado SD22%Dalton Rushing LAD21%
SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) vs Randy Vásquez (R)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
LAD lineup · vs Randy Vásquez (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Randy Vásquez • RHP (SD)prime target
LAD @ SD | vs LAD
6/5 W–L (Tied–29th) • 4.17 ERA • 59 Ks • 1.40 WHIP
1.3 HR/9 • 18% Barrel • 25% FB • 19% K • 4.17 ERA (H 4.99 / A 3.32)
▬ Holding steady
1.10
hittability
Pitcher summary
Randy Vásquez carries a 1.29 HR/9 and gave up 0 last time out (2 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 5 to LHB (0.8/9), 7 to RHB (1.9/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/19 3.1 IP · 72 P0 HR
06/13 5.0 IP · 100 P1 HR
06/07 4.0 IP · 75 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 29%, Freeman 25%, Rushing 21%
vs righty batscurve · sweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Pages 24%, Betts 13%, Call 4%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
18%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
45%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.653
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
19%
ParkSD
0.94
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 5 HR in 221 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
17%
Fly ballsballs in the air
24%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
44%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.581
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
20%
ParkSD
0.94
vs RHB · 1.7 HR/9 · 8 HR in 159 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
17%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
44%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.684
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
18%
ParkSD
0.94
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam33% used · 480 pit
3 HR
stuff
71%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
25%
ground ball
30%
spin 1:15
cutter23% used · 337 pit
3 HR
stuff
77%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
28%
spin 12:03
sinker13% used · 194 pit
2 HR
stuff
89%
swing & miss
9%
contact
91%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
41%
spin 1:19
curve12% used · 170 pit
2 HR
stuff
74%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
51%
spin 8:46
change9% used · 126 pit
0 HR
stuff
95%
swing & miss
28%
contact
72%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
37%
spin 2:14
sweeper6% used · 95 pit
2 HR
stuff
49%
swing & miss
13%
contact
87%
fly ball
41%
ground ball
36%
spin 8:55
4-seam33% used · 292 pit
2 HR
stuff
71%
swing & miss
13%
contact
87%
fly ball
25%
ground ball
30%
spin 1:15
cutter23% used · 173 pit
1 HR
stuff
77%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
28%
spin 12:03
sinker13% used · 68 pit
0 HR
stuff
89%
swing & miss
13%
contact
87%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
41%
spin 1:19
curve12% used · 140 pit
1 HR
stuff
74%
swing & miss
22%
contact
78%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
51%
spin 8:46
change9% used · 124 pit
0 HR
stuff
95%
swing & miss
30%
contact
70%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
37%
spin 2:14
sweeper6% used · 39 pit
1 HR
stuff
49%
swing & miss
22%
contact
78%
fly ball
41%
ground ball
36%
spin 8:55
4-seam33% used · 188 pit
1 HR
stuff
71%
swing & miss
27%
contact
73%
fly ball
25%
ground ball
30%
spin 1:15
cutter23% used · 164 pit
2 HR
stuff
77%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
28%
spin 12:03
sinker13% used · 126 pit
2 HR
stuff
89%
swing & miss
7%
contact
93%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
41%
spin 1:19
curve12% used · 30 pit
1 HR
stuff
74%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
51%
spin 8:46
change9% used · 2 pit
0 HR
stuff
95%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
37%
spin 2:14
sweeper6% used · 56 pit
1 HR
stuff
49%
swing & miss
7%
contact
93%
fly ball
41%
ground ball
36%
spin 8:55
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home1.82821%4.99
Away0.71314%3.32
vs LHB0.95517%24%20%
vs RHB1.68817%25%18%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Shohei Ohtani L14%2 Andy Pages R24%3 Freddie Freeman L25%4 Mookie Betts R13%5 Max Muncy L29%6 Alex Call R4%7 Tommy Edman S8 Dalton Rushing L21%9 Alex Freeland S7%
SD lineup · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Yoshinobu Yamamoto • RHP (LAD)
LAD @ SD | vs SD
7/5 W–L (Tied–21st) • 2.65 ERA (8th) • 86 Ks (Tied–35th) • 0.87 WHIP (2nd)
1.1 HR/9 • 11% Barrel • 20% FB • 25% K • 2.65 ERA (H 3.04 / A 2.18)
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3
0.61
hittability
Pitcher summary
Yoshinobu Yamamoto carries a 1.13 HR/9 and gave up 0 last time out (1 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 5 to LHB (0.9/9), 6 to RHB (1.0/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
◐ Homer-prone on the year, quieter last 3 Homer-prone over the full season — the quiet recent stretch is a small sample the model discounts.
06/20 6.0 IP · 102 P0 HR
06/13 8.1 IP · 109 P1 HR
06/06 8.0 IP · 93 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Merrill 15%, Song 4%
vs righty batscurve · cutter
Most likely to capitalize: Machado 22%, Jr. 14%, France 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
11%
Fly ballsballs in the air
20%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
37%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.509
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
25%
ParkSD
0.94
vs LHB · 1.0 HR/9 · 5 HR in 193 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
11%
Fly ballsballs in the air
19%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
37%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.516
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
23%
ParkSD
0.94
vs RHB · 1.3 HR/9 · 6 HR in 179 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
23%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
39%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.517
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
27%
ParkSD
0.94
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam27% used · 397 pit
4 HR
stuff
63%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
32%
spin 1:13
split27% used · 392 pit
3 HR
stuff
78%
swing & miss
31%
contact
69%
fly ball
4%
ground ball
74%
spin 1:57
cutter13% used · 196 pit
2 HR
stuff
69%
swing & miss
26%
contact
74%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
46%
spin 12:00
curve13% used · 194 pit
2 HR
stuff
68%
swing & miss
25%
contact
75%
fly ball
29%
ground ball
35%
spin 7:12
sinker12% used · 179 pit
0 HR
stuff
77%
swing & miss
11%
contact
89%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
58%
spin 1:07
slider7% used · 95 pit
0 HR
stuff
68%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
50%
spin 9:29
4-seam27% used · 246 pit
3 HR
stuff
63%
swing & miss
22%
contact
78%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
32%
spin 1:13
split27% used · 236 pit
1 HR
stuff
78%
swing & miss
26%
contact
74%
fly ball
4%
ground ball
74%
spin 1:57
cutter13% used · 130 pit
1 HR
stuff
69%
swing & miss
20%
contact
80%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
46%
spin 12:00
curve13% used · 117 pit
0 HR
stuff
68%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
29%
ground ball
35%
spin 7:12
sinker12% used · 38 pit
0 HR
stuff
77%
swing & miss
7%
contact
93%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
58%
spin 1:07
slider7% used · 11 pit
0 HR
stuff
68%
swing & miss
0%
contact
100%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
50%
spin 9:29
4-seam27% used · 151 pit
1 HR
stuff
63%
swing & miss
26%
contact
74%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
32%
spin 1:13
split27% used · 156 pit
2 HR
stuff
78%
swing & miss
39%
contact
61%
fly ball
4%
ground ball
74%
spin 1:57
cutter13% used · 66 pit
1 HR
stuff
69%
swing & miss
39%
contact
61%
fly ball
23%
ground ball
46%
spin 12:00
curve13% used · 77 pit
2 HR
stuff
68%
swing & miss
28%
contact
72%
fly ball
29%
ground ball
35%
spin 7:12
sinker12% used · 141 pit
0 HR
stuff
77%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
58%
spin 1:07
slider7% used · 84 pit
0 HR
stuff
68%
swing & miss
37%
contact
63%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
50%
spin 9:29
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 22% here · tap to split by cell
.625
up / out
.473
4-Seam 78%
.407
contact
77%
up / mid
.750
4-Seam 67%
1.178
contact
69%
Cutter 10%
.630
contact
100%
Sinker 7%
.026
contact
67%
Slider 6%
.720
contact
88%
up / in
.495
4-Seam 48%
.569
contact
71%
Sinker 20%
.287
contact
70%
Splitter 16%
.780
contact
93%
middle — over the heartworks 21% here · tap to split by cell
.634
middle / out
.543
4-Seam 51%
.607
contact
81%
Cutter 27%
.659
contact
77%
Slider 9%
.501
contact
91%
Splitter 3%
.230
contact
100%
middle / mid
.642
4-Seam 40%
.592
contact
82%
Sinker 19%
.617
contact
100%
Curve 15%
.604
contact
88%
Cutter 14%
.921
contact
100%
Splitter 6%
.486
contact
100%
middle / in
.377
Sinker 43%
.360
contact
89%
Splitter 22%
.578
contact
86%
4-Seam 19%
.233
contact
96%
Curve 13%
.442
contact
100%
downworks 57% here · tap to split by cell
.488
down / out
.373
Curve 24%
.291
contact
47%
4-Seam 23%
1.082
contact
90%
Cutter 22%
.296
contact
67%
Splitter 16%
.301
contact
53%
Slider 12%
.257
contact
54%
down / mid
.634
Splitter 43%
.349
contact
49%
Curve 23%
.815
contact
61%
4-Seam 13%
.748
contact
89%
Sinker 11%
.650
contact
100%
down / in
.626
Splitter 46%
.608
contact
51%
Sinker 35%
.701
contact
77%
Curve 7%
.568
contact
83%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home1.25724%3.04
Away0.65325%2.18
vs LHB1.05511%19%23%
vs RHB1.25612%23%27%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Fernando Tatis Jr. R14%2 Samad Taylor R3 Manny Machado R22%4 Xander Bogaerts R6%5 Jackson Merrill L15%6 Miguel Andujar R5%7 Ty France R8%8 Freddy Fermin R3%9 Sung-Mun Song L4%
ATL @ SFneutral
Oracle Park
9:05p Scheduledwind 19 mph Out To RF
64°
First pitch & venue
ATL @ SF
Oracle Park · 9:05p Scheduled
Weather
Sunny · 64°F · wind wind 19 mph Out To RF
HR conditions ×0.97 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
0.88
WindOut To RF
1.11
Temperature64°F
0.99
Top HR plays in this gameBryce Eldridge SF27%Matt Olson ATL26%Rafael Devers SF25%Michael Harris II ATL25%Casey Schmitt SF24%
SP: Bryce Elder (R) vs Logan Webb (R)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
ATL lineup · vs Logan Webb (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Logan Webb • RHP (SF)
ATL @ SF | vs ATL
4/5 W–L (Tied–82nd) • 3.35 ERA (Tied–23rd) • 70 Ks (Tied–64th) • 1.12 WHIP (21st)
0.7 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 19% FB • 21% K • 3.35 ERA (H 3.92 / A 2.84)
▬ Holding steady
0.60
hittability
Pitcher summary
Logan Webb carries a 0.70 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out. HRs allowed: 5 to LHB (0.7/9), 1 to RHB (0.3/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/21 8.0 IP · 103 P1 HR
06/14 8.0 IP · 106 P0 HR
06/08 8.0 IP · 99 P0 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batscutter · sinker
Most likely to capitalize: Olson 26%, II 25%, Baldwin 18%
vs righty batssweeper
Most likely to capitalize: Riley 10%, Bart 5%, White 4%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
19%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
43%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.479
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
21%
ParkSF
0.88
vs LHB · 0.9 HR/9 · 5 HR in 222 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
14%
Fly ballsballs in the air
19%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
40%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.503
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
22%
ParkSF
0.88
vs RHB · 0.6 HR/9 · 1 HR in 145 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
21%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
45%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.480
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
21%
ParkSF
0.88
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
sinker32% used · 425 pit
3 HR
stuff
6%
swing & miss
10%
contact
90%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
71%
spin 2:03
change25% used · 339 pit
0 HR
stuff
9%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
2%
ground ball
62%
spin 3:05
sweeper20% used · 273 pit
1 HR
stuff
57%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
25%
spin 7:54
4-seam12% used · 155 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
42%
spin 1:57
cutter11% used · 147 pit
2 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
22%
contact
78%
fly ball
10%
ground ball
33%
spin 1:35
sinker32% used · 183 pit
3 HR
stuff
6%
swing & miss
8%
contact
92%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
71%
spin 2:03
change25% used · 250 pit
0 HR
stuff
9%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
2%
ground ball
62%
spin 3:05
sweeper20% used · 176 pit
0 HR
stuff
57%
swing & miss
28%
contact
72%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
25%
spin 7:54
4-seam12% used · 113 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
42%
spin 1:57
cutter11% used · 101 pit
2 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
10%
ground ball
33%
spin 1:35
sinker32% used · 242 pit
0 HR
stuff
6%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
71%
spin 2:03
change25% used · 89 pit
0 HR
stuff
9%
swing & miss
43%
contact
57%
fly ball
2%
ground ball
62%
spin 3:05
sweeper20% used · 97 pit
1 HR
stuff
57%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
31%
ground ball
25%
spin 7:54
4-seam12% used · 42 pit
0 HR
stuff
1%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
42%
spin 1:57
cutter11% used · 46 pit
0 HR
stuff
35%
swing & miss
27%
contact
73%
fly ball
10%
ground ball
33%
spin 1:35
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home0.23121%3.92
Away0.81421%2.84
vs LHB0.95514%19%22%
vs RHB0.60112%21%21%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Mauricio Dubón R4%2 Michael Harris II L25%3 Ozzie Albies S5%4 Matt Olson L26%5 Austin Riley R10%6 Eli White R4%7 Joey Bart R5%8 Drake Baldwin L18%9 Dominic Smith L5%
SF lineup · vs Bryce Elder (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Bryce Elder • RHP (ATL)
ATL @ SF | vs SF
5/5 W–L (Tied–51st) • 3.71 ERA (33rd) • 79 Ks (Tied–48th) • 1.21 WHIP (40th)
0.9 HR/9 • 12% Barrel • 22% FB • 19% K • 3.71 ERA (H 3.34 / A 4.41)
▲ Easier to take deep lately
0.85
hittability
Pitcher summary
Bryce Elder carries a 0.86 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out (4 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 4 to LHB (0.7/9), 5 to RHB (1.4/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▲ Easier to take deep lately This pitcher is trending toward giving up home runs.
06/21 6.0 IP · 95 P1 HR
06/14 4.0 IP · 75 P2 HR
06/07 6.0 IP · 88 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Eldridge 27%, Devers 25%, Gilbert 8%
vs righty batssinker
Most likely to capitalize: Schmitt 24%, Adames 17%, Haase 9%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
22%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
40%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.467
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
19%
ParkSF
0.88
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 4 HR in 268 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
12%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
36%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.445
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
19%
ParkSF
0.88
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 5 HR in 155 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
14%
Fly ballsballs in the air
17%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
47%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.537
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
21%
ParkSF
0.88
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
slider28% used · 412 pit
3 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
28%
contact
72%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
49%
spin 7:21
sinker27% used · 411 pit
5 HR
stuff
8%
swing & miss
13%
contact
87%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
63%
spin 1:09
4-seam23% used · 346 pit
0 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
14%
contact
86%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
38%
spin 12:51
cutter13% used · 190 pit
1 HR
stuff
55%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
41%
spin 12:28
change9% used · 138 pit
0 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
43%
spin 1:50
slider28% used · 256 pit
2 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
27%
contact
73%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
49%
spin 7:21
sinker27% used · 120 pit
1 HR
stuff
8%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
63%
spin 1:09
4-seam23% used · 300 pit
0 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
14%
contact
86%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
38%
spin 12:51
cutter13% used · 175 pit
1 HR
stuff
55%
swing & miss
13%
contact
87%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
41%
spin 12:28
change9% used · 115 pit
0 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
30%
contact
70%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
43%
spin 1:50
slider28% used · 156 pit
1 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
30%
contact
70%
fly ball
22%
ground ball
49%
spin 7:21
sinker27% used · 291 pit
4 HR
stuff
8%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
15%
ground ball
63%
spin 1:09
4-seam23% used · 46 pit
0 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
30%
ground ball
38%
spin 12:51
cutter13% used · 15 pit
0 HR
stuff
55%
swing & miss
43%
contact
57%
fly ball
24%
ground ball
41%
spin 12:28
change9% used · 23 pit
0 HR
stuff
11%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
27%
ground ball
43%
spin 1:50
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 22% here · tap to split by cell
.455
up / out
.435
Sinker 51%
.472
contact
67%
up / mid
.653
Sinker 60%
.745
contact
100%
4-Seam 19%
.098
contact
82%
up / in
.288
Sinker 61%
.289
contact
93%
Slider 16%
.733
contact
100%
4-Seam 14%
.074
contact
78%
middle — over the heartworks 18% here · tap to split by cell
.478
middle / out
.756
Sinker 51%
.580
contact
100%
Slider 41%
.873
contact
92%
4-Seam 6%
.600
contact
88%
middle / mid
.674
Sinker 49%
.625
contact
100%
Slider 46%
.758
contact
96%
middle / in
.490
Sinker 79%
.460
contact
93%
Slider 8%
.132
contact
100%
downworks 60% here · tap to split by cell
.561
down / out
.413
Slider 59%
.419
contact
52%
Sinker 37%
.414
contact
96%
down / mid
.616
Sinker 53%
.706
contact
79%
Slider 38%
.604
contact
80%
Change 9%
.287
contact
82%
down / in
.661
Sinker 81%
.627
contact
70%
Change 11%
.905
contact
84%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home0.87617%3.34
Away1.10424%4.41
vs LHB0.71412%25%19%
vs RHB1.22514%17%21%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Matt Chapman R7%2 Bryce Eldridge L27%3 Casey Schmitt R24%4 Rafael Devers L25%5 Willy Adames R17%6 Jung Hoo Lee L7 Victor Bericoto R8 Eric Haase R9%9 Drew Gilbert L8%
ATH @ LAAneutral
Angel Stadium
9:38p Scheduled10 mph Cross L-R
72°
First pitch & venue
ATH @ LAA
Angel Stadium · 9:38p Scheduled
Weather
Sunny · 72°F · wind 10 mph Cross L-R
HR conditions ×1.02 · longer + greener = more carry
Parkstadium HR factor
1.02
WindCross L-R
1.00
Temperature72°F
1.00
Top HR plays in this gameMax Muncy ATH28%Shea Langeliers ATH27%Nick Kurtz ATH26%Zach Neto LAA25%Jorge Soler LAA13%
SP: Jack Perkins (R) vs Reid Detmers (L)
Current lineups & pitchers
tap any player or pitcher to see the matchup
18
players
ATH lineup · vs Reid Detmers (LHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Reid Detmers • LHP (LAA)
ATH @ LAA | vs ATH
3/5 W–L • 3.93 ERA (39th) • 104 Ks (12th) • 1.05 WHIP (15th)
0.7 HR/9 • 10% Barrel • 26% FB • 26% K • 3.93 ERA (H 4.50 / A 3.42)
▬ Holding steady
0.72
hittability
Pitcher summary
Reid Detmers carries a 0.70 HR/9 and gave up 0 last time out (1 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 1 to LHB (0.4/9), 6 to RHB (0.8/9).
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/21 6.0 IP · 90 P0 HR
06/16 7.0 IP · 90 P0 HR
06/10 7.0 IP · 89 P1 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty batsno clear target
Most likely to capitalize: Kurtz 26%, Soderstrom 13%, Butler 7%
vs righty batschange
Most likely to capitalize: Muncy 28%, Langeliers 27%, Bolte 8%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
10%
Fly ballsballs in the air
26%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
37%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.467
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
26%
ParkLAA
1.02
vs LHB · 0.7 HR/9 · 1 HR in 112 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
24%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
40%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.467
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
23%
ParkLAA
1.02
vs RHB · 0.8 HR/9 · 6 HR in 310 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
10%
Fly ballsballs in the air
27%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
37%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.492
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
27%
ParkLAA
1.02
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam44% used · 742 pit
3 HR
stuff
49%
swing & miss
17%
contact
83%
fly ball
28%
ground ball
35%
spin 10:50
slider31% used · 528 pit
1 HR
stuff
32%
swing & miss
33%
contact
67%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
49%
spin 3:47
curve11% used · 179 pit
0 HR
stuff
10%
swing & miss
38%
contact
62%
fly ball
33%
ground ball
17%
spin 4:53
change11% used · 178 pit
3 HR
stuff
38%
swing & miss
26%
contact
74%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
54%
spin 10:20
4-seam44% used · 189 pit
1 HR
stuff
49%
swing & miss
15%
contact
85%
fly ball
28%
ground ball
35%
spin 10:50
slider31% used · 174 pit
0 HR
stuff
32%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
49%
spin 3:47
curve11% used · 40 pit
0 HR
stuff
10%
swing & miss
41%
contact
59%
fly ball
33%
ground ball
17%
spin 4:53
change11% used · 6 pit
0 HR
stuff
38%
swing & miss
67%
contact
33%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
54%
spin 10:20
4-seam44% used · 553 pit
2 HR
stuff
49%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
28%
ground ball
35%
spin 10:50
slider31% used · 354 pit
1 HR
stuff
32%
swing & miss
35%
contact
65%
fly ball
32%
ground ball
49%
spin 3:47
curve11% used · 139 pit
0 HR
stuff
10%
swing & miss
36%
contact
64%
fly ball
33%
ground ball
17%
spin 4:53
change11% used · 172 pit
3 HR
stuff
38%
swing & miss
24%
contact
76%
fly ball
26%
ground ball
54%
spin 10:20
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home0.82430%4.50
Away0.54325%3.42
vs LHB0.70113%24%23%
vs RHB0.83610%27%27%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Henry Bolte R8%2 Nick Kurtz L26%3 Shea Langeliers R27%4 Tyler Soderstrom L13%5 Jonah Heim S5%6 Lawrence Butler L7%7 Max Muncy R28%8 Jeff McNeil L3%9 Alika Williams R5%
LAA lineup · vs Jack Perkins (RHP)
Opposing starter — tap for HR-hittability
Jack Perkins • RHP (ATH)
ATH @ LAA | vs LAA
2/3 W–L • 6.26 ERA • 57 Ks • 1.37 WHIP
1.1 HR/9 • 15% Barrel • 24% FB • 25% K • 6.26 ERA (H 6.23 / A 6.32)
▬ Holding steady
0.93
hittability
Pitcher summary
Jack Perkins carries a 1.14 HR/9 and gave up 1 last time out (4 over his last 3). HRs allowed: 3 to LHB (0.8/9), 2 to RHB (1.5/9). 6.26 ERA.
Last 3 starts · IP / pitches / HR
▬ Holding steady No big change in his home-run risk lately.
06/21 5.0 IP · 78 P1 HR
06/16 5.0 IP · 85 P1 HR
06/10 4.0 IP · 89 P2 HR
Pitches to target · go-deep pitches
The pitches he's given up the most homers on — and the bats most likely to punish them.
vs lefty bats4-seam
Most likely to capitalize: Walton 11%, Meckler 8%, Schanuel 6%
vs righty batscutter
Most likely to capitalize: Neto 25%, Soler 13%, Grissom 10%
HR hittability vs a league-average hitter · longer + greener = easier to take deep
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
15%
Fly ballsballs in the air
24%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
36%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.507
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
25%
ParkLAA
1.02
vs LHB · 1.1 HR/9 · 3 HR in 117 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
16%
Fly ballsballs in the air
22%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
40%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.523
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
27%
ParkLAA
1.02
vs RHB · 1.2 HR/9 · 4 HR in 119 PA
Barrel allowedloud-contact %
13%
Fly ballsballs in the air
25%
Hard-hit95+ mph allowed
36%
Contact damagexSLG allowed
.515
Low strikeoutsK% — fewer K = more contact
22%
ParkLAA
1.02
Pitch mix · stuff · HR rating · swing-and-miss · contact
4-seam38% used · 332 pit
2 HR
stuff
53%
swing & miss
16%
contact
84%
fly ball
38%
ground ball
23%
spin 1:29
sweeper32% used · 282 pit
2 HR
stuff
66%
swing & miss
36%
contact
64%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
28%
spin 7:54
change16% used · 138 pit
0 HR
stuff
30%
swing & miss
38%
contact
62%
fly ball
10%
ground ball
69%
spin 2:27
cutter9% used · 82 pit
1 HR
stuff
67%
swing & miss
23%
contact
77%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
44%
spin 12:58
4-seam38% used · 170 pit
2 HR
stuff
53%
swing & miss
12%
contact
88%
fly ball
38%
ground ball
23%
spin 1:29
sweeper32% used · 121 pit
1 HR
stuff
66%
swing & miss
45%
contact
55%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
28%
spin 7:54
change16% used · 111 pit
0 HR
stuff
30%
swing & miss
34%
contact
66%
fly ball
10%
ground ball
69%
spin 2:27
cutter9% used · 46 pit
0 HR
stuff
67%
swing & miss
29%
contact
71%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
44%
spin 12:58
4-seam38% used · 162 pit
0 HR
stuff
53%
swing & miss
19%
contact
81%
fly ball
38%
ground ball
23%
spin 1:29
sweeper32% used · 161 pit
1 HR
stuff
66%
swing & miss
31%
contact
69%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
28%
spin 7:54
change16% used · 27 pit
0 HR
stuff
30%
swing & miss
54%
contact
46%
fly ball
10%
ground ball
69%
spin 2:27
cutter9% used · 36 pit
1 HR
stuff
67%
swing & miss
18%
contact
82%
fly ball
19%
ground ball
44%
spin 12:58
Where he’s hittable · xSLG allowed by zone (vs RHB)
Green = he gives up slug there. Tap a band → out/mid/in cells → each pitch’s xSLG + a cyan contact-allowed bar. Cell splits use 2025–26; display only.
upworks 42% here · tap to split by cell
.330
up / out
.558
4-Seam 62%
.499
contact
67%
Cutter 11%
.325
contact
100%
up / mid
.250
4-Seam 52%
.240
contact
89%
Sweeper 36%
.263
contact
100%
up / in
.315
4-Seam 76%
.315
contact
64%
middle — over the heartworks 19% here · tap to split by cell
.490
middle / out
.524
Sweeper 46%
.321
contact
62%
middle / mid
.772
4-Seam 50%
.391
contact
69%
middle / in
.428
4-Seam 63%
.205
contact
100%
downworks 39% here · tap to split by cell
.631
down / out
.316
Sweeper 62%
.282
contact
49%
down / mid
.601
4-Seam 34%
.917
contact
100%
Sweeper 30%
.290
contact
90%
down / in
.358
4-Seam 33%
.517
contact
100%
Splits · home/away & batter hand
HR/9HRBarrelFB%K%ERA
Home1.48527%6.23
Away0.57129%6.32
vs LHB1.07316%22%27%
vs RHB1.25413%25%22%
HR = home runs allowed (season-to-date). ERA isn’t reported by batter hand, and barrel/FB% aren’t available by home/away — those cells show —.
1 Nolan Schanuel L6%2 Logan O'Hoppe R9%3 Wade Meckler L8%4 Jorge Soler R13%5 Christian Moore R6 Donovan Walton L11%7 Oswald Peraza R8%8 Zach Neto R25%9 Vaughn Grissom R10%
Likelihood-first board. Even the top plays hit ~1-in-5 — most miss by design. Confirm lineups & odds at lock; bet within your means.