2026-06-27 · 15 games · tap a row for the full breakdown
Batters to target tonight — ranked by the Target score: the model’s P(HR) likelihood blended with Matchup-Fit, Air/Park & Recent form. Higher Target = better overall HR bet. Tap a card for the why.
1 Cal Raleigh SEA
vs Slade Cecconi RHP · CLE · P(HR) 28%
Target90
Matchup84
Air/Park98
Form74
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Slade Cecconi’s arsenal
4-Seam 43% usedbarrels 14% · allows 4% · 2 HR
Curve 21% usedbarrels 0% · allows 10%
Cutter 11% usedbarrels 10% · allows 4% · 1 HR
Sinker 9% usedbarrels 29% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Change 9% usedbarrels 18% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 34% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×0.97 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 8% · EV 91 · 1 HR over his last 5.
2 Dominic Canzone SEA
vs Slade Cecconi RHP · CLE · P(HR) 28%
Target89
Matchup87
Air/Park61
Form84
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Slade Cecconi’s arsenal
4-Seam 43% usedbarrels 11% · allows 4% · 3 HR
Curve 21% usedbarrels 11% · allows 10% · 1 HR
Cutter 11% usedbarrels 11% · allows 4% · 1 HR
Sinker 9% usedbarrels 9% · allows 5% · 1 HR
Change 9% usedbarrels 0% · allows —
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 20% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×0.97 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 10% · EV 88 · 1 HR over his last 5.
3 Kazuma Okamoto TOR
vs Cal Quantrill RHP · TOR · P(HR) 29%
Target88
Matchup77
Air/Park96
Form66
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Cal Quantrill’s arsenal
Sinker 29% usedbarrels 9% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Cutter 19% usedbarrels 0% · allows 7%
Splitter 15% usedbarrels — · allows — · 1 HR
4-Seam 14% usedbarrels 10% · allows — · 4 HR
Slider 13% usedbarrels 17% · allows — · 2 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 27% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×1.14 × wind out to LF (6 mph) ×1.02 → net ×1.17 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 7% · EV 94 · 3 HR over his last 5.
4 Dillon Dingler DET
vs Kai-Wei Teng RHP · DET · P(HR) 25%
Target88
Matchup96
Air/Park88
Form66
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Kai-Wei Teng’s arsenal
Sweeper 45% usedbarrels 21% · allows 3% · 3 HR
4-Seam 25% usedbarrels 19% · allows 14% · 1 HR
Sinker 23% usedbarrels 2% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Curve 5% usedbarrels 17% · allows — · 1 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 23% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×1.10 × wind out to LF (7 mph) ×1.02 → net ×1.13 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 7% · EV 94 · 2 HR over his last 5.
5 James Wood WSH
vs Brandon Young RHP · BAL · P(HR) 29%
Target84
Matchup81
Air/Park26
Form81
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brandon Young’s arsenal
4-Seam 50% usedbarrels 8% · allows 11% · 5 HR
Splitter 25% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Curve 16% usedbarrels 14% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 11% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×1.24 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 9% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
6 Kody Clemens MIN
vs Michael Lorenzen RHP · MIN · P(HR) 28%
Target84
Matchup82
Air/Park49
Form64
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Lorenzen’s arsenal
Change 26% usedbarrels 5% · allows 7%
4-Seam 25% usedbarrels 5% · allows 19% · 2 HR
Curve 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 8%
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 20% · allows 5%
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 5% · allows 0%
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 19% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×0.92 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 6% · EV 89 · 0 HR over his last 5.
7 Kyle Manzardo CLE
vs Logan Gilbert RHP · CLE · P(HR) 24%
Target84
Matchup94
Air/Park80
Form78
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Logan Gilbert’s arsenal
4-Seam 34% usedbarrels 6% · allows 17% · 2 HR
Slider 32% usedbarrels 40% · allows 7% · 1 HR
Splitter 18% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Cutter 6% usedbarrels 8% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Change 5% usedbarrels 0% · allows 0%
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 24% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×0.97 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 8% · EV 89 · 1 HR over his last 5.
8 Curtis Mead WSH
vs Brandon Young RHP · BAL · P(HR) 23%
Target84
Matchup94
Air/Park82
Form88
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Brandon Young’s arsenal
4-Seam 35% usedbarrels 8% · allows 11% · 1 HR
Slider 25% usedbarrels 18% · allows 5%
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 10% · allows 4% · 2 HR
Curve 11% usedbarrels 20% · allows — · 1 HR
Splitter 10% usedbarrels — · allows —
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 22% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 13% · EV 90 · 3 HR over his last 5.
9 Willson Contreras BOS
vs Gerrit Cole RHP · BOS · P(HR) 27%
Target82
Matchup92
Air/Park71
Form0
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Gerrit Cole’s arsenal
4-Seam 58% usedbarrels 3% · allows 17% · 1 HR
Slider 30% usedbarrels 18% · allows — · 3 HR
Sinker 11% usedbarrels 11% · allows — · 4 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 26% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×0.82 × wind out to LF (10 mph) ×1.03 → net ×0.85 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
10 Pete Alonso BAL
vs Foster Griffin LHP · BAL · P(HR) 29%
Target81
Matchup91
Air/Park47
Form0
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Foster Griffin’s arsenal
Cutter 32% usedbarrels 20% · allows 9%
4-Seam 18% usedbarrels 0% · allows 27% · 1 HR
Change 16% usedbarrels 6% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Sweeper 10% usedbarrels — · allows 18%
Curve 10% usedbarrels 0% · allows 7%
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 16% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×1.09 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 0% · EV 87 · 1 HR over his last 5.
11 Trevor Richards CWS
vs Michael Wacha RHP · CWS · P(HR) 27%
Target80
Matchup68
Air/Park72
Form66
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Michael Wacha’s arsenal
Sinker 23% usedbarrels 2% · allows 5% · 1 HR
4-Seam 21% usedbarrels 19% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Slider 20% usedbarrels 10% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Change 15% usedbarrels 0% · allows 13% · 2 HR
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 17% · allows 11% · 1 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 23% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×0.98 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 7% · EV 94 · 2 HR over his last 5.
12 Julio Rodríguez SEA
vs Slade Cecconi RHP · CLE · P(HR) 25%
Target80
Matchup88
Air/Park35
Form66
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Slade Cecconi’s arsenal
4-Seam 35% usedbarrels 10% · allows 15% · 2 HR
Sinker 19% usedbarrels 3% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Slider 17% usedbarrels 4% · allows — · 2 HR
Cutter 14% usedbarrels 7% · allows 4%
Curve 10% usedbarrels 0% · allows 17%
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 17% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×0.89 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 7% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
13 Casey Schmitt SF
vs Bryce Elder RHP · SF · P(HR) 24%
Target80
Matchup70
Air/Park87
Form97
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Bryce Elder’s arsenal
Sinker 54% usedbarrels 0% · allows 4% · 1 HR
Slider 36% usedbarrels 13% · allows 8%
Change 5% usedbarrels 40% · allows 0% · 2 HR
4-Seam 5% usedbarrels 7% · allows 0% · 2 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 27% of contact in the air; pull side LF here — park HR factor ×0.95 → park+wind neutral fit.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 19% · EV 95 · 1 HR over his last 5.
14 Carter Jensen KC
vs Davis Martin RHP · CWS · P(HR) 23%
Target80
Matchup74
Air/Park87
Form88
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Davis Martin’s arsenal
4-Seam 33% usedbarrels 10% · allows 0% · 4 HR
Change 29% usedbarrels 0% · allows 2%
Curve 11% usedbarrels 12% · allows 20%
Slider 10% usedbarrels 8% · allows —
Cutter 9% usedbarrels 27% · allows 5% · 4 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 22% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×1.13 → park+wind fits his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 13% · EV 91 · 2 HR over his last 5.
15 Max Muncy LAD
vs Randy Vásquez RHP · SD · P(HR) 29%
Target76
Matchup64
Air/Park73
Form0
Matchup-Fit · barrel alignment vs Randy Vásquez’s arsenal
4-Seam 31% usedbarrels 8% · allows 6% · 6 HR
Cutter 23% usedbarrels 25% · allows 0% · 3 HR
Curve 19% usedbarrels 12% · allows 5%
Change 14% usedbarrels 4% · allows 6% · 1 HR
Sinker 6% usedbarrels 13% · allows 0% · 1 HR
Air / Park · can he get it out here
Pulls 27% of contact in the air; pull side RF here — park HR factor ×0.80 × wind out to RF (9 mph) ×1.03 → net ×0.83 → park+wind fights his pull power.
Recent form · last 5 games
Barrel 0% · EV 91 · 0 HR over his last 5.
Likelihood-first board. Even the top plays hit ~1-in-5 — most miss by design. Confirm lineups & odds at lock; bet within your means.